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Is Jimmy Graham worth drafting with a top-six pick in a PPR league starting two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and a RB/WR/TE flex? Why or why not?
Alex Miglio: As someone who has repeatedly drafted Graham in the first round this offseason, I feel compelled to answer here. Clearly my answer is a resounding yes. Owning Graham gives an incredible advantage at tight end like you will find at no other position, making him a VBD darling. I have also been able to find solid value at other positions in the middle rounds that make up for the fact I didn't take an elite running back or wide receiver. Graham should continue to be a focal point for a powerful New Orleans offense, and his consistent output should be coveted in PPR leagues.
Jeff Pasquino: In the first round, there is not much upside but there is plenty of downside risk. Running backs "bust" in the first round at an alarming rate, but elite tight ends are more consistent. Grabbing Jimmy Graham after the top four backs are gone or your best wide receiver is a solid strategy. The difference in scoring that you are likely to have between Graham and most other owners' tight ends in their starting lineup is huge, and that can easily offset any other roster deficiencies. I would consider Graham as early as pick five or six, depending on how close I felt Calvin Johnson was to a WR2 projection. I'd be fine starting off with Graham from the 1.05 spot.
Heath Cummings: Absolutely! I wouldn't take him over Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy or Calvin Johnson but I'm fine with him as early as #4 in PPR leagues, especially those that allow a second tight end as a flex. The last two seasons Graham has scored over 540 PPR fantasy points. Jason Witten is the only other active tight end to top 400.
Andy Hicks: Top 6 is probably right at the edge of where I'd consider him in the first round. I personally would have Charles, McCoy, Forte, Peterson, Calvin Johnson and Eddie Lacy ahead of him and would take them in a heartbeat over Jimmy Graham in all leagues except those that have 1.5 points per reception for tight ends.
So a direct answer would be NO as to take him in my first 6, but top 7 yes.
Some will have Graham ahead of Peterson, Lacy and Johnson, but to me Graham has just a slightly greater element of risk and competition for the top slot as Jason mentioned. I'd be much happier taking Lacy, Peterson or Johnson and then coming back with Julius Thomas or Jordan Cameron a couple to 3 rounds later at the 6 slot.
Jason Wood: He's worth the selection, and I would consider him in the first round. BUT (there's always a but)...I think some people have romanticized his value. In 12-team PPR formats, Jimmy Graham was excellent but this idea that his value is so much greater than anyone else's is simply erroneous. Graham finished 5th among all players in X-value last year (12-team PPR format), behind Jamaal Charles, Peyton Manning, LeSean McCoy and Matt Forte. Josh Gordon was only three points behind Graham. In other words, you were better off taking the QB1 early than the TE1, even if you knew with 100% certainty who those players would be. And you were equally as well off taking the top WR as you were grabbing Graham. And three RBs were still worth more than Graham.
Simply put, if you end up drafting the #1 at ANY position, it's going to be worth its weight in gold. Some will counter with the idea that Jimmy Graham is a lock to repeat as TE1, while other skill players at other positions don't have the same certainty. Yet Peyton Manning has been a top 5 fantasy QB in TEN OF SIXTEEN seasons, and he's been a top 10 fantasy QB in ALL SIXTEEN SEASONS (aside from the missed 2011 season). THAT is the very definition of certainty. I could easily see a healthy Gronkowski or Denver's Julius Thomas or even Cleveland's Jordan Cameron pushing Graham. Does anyone see Manning being outscored by another QB?
It's perfectly rational to draft Graham in the first round of PPR formats, but it's NOT a no brainer as many have us believe. He's an elite talent, and should return value commensurate with his place atop his position. But HIS value over replacement is not any better than that of the QB1 or RB1 or WR1 when the dust settles.
