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A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. This article specifically targets deep sleeper value (players that can be found very late in a fantasy draft). In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look deeper than the top 150 players and identify players that should significantly outperform their late draft position. These players should be your targets after the 12th round of your draft.
Player with 7 Votes
Andre Williams, NYG
Heath Cummings: Williams has had an impressive camp and looks to be at least part of the rotation in New York. He has more upside than Rashad Jennings and that should translate to a larger piece of the pie as the season wears on.
Andy Hicks: Andre Williams doesn’t need for much to happen to get significant playing time in 2014 with the retirement of David Wilson. The Giants brought in free agent Rashad Jennings who has had half a good year out of 5 complete seasons. At age 29 the Giants will be hoping, but not expecting to get something out of that deal. That leaves the 4th round rookie Williams who has been used a lot in preseason to move into a significant role.
Stephen Holloway: Andre Williams is suddenly the primary back-up for Rashad Jennings following the retirement of David Wilson. Williams is a decent athlete who could see a lot of carries during his rookie campaign. He is not known to be a good receiver, but he should see some goal line opportunities.
Ari Ingel: Andre Williams is a big boy at 5’11” 234 pounds, and has very good speed for his size. While he is still a bit raw and won’t do anything in the passing game, he could score a lot of Touchdowns. He hits the holes hard, has a good vision and is a load to bring down. Rashad Jennings also isn’t the most durable running back and certainly not elite. It would not be surprising if Williams ended the season as a top 25 back in standard leagues.
Jeff Pasquino: Williams was drafted in Round 4 this year by New York to help out in a committee backfield. The Giants just lost David Wilson for the year, and Peyton Hillis has looked terrible. The rookie looked impressive in the Hall of Fame game, scoring a touchdown in his debut – right where he left off from college as he scored 18 touchdowns last year with Boston College. The young back will get the goal line work for the Giants, making Williams a solid contributor to the New York committee approach.
Kyle Wachtel: David Wilson's injury combined with the opening preseason game have sent Williams rocketing up draft boards, so it may be only a matter of time before he is no longer a value. If you are able to secure him late, as the undisputed number two back, Williams would be in line for substantial snaps if Rashad Jennings were to miss time and become a strong RB2.
Jason Wood: Many of my fellow staffers dislike Williams and point to his woeful receiving skills as a reason to steer clear. While Williams isn’t going to be confused for Darren Sproles anytime soon, he is a powerful runner who finished as a Heisman finalist last year. When I look at Williams run on film, I see no reason he can’t thrive in Ben McAdoo’s system. Rashad Jennings looked like a journeyman until his semi-impressive run as the starter in Oakland last year – and Williams has been given the goal-line carries in the preseason. The depth chart isn’t nearly as daunting as some would have you believe.
Players with 5 Votes
Bryce Brown, Buf
Sigmund Bloom: Im not really a Bryce Brown believer because of his penchant for going to the corner store in Waldmanese, not to mention a ball security issue. Yet I’m still drawn to him in later rounds because the Bills have a high volume running game and he has two paths to injury value. The Bills had the most rushing attempts in the league last year, so Brown would get a piece of a big pie if opportunity knocks.
James Brimacombe: I haven't heard a bad thing about Brown all offseason and the Bills were one of the top running teams in 2013. Brown looked good behind McCoy in Philadelphia and now with a more legitimate shot at seeing more carries in Buffalo he could surprise. If Spiller struggle like last year, it would be Brown that would come in and give the team a boast.
Heath Cummings: Brown’s looked decent in camp, but his opportunity is what makes him so enticing. C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson have both battled injuries over the past few years and this offense is going to use two backs. If either running back goes down Brown should get a chance to prove his worth and a significant role in the offense.
Jeff Haseley: The Bills quietly added Bryce Brown in the draft from the Eagles and don't be surprised if they use him more than you might think. Fred Jackson is another year closer to retirement and Brown brings a tough blend of power and elusiveness, which fits Doug Marrone's offense. C.J. Spiller is not signed after this year, which leads me to believe that Brown may be in their plans for 2015 and beyond. If that's the case, they will want to get a good look at their investment this year.
Mark Wimer: Brown is in perfect position to ascend into a meaningful committee member in Buffalo - Fred Jackson is ancient while C.J. Spiller is fragile - Brown could easily be seeing fantasy-worthy work by the end of September.
Knile Davis, KC
Steve Buzzard: Knile Davis is the perfect example of a high upside backup RB. If Charles were to get injured Knile would take over a lead back role very similar to Charles. We all saw that he continued to get the ball fed to him in the playoff game against the Colts last year to the tune of 25 touches. He wouldn’t be nearly as good as Charles and the Chiefs offense wouldn’t be as explosive either. But, I can’t think of any other player with the opportunity to move up from outside the top 150 to the top 20 any quicker.
