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A fantasy draft is all about obtaining the most value with each selection. There is value available throughout a draft, and grabbing it is one of the most important keys to a successful fantasy team. This article specifically targets deep sleeper value (players that can be found very late in a fantasy draft). In an attempt to point out this value, we asked our staff to look deeper than the top 150 players and identify players that should significantly outperform their late draft position. These players should be your targets after the 12th round of your draft.
Players Receiving 8 Votes
Carson Palmer, Ari
Sigmund Bloom: Palmer will gain a big upgrade in offensive line quality with the addition of left tackle Jared Veldheer and 2013 #7 overall pick offensive guard Jonathan Cooper. Larry Fitzgerald should be more effective not playing through injuries this year, and Michael Floyd is poised for a third-year breakout. He had over 4000 yards and 24 passing scores last year. What can Palmer do with better protection in 2014?
James Brimacombe: The Cardinals offense is on the way up with the electric duo of Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd at the WR positions. Palmer has plenty of talent surrounding him on offense and a much improved offense line in front of him which should allow him and the offense to open up even more then what they did in 2013. He is a nice QB2 type to have on your team if you have one of the stud QB’s already on your team.
Jeff Haseley: Carson Palmer finished in the Top 17 two years in a row, once with Oakland and once with Arizona. He is in the twilight of his career, but he still has the ability to make plays, which should continue with Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd anchoring the receiving corps. He has passed for over 4,000 yards in each of the last two years and is an excellent quarterback to target late in the draft who can be inserted as a fantasy backup if needed.
Bob Henry: Palmer should benefit from an improved offensive line with the return of first round pick Jonathan Cooper, the signing of Jared Veldheer and the addition of Troy Niklas and John Carlson as viable in-line blocking tight ends. Michael Floyd has breakout potential entering his third year. Larry Fitzgerald continues to be one of the best overall receivers in the league. Andre Ellington gives Bruce Arians an explosive, pass catching back and the Cardinals added a pair of receivers capable of making big plays in veteran Ted Ginn and rookie John Brown. Palmer threw for a career-high 4274 yards last year along with 24 TDs, but he’ll need to cut down on the interceptions and get better protection up front. If that happens, Palmer could sneak into the top 12 or 15 fantasy QBs.
Steve Holloway: Carson Palmer completed 63.3 % of his passes in his first year with Arizona, passing for 4,274 yards, both numbers slightly above his career averages. Both Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd played well a year ago and are back as his primary targets. Andre Ellington is expected to be their top running back and he also is an excellent receiver. They lost Andre Roberts, but added speedster Ted Ginn who averaged a career high 15.4 ypc on 36 receptions in his one year with Carolina. With Ginn helping to spread the field, Palmer should find open receivers more easily and again top 4,000 yards with his TD passes also climbing.
Alex Miglio: It’s difficult to call a seasoned quarterback as well-known as Carson Palmer a “deep sleeper,” but he is all but off the fantasy map this offseason. That seems ludicrous given Palmer still has Larry Fitzgerald and emerging Michael Floyd to throw to, not to mention an improved offensive line and dynamic Andre Ellington spearheading the rushing attack.
Palmer threw for 4,274 yards and 24 touchdowns last season, and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he will get to 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns this year. He is a fantastic match for a guy like Andy Dalton in a QBBC situation.
Kyle Wachtel: Palmer ranked as the QB14 in FP/G after Week 11. With a second year in Bruce Arians' offense, along with an improving group of playmakers, Palmer should once again rank as a fine QB2.
Matt Waldman: The Cardinals’ starter was the No.17 fantasy quarterback last year and Palmer did it without as good of an offensive line he’s expected to have in 2014 now that 2013 first-round pick Jonathan Cooper is healthy and will be in the lineup. Palmer was up and down last year. He had 6 games with at least 295 yards and 2 touchdowns, but 4 games with less than 200 yards. Don’t sleep on Palmer because his division is tough: Those poor contests came against Carolina, New Orleans, Atlanta, and Seattle while the three of his best weeks were against San Francisco (twice) and St. Louis. If Arizona utilizes Andre Ellington as expected, Palmer will get a lot of easy yards this year.
