A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. This article specifically targets deep sleeper value (players that can be found very late in a fantasy draft). In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look deeper than the top 150 players and identify players that should significantly outperform their late draft position. These players should be your targets after the 12th round of your draft.
Player Receiving 7 Votes
Jonathan Stewart, Car
Sigmund Bloom: Yes, he has been hurt more often than not over the course of his career, but Stewart is ubertalented, and he is actually healthy in the offseason for the first time in a while. The Panthers backfield will be split four ways, but Stewart has enough passcatching and big play ability to be a good flex play if he is at full speed. He could be even more if DeAngelo Williams fades or gets hurt.
Heath Cummings: Stewart is as healthy as he's been in a long time and in case you didn't notice this team has a terrible receiving corps. The last 2 times Stewart has played 16 games he's averaged more than 1200 yards and 8 touchdowns. DeAngelo Williams isn't exactly elite competition, which makes Stewart worth a flyer late on the off chance he can enter the season healthy.
Adam Harstad: A lot of fantasy owners get emotionally invested in their roster, and they will spend years shunning players who have burned them in the past. Jonathan Stewart has been a tease for so long that there are few owners left who haven’t been burned by him yet. As they say in the investing world, past results are no guarantee of future performance. Stewart is still talented, still in his prime, healthier than he’s been in years, and could easily through performance or injury ahead of him on the depth chart find himself in a position to carry Carolina’s ground game.
Jeff Haseley: It's hard to believe that Jonathan Stewart is outside of the Top 150. He has developed a reputation for not being a durable option in Carolina's offense, but heading into the season, he is finally healthy. DeAngelo Williams is on the other side of 30 and Stewart is still only 27 years old with plenty of football left in him. If he shows good burst and the ability to move the pile like he has in the past, he could see an increase in touches this year and potentially leap ahead of Williams on the depth chart.
Andy Hicks: Jonathan Stewart finally is in a position to be fantasy value. Seasons of disappointment, injury and running back by committee have failed to build on his promising 2nd season. At age 27 he will be the youngest of the main 3 running backs for the Panthers and at his current draft slot presents little or no risk. The Panthers don’t seem to need receivers after letting their top 4 from last year go and with Cam Newton around to keep defenses on their toes, expect whoever lines up in the backfield to get plenty of work, Stewart included.
Kyle Wachtel: His ADP indicates that the public has finally given up on his tantalizing potential. Although there is worry that the past injuries have sapped at his explosiveness, he is only 27 years old and as healthy as he's been since the 2011 season.
Mark Wimer: When a rookie wide receiver (Kelvin Benjamin) is your team's best hope of fielding a legitimate #1 wide receiver, your team's best bet is to lean heavily on the running game and the defense in order to win your games. The Panthers have three solid ball carriers in Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams and Cam Newton - look for all three to use their legs extensively this year, especially in the first half of the season while Benjamin gets up to NFL speed. Stewart has been working on increasing his durability for 2014 - he may be able to play out a full string of games, and the chance of that happening makes him a worthwhile 'flyer' pick for 2014.
Players Receiving 4 Votes
Bryce Brown, Buf
Sigmund Bloom: Brown was acquired for a third or fourth-round pick, which is about the price of running backs who get a chance to contribute early on when they are taken there as rookies. Brown is actually only signed for two more years, so the Bills must intend on giving him a solid role in the most run-happy offense in the league. If CJ Spiller or Fred Jackson break down, Brown could easily get 250+ carries this year, and he’ll have enough work to get his foot in the door either way.
James Brimacombe: The Bills had the top all-around running game in the league last year with the combo of C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, now with Brown they have some extra power and leverage. Brown has shown spurts over his first two seasons in the NFL that he can handle an every down RB role. With 190 career rushes Brown has rushed for 878 yards and 6 touchdowns.
