A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. This article specifically targets deep sleeper value (players that can be found very late in a fantasy draft). In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look deeper than the top 150 players and identify players that should significantly outperform their late draft position. These players should be your targets after the 12th round of your draft.
Players with 6 Votes
Doug Baldwin, Sea
Sigmund Bloom: The Seattle passing game is going to revolve around Percy Harvin, but for how long? Harvin’s durability record is dubious, and Baldwin is the receiver with the best previous production and existing chemistry with Russell Wilson. Wilson might also be ready to spread his wings more as a passer this year, which could create bye/injury/emergency value in Baldwin even if Harvin plays 16 games.
James Brimacombe: Sidney Rice is now retired, Golden Tate now in Detroit, and Percy Harvin more of an all around weapon, Baldwin is the forgotten man and is a nice WR3/flex play to have on your team to help with bye weeks and matchups.
Steve Buzzard: Baldwin seems to be the forgotten guy this year with Harvin back from injury. But last year Baldwin finished as WR38 playing the same #2 role to Golden Tate who has moved on. While Harvin will demand more balls than Tate I also expect the Seahawks to pass more often to make up for this. At the end of the day I see Baldwin continuing what he did last year getting about the same number of catches, a few more TD’s with a little lower yardage total. He also has some extra upside if (when?) Harvin gets hurt again. He’s a great plug in play WR3 that you can get for next to nothing in your draft.
Heath Cummings: Baldwin’s ADP is way out of whack with reality. He’s the #2 option in a Seattle passing attack that looks like it will be more prolific than it was in 2013. Baldwin has the trust of Russell Wilson and the speed and elusiveness to make big plays happen. With all of the attention on Percy Harvin Baldwin should be a solid WR4 at the worst.
Matt Harmon: Doug Baldwin is going criminally late in fantasy drafts. He proved countless times last season that he is more than just a slot receiver. Baldwin was the recipient of a few big plays due to Russell Wilson’s improvising. He makes tough catches in traffic, and has reliable hands. Percy Harvin will probably be fed the most, but he really struggles to stay healthy. Baldwin is already set for a good amount of targets, and could thrive if Harvin is forced to miss more games. The former undrafted player will at least match Golden Tate’s statistics from last season.
Jason Wood: Baldwin has caught 50+ balls and 750+ yards in his two healthy seasons, and the Seahawks signed him to a multi-year extension in the offseason. With Sidney Rice retiring and Percy Harvin’s injury history, Baldwin has a top 40 floor and could push into the top 25 in PPR formats if the Seahawks loosen the reins to allow Russell Wilson to throw more.
Harry Douglas, Atl
Jeff Haseley: Harry Douglas saw his role increase last year, mostly due to injuries to Julio Jones and the early season ineffectiveness of Roddy White (also injury related). Douglas did not disappoint with ten games of five receptions or more. He will be the team's third wide receiver in 2014 and should see a lot of targets as he gained the confidence of Matt Ryan last season. He will also help pick up the targets for the departed Tony Gonzalez. Douglas is a forgotten man in fantasy drafts, dropping outside of the Top 150, but I doubt he finishes there in 2014.
Andy Hicks: Harry Douglas stood up manfully during the meltdown of the Falcons offense last year. Julio Jones and Steven Jackson were injured, Roddy White played injured or underachieved and now Tony Gonzalez has retired. Don’t expect White to pick up where he left in 2012 though, he is now 33 and while the departure of Gonzalez will see targets go elsewhere. Douglas is a good chance to at least return to a 1000 yard season and be much better value than the riskier White who will be drafted much higher.
Stephen Holloway: Harry Douglas led the Falcons in receiving in 2013 as Julio Jones missed 11 games and Roddy White missed 3 and played through injury in many others. Both of these players return for the Falcons, but Tony Gonzalez has retired and the team may use three wide receivers more often, while reducing the involvement of the tight end. Douglas has played five years with the team and is comfortable with Matt Ryan. He probably will not match last year’s 132 targets, 85 catches, or 1,067 yards, but he finished as WR22 in ppr scoring leagues, giving him plenty of room to out-produce his current ADP.
