Well, another regular season in the books. After a few years of being relatively entertaining but posting a pretty wretched record ATS, I decided to mix things up the last two seasons and make better picks while being the most dull writer around. Hope you’ve enjoyed the transformation as much as I have!
At the beginning of each season, I make predictions about how the year will go. The last few seasons, I’ve correctly picked Super Bowl champs, Super Bowl participants, even two years ago nailing every conference title game participant (Ravens, Pats, Niners, & Falcons). I bring all of this up because my prediction for this year’s Super Bowl champ featured that team in Northern California whose coach just bailed. Yeah good job me. I will say this…in each of the last two years, the team I picked to LOSE the Super Bowl has gone on to WIN the thing. So get your Denver Broncos championship t-shirts ready to roll!
I went on a limb a decent amount, and there were some hits (Pittsburgh winning its division, Detroit taking the wild card) and there were some misses (San Diego winning its division, Tennessee making big offensive strides). All in all, it was a success rate probably around 51%, which Joe Bryant assured me is all I need to do in order to keep my job.
With the playoffs rolling around, it certainly has the feel of a Seattle title once again. They’re peaking at the right time (duh) and have that home-field advantage all the way through. And New England is supposedly the dominant force in the AFC. But thankfully I’m here to tell you exactly how the postseason will turn out. Let’s find out…
Carolina (-6.5) vs. Arizona
I believe the Panthers win this game, but this is too many points. I know Arizona is starting like David Dodds at quarterback this weekend, but the Panthers are 7-9 for a reason. I think people are giving a little bit too much credit to the team getting hot at the right time thing. Carolina should win this. They’re home, they’re playing well lately, Arizona has been struggling, they’re missing their starting and backup QBs, blah blah blah. And if the line was Carolina -3, I’d say go for it. But they’re not blowing anyone out, especially not against this Cardinal defense.
Pick: Cardinals
Pittsburgh (-3) vs. Baltimore
Things are going particularly well for the Ravens right now. They caught the break they needed just to get into the postseason, and Le’Veon Bell’s knee injury means the biggest advantage the Steelers had is now gone. Now factor in the terrible weather, and it looks like it’s going to be an old school Pittsburgh/Baltimore smash-mouth affair. Right now, that matchup appears to strongly favor Baltimore. Justin Forsett isn’t a grinder, but the Pittsburgh run defense isn’t particularly strong. And Baltimore is tough to run on even WITH Bell, let alone backups. I really wish I could buy an extra half point here so I could take the Ravens +3.5 but the +3 will have to do.
Pick: Ravens
Indianapolis (-3) vs. Cincinnati
We’ve known for a long time that the Colts were going to be a playoff participant. Before we knew the field was officially set, I made a mental note to pick against them whenever they finally did play their first game. I’m just not getting a very good team vibe from them. Sure, Luck made some strides this year and is squarely amongst the elite. But the rest of the team is pretty much not good. Obviously Andy Dalton has a long history of big game shrinkage, but I think this is his best chance to get that monkey off his back. Sign me up for a Cincinnati outright victory here.
Pick: Bengals
Dallas (-6.5) vs. Detroit
I’m backing Dallas big-time this postseason. I’ve been on the correct side of the Tony Romo debate for years, telling anyone and everyone that he’s a notch below the elite and is an outstanding quarterback. All of the numbers and eye tests back it up, but people want to point to losses in “big games”. Well, Tony is about ready to shut everyone right up and march through the postseason to shut everyone up. HOWEVER…this is a little bit high for me, considering he’s going up against an 11-win Detroit team that has a scary defensive front. Let’s call this the hedge of “what happens if Suh decides to put Romo in a sharpshooter and break his back?” bet.
Pick: Lions
BEST BETS: With only 4 games being played, they’re all best bets!
LOCK: Cincinnati Bengals
LAST WEEK
Overall:9-7
Best Bets: 3-1
Lock of the Week: 1-0
YEAR TO DATE (final regular season stats)
Overall: 140-120 (53.8%)
Best Bets: 37-32 (53.6%)
Lock of the Week: 10-7 (58.8%)
POWER RANKINGS
Team Name W/L (Preseason rank)
1. Seahawks 12-4 (1)
2. Patriots 12-4 (4)
3. Packers 12-4 (8)
4. Cowboys 12-4 (21)
5. Broncos 12-4 (2)
6. Lions 11-5 (15)
7. Steelers 11-5 (12)
8. Bengals 10-5-1 (10)
9. Colts 11-5 (9)
10. Cardinals 11-5 (13)
11. Ravens 10-6 (16)
14. Eagles 10-6 (6)
13. Texans 9-7 (17)
14. Chiefs 9-7 (18)
15. Bills 9-7 (27)
16. Dolphins 8-8 (28)
17. Chargers 9-7 (5)
18. 49ers 8-8 (3)
19. Panthers 7-8-1 (11)
20. Falcons 6-10 (24)
21. Giants 6-10 (25)
22. Rams 6-10 (22)
23. Browns 7-9 (30)
24. Saints 7-9 (7)
25. Vikings 7-9 (23)
26. Jets 4-12 (20)
27. Bears 5-11 (14)
28. Redskins 4-12 (26)
29. Raiders 3-13 (31)
30. Bucs 2-14 (29)
31. Jaguars 3-13 (32)
32. Titans 2-14 (19)