Jeff Haseley: The Bills quietly added Bryce Brown in the draft from the Eagles and don't be surprised if they use him more than you might think. Fred Jackson is another year closer to retirement and Brown brings a tough blend of power and elusiveness, which fits Doug Marrone's offense. Jackson is in the last year of his contract, so you might guess that Buffalo will want to see what they have in Brown as they prepare for the future.
Bob Henry: The Bills run a lot of plays and they acquired Bryce Brown for a reason. The Bills volume allows both Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller to yield RB2 value, but if either back succumbs to injury Brown instantly becomes a top 25 back in all formats. With Jackson’s age and Spiller getting closer to free agency, Brown has good short-term sleeper appeal and long-term dynasty appeal as a potential starter and top 20 back if he stays in Buffalo and flourishes in Marrone’s system.
Ka'Deem Carey, Chi
Joe Bryant: I love Matt Forte and don't have see anything that worries me about his 2014 season. But if we're looking for guys with high ceilings, Carey is a guy I like. He won't be a big threat to a healthy Forte but we all know the nature of injuries in this league and Carey's a guy that could shine if thrust into the spotlight. He doesn't have elite speed, but he does most everything else very well.
Jeff Pasquino: Ka’Deem Carey is directly behind Matt Forte, but he was regarded as the top RB pre-draft by several publications and it is hard to argue against his touchdown production while at Arizona (42 rushing TDs in the past two seasons). Carey is also great at pass blocking and has good hands, meaning that there are two roles he can immediately carve out for himself - 3rd down back and goal line option (which is what Michael Bush used to do). He had 62 catches and two scores as a receiver as well, so I can see PPR value here with Chicago loving to throw more often. Even if Forte stays healthy all season, I think Carey gets plenty of work and adds fantasy value.
Matt Waldman: The Bears’ offensive line played quality football last year and while I like Shaun Draughn as a third back to challenge Michael Ford, Carey has every-down starter talent. If you own Matt Forte and can afford a handcuff or you’re seeking a late-round player capable of low-end RB1 production as a rookie if Forte gets hurt, Carey is the type of player capable of earning a lot of yards.
Jason Wood: Matt Forte is the offensive cornerstone in Chicago, but Carey profiles as the best backup in the Windy City for years. If Carey shows capable pass protection, he becomes a must handcuff to Forte in deeper leagues. Carey would be in line for major snaps in the event of an injury to Forte, and any back with Carey’s profile deserves a spot in lineups if the touches are guaranteed.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
C.J. Anderson, Den
Ryan Hester: Much of the case for fellow-Denver back Montee Ball is that the running back in a Peyton Manning offense is all but guaranteed to be a fantasy RB1. Using that same logic, Anderson has significant value – even if it’s speculative value. The team wasn’t sold on Ball having a consistent role last season until very late in the year when Knowshon Moreno was wearing down. Another pro-Ball narrative is that Denver did nothing at the position besides letting Moreno leave in free agency, which suggests they’re confident in Ball. While that’s a logical line of thinking, it also speaks to their confidence in Anderson as a backup. If Ball is injured or doesn’t end up being able to be the player they expect him to be, Anderson immediately becomes a starter in a Manning-led offense, which brings significant fantasy value.
Chad Parsons: While Montee Ball deserves the early draft position as the heavy favorite to monopolize starter snaps next to Peyton Manning, what if Ball fails? Ronnie Hillman is on the roster bubble, leaving Anderson as the most realistic hedge play. Anderson, like Knowshon Moreno, has the upside to go from waiver wire to weekly fantasy RB1 in a matter of a handful of missed blocks and fumbles.
Matt Waldman: The Broncos are giving Ronnie Hillman one more chance to get his act together, but C.J. Anderson is a better fit between the tackles. A strong, north-south runner with agility to make the first man miss or avoid penetration into the backfield, Anderson impressed last summer and earned a roster spot despite getting hurt late in the preseason. It’s a telling indication that Denver recognized his talent. If Montee Ball falters with ball security, pass protection, or gets hurt, Anderson earns that vaunted opportunity to play “six-man” football courtesy of Peyton Manning—and the beneficiary is a cinch to earn fantasy starter production.