Jeff Pasquino: Atlanta is very likely to have a base formation of 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers). With the running game firmly in last place in 2013, the Falcons are a pass first team. Now that Tony Gonzalez has retired, the tight end position is being minimized to a blocker to protect Matt Ryan. That means the third target (after Julio Jones and Roddy White) will be Harry Douglas, who should see a ton of opportunity and upside.
Kyle Wachtel: With the retirement of Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta plans to strictly use in-line tight ends, which allows for Douglas to step into a starting role as the WR3. While he won't near the 85 receptions he posted last year with both Julio Jones and Roddy White healthy, 60 is completely realistic. If either of those two receivers suffer an injury, then Douglas is back in the five receptions per game conversation.
Jason Wood: Harry Douglas has never cracked the Top 30 in five NFL seasons, but shouldn’t be a forgotten man on draft day. He’s coming off his first 1,000-yard season thanks to injuries to both Roddy White and Julio Jones. While both are healthy again, the loss of Tony Gonzalez looms large. Atlanta is going to have to use 3-WR sets with more regularity and the porous Falcons defense is going to require a continuation of Matt Ryan’s prolific passing attempts. In PPR formats Douglas should rate as a serviceable flex option at worst.
Player with 5 Votes
Andre Holmes, Oak
Sigmund Bloom: Holmes flashed against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving last year, and he is currently battling for a starting spot in the Oakland offense. He isn’t worth drafting if he’s not starting, but if he does in Week 1 or at any point this season, Holmes could make noise as a similar size/speed threat to Justin Hunter.
Heath Cummings: Holmes was a solid option in the second half with Matt McGloin and in theory he’s seen an upgrade at quarterback. The addition of James Jones doesn’t look like it will impact Holmes playing time and there’s no one on the team with a larger catch radius. The Raiders look like a team that may be playing a lot of catch up and that could make Holmes a garbage-time hero.
Matt Harmon: he Raiders gifted secret is one of the last number one wide receivers you can get in fantasy drafts. Andre Holmes has shown the speed, ups and ball skills to be a real threat if he can be consistent. Oakland doesn’t have a stable quarterback situation, but someone is going to catch passes there. Holmes seems to be the favorite coming out of camp. He’s a nice talent and someone who has worked hard for this opportunity. Look out for a surprise season from Andre Holmes.
Jeff Haseley: Holmes is starting to gain some ADP steam since the announcement of his place among the starting receivers for Oakland. Holmes has a great size/speed combination that wasn't fully utilized last year with Terrelle Pryor at quarterback. Matt Schaub will be able to get him the ball down field, which will elevate his game. If he gets regular targets on a weekly basis, he could work his way up to a flex starter.
Ryan Hester: The recent love affair with many fantasy analysts and tall receivers is a real thing, and it has legs. Holmes is a 6’4” 210 pound specimen who showed in flashes last year what his ceiling might be. He’s been practicing with the first-team throughout camp despite the team’s free agent acquisition of James Jones. The quarterback situation isn’t the best in the league, but Matt Schaub sustained Andre Johnson’s fantasy value for many years in Houston. Though his ADP is rising, Holmes still has a long way to move up before he wouldn’t be considered a bargain.
Players with 4 Votes
Kenny Britt, StL
Andy Hicks: Kenny Britt is the ultimate swing for the fences late pick. Amazingly he will still only be 25 when the season starts and there are lingering memories of his start to the 2011 season when he recorded 14 receptions for 271 yards and 3 touchdowns in his opening 2 games. That was then and this is now though and he by all intents and purposes is on his final chance in St. Louis. If he is good enough he could earn significant playing time and be a fantasy steal. Of course he could play like he did in Tennessee last year and be cut before the start or during the regular season.
Stephen Holloway: Britt has a lot of talent, but has not made the most of it thus far in his NFL career. He has played five seasons and never caught more than 45 passes. He has had only one season where he played all 16 games. His career yards per reception of 15.6 ypc and his 19 TDs reveal some of the underlying talent. Pre-season reports have been positive and if he puts things together, he could far exceed his cost.
