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A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. This article specifically targets deep sleeper value (players that can be found very late in a fantasy draft). In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look deeper than the top 150 players and identify players that should significantly outperform their late draft position. These players should be your targets after the 12th round of your draft.
Player with 7 Votes
Johnny Manziel, Cle
Sigmund Bloom: Manziel may not start Week 1, but he’ll start soon enough. Yes, his weapons are underwhelming, but he will be an aggressive runner, and that alone can create upside QB2 value. IF he surprises as a passer and creates big plays against defenses that aren’t sure how to handle him yet, Manziel could approach RB1 value. He’s the best ceiling play outside of the top 15.
Adam Harstad: He was on my undervalued list during the last round of undervalued players, but now he makes my “deep sleeper” list because his ADP has fallen out of the top 150 entirely. Manziel is going behind guys like Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, and Alex Smith. Those guys will not win you your league. Johnny Manziel might. Both Vince Young and Tim Tebow - two guys who were hardly fantastic NFL QBs - put up top-10 point per game averages as rookies on the back of massive rushing performances. Manziel might not be the week 1 starter, (although then again, maybe he will be), but he’s going to be starting at some point.
Jeff Haseley: I expect the Browns to start Manziel at quarterback when he is ready. He still has some learning to do and some experience to gain, but when the day comes and he "gets it" he'll be the starter. I firmly believe that. His playmaking ability is exactly what is trending in the NFL these days. Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, etc have proved to be successful doing what Manziel does best. He's a great late round grab as a QB3 if your roster supports it.
Ryan Hester: The way things are trending suggest that Manziel will be starting for Cleveland early in the season, if not right out of the gate in Week 1. Manziel’s ability in college to make very good defensive players look foolish at times can translate to the NFL. He has a “plus” arm, he’s bold enough to throw receivers open (particularly size mismatches like Jordan Cameron), and his rushing numbers should give him a solid fantasy boost of four to six points per week. Vince Young was fantasy-relevant as a rookie. Why not Manziel?
Stephen Holloway: Manziel might not be the starting quarterback for Cleveland from the get-go, but he will eventually get a chance to start. The Cleveland situation seems dire, particularly if Josh Gordon is suspended for most, if not all of this season. However, Manziel has a lot of potential to be a running threat and he should use Cameron to his full potential. There is a lot of upside taking Manziel as your second quarterback late in your draft.
Ari Ingel: It is going to be nearly impossible for the Browns not to start Manziel. They drafted him with a first round pick and the fans are paying to see him play, not Brian Hoyer. Maybe even more importantly, LeBron James wants to see him play, and what the King of Cleveland wants, the King gets. When looking for sleeper quarterback picks, the ones that run usually are the best option, and Manziel can certainly do that. The Browns have a very good offensive line and even without Josh Gordon, they have a capable receiving core in Jordan Cameron, Andrew Hawkins, Miles Austin, Nate Burleson and Charles Johnson. And if Gordon only gets 8 games, Manziel could be putting up high QB2 numbers by the end of the year.
Jason Wood: Personal biases aside, I have to acknowledge Manziel’s upside at current ADP. His mobility alone puts him as a potential top 12-14 starter if he’s given the starting job. Do I think Manziel will be a QB1 now or in the future? No. Do I think he’s a legitimate fantasy starter in 12-team leagues when the Browns are facing an easier defense? Yes. Mobility cures a lot of mechanical flaws. If Tim Tebow and Terrelle Pryor delivered starter value thanks to their legs, Manziel is worth drafting, too.
Players with 4 Votes
Joe Flacco, Bal
Heath Cummings: Flacco’s QB18 finish in 2013 was his worst since his rookie year and there’s every reason to think that 2014 will be better. The Ravens have added reliable weapons in the passing game and improved the offensive line. They’ve brought in Gary Kubiak to change the offense. Flacco should be regarded as a mid-range QB2 and not a bottom of the scrap heap option outside of the top 150.
Jeff Pasquino: The depth at quarterback this year is really good if you can get Joe Flacco late as your second quarterback. New offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak will have Flacco targeting his tight ends often, and with Flacco’s good friend Dennis Pitta back from injury plus Owen Daniels as his second tight end, Flacco has a lot of good options between the numbers over the middle. Add in Torrey Smith and veteran Steve Smith outside, Marlon Brown as his third wide receiver plus some questions in the ground game and I can see Flacco posting strong QB2 numbers with QB1 upside this season.