LeGarrette Blount, Pit
Steve Holloway: LeGarrette Blount was the most effective Patriot running back a year ago, rushing for 772 yards, averaging 5.0 ypc and scoring 7 TDs. He signed a two-year contract with the Steelers for $3.85 Million and will be the back-up to LeVeon Bell. If Blount can win the short-yardage and goal line role for the Steelers, his value will rise. He needs the rushing attempts to be a factor as he is not an effective receiving back, with only 23 career receptions in four seasons.
Matt Waldman: A talented player with excellent feet for his size, Blount shares some positive traits with both Le’Veon Bell and former Steeler Jerome Bettis. All three are quicker than fast, but capable of punishing defenders and wearing out defenses. Unless 2013 UDFA Miguel Maysonet or former Panther Tauren Poole shows something, Blount will earn the feature role if Bell gets hurt and provides excellent value.
Jason Wood: Le’Veon Bell is the workhorse, but we all know that in the NFL teams often end up relying on backup RBs due to injury. If Bell gets hurt, Blount could be a perfect fit for Todd Haley’s system. Blount runs hard and has the size to power through interior tacklers. Given the opportunity at 18-20 touches, Blount becomes an every week fantasy starter.
Knile Davis, KC
Ryan Hester: Picking sleepers can be difficult. Some have talent but little opportunity, while others simply gain the opportunity due to an injury to a player in front of them. Davis is someone that has a little bit of both of those aspects to his outlook. While it would require an injury to Jamaal Charles ahead of him, Davis has shown skills that could lead to fantasy success if the opportunity presented itself. Charles sat out Week 17 and was injured in the team’s playoff game. In those games, Davis accumulated 186 yards on 52 touches and scored four touchdowns. Picking a player whose value is tied so much to an injury ahead of him isn’t the most immediately-satisfying strategy, but when selecting players this late in drafts, the upside is worth the selection. There are no “sure things” this late in fantasy drafts.
Steve Holloway: Knile Davis is an excellent athlete that fell to the 3rd round because of health concerns and a college fumbling issue. His speed was evident with his kick-off returns in his rookie season, but he managed only a 3.5 ypc on his 70 rushing attempts. It is worthy to note that Davis had 48 of his 70 carries over the final four regular season games. He should again be the primary back-up running back behind Jamaal Charles and see more action than in his rookie season. Charles has averaged 270 rushing attempts the past two seasons, by far his highest usage of his career. The team might look to spell him a little more often this year and work Knile Davis into the mix.
Jeff Pasquino: Knile Davis is the clear backup to Jamaal Charles, and he is already practicing well despite a broken leg injury in the playoffs last January. Charles had an incredible workload last year (almost 22 touches a game and playing over 87% of the snaps), and head coach Andy Reid has spoken about reducing Charles’ playing time to keep him fresher. That speaks to some upside for Davis, who would become a strong feature tailback if Charles missed any time.
Chris Polk, PHI
James Brimacombe: It might be hard to even find a reason why you would want to roster Polk in redraft leagues as he has superstar LeSean McCoy ahead of him. Polk does have Chip Kelly on his side as he trusted him as McCoy’s backup enough to trade away Bryce Brown. Polk saw limited touches last year with only rushing 11 times for 98 yards and adding 61 receiving yards on 4 catches. With Brown gone though it opens up an additional 83 touches and makes Polk a decent handcuff with RB1 potential if McCoy were to ever go down.
Joe Bryant: LeSean McCoy is one of the most exciting RBs in the league. But he's also playing in one of the best situations in the league. If McCoy were to miss time, Chris Polk becomes a very attractive option. He's great insurance for the McCoy owner and a huge potential value for everyone else.