EJ Manuel, Buf
Sigmund Bloom: The Bills added a quarterback couch who had a previous affinity with Manuel, and they should only be better at executing in head coach Doug Marrone’ uptempo, aggressive offense. Sammy Watkins and a host of young targets should only get better, and a 100% CJ Spiller could be the top priority for opposing defenses. Manuel might not approach Nick Foles’ 2013 numbers (heck Foles could struggle to do that), but a similar rise from obscurity is possible.
James Brimacombe: Manuel struggled in his rookie season as the Bills starting QB and only ended up playing 10 games but still ended up with 1,972 passing yards with 11 touchdowns and 186 yards rushing and 2 more touchdowns. The Bills have loaded their offense up in order to help Manuel to succeed in the system. With his running ability as well and the amount of fantasy points that can be had on the ground, Manuel is a high upside QB2 type and if you have the roster space is a great addition.
Jeff Haseley: The Bills bolstered their receiving corps by moving up to draft the highly touted rookie Sammy Watkins, plus they added Mike Williams in free agency, who knows Doug Marrone's offense from his days at Syracuse. EJ Manuel also has Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin at his disposal which elevates his ability to make plays. The Bills offense is evolving and might wind up being the reason for Manuel's rise into the Top 20.
Bob Henry: Manuel completed over 65% of his passes in each of his college season and now that he has a better grasp of Doug Marrone’s system, I believe he’ll take a big step forward in his second season. He’ll have plenty of opportunity in an up-tempo offense that ran the third most plays in the league last year. He’ll also have better weapons at his disposal – the biggest playmaker in the draft in Sammy Watkins, a healthier C.J. Spiller, a red zone presence with proven scoring ability in Mike Williams, and a pair of talented second-year receivers in Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin.Doug Marrone has no plans of slowing down the tempo of his offense and he now has more tools for his hand-picked quarterbacks to execute his offense. Of course, Manuel has to stay healthy, but he gives you low-end QB1 potential with an economical ADP.
Adam Harstad: Everyone loves Philadelphia’s up-tempo offense, but it was actually the Buffalo Bills who ran the fastest offense in the league last year. With a year of experience under his belt and a glut of young weapons to work with, EJ Manuel and the Bills could be the breakout stars of the 2014 season.
Jeff Pasquino: If you are looking for a late round second quarterback with big upside this year, consider EJ Manuel. The Bills may have lost Stevie Johnson in a trade to San Francisco, but Buffalo added Sammy Watkins to jump right in as their top wideout this year. The Bills also acquired Mike Williams (Tampa Bay) to start opposite of Watkins, plus a few younger big play wideouts (Marquise Goodwin, Robert Woods) to stretch the field in 3- and 4-WR sets. Manuel has no real threat behind him to contend for his starting job as head coach Doug Marrone is all in for Manuel, who can also add big fantasy production as a rusher. The Bills are going to throw the ball a lot this year and I think that Manuel could start to look like 80-90% of Cam Newton’s second season.
Jeff Tefertiller: After a rough rookie campaign, EJ Manuel will quarterback the Buffalo Bills again this season. We should expect marked improvement in his ability to read defenses and deliver the ball on time. The team had upgraded his weapons with the acquisition of Mike Williams and drafting of Sammy Watkins. With the aid of Manuel's running ability, it would not be a surprise to see him flirt with fantasy QB1 level by the end of the season.
Jason Wood: I was higher than the consensus on Manuel before last year’s NFL draft, was even higher on him once the Bills made him their starter, and remain higher than most on Manuel entering this season. Manuel has all the tools to succeed in Doug Marrone’s offense, and the additions of Sammy Watkins and Mike Williams combined with the natural maturation of Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin provides Manuel with options. If you’re looking to roster a QB2 in the latter rounds, Manuel is one of the few that could legitimately deliver top 10 numbers if the dominoes fall perfectly into place.