Kyle Wachtel: Under Gary Kubiak, Matt Schaub's per game averages from 2008 through 2012 would translate to 4329 yards, 24.4 touchdowns, and 12.8 interceptions in the air over a 16-game span - those were low-end QB1 numbers during much of that time. A healthy Dennis Pitta, the addition of Steve Smith, plus a more effective running game to use play-action off of make those Schaub averages attainable.
Jason Wood: Flacco is the antithesis of exciting as a fantasy prospect. He’s ranked no higher than QB12 and no lower than QB19 in six seasons. The return of a healthy Dennis Pitta, addition of Steve Smith and the uncertainties surrounding the once-reliable ground game, Flacco has a floor that’s higher than his current ADP. He’s not the guy to draft if you’re looking to hit the lottery, but if you want a backup/bye week starter that won’t hurt you – Flacco is your guy.
Jake Locker, Ten
James Brimacombe: He looked decent last year before he was injured and he could surprise this year as the Titans offense looks to expand and open up. Locker has reliable targets in Wright and Walker and now with Bishop Sankey coming in there are going to be plenty of opportunities to move the ball and put points on the board.
Ryan Hester: I wrote the following in our first version of this post back in June: “Last season, Locker was coming into his own before getting injured. He had a three week stretch with 28.8, 24.7, and 23.8 fantasy points. To put that into context, last season’s QB10 – Matt Ryan – averaged 19.8 points per game. Locker brings all of the fantasy-friendly tools to the table. Locker also adds a great offensive mind this season in Ken Whisenhunt. Whisenhunt’s mind and Locker’s tools could lead to a very surprising fantasy season.” This all still applies.
Andy Hicks: Jake Locker was just starting to look like a real life NFL quarterback when he was again hit by the injury bug. The Titans have shown faith in him by refusing to upgrade the backup position to any significant degree and he has a solid WR2 in Kendall Wright and a potential WR1 in Justin Hunter waiting to bloom. With significant investment in the offensive line, Locker will be in a very good position to have a great season. The only real question mark is his inability to stay healthy.
Kyle Wachtel: Locker has a young, improving receiving corps and a new, quarterback friendly head coach in Ken Whisenhunt, who helped oversee the rejuvenation of Philip Rivers last season. He also has a 4.50 timed 40-yard dash that has translated well to the NFL; he's averaged nearly seven yards-per-carry on 73 rushes. While his accuracy may struggle and his game won't be pretty, it is clear that Locker has good value.
Player with 3 Votes
Geno Smith, NYJ
Sigmund Bloom: Smith’s mostly strong December went unnoticed in the fantasy world, as did his six rushing touchdowns. With even incremental improvement in the quality of his weapons and his play, Smith could at least be an upside backup QB and have rosterable value in most every league.
James Brimacombe: This year Smith with have Michael Vick pushing him for the starting spot and Smith will have to improve on his rookie numbers. With the Jets bringing in Eric Decker it gives Smith a much better chance to succeed and move the ball. Smith also has the ability to run and give you extra fantasy numbers.
David Dodds: Geno Smith rushed for 366 yards and 6 touchdowns last year. He also threw for over 3,000 yards. And he did those things with scrapheap WRs in his rookie season. Smith is being priced as if Michael Vick is knocking on the door to supplant him any day now. I think that could not be any farther from the truth. Smith is the unquestioned starter after a great camp and is a steal at this ADP.
Players with 2 Votes
EJ Manuel, Buf
Jeff Haseley: The Bills bolstered their receiving corps by moving up to draft the highly touted rookie Sammy Watkins, plus they added Mike Williams in free agency, who knows Doug Marrone's offense from his days at Syracuse. EJ Manuel also has Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin at his disposal which elevates his ability to make plays. The Bills offense is evolving and might wind up being the reason for Manuel's rise into the Top 20.
