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This week we discuss the following:
- Breakout WRs: For real?
- Your best buy-low candidates
- Trent Richardson
- Matt Schaub
- Broncos vs. Jaguars
- Zac Stacy
- Cardinals RBs
Breakout WRs: For real?
Alshon Jeffery, T.Y. Hilton, Rueben Randle, Terrance Williams, and Keenan Allen all had over 100 yards and scored at least one touchdown in week five.
Let's go down the list and I'll have you tell our readers whether each of these guys is going to remain a fantasy force this season, or if last week is going to end up being their one major bright spot for the year.
Let's start with Alshon Jeffery. Is he an every-week starter from here on out?
Jason Wood: Jeffery has seen 8 or more targets in almost all games and we've seen the explosive results the last two weeks. What's most telling is the Cutler is now looking at everyone and not focusing solely on Marshall. So yes, I see him as a high upside every week starter from here on out.
Matt Waldman: What's most telling to me about Jeffery is something I mentioned about him in last week's Gut Check. Cutler has the confidence to continue going to the well even when Jeffery suffers a tough drop in the red zone. This happened against Detroit and Jeffery scored on an even tough target following the drop. He will be a WR1 when Brandon Marshall moves on. He might become one while Marshall is still here.
Jeff Pasquino: Jeffery is finally breaking out and showed that he cannot just be a 1B to Brandon Marshall's 1A, but Jeffery can be a WR1 unto himself. Jay Cutler is looking at him quite a bit with coverage draped on Marshall, but now teams will have to respect both of them, creating balance between the two and likely affording both receivers 10+ targets a week going forward. He is my favorite of the receivers mentioned.
Andy Hicks: Jeffery has virtually the same number of targets and fantasy points as Brandon Marshall and should continue to be at the very least a top-20 wide receiver. It will be interesting to watch this situation over the next couple of weeks to see how the pass distribution works, but Jeffery looks a solid contender to be a big contributor to fantasy rosters.
Mark Wimer: I think that for purposes of 2013, Jeffery, Allen and Hilton are all for real, every-week contenders to start on most fantasy rosters. Jeffery has become a strong compliment to Brandon Marshall, and with Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte for opposing defenses to worry about, he should very rarely be double-covered. This will continue to create multiple opportunities for consistent reception totals week in and week out.
How about the Chargers' Keenan Allen?
Jason Wood: I loved Allen coming into the NFL and thought he might take some time because he was coming off an injury and the Chargers had a deep receiving corps. But injuries to the likes of Alexander and Floyd have forced Allen onto the field and he's made the most of it. He's a smooth route runner, attacks that ball and has obvious rapport with Philip Rivers. If you haven't rostered him already, he needs to be someone you spend big $$$ on in free agency this week.
Matt Waldman: Allen was my No. 2 receiver in the 2013 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. While there were eight receivers in this draft class I considered for the top spot, the one player who never really moved down as I ranked players was this rookie from Cal. Rivers loves to throw the ball to tall receivers capable of winning it in coverage and Allen was drafted for this purpose. However Allen is quicker than Vincent Jackson, which makes him a better route runner against tight man coverage. He's not as dangerous down field as Jackson, but he's more versatile with the route tree and as a ball carrier. Go get him.
Jeff Pasquino: He is right there now for solid production, and both he and Vincent Brown are the starters for the Chargers going forward. Philip Rivers is playing well, and the recipe is right for solid passing game production -- no real ground game to speak of in San Diego. Allen is a WR3 at worst and offers high end WR2 with upside, so he is well worth grabbing if he is on your waiver wire.
Andy Hicks: He has burst into prominence over the last two weeks and I think that Vincent Brown and Keenan Allen are the receivers to own in San Diego. Allen has size and Philip Rivers is definitely getting back to his form from 2008 to 2010. Allen is still a rookie though so his upside is as a WR2.
Mark Wimer: Allen is in a great situation since attrition in front of him has allowed him a chance to prove himself -- he's got a clear claim to starting in San Diego going forwards in my opinion.
Is Terrance Williams a decent fantasy option even after Miles Austin returns to the lineup?
Jason Wood: Williams came into the league a bit more raw, but has looked the part now that he's getting major snaps. With Miles Austin having hamstring issues AGAIN, I think Williams stands a very real shot at remaining the starter even if Austin returns. With a quarterback like Romo and an aggressive mentality by play-caller Bill Callahan, Williams can continue to produce as a high upside WR3.
Matt Waldman: I like Williams as a Chad Johnson-type player. He works hard at the game and has improved every year I've seen him from Baylor through this rookie season. He has a shot to be a solid WR3 with WR2 upside during his career.