PLAYER RECEIVING 5 VOTES
Eli Manning, NYG
James Brimacombe: Eli Manning had a miserable 2013 season finishing as the 21st ranked QB despite playing all 16 games. The Giants offense as a whole could not seem to get on the same page and finding the endzone was a nightmare for Manning as he only threw for 18 touchdowns (to go along with 27 interceptions). Manning is still a decent option to use as your backup QB as he has shown in the past that he can be a top 10 QB as he did that feat three years in a row from 2009-2011.
Cian Fahey: Eli Manning's struggles during the 2013 season were evident for everyone to see, but he wasn't the primary reason for his lack of production. A combination of terrible offensive design and an ineffective running game pit the Giants quarterback in situations where the defense could get pressure on him quickly while crowding the coverage on the back end. This year the offensive line has been re-tooled and the scheme has been altered, so Manning should at least return to being a top 20 fantasy quarterback.
Andy Hicks: There will be many fantasy owners refusing to draft Eli Manning this year after his disastrous 2013 performance. It was his worst year since his rookie season and with a new offense it would be easy to avoid him altogether. Manning is nothing if not resilient though and will be keen to prove his doubters wrong. History shows us that he has been up and down in fantasy rankings and any kind of a bounce back this year will present him as a credible fantasy backup. There are plenty of reasons to be cautiously optimistic this year though with the younger Manning from a 1st round pick on a wide receiver to an improved offensive line.
Steve Holloway: Eli Manning and the entire Giants offense underperformed last year, with Manning throwing a career high 27 interceptions and dropping below 7.0 ypa for the first time since 2008. Manning had ankle surgery in the off-season, but is already throwing and is said to be energized by the new offense led by offensive coordinator Bob McAdoo. Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle and 1st round rookie Odell Beckham, Jr. are all excellent fits for the new offense and Mario Manningham returns providing depth. The Giants also added Rashad Jennings, an excellent receiver out of the backfield. Manning easily throws for 4,000 yards and 25 TDs.
Jeff Pasquino: So let me get this straight – I can draft Eli Manning after 15-18 guys are off the board? Really? I am not looking to draft on past performance here, but let’s get some facts straight. Manning was victimized by a bad offensive scheme last year and Reuben Randle’s inability to make the right reads against defenses. Randle was targeted on eight of Manning’s 27 picks last year, but new offensive coordinator Bob McAdoo is putting in the West Coast offense for the Giants. Manning has Victor Cruz and rookie Odell Beckham as targets along with Randle, plus a very favorable passing schedule (NFC East, AFC South) that could lead to a lot of points. Throw in that New York has a lot of questions on defense and in the ground game and I could see Manning easily throwing 35 times a game in a lot of shootouts this year. Manning is a very strong QB2 with favorable upside.
PLAYERS RECEIVING 4 VOTES
Sam Bradford, StL
Cian Fahey: Before tearing his ACL last year, Sam Bradford was averaging two touchdowns and 241 yards per game despite facing the Cardinals, 49ers and Panthers defenses during that time. That was also in spite of the team's inability to run the ball effectively that allowed defenses to crowd coverage and rush with four. Bradford hasn't really broken out yet, but the potential for a balanced offense in 2014 should dramatically help his production.
Andy Hicks: The Rams have been very patient in the development of Sam Bradford and this is the season it will have to bear fruit. St.Louis have been building a young offense around the still to turn 27 year old Bradford and while he is unlikely to become a fantasy starter this year, he should be solid in an emergency. Before he was injured he was averaging 2 touchdowns a game, including 3 games with 3 touchdowns and with any further progression he will be knocking on the door in a lot of fantasy leagues. He may go undrafted in a lot, but he’ll be a hot waiver wire pick up sooner rather than later. Get him late in drafts instead.