Heath Cummings: The Chiefs' plan is to overuse Jamaal Charles and they’ve said as much. Some are projecting 350 touches and there are very few people that think that’s far off. Davis is one injury away from a high volume situation and his elite speed makes that enticing. He should be near the top of the handcuffs on your draft board.
Jeff Haseley: I like Davis as a late round flier, not just because of his ability and talent, but also because the Chiefs feel like he can be an adequate replacement for Jamaal Charles if he is forced to miss time. The Charles role on the Chiefs offense is a commonly used centerpiece where the benefit is a boat load of fantasy production. Davis is a must-have handcuff for Charles, but he's also a good RB5 or RB6 to have in the event his number is called.
Stephen Holloway: Knile Davis is an excellent athlete that fell to the 3rd round last year due to health concerns and a college fumbling issue. His speed was evident with his kick-off returns, but he managed only a 3.5 ypc on his 70 rushing attempts. It is worthy to note that Davis had 48 of his 70 carries over the final four regular season games. He should again be the primary back-up behind Jamaal Charles and likely see more action than in his rookie season. Charles has averaged 270 rushing attempts the past two seasons, by far the highest usage of his career. The team might look to spell him a little more often this year and work Knile Davis into the mix.
Jeff Pasquino: Knile Davis is the clear backup to Jamaal Charles, and he is already practicing well despite a broken leg injury in the playoffs last January. Charles had an incredible workload last year (almost 22 touches a game and playing over 87% of the snaps), and head coach Andy Reid has spoken about reducing Charles’ playing time to keep him fresher. That speaks to some upside for Davis, who would become a strong feature tailback if Charles missed any time.
Lance Dunbar, Dal
Sigmund Bloom: Dunbar has struggled with ball security and injuries in the past, but he has also flashed a terrific burst. The Cowboys organization seems excited about him, and Dunbar is playing for an offensive mind in Scott Linehan who fed two backs in the passing game in Detroit last year. The injury upside if Demarco Murray goes down only enhances the attractiveness of Dunbar in the late rounds.
David Dodds: DeMarco Murray has played all 16 games exactly 0 times. Last year he had a career high of 14 games. Dunbar has solid skills and could flourish on Dallas should Murray get hurt. This late in the draft, you are just looking to throw educated darts.
Ryan Hester: New offensive coordinator Scott Linehan has a long history of utilizing his backs in the passing game, and Dunbar’s skill set works best as a passing-down back. Add in the recent reports of Jason Garrett saying that DeMarco Murray would be best used as a committee back, and even more attention has been paid to Dunbar. He could see 50 or more receptions even in a season where Murray is fully healthy.
Kyle Wachtel: Scott Linehan has admitted to having plans for Dunbar, who is a smaller back in the vein of Jahvid Best. Joique Bell was a viable RB2 last season under Linehan and although Dunbar won't have the goal-line carries, he would be a serviceable RB3 as the backup. DeMarco Murray's injury history is well-known though and Dunbar would instantly become a borderline RB1 in PPR leagues if Murray was to miss time.
Mark Wimer: Demarco Murray is not a paragon of health, so Dunbar could very quickly end up with lead running back duties for the Dallas offense. Even though Dallas will likely be in chase position fairly often due to their pathetic D, you can't throw on every down in the NFL. Dunbar is worth a late-round flyer-type pick.
James White, NE
Steve Buzzard: James White is the type of upside I am looking for in my late round picks. The starter, Ridley, is already on a short leash due to fumbles last year. The Patriots offense should be improved with a healthy set of receivers which will give plenty of opportunities for scoring and extra plays. The Patriots also have one of the better offensive lines making this a plug and play offense at the running back position. Some are afraid that Bill Belichick’s unpredictableness makes this a messy situation. But when you are talking about the running back way down on the bottom of the totem pole unpredictablness makes for opportunity.
Matt Harmon: The more White plays in the preseason the harder it becomes to call him a sleeper. The rookie running back seems to quickly be earning the trust of the New England coaching staff. White can do a little bit of everything; replacing Stevan Ridley on early downs and Shane Vereen on passing downs. Should one of those tow players go down with injury, or end up in the dog house, White stands inherit a nice role in a good offense. The way the preseason is going, he could have stand-alone value.
Ryan Hester: White recently received first-team snaps in camp, which is a sign that the team is already entertaining the idea of using him in that capacity. He’s a Shane Vereen injury and/or a Stevan Ridley fumble away from getting significant touches. Both of those things have happened multiple times in the recent past.