Jeff Pasquino: Solid performance last week, but how often will Romo throw for 500 yards? Probably not again this year (although he does play the Eagles twice). I like Williams, especially if Austin can't get healthy, but even if Williams is a starter, he is the third target at best behind Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, plus Dallas likes to run the ball if they can. I don't see more than flex appeal for fantasy lineups for Williams.
Andy Hicks: He would be the one on this list I'd expect the least from. Tony Romo isn't going to throw for 500 yards every week and Miles Austin will be back soon, so Williams will be doing well to get 5 targets a game. Of course he only got 4 against Denver and look how he did. I'm pretty confident however in predicting that this will be his one and only monster game, but he could be useful in deeper leagues.
Mark Wimer: Williams is someone to consider in favorable situations (like when Miles Austin's hamstring keeps him out of action), but I don't think he'll become an every-week fantasy starter this year.
What's your take on the Colts' T.Y. Hilton?
Jason Wood: Hilton has the best resume of this group but the new offensive system by Pep Hamilton is a poor fit for Hilton to deliver CONSISTENT results. We saw last week what he's capable of if he gets vertical, but that's not going to happen every week. His boom-or-bust potential makes him someone I'm not intrigued to have in my lineup but could live with in 12-team leagues.
Matt Waldman: I can say that even in Pep Hamilton's offense, Hilton is earning consistent, deep targets and red zone targets. The wild card to me isn't Hamilton as much as it is the offensive line's ability to give Andrew Luck time to deliver an accurate deep pass. Still, I think Hilton is more likely a WR3 as Wood states.
Jeff Pasquino: Any consistently performing receiver for Andrew Luck has solid fantasy value. Hilton can get deep in a hurry too, adding to his upside. The Colts have a quick strike offense with Hilton, and in the right matchups he can really stretch the field. He struggled to get consistent work before DHB was injured, but now that he's finally out of the WR2 picture, Hilton has taken over a lot of work and owned that opportunity.
Andy Hicks: Is your typical borderline WR2-3. He'll have big games and he'll have stinkers depending on matchups. He truly has outshone Darrius Heyward-Bey and with Reggie Wayne well into the veteran stage, Hilton could push for WR2 reckoning sooner rather than later.
Mark Wimer: Hilton is a guy I've liked since last year, and I rostered him in many of my fantasy leagues. Darrius Heyward-Bey has never been a particularly healthy or consistently productive player, and I didn't expect him to suddenly transform into a stud for Indianapolis. Sure enough, he missed time in training camp and regular season, and now Hilton has proven his value to the Colts' offense -- going forwards I expect to see Hilton targeted as much or more than Reggie Wayne on a weekly basis.
And the Giants' Rueben Randle?
Jason Wood: I think Randle has the skill set to be the best of this quintet but is hamstrung by having a pair of elite receivers (Cruz and Nicks) ahead of him. If Nicks or Cruz got hurt and were out for an extended time, Randle becomes an every week start.
Matt Waldman: Physically, I agree with Wood about Randle. Technically, I'd rather have Nicks and Cruz. However, the big guy with speed is developing nicely and don't have much more to add than what Wood mentioned.
Jeff Pasquino: I like him, but only in certain matchups. With no ground game right now in New York for the Giants, Eli Manning has to throw. Brandon Myers has been a recent no-show, and some teams are scheming away Victor Cruz. That made Hakeem Nicks and Randle step forward against Philadelphia last week, and Randle showed that he can perform. The third WR for the Giants usually does have value, and that can skyrocket if Nicks or Cruz gets banged up -- something that is more likely to happen than not.
Andy Hicks: The biggest obstacle for Randle is one similar to Terrance Williams. There are just too many good targets ahead of him right now. Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks are outperforming Randle and while he clearly has talent, he needs consistent opportunity to be reliable for your fantasy roster. Out of all these guys I think Jeffery and Randle are future WR1's. Jeffery has a chance this year. Randle will have to wait his turn.
Mark Wimer: Like Terrance Williams, Rueben Randle has too many veteran studs in front of him to become a consistent, every-week fantasy producer.
Your best buy-low candidates
What player do you think has had his reputation sullied by a lack of production so far, but you'd be willing to bet on his ability to turn things around and lead you to the fantasy playoffs?
Let's start with quarterbacks.
Dave Larkin: Robert Griffin III III springs to mind. There were signs against Oakland that he starting to get more comfortable. With no preseason, the expectations for him to return and slot right in at his former level of play were ridiculous. With the Redskins defense giving up points for fun, Griffin will be involved in a lot of shootouts for the rest of the year, so I expect his value to skyrocket in time.
