This week we discuss the following:
- Partial answers
- Darren McFadden vs. Chargers
- Doug Martin: Buy Low?
- Philip Rivers: Sell High?
- LeVeon Bell's prospects
- Roddy White vs. Dwayne Bowe
- Alex Smith: Legit QB1?
- Daily Games
Partial Answers
We're a quarter of the way through the NFL regular season, so it's a good time to revisit some of the issues that seemed unclear before the season started. We have at least partial answers to a few question now, so I'll throw some out there for discussion, starting with:
Can DeAndre Hopkins make a big impact as a rookie?
Greg Russell: Many people regarded DeAndre Hopkins as the most NFL-ready receiver in his draft class, if not the one with the highest ceiling. Moving into the Texans lineup on the other side of the field from Andre Johnson, the two biggest questions were whether Hopkins could live up to his NFL-ready billing, and whether he would see enough passes to be fantasy significant this year.
The first question has already been solidly answered. Hopkins has shown outstanding hands, and while his vertical leap is not particularly elite, his ability to bring in a jump ball contested by a defender is. Hopkins lacks top end speed, but has sufficiently developed route running to get open to the degree someone with his catching ability needs.
The larger and still only partially answered question, then, is whether Hopkins will see enough targets to be a fantasy significant receiver. Andre Johnson has had to leave two of the team's four games so far, and in both cases Hopkins was immediately turned to as a major part of the passing game. When Johnson is playing, however, Hopkins probably is not seeing enough targets to be much more than a fantasy WR3. Matt Schaub in particular is a quarterback who focuses on the players that he is the most comfortable with, and that is Andre Johnson. Throw in the shortage of red zone targets caused by the Texans' reliance on Arian Foster and their tight ends, and Hopkins may be a frustrating player for those looking for consistent scoring.
Adam Harstad: I try to be very cautious when reacting to the first four games of the season. The sample sizes are still so tiny that a single fluke can skew everything pretty dramatically. If a player or coach has been in the league for a while, I do not easily override my previous opinions, (which were based on years' worth of evidence), based solely on the four most recent games played.
With that said, there's still been plenty of opportunity to gain clarity. I was a big fan of DeAndre Hopkins coming in, but like Greg, I wondered how pro-ready his game really was. So far, the answer has been "very."
Who are some of the other rookies people were expecting to make an immediate impact?
Adam Harstad: I questioned whether Tyler Eifert would look as good as everyone said he would (he has), and whether he'd be able to push Jermaine Gresham aside (as of yet, he has not). I know that Justin Hunter's athleticism had a lot of people excited, but I questioned how well he'd be able to translate it to the bigger, faster NFL. That's still an open question as Hunter has struggled to get on the field, but early returns have been favorable. I really liked this year's crop of rookie tight ends coming in, and I was eager to see them in action. So far, most of those questions remain unanswered as the only rookies getting four or more targets per game are Eifert and, surprisingly enough, Jordan Reed (who entered the season behind Fred Davis and was considered a year or two away).
Is it too soon to think we've learned much about how the new head coaches will fare in the NFL?
Adam Harstad: I questioned how the new coaches would transition to the NFL, and while Chip Kelly's offense has lived up to my expectations, Marc Trestman with his NFL-ready protections and Doug Marrone with his 3-WR sets and blistering tempo have been the real surprises so far.
Last year, the read-option was the hot new trend. But is it here to stay, or is it really more of a passing fad?
Ryan Hester: One thing I was fascinated by throughout last season and into this season was the prevalence and success of the read-option. While many quarterbacks in the league thrived in both reality and fantasy using that offense, it hasn't come back with as much pizzazz as many thought it would.
Defenses studied it throughout the offseason, but it seems as if teams simply aren't using it as much this season. In my eyes, the reason for this is that these teams realized their franchise went as their quarterback went, and they didn't want to subject him to 16-plus games worth of big hits. Defenses can simply attack the mesh point of the read-option and force the quarterback to give or get hit. While it leaves them susceptible to big runs by the backs, it's a gamble they're willing to take because the offenses don't seem willing to stick with it and subject their quarterback to handful of extra unnecessary hits each game.
Perhaps these teams (Seattle, Washington, San Francisco, Carolina, etc) will bring back the read-option later in the season, but it appears that it has been relegated to an offensive accessory rather than an offensive staple.