Steve Holloway: Sam Bradford has underperformed as the Rams first overall pick in the 2010 draft. He did throw for a career high completion percentage of 60.7% last year before going on IR following knee surgery. He should be available for practices in training camp. The Rams have a much improved offensive line and significantly improved wide receivers for Bradford to target this year. Tavon Austin, last year’s #8 overall pick brings speed and should improve from his rookie season where he caught 40 passes, Chris Givens brings a deep threat that the improved offensive line may allow Bradford to use and Kenny Britt may be rejuvenated returning to Coach Fisher’s leadership. If Britt has finally recovered from his knee surgery and can reign in his attitude, he is an excellent red zone target.
Matt Waldman: The Rams’ starter was putting together a nice season before his Week 9 injury. The ground game has promise and the quarterback has his first bona fide primary receiver talent in Kenny Britt. The Rams have enough offensive balance for Bradford to shine as a quality bye-week starter capable of delivering more if Britt and second-year receiver Tavon Austin click.
Jake Locker, Ten
Sigmund Bloom: Locker is a dual threat quarterback, he’s with a QB-friendly head coach, and he was mid-breakout before his first injury last year. His receivers are young and only getting better, and he was actually arriving as a fantasy quarterback when he got hurt, so they could grow together this season. The injury risk seems real, but Locker will cost you a last round pick or maybe even just a waiver wire buck early in the season. He could level off a a boom/bust QB1 in the fantasy mold of Kaepernick/Wilson with good health and development.
Ryan Hester: Last season, Locker was coming into his own before getting injured. He had a three week stretch with 28.8, 24.7, and 23.8 fantasy points. To put that into context, last season’s QB10 – Matt Ryan – averaged 19.8 points per game. Locker brings all of the fantasy-friendly tools to the table. He’s an improving passer who isn’t afraid to make bold throws – and high-value vertical throws like deep shots and endzone jump-balls. He also has the mobility that can add 10 or more fantasy points to his total in any given week. Locker also adds a great offensive mind this season in new Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt. Whisenhunt’s mind and Locker’s tools could lead to a very surprising fantasy season.
Andy Hicks: Jake Locker was just starting to look like a real life NFL quarterback when he was again hit by the injury bug. The Titans have shown faith in him by refusing to upgrade the backup position to any significant degree and he has a solid WR2 in Kendall Wright and a potential WR1 in Justin Hunter waiting to bloom. With significant investment in the offensive line, Locker will be in a very good position to have a great season. The only real question mark is his inability to stay healthy.
Kyle Wachtel: Through Week 9 in 2013, Locker ranked as the 16th quarterback in FP/G. He was not even healthy for that entire stretch, which included match ups versus the 49ers, Rams, and Jets. An improving supporting cast and his scrambling ability make him a fine late-round option.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Joe Flacco, Bal
Heath Cummings: Flacco added Steve Smith and gets a full season out of Dennis Pitta. He also has a reasonable second tight end in Owen Daniels. This upgrade in cast is enough for me to think that Flacco has at least an outside shot at finishing as an upper-echelon QB2 in 2014. As much flack as he's taken for his huge contract, he hasn't been worse than QB18 since his rookie season and the team hasn't done a great job of putting weapons around him. The development of Marlon Brown could really put him over the hump and give him a chance to slide into the top 12 QBs in 2014.
Jeff Pasquino: The depth at quarterback this year is really good if you can get Joe Flacco late as your second quarterback. New offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak will have Flacco targeting his tight ends often, and with Flacco’s good friend Dennis Pitta back from injury plus Owen Daniels as his second tight end, Flacco has a lot of good options between the numbers over the middle. Add in Torrey Smith and veteran Steve Smith outside, Marlon Brown as his third wide receiver plus some questions in the ground game and I can see Flacco posting strong QB2 numbers with QB1 upside this season.
Matt Waldman: The Ravens lacked a running game, a center to keep the offensive line together, and Dennis Pitta wasn’t around to exploit open zones and give Torrey Smith wider lanes to run through. I’ve never been a huge Flacco fan, but he’s decent bet to earn top-20 fantasy QB production. He was a top-15 producer at his position for three years prior to 2013’s debacle. With Pitta back and center Jeremy Zuttah and pass catchers Owen Daniels and Steve Smith joining the fold, Flacco will have time and options to rebound.