Andrew Garda: Riffing off of what Dave says, the narrative for Robert Griffin III III has been Adrian Peterson did it, what about him?
So let's keep that up.
Early on last season, Peterson didn't quite look like himself. It was clear he was rusty and not quite himself and he struggled to put up the numbers we had come to expect. Oh, he had some nice games -- Week 1 & 4 come to mind -- but it was fair to wonder if he would ever return to "ALL DAY" status.
Then Week 7 hit and the rest is history.
Griffin is still finding his feet, getting used to playing and getting hit. Is he 100%? Like Peterson, the answer is likely no. However, as Dave points out, he has started to come around. While it was statistically his worst game, he looked more comfortable against Oakland than any time previous. A week off will help and he has some good defensive matchups to take advantage of as well. He'll turn it around.
Jason Wood: Robert Griffin III III is a good one, and I would add Tom Brady to that mix. Gronkowski is due back soon, and I'm comfortable with the fact they took their time getting him on the field. I see Brady as a top 10 guy most weeks once Gronkowski is back particularly with Edelman and Thompkins giving them SOMETHING on the outside.
Matt Waldman: Quarterback? Russell Wilson. He's the No.13 QB right now, but there are too many win-win factors in his favor. First, the offensive line should get healthy enough down the stretch that his passing efficiency should climb. In the meantime, he'll be earning enough yards on the ground to bolster that average. The Seahawks have also faced quality defensive lines like Carolina, Houston, and San Francisco. The next 8-10 games feature mediocre defensive units, or solid-to-good units that perform best when its high-scoring offense gets an early lead. I also think the Seahawks have discovered it can diversify its receiving corps options based on the play of Jermaine Kearse and Doug Baldwin. It also means I think Golden Tate benefits. Wilson and Tate nearly connected on a bomb at the end of the half in the Colts' game where Tate was wide open. I think this connection will see a strong rebound in the coming weeks.
I'll also add Terrelle Pryor to the list. He's going to finish in the top-15 by year's end because of the softer schedule of defenses, his skill as a runner, and ability to find open receivers while negotiating the pass rush. This is not the same Pryor fans at Ohio State experienced. This guy has learned how to throw the football with actual fundamentals and he has integrated these skills with the ability to see the field and buy time. I'd be targeting Pryor as a QB2 who might provide me strong QB1 production down the stretch. Since NFL defenses are notoriously slow to catch up to what makes a player tick -- especially quarterbacks -- Pryor seems ripe to blossom with strong numbers in the second half. I'm not expecting him to go atomic like Russell Wilson or Cam Newton last year, but it will be better than an M-80.
Jeff Pasquino: As crazy as it sounds, I like Matt Schaub to rebound and be a guy who might help at quarterback. Just look at the Weeks 14 -- 16 schedule. At Jacksonville, at Indy, and hosting Denver. Tell me that isn't a good recipe for fantasy numbers. Then again, it is Matt Schaub. Maybe I'll stick with Arian Foster, Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels (who should be back by then). Another favorable schedule for me is San Diego (NYG, at Denver, Oakland).
Andy Hicks: Cam Newton has heavily underperformed so far this season and there are several reasons why. Poor play calling, underperforming receivers and a lame duck head coach are just a few that stand out. I have a feeling once they let Newton play to his best, then he'll be back among the elite QBs in the league. Right now he is a matchup play only, but he is better than that. His owners will need a little more patience as the longer Carolina lose, the more likely Newton is to be their only saving grace.
Mark Wimer: I find the Josh Freeman move to Minnesota intriguing. With Peterson to menace teams and keep defenders close to the line of scrimmage (much as Doug Martin did for Freeman, Williams and Jackson last year), I think Freeman may surprise once he is handed the keys in Minnesota. I'm holding him in a number of fantasy leagues and seeking to acquire him in others as once he starts hooking up with Greg Jennings regularly his fantasy value will shoot back up.
How about running backs?
Andrew Garda: I believe Trent Richardson will turn things around. People don't love his YPC right now (at 3.1 I can't fault them) but he's getting settled in the Indy offense, has already scored two out of three games since arriving with the Colts and looked sharp finishing off the game against the Seattle Seahawks. He's never going to see an eight man front again (thanks Cleveland) and with Ahmad Bradshaw hurt, his touches will stay nice and high.
Richardson is going to be hard pressed to hit the numbers we predicted preseason, but he will absolutely increase in value again over the rest of the season
Jason Wood: At running back, I'm not seeing a ton of obvious buy low value, by nature of the position, but would say that all things being equal I wouldn't give up on Chris Johnson or Lamar Miller. I'm also a buyer of C.J. Spiller if the owner is willing to throw in the towel after a rough opening month.