Adam Harstad: I'm not sure anyone be the teensiest, tiniest bit surprised if Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees scored more fantasy points than Peyton Manning this year? It's true that in 2013 Peyton Manning had the most fantasy points of any quarterback in history. It's equally true that Drew Brees' last three years rank 2nd, 9th, and 11th in history. Manning's second-best fantasy season, his scorched-earth 2004 campaign, checks in at 12th overall. Since 2011, Drew Brees has averaged 27.1 fantasy points per game, while Peyton Manning has scored 26.8 and Aaron Rodgers has scored 26.3. There's just not much- if any- separation between those three guys at the top.
According to FantasyPros, 90 out of the 125 experts who have submitted their preseason rankings for evaluation have Peyton Manning as the #1 fantasy QB, a remarkable 72% consensus. That's huge. At tight end, though, 120 out of 125 experts have Jimmy Graham as the #1 player at his position, for a near-unanimous 96% consensus rate. That's crushing. If your only goal with your first-round pick was to get the guy who was most likely to finish the year #1 at his position, Jimmy Graham is without question that guy.
Here's another way to look at Jimmy Graham:
Over the last three years, Jimmy Graham ranks 3rd among all wide receivers and tight ends in fantasy points per game (behind only Calvin Johnson and Rob Gronkowski). In PPR scoring, he falls to fifth behind Brandon Marshall and Wes Welker. Last year, Josh Gordon, Demaryius Thomas, and Calvin Johnson were the only receivers to score more fantasy points than Jimmy Graham. A fully healthy Demaryius Thomas in the most prolific passing offense in league history topped a hobbled Graham by just seven points. Since breaking out in 2011, Graham has basically produced at an identical rate to A.J. Green. According to Footballguys consensus ADP data, Green is currently carrying a late first-round ADP in redraft. If A.J. Green had tight-end eligibility, that would certainly make him more valuable, no? Remember the big brouhaha this offseason over whether Jimmy Graham would lose his TE eligibility in fantasy? It was abundantly clear that the ability to start him at the tight end position was an incredibly valuable asset. Just how valuable is it? Is it valuable enough to move a guy from a late-1st round asset to an early-1st round asset? In my mind, it is. If A.J. Green had TE eligibility, I would draft him in the top 6 picks... so since Jimmy Graham is basically just A.J. Green with TE eligibility, I think he's worth a top-6 draft pick. Albeit just barely. I wouldn't select him over Charles, McCoy, Forte, or Peterson, just because of positional scarcity among RBs. I wouldn't select him over Calvin Johnson, because he's Calvin Johnson. But with the #6 pick, I'd rather walk away with Jimmy Graham than a guy like Eddie Lacy or one of the 2nd-tier receivers (who, as I mentioned, are basically just Jimmy Graham without that super-valuable TE eligibility.)
I was less on board with the idea of using a high 1st round pick on Graham a month ago when Rob Gronkowski was consistently lasting to the 3rd round. I would have rather had a high 1st round RB or WR and Gronkowski in the 3rd than Jimmy Graham in the 1st and whatever RBs/WRs were left on the board in the 3rd. With the recent positive reports about Rob Gronkowski, his ADP is climbing enough that I think Jimmy Graham at the 6th pick is starting to make a lot of sense.
Maurile Tremblay: Yes. In the first round, I don't want to gamble: I want sure things. Unfortunately for me, there are no sure things in fantasy football. But Jimmy Graham is about as close as they come.
Jimmy Graham is a superb athlete, a skilled receiver, in one of the most prolific passing offenses in the NFL.
Ten years ago, nobody drafted tight ends in the first round regardless of their projected VBD. You could get Tony Gonzalez in the fourth round, or Shannon Sharpe in the fifth, or Todd Heap in the sixth. In part because receiving tight ends have become more prominently featured in teams' passing offenses, and perhaps in part because of the increased popularity of VBD, it is now common for the top tight ends to be considered by the end of the first or beginning of the second round. But that's still too low for Jimmy Graham this season. He's a legit mid-first-rounder. Relieve yourself of the idea that only RBs and WRs are worth considering before the end of the first round. It's no longer true. The top QB and the top TE can make as big a difference to a team's success as the top RBs and WRs.
I'd start giving serious consideration to drafting Jimmy Graham as early as the fourth pick, after Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, and Calvin Johnson.