Jeff Pasquino: Fourth round rookie James White is getting a lot of buzz in New England camp this year, putting some heat on Stevan Ridley. White looks to be the direct backup to both Ridley and also Shane Vereen, and White is capable of contributing on all three downs. The Patriots love to run the ball, especially if they have a lead in the second half. White may appear buried on the depth chart, but things change fast in the NFL, especially with Bill Belichick’s Patriots.
Jason Wood: Preseason can be more noise than signal, particularly with a coach like Bill Belichick. Yet, we know the Patriots are not beholden to any particularly player (other than Tom Brady). No one expected BenJarvus Green-Ellis to produce…until he did. No one though LeGarrette Blount would matter last year, until he was the workhorse down the stretch into the playoff push. James White has gotten reps with the 1st team, has the requisite vision and balance to handle a full workload, and plays behind a starter (Ridley) that continues to fumble away his opportunities.
Players with 1 Vote
Alfred Blue, Hou
Steve Buzzard: Bill O’Brien wants to run the ball as much or more than most every team this year and the Texans have an aging superstar as their lead back. O’Brien also cut all of their running back depth and signed street free agents mid preseason. At the time they cut all these players Arian Foster was not 100% healthy and probably never will be and Blue’s only real competition was Jonathan Grimes. Clearly this run first coaching staff has some confidence in the guy they brought in during the sixth round of this last draft. Blue isn't going to overtake Foster any time soon but Foster is very injury prone and if Foster goes down I believe it will be Blue, not Grimes, which could get a very heavy workload given the lack of talent around him.
Ka'Deem Carey, Chi
Matt Waldman: I like the Bears' offensive line, the way defenses have to react to the Chicago passing game, and Carey's skills as an interior runner. The rookie has a clear path to Matt Forte's job if the veteran gets hurt. Like Blount, I'll take my shot with Carey late.
Shonn Greene, Ten
Stephen Holloway: Greene had offseason knee surgery and was mostly written off after the Titans drafted Bishop Sankey in the second round. He has had steady production over his five BFL seasons and averages almost 13 carries per game and 4.1 ypc. He has scored 22 TDs. He could be more a part of an RBBC than most expect. He suffered a hyper-extended knee in the August 15th pre-season game against New Orleans, but should be ready for the season opener.
Jonathan Grimes, Hou
Kyle Wachtel: Is Grimes a special talent? Perhaps not. However, he is the number-two behind an injury riddled Arian Foster. The opportunity to lead a run-first attack is enough to plant him on your radar near the beginning of the handcuff rounds.
Roy Helu, Was
Jeff Haseley: We know that Jay Gruden likes to involve his running backs in the passing game and since Alfred Morris is not exactly suited for that role, someone will have to step up and handle those duties. My best guess is that will be Roy Helu. In the even of an injury to Morris, Helu can step in and occupy the backup role and be a threat as a receiver. His versatility is a perfect mix for Gruden's offense. At RB65, Helu is a very good late round RB to target.
Ronnie Hillman, Den
Mark Wimer: Ronnie Hillman could be a member of a by-committee backfield in Denver if he gets over his fumblitis. Owning a piece of the Broncos' offense (and Hillman is a good receiver out of the backfield) is worth a late-round pick. He's hung onto the ball during preseason while Montee Ball is sidelined recovering from an appendectomy - Hillman is a sneaky late round pick who could pay big dividends.
Dexter McCluster, Ten
Sigmund Bloom: The year that Jamaal Charles went down, McCluster actually averaged 4.5 yards per carry on over 100 carries. He is a good receiver out of the backfield, but perhaps miscast as a slot receiver in Kansas City. Ken Whisenhunt’s offense allowed Danny Woodhead to take off last year. While the case for McCluster might not be as strong as the case for Woodhead was last season, McCluster is dirt cheap and worth the ticket price of one of your last picks in a PPR league.
Chris Polk, Phi
James Brimacombe: Obviously Polk is more of a handcuff as he plays behind one of the top backs in the NFL in LeSean McCoy, but the fact that the Eagles trusted him enough to trade away Bryce Brown shows that he will have a role on the team and if McCoy ever were to go down he would be an instant top 10 RB each week.
James Starks, GB
Chad Parsons: James Starks has looked good in preseason action and Eddie Lacy has had his share of injuries in college and the NFL. Starks is one of the more overlooked primary backup running backs in fantasy.
Stepfan Taylor, Ari
Chad Parsons: Stepfan Taylor is the ultimate hedge play at running back this season. What if Andre Ellington is not the 20-touch-per-week back that has been projected all offseason? Taylor has a good shot at the goal line looks given to Rashard Mendenhall last year at a minimum.
Robert Turbin, Sea
Adam Harstad: Christine Michael has all the hype (and an ADP within the first 10 rounds). Robert Turbin will have to content himself with a spot ahead of Michael on the depth chart and the likelihood that he’ll lead the Seahawks in carries if Marshawn Lynch gets hurt.