Matt Waldman: I agree with Wood on Spiller and I'd add Alfred Morris if anyone has lost a screw on that side of their head, too. However, for more discerning leagues, give me David Wilson, Darren McFadden, and Ryan Mathews. I think if you have to take a risk to save your season with a player to blow up later, these are three candidates I'd consider in that order. These teams have the right kind of thing happening offensively -- or at least the potential in the Giants' case -- and the schedule to produce like RB1s down the stretch.
Andy Hicks: Nobody is giving up on Doug Martin despite his lack of production so far. Like Jason, I still see value in Chris Johnson. After six weeks last year he was similarly without a rushing touchdown and averaging 3.2 yards a carry. At least this year he has a receiving touchdown. Johnson is annoying to fantasy owners as his failures are crippling to your fantasy lineup, but like in week 7 last year he is capable of 200 yard games with multiple touchdowns. Keep the faith.
Any wide receivers?
Jason Wood: At wide receiver, the guy atop my list was Hakeem Nicks, but that window may have closed after this past week's strong performance. Looking for another option, my heart says Dwayne Bowe but my head says otherwise. One guy I'm really warming up to is Greg Jennings. Sure he is coming off a 2 TD game but I'm more excited by Josh Freeman's signing. Freeman may have his faults but he throws a nice deep ball, witness what he did for Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson last year.
Matt Waldman: I already mentioned Golden Tate. I'd salvage Vincent Brown. The Chargers weren't using Brown as well as they could have early in the season. They were targeting him on deeper sideline fades in tight coverage. Brown isn't a speedster; he's a route technician. Get him in the slot or use him on routes where he break hard against tight man or works under off man coverage and zone to get open. Do that and Brown will help the Chargers move the chains and then throw the double-move for the long ball. This worked well last weekend against a tougher-than-we-thought Raiders secondary. Then go to Keenan Allen -- the other guy you need to acquire -- who can out-muscle, out-leap, or out-quick opponents on those fade routes. Allen might well be this year's Mike Williams during the second half of the season.
I'd stick with Kenbrell Thompkins. I know I'm reading that he's going to fade away with Danny Amendola back and Rob Gronkowski returning. I'm not buying it for a second. First, Thompkins is the best deep threat they have. Second, he is still more sure-handed than Aaron Dobson and he'll likely earn more looks downfield with safeties occupied by Gronkowski and Amendola. Third, are you really believing that Amendola will finish the season? Just because he got hurt once doesn't mean he won't get hurt again. He and Edelman have as history of reserving training room space well in advance of the season's end.
Whatever wide receiver the Falcons sign who is a veteran or available via trade. Will they make a deal with Cleveland for Gordon? Convince Brandon Lloyd that Zombie movies are cool, but not as cool as the Dirty Bird? I'd consider Harry Douglas as an upgrade based solely on volume of targets if Jones misses time and nothing changes. I'd even wonder if a player like tight end Levine Toilolo sees more time in the offense and the Falcons opt for more two-tight end sets.
Andy Hicks: Again like Jason, I like Dwayne Bowe, but I'm going with my head here. Right now he's not even worth a flex, but his breakout game is coming. Kansas City have played with leads for a lot of the year and played conservatively. They have demonstrated that when they are behind though, Bowe will be a frequent target. A fed up Bowe owner should be easy to make a deal with in most circumstances.
Anyone else to consider?
Jeff Pasquino: A few players to consider are those on the IR / designated to return list -- Andre Brown in New York, Michael Crabtree in San Francisco, Dennis Pitta in Baltimore, Shane Vereen in New England, and Percy Harvin in Seattle. All could be healthy and productive down the stretch.
Trent Richardson
How likely is it that Trent Richardson just isn't all that good an NFL running back?
Dave Larkin: Many people will point to Richardson's 3.1 yards-per-carry average this season and label him a disappointment, but I'm not ready to put him into that category just yet. What fantasy owners have to accept about him is that he will rarely break off big runs (his long was only 32 yards last season on 267 touches) and his yardage will come in small chunks throughout a game. That doesn't mean he can't be a productive starting running back, and at minimum an RB2 with upside going forward. As he becomes more comfortable in Pep Hamilton's system in Indianapolis -- and with the Colts shifting gears to a more run-based attack -- Richardson will get his opportunities and flourish.
Andrew Garda: I don't think it's the case at all that he's just not a good running back. Now, is he as good as what he was drafted at? It seems likely that he isn't but that shouldn't damn him to "not good" status. As Dave said, he'll get more comfortable in the offense, which is a ton better than what he had in Cleveland, and he'll produce. For fantasy, he's likely going to top out as a RB2 with some upside -- maybe fringe RB1 if he stays healthy.