Dan Hindery: Graham sits in the sixth spot in my PPR rankings (behind Calvin Johnson and the "Big 4" at RB), so the answer for me would be yes.
Elite RBs are still the most valuable commodity in fantasy football and that is borne out by the VBD calculations. For me, there are four RBs that I feel confident enough about that I would take them over Jimmy Graham. Jamaal Charles, Lesean McCoy, Adrian Peterson and Matt Forte all have a combination of safety and upside that I value higher than the top TE.
To steal a turn of phrase from Sigmund Bloom, I also wouldn't try to talk you out of drafting a player like Demarco Murray, Eddie Lacy or Montee Ball ahead of Jimmy Graham if you are very confident in their success. Personally, there are enough questions surrounding that next tier of runners that I would opt for Graham ahead of them. I would not be at all surprised if one or more of those RBs ended up being more valuable fantasy players than Graham in 2014 though.
The biggest drawback to drafting Graham early is that there is great TE value available late in the draft. I am extremely high on Tyler Eifert for example. Eifert is going off the board in the 14th round as the 19th TE but it is entirely realistic that he puts up stats similar to Jordan Cameron's 2013 numbers. Of course, one could draft Graham and trade a TE like Eifert (or use him as a flex) if he blows up, but in some ways it is just easier to wait on TE and grab two upside plays late while drafting your RB1 or WR1 in the first. The strongest case against Graham in the first is the ease with which one should be able to acquire solid TE production (with upside) vs. the difficult nature of finding solid RB production (with upside) later in the draft.
Mark Wimer: As Jason rightly points out, any of the elite fantasy players at their position are in the mix to be the top overall fantasy player in the league. NOBODY is a sure lock to end up #1 overall.
Graham is certainly worth a first round pick, but Don't get obsessed with the notion of having him to the exclusion of other top prospects. If Graham goes before your pick just move on to another potential #1 overall and proceed undisturbed.
Matt Harmon: Everyone has already made a ton of great points here, so I'll add the nail in the coffin. Not only was Jimmy Graham outrageously productive, far and away the highest scoring tight end, last year but he did it all while not being fully healthy. Graham was on an even better pace before a plantar fasciitis injury began to take its hold. The All-Pro tight end was hampered by the injury all season, and was never looking right. NFL media man, Ross Tucker, said that Graham told him he was playing at well under 100% last season. By all accounts he's looking at full speed in training camp, and is dominating in preseason games.
So remember, any projections that have Graham falling way under his 2013 numbers are probably underestimating him. He's bound to outscore himself from last season, and that's going to give you an even bigger return than the dominant effect he had on teams last year. With the way he can tilt your team's fortunes, the sixth overall pick should be Jimmy Graham's floor.
Dan Hindery: Matt, I think it is a great point that Graham's pace slowed considerably after being injured last year. He was on pace for a monstrous season. He clearly has even more upside than what we have seen from him so far if he can stay healthy for 16 games. However, the fact that Graham is already going into year 5 but has not reached his true ceiling also points out a shortcoming with Graham.
While Graham's injuries have not been as serious as Rob Gronkowski's, they have unfortunately been a somewhat regular occurrence. We have seen Graham limp across the finish line in multiple recent seasons. He comes flying out of the gates healthy in the first half of the season and puts up massive numbers, but when the fantasy playoffs arrive, a banged up Graham does not provide the big advantage one would think. In 2012, Graham averaged 12 PPG (PPR) in weeks 14-16. In 2013 he was a bit better, with 15 PPG from week 14-16. Even going back to Graham's monster 2011 season, he still only averaged 15 PPG during the fantasy playoffs.
There are a couple ways to view the late season numbers. The first assumes that past is prologue and that Graham will provide a huge advantage early in the season, but by late in the year the wear and tear will leave him as a solid but unspectacular fantasy playoff performer. The second is to assume that a player of Graham's caliber is due for some luck with regards to health and that this will be the year that Graham will be a major factor in the fantasy playoffs, perhaps winning you your league.