This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.
Quarterback
Russell Wilson
Top 200 ranking: 7
Weekly ranking: 14
Difference: -7
The savvy Seattle quarterback will get a solid opponent this week as the Seahawks travel to San Diego to meet the Chargers. The San Diego defense has the talent to keep Wilson in the pocket and limit Percy Harvin's explosiveness. We do not expect this to be a high-scoring contest. Each team will look to run the ball effectively, and not get behind early.
Matthew Stafford
Top 200 ranking: 5
Weekly ranking: 12
Difference: -7
Stafford and the Detroit offense is coming off a monster outing against the New York Giants last Monday evening. The high-flying Lions will have a much more difficult task on their hands this week as they travel to Carolina to meet the Panthers. The Carolina defense is stout, shutting down the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a week ago. The Panthers have one of the more disciplined defenses, not allowing big plays. Last week, Vincent Jackson, Mike Evans, and Doug Martin were all kept in check. We do not expect the Detroit passing offense to throw at will like Monday.
Running Back
Jamaal Charles
Top 200 ranking: 4
Weekly ranking: 10
Difference: -6
The Chiefs are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Titans at home and now have to travel to Denver to meet the Broncos. This is a difficult matchup for the Kansas City running game, and the talented back may get most of his yardage through the air. We expect Denver, just like all Kansas City opponents, to focus on stopping Charles and making Alex Smith beat them through the air.
Reggie Bush
Top 200 ranking: 18
Weekly ranking: 28
Difference: -10
The Carolina Panthers have a strong defense, especially against the run. This will be a stiff test for the Lions running game on the road. Just like with Stafford above, we see the receiving-oriented back finding little room to make big plays against the Panthers.
Shane Vereen
Top 200 ranking: 16
Weekly ranking: 23
Difference: -7
The Patriots were unable to establish the running backs in the game plan last week in Miami and now travel to Minnesota. The Vikings rush defense stopped the Rams running attack a week ago and will look to slow down Vereen and company. Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer is a defensive-minded coach and will have a plan to slow down Vereen and the Patriots short passing game.
Wide Receiver
Michael Floyd
Top 200 ranking: 12
Weekly ranking: 20
Difference: -8
Floyd and the Arizona passing game travel to New York to meet the Giants. While the Giants defense was torn up against the Lions on Monday evening, we expect the Coughlin-coached squad to show some heart this week. Floyd is still a solid fantasy WR2 and should not be benched. We are just cautioning that expectations need to be tempered.
Keenan Allen
Top 200 ranking: 16
Weekly ranking: 25
Difference: -9
Allen was not able to get much going against the Cardinals late Monday night and now will face the Seahawks exceptional defense. Whether it is Richard Sherman or another Seattle defender, we expect the Chargers to struggle throwing the ball. This looks to be a low-scoring, ball-control type of game with few passes down the field for the Chargers.
Brandon Marshall
Top 200 ranking: 6
Weekly ranking: 17
Difference: -11
Marshall and the Bears travel to San Francisco to meet the 49ers. San Francisco played well against the pass last week, limiting Tony Romo and the Cowboys through the air. Dez Bryant was shut down, even in garbage time, last week. We expect Marshall to have plenty of attention from the San Francisco defense. Also, keep an eye on Marshall's practice attendance. He was nicked up last Sunday.
Tight End
Jason Witten
Top 200 ranking: 7
Weekly ranking: 11
Difference: -4
The Cowboys travel to Tennessee to meet the upstart Titans this week. Tennessee will look to limit the times Romo passes the ball in Witten's direction. In addition, Witten's upside will depend on whether Romo can rebound and play much better than last week.
Travis Kelce
Top 200 ranking: 17
Weekly ranking: 23
Difference: -6
Kelce and the Chiefs face will have a still divisional test this week in Denver. Expect the Broncos to limit one of the only play-makers on the Kansas City offense. We love the outlook for the second-year tight end. However, he still splits snaps with veteran Tony Fasano, and should continue to do so. Kelce is a player who holds much higher value in dynasty leagues than redraft, and this week is a poor matchup for him to emerge as the starter.
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