Jeff Pasquino: If you are looking for a late round second quarterback with big upside this year, consider EJ Manuel. The Bills may have lost Stevie Johnson in a trade to San Francisco, but Buffalo added Sammy Watkins to jump right in as their top wideout this year. The Bills also acquired Mike Williams (Tampa Bay) to start opposite of Watkins, plus a few younger big play wideouts (Marquise Goodwin, Robert Woods) to stretch the field in 3- and 4-WR sets. Manuel has no real threat behind him to contend for his starting job as head coach Doug Marrone is all in for Manuel, who can also add big fantasy production as a rusher. The Bills are going to throw the ball a lot this year and I think that Manuel could start to look like 80-90% of Cam Newton’s second season.
Josh McCown, TB
Kyle Wachtel: Tampa Bay has made every effort to secure top playmakers on offense, adding Mike Evans and Austin Sefarian-Jenkins to team up with Vincent Jackson. This group will create problems for opposing defenses in the red zone, making 25 or more passing touchdowns a real possibility. McCown's athleticism is also underrated, although he doesn't utilize his legs nearly as much as he should. He's a matchup based QB2 that streamers should keep an eye on.
Mark Wimer: Josh McCown has enough surrounding talent in Tampa Bay to be a serviceable fantasy backup, with the opportunity for an occasional start when the matchup is favorable. If Mike Evans proves to be a solid complement to Vincent Jackson during 2014, the Buccaneers' passing attack could be much better than anticipated. In the second preseason game, McCown had connections for TDs with both Jackson and Evans, but Evans had the ball punched out just as he reached the goal-line. This tandem of quarterback and receivers is going to surprise some folks this year.
Matt Schaub, Oak
Matt Waldman: Derek Carr isn't playing this year and the Raiders' offensive line is decent enough to support a corps of skill players that includes talents like Maurice Jones-Drew, James Jones, and a variety of receivers with enough skill to benefit from Schaub's veteran skills and leadership. Don't expect fantasy miracles, but bye-week production and perhaps high-end QB2 work makes him a deep value.
Mark Wimer: Matt Schaub has done it at a high level in this league in years past - for example, finishing third among fantasy quarterbacks in 2009 with 4,770 yards and 29 TDs thrown. If someone besides James Jones pans out as a complementary wide receiver to Jones, Schaub could surprise with the Raiders. He's worth a late-round 'flyer' pick in my opinion. Jones' struggles to establish himself as a starter early in camp were surpassed as of the second preseason game, when he started ahead of Andre Holmes - the Schaub/Jones linkage is alive and well entering the key third preseason game. Rod Streater is a solid #2 wide receiver - and Mychal Rivera is a respectable tight end. Schaub has the tools he needs in his tool box.
Players with 1 Vote
Teddy Bridgewater, Min
Matt Waldman: The rookie's preseason debut was considered a failure by the media, but his coaching staff said it was strong work overall and he exhibit skills that will make him special in the NFL. Whom to believe? I'm siding with the staff based on my conversation with a scout who watched the game and noted that beyond the confusion of some defensive looks, Bridgewater did some things that you want to see from experienced veterans. If Bridgewater starts the majority of the season, look for enough improvement that he'll post high-end QB2/low-end QB1 production down the stretch.
Mike Glennon, TB
Adam Harstad: Arguably no backup quarterback has a better chance of unseating the guy ahead of him on the depth charts this offseason. Glennon is an afterthought even in the deepest of 2QB or Superflex leagues. Given the quality of talent at the skill positions, Glennon is perhaps the best option for anyone who wants to dumpster-dive at the QB position and grab a few extra lottery tickets late.
Carson Palmer, Ari
Jeff Pasquino: Carson Palmer is getting up in age, but quarterbacks last longer if they are surrounded with talent. That is the case with Palmer with Larry Fitzgerald and the rising Michael Floyd starting with Arizona. Add in that RB Andre Ellington is an explosive receiver out of the backfield and Palmer is a strong QB2 with upside in 2014 and is available very cheap late in drafts.
Tom Savage, Hou
Mark Wimer: If the wheels come off for Ryan Fitzpatrick sooner rather than later, Tom Savage could be starting in Houston by mid-season. He may be the 'surprise' quarterback of the 2014 draft so I'm scooping him with late-round picks this year. The down-then-up preseason of Fitzpatrick so far has done nothing to change my optimism about Savage's second-half prospects.