Bob Henry: The Eagles wouldn’t have dealt Bryce Brown if they didn’t feel comfortable in what they have in Chris Polk. He’s now the next man up if LeSean McCoy goes does in Chip Kelly’s high powered offense that promises to generate even more volume in 2014. Kelly’s vote of confidence in Polk was evident when the Eagles didn’t select another back on draft day. Undrafted rookie Henry Josey is Polk’s primary competition heading into camp. Almost every one of the backs outside the Top 150 need an injury to give them an opportunity to make an impact, and few teams provide a better opportunity in terms of volume, creativity and three down usage than the Eagles provide for Polk. McCoy had a few scary moments last year, but he escaped injuryeach time. If the injury bug bites this year, Polk will be there to clean up as a top 10 or 15 fantasy back in McCoy’s absence.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Lance Dunbar, Dal
Bob Henry: DeMarco Murray has problems staying on the field and Lance Dunbar has caught the attention of new offensive coordinator Scott Linehan. It’s reminiscent of Joique Bell in Detroit during Linehan’s tenure there. Dunbar can catch the ball, offers some big play ability and he has the potential to emerge with a bigger role in the offense than one might expect. If Murray misses any time, and he has every one of his pro seasons, Dunbar would likely become the top Cowboys back with solid RB2 weekly value as long as he can hold off Ryan Williams during the preseason.
Kyle Wachtel: Murray will likely be one of my most highly-owned players this season. That's in one part due to his talent and another part due to the offensive system he plays in. Dunbar has averaged 4.41 YPC himself and is waiting in the wings behind Murray, who has missed 11 games in three seasons.
Lache Seastrunk, Was
Steve Holloway: Lache Seastrunk is a quick-footed and nimble running back that plays the game faster than his 4.51 combine 40-yard dash would indicate. He did run a 4.46 at his pro day workout. He appears to be an awesome candidate to back-up Morris and be the 3rd down receiving specialist, but he only caught 9 passes over two seasons at Baylor. However, he did catch the ball well in the Combine drills. His athleticism as well as Roy Helu’s undistinguished play may give Seastrunk a shot to back-up Alfred Morris.
Jason Wood: Alfred Morris was a productive runner in Mike Shanahan’s one-cut-and-go system. Can he be as productive in a more complex offense like Jay Gruden’s? It’s entirely possible, but if Morris regresses, Seastrunk is the backup to consider. A new regime generally prefers its own talent when it comes to reshuffling the depth chart, and Seastrunk can endear himself by immediately playing the 3rd down role (he’s an excellent receiver).
Andre Williams, NYG
Andy Hicks: Andre Williams doesn’t need for much to happen to get significant playing time in 2014. The Giants brought in free agent Rashad Jennings who has had half a good year out of 5 complete seasons. At age 29 the Giants will be hoping, but not expecting to get something out of that deal. David Wilson is the wildcard, but with his career still a question mark following his neck injury I don’t know how much we’ll see of him. That leaves the 4th round rookie Williams who obviously needs to learn a lot, but if he catches on quick then he could land a significant role.
Jason Wood: Many of my fellow staffers dislike Williams and point out his woeful receiving skills as a reason to steer clear. While Williams isn’t going to be confused for Darren Sproles anytime soon, he is a powerful runner who finished as a Heisman finalist last year. When I look at Williams run on film, I see no reason he can’t thrive in Ben McAdoo’s system. David Wilson’s health is a massive question mark, and presumed starter Rashad Jennings looked like a journeyman until his semi-impressive run as the surprise starter in Oakland last year. The depth chart isn’t nearly as daunting as some would have you believe.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Donald Brown, SD
Steve Holloway: Donald Brown ran for a career high 5.3 ypc with the Colts a year ago and has moved on to San Diego where he will back up Ryan Mathews. Brown is a capable runner and fairly good receiving back with 83 career receptions. The Chargers closed out last year heavily favoring the running game. If they continue to lean that direction, Brown will get enough carries to be used often as a flex play and even more if Mathews does not stay healthy.
