Taking into account their ADP, which rookie running back is most appealing to you this season?
Jeff Pasquino: This is a great question. I've been a huge supporter of Devonta freeman all offseason, and I think that he takes over for Steven Jackson earlier rather than later this year. His ADP is creeping up though, so his price point is asking quite a bit. I would have to consider other direct backups like Ka'Deem Carey (very cheap ADP of 223) and Charles Sims in Tampa Bay (ADP of 186), but the back that probably has the best blend of value from ADP and upside is probably Andre Williams with the Giants (ADP of 173), but his ADP may climb quickly.
Heath Cummings: With the age of Frank Gore and the 49ers emphasis on the run game I'd have to go with Carlos Hyde. I don't expect Hyde to get out of the gates as well as some of the other backs but come playoff time he may be the best of them all. Like Jeff said about Andre Williams, I'd anticipate Hyde's ADP (currently 126) to rise quickly as he impresses in camp. He has virtually zero competition for the backup role and Gore is 31 years old. That ADP is lower than Terrance West (104), Jeremy Hill (114), and Devonte Freeman (116) and Hyde has the clearest path to a significant workload of all those backs.
Jason Wood: I agree with Jeff on Freeman. I've been singing Freeman's praises all offseason, and even have him projected for more fantasy points than Steven Jackson. Unfortunately Jackson's lingering injuries have turned others on to Freeman's upside, so the value isn't quite what it used to be. One RB I've been beating the drum for is Andre Williams -- and he can still be had in the 10th round or later. I think betting on Rashad Jennings is risky at best. He's a 29 year old journeyman with roughly half an elite season under his belt. Yet we're to believe he's going to take the Giants job and never let up? Sorry. I hear so many people talk about what Andre Williams can't do (catch) and not what he can do (run with power, shed blockers, score touchdowns).
Andy Hicks: At the risk of appearing obvious I have to go with Bishop Sankey. With an ADP of RB20 you will have to pay a higher price than with Devonta Freeman, Carlos Hyde, Andre Williams, Terrance West, Jeremy Hill etc , but if he is anywhere near half decent he will exceed 250 carries. I guess that is the crux of the issue though with Sankey, he has an awful lot of detractors who can analyze game film, physical measurables or astrological charts and come up with reasons he will be a failure, but Tennessee appears to be happy to go all in with him.
Shonn Greene will be given the appearance of a challenger to playing time, but seriously, Shonn Greene? Dexter McCluster is a gadget player who will look great for a couple of plays, but can't handle a big workload. He's a 172 lbs so I can't see him doing too much in the backfield.
Sankey has the number one thing required for a rookie running back, opportunity. He has plenty of positives as a running back and was the number 1 back taken in the 2014 draft. All the other guys mentioned have veterans who will clearly start ahead of them until they won't. How long until Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Rashad Jennings, Ben Tate, Giovani Bernard etc give way, if at all? Barring an incredible meltdown, injury or Shonn Greene playing like Barry Sanders, Sankey will open the season as the lead back for Tennessee.
Dan Hindery: I see Terrance West as the best value of the rookie RBs. It comes down primarily to a lack of trust in Ben Tate's ability to stay healthy and a general belief that Tate is not as entrenched as the #1 guy as many believe. Tate's contract was surprisingly small which indicates there was very little market for his services. He received a good deal less than Donald Brown for example. Yet there is a view by the general public that Tate is a far superior talent to Brown.
I also like the upside of the Cleveland running game. The starting OL is very good. Assuming Manziel gets in there at some point, his mobility will keep the defense honest and open up lanes for the running back the same way Robert Griffin III's legs made life easier for Alfred Morris as a rookie. Not coincidentally, Kyle Shanahan is the OC here as he was in Washington when Morris emerged out of nowhere to rush for 1,600 yards as a rookie. Overall, the risk/reward makes West worth the risk in the 9th round or so.