Kyle Wachtel: Reunited with the head coach that drafted him, Jeff Fisher, Britt is now another year removed from his 2011 ACL tear and poised to open the season as the Rams #1 receiver. There is plenty of opportunity to lock down a large market share in the receiving corps and he has WR3 upside at a WR5/6 price tag.
Matt Waldman: Despite a rough start with a video camera during NFL Draft weekend, Britt has behaved and performed well with his new team. If Sam Bradford stays healthy, this WR-QB tandem should be good enough that Britt can deliver a minimum of WR2 fantasy production. Health and good behavior are the only factors of concern.
Andrew Hawkins, Cle
Sigmund Bloom: Jordan Cameron (and Josh Gordon if he plays) will get all of the attention from the defense, but Hawkins will be the one flashing open early in plays against favorable matchups in the slot. He could rack up PPR value and has the open field prowess to even some looks on end arounds and WR screens.
Jeff Haseley: Someone is going to have to catch balls in Cleveland besides Jordan Cameron. The diminutive Hawkins is projected to be a big contributor on offense, along with Miles Austin. We know what Austin is capable of, but Hawkins ceiling is yet to be determined, which is why I like him as a sleeper.
Jeff Pasquino: Andrew Hawkins switched teams (Cincinnati) but stayed in the AFC North, joining Cleveland. Hawkins inked a 4-year, $13.6M deal in March and he was supposed to be the second receiver behind Josh Gordon, but with Gordon likely suspended for at least half of this upcoming year, Hawkins could be the best target outside of tight end Jordan Cameron.
Mark Wimer: Hawkins has worked his way into a starting gig for the Browns. If Hoyer or Manziel (or some combination of both) play adequately this year, Hawkins should post top-36 numbers, but he can be had well outside that range in most drafts right now. I prefer Hawkins over Miles Austin who is a hamstring injury waiting to happen at this point in his career.
Cody Latimer, Den
Sigmund Bloom: Latimer was a second-round pick, and he could be ready to produce big numbers as soon as he is called in the potent Denver pass offense. Latimer has the speed to be a deep or run after catch threat, and the size to be a red zone threat. All it will take is an injury to Wes Welker or Emmanuel Sanders, who have troubling injury histories.
Jeff Haseley: Consider Latimer a star in the making or a dormant volcano waiting to explode. He is blocked by Wes Welker for the moment, but if Welker gets hurt or suffers another concussion, Latimer will burst onto the scene putting up similar numbers that will send fantasy owners flocking to the waiver wire, or if you take my advice, your bench. Keep him in the wings until his time comes, because when it does, you'll want him on your team.
Andy Hicks: While Cody Latimer isn’t expected to be in the first 4 targets for the Denver Broncos to start the year he could very well get his chances as the year develops. While many will see a bigger role for Latimer in 2015, and that may be true, he doesn’t exactly have to have much go wrong for an opportunity this year. Wes Welker is in the final year of his contract and at age 33 may not be the player he once was. Emmanuel Sanders comes from Pittsburgh and looks to step into Eric Decker’s role, but he is no sure thing either. At a very cheap price you could be getting a Peyton Manning receiver come the fantasy playoffs. A good player to stash deep on your roster.
Chad Parsons: Cody Latimer is worth a shot as an upside play in a Peyton Manning offense. Emmanuel Sanders and Wes Welker are better on the inside and there is no other prototypical outside receiver on the roster to play opposite of Demaryius Thomas.
Players with 3 Votes
Miles Austin, Cle
Ryan Hester: While Austin does have significant injury history, he has shown that when he’s playing, he producing. For a player being selected as WR69, getting just a couple of WR3/flex games out of him would be a bargain. Whether or not Josh Gordon is suspended, Austin will be on the field for Cleveland. He’s basically free capital at this point in fantasy land.
Kyle Wachtel: Austin is on the wrong side of 30 with recurring hamstring troubles. A receiver in Cleveland will have to step up though and he is set up to get the first chance as the split-end, which has been a gold mine for targets in the offense that Kyle Shanahan runs.