Josh McCown, TB
Bob Henry: There are players I have ranked higher or projected with more points, but when I look at a team’s potential fantasy points at the quarterback position, Tampa Bay is a team I have to take seriously. McCown is a 35-year career backup who performed well enough while filling in for an injured Jay Cutler against a soft schedule that a convinced Lovie Smithbrought him to Tampa to be the starter. The Bucs then added Mike Evans, Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Charles Sims in the draft to give them a king-sized receiving trio to pair with Vincent Jackson. The Bucs offense looks eerily similar to the same Bears offense where McCown thrived a year ago. McCown might not last more than a month, but he has high QB2 upside and low QB1 value any given week as long as he does.
Ryan Hester: McCown was dismissed as a journeyman who could never be a legitimate starter until last season when his career was resurrected. Many will attribute that to Marc Trestman’s offensive wizardry, but having “twin towers” at wide receiver didn’t hurt either. McCown will have a duo on the perimeter similar to Chicago’s Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery with Vincent Jackson and rookie Mike Evans in Tampa Bay. He’ll also have a tight end similar to the big-bodied-yet-smooth-moving Martellus Bennett in rookie Austin Sefarian-Jenkins. 2014 Tampa Bay also has a similarity to 2013 Chicago at the running back position in that they have a versatile, pass-catching threat in Doug Martin. McCown won’t end 2014 as a QB1 for fantasy purposes, but his name will appear in the top-12 in a handful of weeks. He’s a nice quarterback-by-committee asset.
Mark Wimer: Josh McCown has enough surrounding talent in Tampa Bay to be a serviceable fantasy backup, with the opportunity for an occasional start when the matchup is favorable. If Mike Evans proves to be a solid complement to Vincent Jackson during 2014, the Buccaneers' passing attack could be much better than anticipated.
Player Receiving 2 Votes
Michael Vick, NYJ
Chad Parsons: When Michael Vick is the clear starter, he has been a rock solid QB1 for fantasy owners. Despite his age, Vick remains a threat for 50 or more rushing yards, the ultimate trump card at the quarterback position. Vick has a decent chance to start a meaningful number of games over the unimpressive Geno Smith; he is on the short-list of dirt-cheap upside quarterback plays this season.
Jason Wood: Michael Vick is saying all the right things, and for now the smart play is on Geno Smith starting the season under center. But Smith needs to show significant growth in Year Two or the Jets won’t hesitate to turn the huddle over to Michael Vick. Rex Ryan needs to win NOW as does OC Marty Mornhinweg. Vick enjoyed a career resurgence in Philadelphia in no small part thanks to Mornhingweg; it’s a perfect match.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Teddy Bridgewater, Min
Jason Wood: Bridgewater could be an NFL starter by Week 1, and is arguably the most NFL ready of the rookie quarterbacks. Bridgewater played in a pro system at Louisville and will have the playbook mastered far faster than his contemporaries.
Mike Glennon, TB
Adam Harstad: Arguably no backup quarterback has a better chance of unseating the guy ahead of him on the depth charts this offseason. Glennon is an afterthought even in the deepest of 2QB or Superflex leagues. Given the quality of talent at the skill positions, Glennon is perhaps the best option for anyone who wants to dumpster-dive at the QB position and grab a few extra lottery tickets late.
Tom Savage, Hou
Mark Wimer: If the wheels come off for Ryan Fitzpatrick sooner rather than later, Tom Savage could be starting in Houston by mid-season. He may be the 'surprise' quarterback of the 2014 draft so I'm scooping him with late-round picks this year.
Matt Schaub, Oak
Mark Wimer: Matt Schaub has done it at a high level in this league in years past - for example, finishing third among fantasy quarterbacks in 2009 with 4,770 yards and 29 TDs thrown. If someone besides James Jones pans out as a complementary wide receiver to Jones, Schaub could surprise with the Raiders. He's worth a late-round 'flyer' pick in my opinion.