Steve Buzzard: Some of the main things I look at when trying to identify backup running backs applies to this year's running backs too since so many of them aren't starting the year. Another attribute that I like to add for rookies is their draft pick because it tells us how badly the team wanted the player, and in reality opportunity is over half the battle. In general I like rookie running backs because they have fresher legs and are trying to earn that first big contract so I will tend to draft more of them than most teams. I like Devonta Freeman, Carlos Hyde, Terrance West, and Bishop Sankey and agree with them for all the reasons mentioned above. That said a couple of other guys I am liking are:
James White: First of all the starter, Ridley, is already on a short leash due to fumbles last year. This essentially give White three ways to value since injuries to Vereen or Ridley would also both give White good value. The Patriots offense should be improved with a healthy set of receivers. This will give plenty of opportunities for scoring and extra plays. The Patriots also have one of the better offensive lines making this a plug and play offense at the running back position. I see him higher than his ADP of RB54.
Charles Sims: The Bucs new coaching staff used a third round pick on Sims which in today's NFL draft is a high price. This makes me believe that they want Sims involved. Additionally, Martin is coming off of a torn labrum and is a higher than normal injury risk. If Martin were to go down with another injury I think Sims would get a very heavy workload and have a ton of upside. I see him higher than his ADP of RB59.
Alfred Blue: The final guy that I want to mention is Alfred Blue. Blue is not being drafted but in the largest of leagues so I would add him as a deep flyer. The Texans and their new coaching staff cut all of their running back depth and signed street free agents mid preseason. At the time they cut all these players Arian Foster was not 100% healthy and probably never will be. This makes me believe the coaching staff really likes their newly drafted RB Blue and are comfortable using him if need be. Blue isn't going to overtake Foster any time soon but Foster is very injury prone and if Foster goes down Blue could get a very heavy workload given the lack of talent around him.
Dan Hindery: I want to echo some of Steve's thoughts on both James White and Alfred Blue, two other great targets late.
New England has been pretty fickle with the RB position with guys falling in and out of favor. White has been getting extremely positive reviews and is the type of player coaches love. He may not have extreme physical gifts, but he pass blocks well, has great hands and has the mental acuity to quickly pick up the complicated Patriots offensive scheme. With Stevan Ridley in and out of the doghouse and Shane Vereen regularly banged up, White could quickly ascend the depth chart. Even without injuries, he should have a role in the offense as he hit the field in the first quarter of the last preseason game. Always a good sign that a player is in the game plan going forward.
Alfred Blue has been a personal favorite and I had grabbed him in the final round of four separate staff mocks in August even before the Andre Brown news broke. With all due respect to Jonathan Grimes, I see Blue as clearly the most talented back on the Houston roster not named Arian Foster. Blue is purely a handcuff, unlike some of the other guys mentioned so it doesn't make sense to get too aggressive in drafting him. He is certainly worth rostering in deeper leagues though as Foster has had a crazy amount of touches the last 4 years which seem to be taking their toll on him physically.
Mark Wimer: Bishop Sankey is a likely starter, I agree, but his asking price (#23 RB as of August 15 ADP) is much higher than my ranking of him (#33) so I don't like him as "most desirable rookie".
Jeremy Hill would be one of my answers here - I have to disagree with Andy that Hill has Giovani Bernard "in front of him". Hill has overtaken BenJarvus Green-Ellis as the Bengals' "grinder" back and he'll get plenty of work as part of their 1A/1B committee approach with Bernard. The Bengals' coaches are devoted to running back by committee, and as such Hill has one of the clearest paths to fantasy points from day one this season, in my opinion, and his ADP of #39 is close to my ranking of #44.