Will he be elite? No, probably not. But he'll still be a good running back.
Jason Wood: I'm worried. I keep hearing how the 3.0 yards per carry doesn't matter. OK, but what about the fact he's done this with how many coaches now? With how many different supporting casts? In games he's winning and games he's losing? Just strikes me like we're all desperate to make excuses for the guy (and keep in mind he's on two of my three dynasty teams) but the results are NOT there. Right now I think you have to re-set expectations and hope he turns into the likes of an Eddie George...someone who can run with power and stay healthy enough to eke out 1,200 yards on the ground, on 280-300 carries each year to go along with a handful of touchdowns.
Matt Waldman: It's highly unlikely that Richardson will be a bust. However, if you asked people the same question of Ray Rice after his first year, Marshawn Lynch after his third year, and Bilal Powell after his second year, they'd have told you to give up on them. Greg Cosell told me after watching Rice for two games that he didn't think Rice had the quickness to be an NFL back despite loving him at Rutgers. Lynch barely skated above four yards per crack during his first two years and was under that average mark in year three. Powell barely got enough carries to begin with and when he did it was behind a struggling offensive line and quarterback.
I could name several more, but let's end with Marshall Faulk. After a promising rookie year, Faulk went two seasons with yards-per-carry averages of 3.7 and 3.0 with the Colts. This fourth and fifth seasons with 4.0 and 4.1 yards per carry weren't all that impressive, either. Not compared to what he did in St. Louis. Faulk was labeled a malcontent for complaining about the offensive line and eventually dealt to the Rams where the next three seasons he averaged 5.5, 5.4, and 5.3 yards per rush.
A talented running back is only one factor in a decent running game. There are exceptions, but they are exceptional: Peterson, Payton, Brown, and Sanders. The problem is it's human nature to equate "good" with "exceptional" and that's a perception issue. Trent Richardson is a good NFL running back, but good NFL running backs also need good linemen, good quarterback play, and the right fit for their talents.
Richardson is a talented power back with a mix of skills that stylistically put him in the spectrum of runners like Frank Gore and Marshawn Lynch. Gore, who has never dipped below three yards per carry, saw his ypc dip from 5.4 of his second season to 4.2 and 4.3 in years three and four because the offensive scheme placed him closer to the line of scrimmage and used him and the blocking scheme in a different capacity than before. Lynch, Gore, and Richardson, are power runners with shifty agility.
This requires a powerful offensive line and good timing with blockers that is developed over the course of a season. We're willing to give a quarterback and receiver a first-year mulligan when they change teams so they gain rapport. However, why aren't we willing to give a running back the same consideration when working with five new linemen and a tight end? There is timing involved that comes with reps.
Based on what I've seen with Richardson's games versus the Colts, he has looked good. He's breaking tackles, making defenders miss when there's a real opportunity for him to do so, and making sound choices given the creases that have or haven't developed ahead of him. If you watch the past two weeks of games, you'll notice that those longer runs that Donald Brown are breaking come on passing downs/situations versus defenses clearly playing the pass. Richardson has seen nearly as many of these situations when the Colts hand him the ball.
There is too much "spin" in our culture and when it comes to sport, everyone is "great." When it comes to running backs, there is only one "great" running back playing today and his name is Adrian Peterson. Ray Rice, Arian Foster, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Doug Martin, Frank Gore, and Marshawn Lynch are very good running backs capable of great moments, but there's a difference. Marshall Faulk? Transcendent in the right offense.
Richardson has the power, quickness, and vision to develop into a back with great moments if he and the Colts and develop a sound ground game in terms of rapport and greater development/talent along the line of scrimmage. In fantasy football speak that's RB1 productivity. I wouldn't quit on Richardson. I'd simply scale back the hype meter where every first-round back is expected to be transcendent.
Jeff Pasquino: I disagree whole-heartedly with the notion that Richardson isn't very good. Richardson has looked good as a rusher on several carries last week, but when you face Seattle, that's not a fair test as far as your performance. He is well worth consideration as a feature tailback, and now on a good offense he has a higher floor with a great ceiling for weekly production.
Andy Hicks: I was quite a bit lower on Richardson than most were during the preseason due to his below-average yards-per-carry last season. But while he was overhyped before the season started, the pendulum may have now swung a bit too far the other way. He is learning another new offense on a team that can't run the ball well, and he's coming off a win over Seattle. Strong criticism under those circumstances seems unfairly harsh. Seattle has an extremely good run defense, so it's not surprising that Richardson didn't look like Jim Brown against them. Richardson hasn't given any evidence that he is a special back, there's no reason to think he can't be a compiler with decent fantasy value.