Isaiah Crowell, Cle
Sigmund Bloom: Crowell was once a top recruit and SEC freshman performer at Georgia. His long and winding road to the NFL since then led him to an undrafted free agent contract, but now he is on one of the teams that has one of the best opportunities at running back in the league, and he is easily as naturally talented as free agent signing Ben Tate and third-round pick Terrance West. Crowell might get cut if he can’t behave, but he can also seize the job on the field if he can hang around. At worst, you’ll cut him early in the season for a hot waiver pickup, because you’ll know what you have in him pretty early on.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cin
Mark Wimer: Jeremy Hill is a rookie running back. IF he beats out BenJarvus Green-Ellis during preseason/training camp, then I'll drop Green-Ellis off my boards and elevate Hill into the grind-it-out role for the Bengals. But Hill hasn't even begun to outshine Green-Ellis, so for now Green-Ellis is the presumptive grinder for the 2014 Bengals. I'm not in love with Green-Ellis' role and probable fantasy results, but he's the veteran who gets the benefit of the doubt at this point in time.
Roy Helu, Was
Andy Hicks: There isn’t a great history of running backs succeeding outside Mike Shanahan’s system, beside Clinton Portis, so it remains to be seen how Alfred Morris adapts to life under Jay Gruden. Roy Helu has demonstrated versatility and at the very least 3rd down back skills. Helu is likely to be the 1st cab off the rank should Morris struggle or be replaced under the new coaching regime and at his current draft slot is a gamble well worth making.
Ronnie Hillman, Den
Mark Wimer: Ronnie Hillman could be a member of a by-committee backfield in Denver if he gets over his fumblitis. Owning a piece of the Broncos' offense (and Hillman is a good receiver out of the backfield) is worth a late-round pick. We'll see how he performs during preseason.
Carlos Hyde, SF
Jeff Tefertiller: Carlos Hyde was drafted to play behind Frank Gore. Gore has carried an immense workload in recent years and could break down any time. If so, expect Hyde, not Kendall Hunter or Marcus Lattimore, to pick up the carries. Hyde is a talented, hard-nosed runner; making him a great fit for the San Francisco offense.
Storm Johnson, Jac
Alex Miglio: While Toby Gerhart might be overvalued, one of his new teammates might be the sleeper of the year. Storm Johnson is a seventh-round rookie, so he is nothing more than a late-round throw of the dice. Should Gerhart disappoint or have an injury, Johnson could be in for a much bigger role than most anticipate right now.
Charles Sims, TB
Jeff Pasquino: Tampa Bay drafted Charles Sims 69th overall in May, and Sims has already been discussed by media and the coaching staff as a threat to touches for Doug Martin. Sims is a virtual lock for third down (and passing down) duties as he is an excellent receiver and blocker, and he seems destined for the second place on the Buccaneer depth chart. As we saw last season, Martin is no lock to play every game, and Sims could become that feature tailback at some point with big upside value.
Stepfan Taylor, Ari
Ryan Hester: Although Andre Ellington will provide a more electric option and Jonathan Dwyer is a bigger back, perhaps the best all-around option is Taylor – a mix of both the “thunder” and “lightning” styles. At 216 pounds, Taylor provides more size than the 199-pound Ellington and much more speed than the plodding Dwyer. In 2013, just about everyone except his own coaching staff thought Ellington deserved far more carries. The staff was concerned about Ellington being able to carry the load between the tackles as an every-down back. If those concerns remain, it will be Taylor who plays on many first and second-down situations. If those concerns come to fruition and Ellington is injured, Taylor could be the man on all three downs.
Robert Turbin, SEA
Jeff Haseley: Robert Turbin is currently third on the depth chart behind Marshawn Lynch and Christine Michael, however injuries do happen. If Turbin is forced into a more prominent role, the Seahawks running game won't suffer that much as result. He is capable of handling a bulk of carries and has shown he can be a success in the run game if called upon.