For dynasty league purposes, throw another check into Devonta Freeman's column - though he has had rookie growing pains in training camp, the big factor here is that Steven Jackson is on the sidelines (with ANOTHER long-drawn-out hamstring injury) while Freeman has been in the coaches' eyes throughout August. After waiting for Godot - I mean, Jackson - almost all season last year, the Falcons have GOT to be looking for a better option so Freeman may well be in action sometime during in the year. He's got redraft value too, but not as much as Hill because it may take several weeks for the Falcons to fully install Freeman into the starting lineup. By 2015 I expect Freeman to be the Man in Atlanta's backfield.
Outside of the above three guys, the other rookie backs have guys in front of them that MAY go down/be demoted by losing the coaches' confidence but most of the rookies are likely to stay in supporting/bit roles this season in my opinion. Many may be in action at some point (injuries are always a factor in the NFL) but it's impossible to predict with any degree of certainty which veterans will fall by the wayside during 2014. Also, as the right ankle injury/surgery to Charles Sims (out 12-14 weeks as of August 15) reminds us, the rookies are also subject to injuries while waiting their turn.
Phil Alexander: He may not be the most appealing rookie RB for 2014, but I feel obligated to add Jerick McKinnon's name to this discussion. The third rounder out of Georgia Southern measured as the best athlete in this year’s scouting combine, and it’s at least conceivable he lucks his way into a substantial role this season.
Adrian Peterson is 29 years old, an age at which decline should be expected. Over the last three years, he’s suffered a torn ACL, a high ankle sprain, a mid-foot sprain, and had two groin surgeries. For those counting at home, that’s a lot of lower body injuries over a very short span.
If Peterson were to go down, all indications are Matt Asiata would be named Minnesota’s starter. That would be the same Matt Asiata who needed 30 carries to gain 51 yards in week 16 against Detroit, and the same Matt Asiata who is currently averaging 2.5 YPA running behind the Vikings’ starting offensive line this preseason.
How long would it take Minnesota to make the switch from a known plodder to a guy who ran a 4.41-second 40-yard dash, had a 40.5-inch vertical jump, broad-jumped 11 feet, and bench pressed 225 pounds a preposterous 32 times?
Probably as long as it takes McKinnon to adjust to the pro-game, and learn the nuances of the RB position (he didn't play tailback until his senior year after playing both cornerback and quarterback in college). To that end, McKinnon has made big blocking plays downfield this preseason, drawn praise from teammates and coaches for his ability to pick up pass protection, and “grabbed attention with his athleticism every day in training camp”.
If McKinnon can continue to make plays (especially without the ball in his hands), he’ll pass Asiata on the depth chart sooner than later. Should that happen, he’s one injury away from becoming the featured runner in Norv Turner’s offense. Norv’s schemes, you’ll recall, have always favored versatile backs who catch passes out of the backfield (one of McKinnon’s strong suits).
I’m not suggesting you go out of your way to draft Jerick McKinnon this season - he probably shouldn't be taken in typical 12 team redraft leagues. However, if it appears he’s in line for significant touches at any point during the year, drop what you’re doing, get to a WIFI hot spot, and feverishly tap the add button. Big plays will ensue.
Chad Parsons: Bishop Sankey. His has the look of an early-career Ray Rice in preseason action and has excelled in the passing game in the preseason. Sankey is one of the cheaper RB2-level options in drafts and fits the mold of historically undervalued RB1 producers preseason (young, high NFL draft pick, low starter ADP).
James Brimacombe: With the NFL's direction of RBBC approaches it is tough to find a plug and play rookie RB in this year's class. Bishop Sankey probably has the edge for best opportunity out of all the rookie RB's and has a decent skill set to be a fantasy relevant option right out of the gate. I see him as more of a low end RB2 but would feel better if I had him rostered as flex play each week and maybe bumped him to RB2 status depending on matchups.
For long term, Carlos Hyde is very interesting in that 49ers offense. It is no secret that Frank Gore has been playing in the league a long time and with all the mileage over his career the wheels might fall off at anytime. Hyde would be the guy in San Francisco and not only would he have the opportunity to put up similar numbers to Gore, he could surpass those and actually offer a little more upside.