Mark Wimer: I think Jason and Andy right on about Trent Richardson -- there's nothing wrong with having an Eddie George type back on your real NFL team or on your fantasy roster. Richardson may not be the next Adrian Peterson, but he will be worthwhile as a reliable fantasy RB 2, grinding out 100ish yards on 30ish carries week in and week out.
Matt Schaub
Are we done with Matt Schaub in leagues that start one QB?
Dave Larkin: Unless you get deducted points for pick-sixes, I don't think it's quite time to pull the plug on Schaub. After all, he is still one of 32 starting quarterbacks with an above average supporting cast. He will have his good days, but he should be no more than a mid-range QB2 as long as his poor play continues. He seems to be at a low ebb in terms of confidence, and one wonders if he'll be able to recover or if we're seeing a Jake Delhomme-like decline.
Andrew Garda: He's always been a matchup wonder, so really not much has changed -- though when he misses, he misses big. The problem now is the immense amount of turnovers. Forget the pick-sixes for a moment -- if that's possible given the record-setting pace of them -- but he has some bad matchups coming soon. Kansas City, Indianapolis (twice), New England, and the Broncos look like poor games in the making and honestly, St. Louis and Oakland could be problematic as well.
On top of that, does he even keep the job all season long? I haven't been his biggest fan -- I started saying the Texans needed to move on as far back as last season -- but even I'm shocked at how badly he's played. I'm not quite ready to punch the eject button yet, but I am absolutely looking for other options if I am a Schaub owner.
Jason Wood: Yes. He's not a fantasy QB1 and there's such depth at QB this year that you can certainly roster a more compelling backup option in 10- and 12-team leagues. This isn't a talent issue, it's a confidence issue and there's very little in the way of recent NFL history to point to a QB losing his way and then re-finding it, at least in that same season and playing for the same team.
Matt Waldman: Nope. But we were never beginning with Matt Schaub as a starter in a one-QB league in 2013 in the first place. He's still a viable QB2 with a schedule and surrounding talent to climb from the ditch he's dug and post stats that will help fantasy owners. Even veterans go through bad stretches. Again, please don't compare a player like Schaub to the highest standard of quarterbacking and conclude he's bad like some folks are doing with Trent Richardson. While there's good reason to drop Schaub and take options from the waiver wire who are producing, it doesn't mean you should forget about the Houston quarterback -- especially down the stretch.
Andy Hicks: High team expectations have consequences when they go unmet. We are now at the stage where Schaub could get the hook very quickly in any game, meaning he is useless in start-one QB leagues. He does get a chance to put a nice game together against the Rams, but should he continue his pick 6 streak then we will see T.J. Yates or Case Keenum sooner rather than later.
Mark Wimer: Matt hit the nail on the head with Schaub -- he's a solid QB 2 to plug in when the matchup is favorable. Heck, people are acting like he didn't throw for 355 yards passing and two TDs (with two interceptions) against the Seahawks' uber-secondary just two weeks ago. Calm down people -- Schaub has enough talent around him to keep him fantasy relevant. In some cases you may wish to start him outright. In any case, T.J. Yates and Case Keenum aren't the answer for this year and I don't see a scenario short of serious injury to Schaub where those other guys get a significant number of snaps.
Broncos vs. Jaguars
What do you make of the Broncos-Jaguars game this Sunday? Obviously, anyone who has Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker, and Knowshon Moreno is going to start them, but how deep can we keep going? Is Ronnie Hillman a good start? Or should we actually be tempering our expectations for the starters a bit this week as guys like Montee Ball or Virgil Green or even Brock Osweiler might get significant playing time?
Dave Larkin: It wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Broncos, holding a 30-point lead in the third quarter, take out most of their starters. I can see Ball and Hillman getting the majority of the touches as the team bids to keep Moreno fresh for tougher opponents. The usual suspects will get their points, so I wouldn't be too worried about reduced playing time. Manning and co. could get their usual full game points output in a half... really.
Andrew Garda: I think Hillman is a decent start in addition to the guys you mentioned -- he has been getting about 10 carries a game since Week 3 so I can see that happening against Jacksonville. Ball is a decent "what the heck flex" because the only time he sees the field is when the game is essentially over and that could be the case early -- so we could see him for as long a look as a whole half.
I'm not worried about the Broncos main starters sitting early though -- this is a team that doesn't take its foot off the gas. At all. They like to score 45-50 points and then -- maybe -- they pull starters. So don't worry about that.