Matt Waldman: So far, so good with Austin's hamstrings. The veteran has devoted a lot of time to maintaining his legs to prevent injuries this off season. If it works, there has never been any question about his ability and the Browns afford Austin an opportunity to be the WR1 in this offense. Based on where you can get him, how do you not take a shot on a player who you don't have to draft as a starter, but could offer strong WR2 production if the quarterback play is decent? Remember, Josh Gordon was a top-3 option with Jason Campbell last year.
Marqise Lee, Jac
Ari Ingel: Lee is a dynamic talent that fell in the draft due to a poor, injury plagued, final year at USC. But he has been impressive in camp so far and they have him lining up all over the field. With Cecil Shorts and Allen Robinson both dealing with lingering injuries, Lee has been dominating first team reps in camp and they plan on getting him the ball in a variety of ways. He is a solid candidate to lead all rookie receivers in catches and yards.
Kyle Wachtel: Lee will enter the season as no worse than Jacksonville's #2 receiver and has been acting as the #1 receiver during Cecil Short's absence. It wasn't long ago that he was considered a first round draft pick and he may very well already be the best receiver on the Jaguars roster. Factor in Short's injury history and the opportunity for Lee to lead his team and all rookie receivers in catches becomes very real.
Jason Wood: Normally I don’t get caught up in the rookie receiver hype, but Lee’s situation looks enticing. Cecil Shorts has a grade-2 strain and a checkered injury history and Justin Blackmon isn’t seeing an NFL field this year. Based on sheer volume of targets and lack of alternatives, I see Lee delivering a handful of big games and finishing in the WR3/WR4 tier.
Rod Streater, Oak
Heath Cummings: In PPR leagues Streater probably has the most upside of all the Raiders receivers. Streater runs better routes than Denarius Moore or Andre Holmes and has more upside than James Jones. He could very easily be a WR3 if Matt Schaub can hold this offense together in Oakland.
Jason Wood: Streater is running as a starter in Oakland, and had 60 receptions for 888 yards and 4 touchdowns last year – his second season. Streater is the classic “Year 3 breakout” candidate especially if the Raiders can keep Matt Schaub upright. Schaub may not be a star but he’s always been capable of delivering the ball to his outside receivers.
Mark Wimer: Rod Streater posted a surprising 60/888/4 receiving last year despite erratic quarterbacking by the Oakland platoon - Terrelle Pryor and Mike McGloin, mainly. With Matt Schaub in town to stabilize the quarterback position, the Raiders' attack could be on the rise. If Streater wins the starting job across from James Jones, he could be headed for a 1,000+ yards-receiving campaign. He's worth a late-round pick this year.
Player with 2 Votes
Jerricho Cotchery, Car
Matt Waldman: The former Jet and Steeler is a fine pro with a strong feel for defenses and reliable hands. Cotchery will provide a consistent presence for Cam Newton as an underneath target. Don't be surprised if Cotchery approaches career-highs in reception totals -- even if his yardage isn't spectacular.
Mark Wimer: The Panthers have a dire need for veteran leadership as Kelvin Benjamin tries to get up to NFL speed. Jerricho Cotchery had 10 TDs last year (a career-best) and he's what the Panthers have got to throw at - Cotchery could catch enough TDs again this year to make him a viable #3 fantasy wide receiver (or a quality bye-week fill-in).
Players with 1 Vote
Odell Beckham, Jr., NYG
Stephen Holloway: Beckham is an exceptional athlete and a perfect fit for the Giants offense, which should feature a lot of short quick throws. He has missed a lot of the pre-season practices with a lingering hamstring injury and has fallen off most folk’s radar.
Marlon Brown, Bal
Adam Harstad: Brown was arguably better as a rookie undrafted free agent last year than new addition Steve Smith, so I don’t know why everyone is so quick to write him out of the picture in Baltimore. Brown is a big target, as his 7 touchdowns last year (on 49 receptions) will attest, and at just 23, he should still be improving as a player.
Malcom Floyd, SD
Jeff Pasquino: San Diego’s second wide receiver spot is open to competition, or so it seems. Malcom Floyd had the spot all locked up last year until a brutal injury in September sidelined him for the year. Phillip Rivers had a fantastic season in 2013 and is primed for another big year this season. Floyd should see a good amount of targets as teams focus on stopping Keenan Allen, giving Floyd opportunity to perform as a sleeper wideout.
Charles Johnson, Cle
Chad Parsons: Charles Johnson is metric-favorite with his enviable athleticism and top-shelf college production. Despite the uncertain Browns wide receiver depth chart, Johnson is going largely ignored in redraft leagues. Miles Austin is the best option and has not been a fantasy factor in years. Andrew Hawkins is a slot receiver and no threat to Johnson on the outside.
Steve Johnson, SF
Mark Wimer: Johnson (28 when the season starts) will get a crack at starting opposite Michael Crabtree in San Francisco, for one of the up-and-coming elite quarterbacks in the NFL (Colin Kaepernick). If Anquan Boldin hits the over-30 wall this year, Johnson could surprise us with a big bounce-back campaign in San Francisco. He's worth a late-round pick.
Lance Moore, Pit
Jeff Pasquino: I fully expect the Steelers to run a three wide receiver base offense. Offensive coordinator Todd Haley wants Ben Roethlisberger to run a hurry up offense more, and with three viable wide receivers on the outside (Antonio Brown, Markus Wheaton and rookie Martavis Bryant), the one sleeper spot is the slot receiver, who will be Lance Moore. Last year Jerricho Cotchery played that role and scored 10 touchdowns. Moore may be on the back half of his career, but he has a lot of upside in the Pittsburgh offense to rack up 45-50 catches and a half dozen touchdowns, as he has a great nose for space in the Red Zone.
Paul Richardson, Sea
Matt Waldman: The rookie from Seattle isn't a starter yet and the Seahawks like to use a rotation of options that will include Jermaine Kearse and Doug Baldwin. However, Richardson's play making in practice has become a matter of routine since he first set foot on the field. Pete Carroll told the media during the draft that the team would use Richardson as a rookie and he believes that the receiver already runs pro-caliber routes. So far, everything is panning out as expected and Richardson's athleticism and consistency should earn him more time as the season progresses. Don't be surprised if Richardson becomes a big-play threat and a low-end fantasy WR3 down the stretch.
Kenbrell Thompkins, NE
Ari Ingel: After making noise as a rookie in camp last year, many Fantasy owners spent a high draft pick on Thompkins only to be disappointed with the results. While he definitely did struggle at times last year, he also made a number of great plays, such as this 20-yar touchdown grab from Tom Brady in October to beat the Saints with ten seconds left in the game. Once again Thompkins is turning heads in camp. The usually tight-lipped Bill Belichick stated that he was a “hard working kid” and one of the teams “hardest workers.” Tom Brady then noted that Thompkins "works his tail off" and possesses a contagious competitiveness that "just elevates the rest of the team." On the first day of camp he also beat All-Pro cornerback Darrelle Revis for a touchdown. While there is a lot of competition at camp, Julian Edelman is a diminutive slot receiver, Danny Amendola has never been able to stay healthy, Brandon LaFell has been inconsistent, and second year receiver Aaron Dobson is still trying to work his way back from foot surgery. While he is no lock, there is clearly a path to relevance for Thompkins who’s ADP is essentially undrafted, especially since the NE base offense is playing in a 3WR set.
Mike Williams, Buf
Ryan Hester: Why do we have to scroll all the way to the bottom of the PPR ADP list for receivers to find the best red zone threat on a team that ranked third in total plays per game in 2013? He has shown a nice rapport with EJ Manuel so far this preseason, and his ability to catch touchdowns is proven, with an 11 touchdown and a nine touchdown season to his credit.
Robert Woods, Buf
Stephen Holloway: Robert Woods played second fiddle to Steve Johnson as a rookie in 2103, but he caught 40 passes for 587 yards and scored 3 TDs. Johnson left and the team traded considerable resources to move up to draft Sammy Watkins, so Woods is likely to remain the second most targeted wide receiver. He could even share some of his looks with new comer Mike Williams. The good news is that Buffalo is planning to run an up-tempo offense this year and it should be a better fit for EJ Manuel. More production for the Buffalo offense will provide Woods more opportunities to improve on his rookie season when he finished as WR60.