Matt Waldman: I would expect many of the starters you mentioned to play 3-3.5 quarters and call it a day. However, in that span of time they should acquire enough production that it would be foolish to bench any of them. If you're desperate for a bye-week flex and need someone to start, I'd recommend players slated to see the field for four quarters before taking a shot on a guy who might get a touchdown or a big play within a span of 7-15 minutes.
Jeff Pasquino: Denver could break the scoreboard by halftime, but we could see Brock Osweiler playing in the third quarter. Peyton really doesn't want to run it up on an opponent (his 7th passing TD was a broken play where Thomas ran most of the yardage), so a 35-3 halftime could be cause for a white flag in the second half. I think all Broncos could be in the mix for production, but it could be less than you might think for the starters (Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker, Knowshon Moreno) as they could get yanked early in the second half. One player I would like is Matt Prater, as he will be busy all day, and Denver may pull back to posting field goals rather than TDs late.
Andy Hicks: Let's not get carried away. How far in front does Denver have to be to start pulling their starters? With time still on the clock they'll be playing until the late 3rd quarter. If Denver is leading by less than 4 touchdowns they'll still be in the game until the early 4th. Denver has shown that their defense isn't that great and while I wouldn't expect to see Jacksonville playing like Dallas, a few touchdowns isn't out of the question, especially with Justin Blackmon looking good. Play your obvious Denver starters and consider one of the other backs if you have depth issues. Thinking about Brock Osweiler or Virgil Green is how you lose matchups. Until Denver's defense starts earning respect then even a chronically bad offense like Jacksonville can still score on them and chew up the clock. Denver will win this game handily, but I have a feeling bookmakers are going to make a killing this weekend on this game.
Mark Wimer: I agree with Andrew that Hillman is someone to consider at running back this week -- the Broncos should crush the Jaguars in a big way and Hillman has seen enough work in competitive games to be flex-worthy some weeks. In this demolition we may see Hillman and Ball in by mid-third-quarter while the Broncos run out the clock on their 30+ point victory.
How do you like Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts this week as fantasy WRs as they try to (presumably) play catch-up with the Broncos? Any other Jaguars with decent potential this week?
Dave Larkin: Well, they're likely to attempt about 40+ passes as a team unless Gus Bradley decides to go into his shell late on and roll over. Blackmon played well last week in St Louis, but the quarterback play will limit his upside. Whether it is Gabbert or Henne starting, I wouldn't hold out too much hope for outstanding production, even in garbage time. They are the only Jaguars I would go near this week.
Andrew Garda: Blackmon and to an extent Shorts are the only two Jaguar players I'd play and I'm not all that hot on Shorts. But Maurice Jones-Drew is struggling, you couldn't pay me to touch any quarterback there, and beyond that it's a wasteland for fantasy. Still, Blackmon played with a chip on his shoulder last week and will again this Sunday and Shorts will get plenty of garbage time points.
Jason Wood: Blackmon clearly kept himself in shape and was ready to play fresh off the four game suspension. Although the long TD was a broken play, he made enough other plays to illustrate his value. Shorts meanwhile continues to find the end zone, and is oft targeted. I wouldn't be afraid of having either player in my lineup this week, although I think it's sometimes lazy analysis to equate playing "catch up" as a reason to like a player. The Jaguars are just a bad team and the Broncos are -- generally -- a good defense. I could see the Jaguars being completely shut down and blown out and so I wouldn't necessarily value either Blackmon or Shorts as more than a low end WR2 this week.
Matt Waldman: Blackmon and Shorts are must-starts in most leagues with 3-5 receiving options as it is. They're the only two reliable players I'd target among Jaguars' options.
Jeff Pasquino: Jacksonville should have plenty of garbage time production between Blackmon and Shorts. I would even consider Henne if you are desperate at QB (or have a bye week to cover). Other than that, I would not bother with any other Jaguars.
Andy Hicks: You have to play Blackmon, Shorts and Jones-Drew this week. Denver is really missing Von Miller and even with the problems at quarterback, Jacksonville should put up 20 points or more this week, as has every offense the Broncos have played so far. Even the Giants put up 23 against them. Jones-Drew could get a stack of points when Gabbert or Henne has to dump it off.
Zac Stacy
What is Zac Stacy's realistic upside potential from here on out?
Andrew Garda: Upside? I can see RB2. I liked what I saw from him but the offense seems to put the "fun" in "dysfunctional" and overall they just don't move the ball well game-to-game.
Jason Wood: At this point handicapping the Rams is next to impossible. Lance Kendricks is outperforming Jared Cook. Austin Pettis is outperforming Chris Givens. Brian Quick is getting more snaps than Tavon Austin. Daryl Richardson can't get out of his own way and Isaiah Pead appears to be a hated man. Stacy looked good this week, but it's a small sample size and an unfair litmus test. You need to roster him because of the last man standing rule. At this point we know Pead isn't going to be the guy, and Richardson has had his chances and done nothing. Ergo, Stacy is the top option because he hasn't been given the chance to disappoint us yet.
If he keeps the starting job, I think realistically he becomes a weekly flex play (i.e., RB22-30 range).
Matt Waldman: Low-end RB2/High-end flex. Stacy is in the same spectrum of player as Fred Jackson and Joique Bell: quicker than fast; determined; and patient. I don't think he's as talented as either back, but the gap isn't so large that he can't achieve similar production as they demonstrated with their first extended looks if Stacy is given enough carries in the Rams offense. I think flex-play production is the safer upside considering that the team doesn't want to use him as its bell cow. He's worth adding or keeping.
Jeff Pasquino: I think he is a committee back, but will lead the committee of he and Daryl Richardson. Stacy has upside, but keep in mind that he faced Jacksonville last week, so his numbers on a per carry basis might be inflated. He is more of a flex start RB for me at best.
Andy Hicks: RB2/Flex potential at best. Stacy ran well against Jacksonville. Let that sink in. We'll see how he goes against a defense with real NFL players in Houston. St. Louis have tried 4 guys at back this year and clearly haven't found a guy yet. Until Sam Bradford can get some rhythm and pass with fluency it really doesn't matter who the Rams line up in the backfield anyway. Stacy has hope, but I'll save the full evaluation until he gets more opportunity.
Cardinals RBs
How likely is it that Andre Ellington will surpass Rashard Mendenhall as the Cardinals' starter by around the mid-season point?
Dave Larkin: Based on what I saw of the pair against Carolina this past week, Ellington is the far more explosive back who can threaten the edge of the defense, as well as between the tackles. Mendenhall, meanwhile, looks rather pedestrian and can't create behind this offensive line with his limited skill set as a runner. Ellington should see more touches, especially if the Cardinals are in catch-up mode.
Andrew Garda: If it was me running the team, it would have already happened (with Stefan Taylor or Alfonso Smith backing him up) because Mendenhall has always looked unimpressive this season. Ellington just has more hop to his runs and looks better than Mendenhall.
I'm not running the Cardinals though, and they seem a bit stubborn on this point. So I think fantasy owners will have to wait through a continued split for longer than the midway point -- though I do expect to see him take the job by year's end.
Jason Wood: It should be very likely, but it looks otherwise thanks to Bruce Arians' stubbornness. Arians made a point of calling Ellington a '30-32 touch' guy after this week's strong effort, and indicated he doesn't believe Ellington can handle a full time workload. While we may disagree with his assessment, he gets to make those calls. My only hope is that Ellington continues to do more with his touches and essentially make it impossible for the team to not give him a chance. I'm a believer in the talent, and am rostering him on a good many teams. He can't be in your lineup though until we see Arians' relent on his current opinion.
Matt Waldman: I think the Cardinals should consider it, but I don't think it's likely unless Mendenhall can't go. Bruce Arians wanted Mendenhall in Arizona and that relationship was forged when they were in Pittsburgh. It will take a lot for Mendenhall to cede the starting role to Ellington. I think Arians sees the rookie as that Donald Brown-Mewelde Moore-Willie Parker like change-up. Of course, Fast Willie carried the mail for a while, too.
I also think it's good to take the approach to believe only a fraction of what you read when it comes to what coaches say. Arians very well could see Ellington as a player capable of 30-35 touches this year, but future years it's a different story. I like Ellington's explosiveness and receiving skill. I'm not a believer that he's a special back, but he's capable of splitting the carries and developing into a lead back. He's worth acquiring if it's a cheap acquisition, but don't think you're prospecting for diamonds when what you'll find is silver and bronze.
Jeff Pasquino: Ellington looked very quick and much more productive on limited touches, but if Arians is smart, those touches will continue to increase. Mendenhall is not what he used to be -- which was never that good in the first place.
Andy Hicks: I think Matt made the perfect comparison. I thought of Mewelde Moore when I see what is happening here. Moore excelled in limited touches, but whenever he got a lot he didn't play as well. Ellington is the preferred receiving back so will have value no matter how much he runs the ball, but until he can prove he can handle 15 carries at this level, then I'd be slightly wary. Mendenhall is hardly dazzling, but will handle a workload. Until Ellington gets the carries, then he'll be overvalued on limited touches.
That will do it for this edition of the Footballguys Roundtable. Please join us again next week.