Heading into last season, one of the questions was whether Peyton Manning had anything left to offer as an NFL quarterback. He decisively answered that question last year, but is it possible that he's still improving?
Adam Harstad: Like most, I questioned how Peyton Manning could possibly keep all of his receivers involved in the offense, and apparently the answer is just "by shattering every record ever." Which raises a new question: can anyone stop Peyton Manning from shattering every record ever?
Mark Wimer: Adam is right on with this about Peyton Manning. The question right now is: who can stop the Broncos' passing attack? I don't recall an attack this automatic since the Greatest Show On Turf was at its height with Kurt Warner. Peyton Manning has been unreal so far this year.
How much does Steven Jackson have left in the tank?
Kyle Wachtel: To this point, Steven Jackson's start has been one of the frustrating occurrences of the season. Michael Turner's skills were eroding before our eyes, yet he continued to reach the end zone and maintained fantasy value even in his waning career. Jackson seemed to be a lock for 10+ touchdowns and a resurgent season alongside the best group of playmakers he has seen in his long, productive career.
However, a key word in the phrase "long, productive career" is "long." Age, plus wear-and-tear, cannot be ruled out as a contributing factor for the hamstring injury he suffered, as well as the multi-week recover it has necessitated. Another aspect I may have underestimated was Atlanta's weak run-blocking, which seems to nullify any benefit that the high-octane passing offense would have led to. Excluding Jackson's long run of 50 yards, he has only managed a paltry 2.08 yards on his other 13 carries.
Perhaps Jackson may return from the Falcons' Week 6 Bye and finish the season on the high note that many expected, but the hole that he dug his owners into to begin the season will be hard for many to overcome. With all this being said, if you're in a strong position after the season's first four weeks, I still may roll the dice on Jackson as a buy-low RB2 to solidify your team for the stretch run.
Do the Packers have a featured running back?
Mark Wimer: Until Brandon Meriweather fouled Eddie Lacy, it looked like the running back hierarchy was settled in Green Bay after most fantasy owners spent July/August debating between Lacy and Johnathan Franklin. However, with Lacy out Franklin redeemed a poor preseason with a solid 100+ yard rushing effort during week three, and now we're potentially back to square one in Green Bay where the work-sharing arrangement is up in the air. As a Lacy owner in multiple leagues I am really quite peeved by Meriweather concussing Lacy and throwing this situation back into contention. I will be watching this week's game closely to see how the coaching staff responds to the return of Lacy.
Adam Harstad: Don't forget James Starks, who has actually looked the best of the three in my opinion. And in dynasty, remember that the coaching staff was saying DuJuan Harris was the leader in the clubhouse for the starting job before his injury. All in all, Green Bay is a complete mess for fantasy purposes. They answered the question "will Green Bay's running game finally be fantasy relevant?" with a pair of back-to-back 100 yard rushing games, but they've only raised more questions about "who will be the beneficiary?" in the process.
Are the Lions a perfect fit for Reggie Bush?
Jeff Haseley: Reggie Bush has gone over 200 carries in a season only twice in his career, which happen to be the last two years. There was some doubt as to how often he would receive carries in Detroit. Would he be a true RB1 who can carry the load? Or would he be utilized mainly as a receiving back along the lines of Darren Sproles? A non-serious knee injury has held him to only three games or two and a half, if you count the game he was hurt. Even despite the injury setback, Bush has displayed elite fantasy RB production, totaling over 190 and 170 yards in the two full games he has played in. Joique Bell has shared some of the load this year, but so far it has not had any negative effect on Bush's production. There appears to be plenty of offense to go around for both backs to occupy a specific role and be productive. In the last four years Detroit has been a hotbed for receiving production from their running backs. Only New Orleans, San Diego and Baltimore have had more receptions to running backs than Detroit in that span. If I were a betting man, I'd say that trend will continue. Reggie Bush is exactly what Detroit's offense needs and Detroit is the perfect fit for his skill set. As long as he can stay healthy, he should put up elite RB1 numbers on a consistent basis for the rest of the season and finish in the Top 6, if not higher.
Darren McFadden vs. Chargers
With Darren McFadden and Marcel Reece banged up, Rashad Jennings may get the start at RB for the Raiders this week. If he does get the start against the Chargers, where do you rank him among this week's fantasy RBs?
Greg Russell: The Raiders have been successful in moving the ball on the ground, though much of that is Terrelle Pryor. Still, the team does have a favorable rushing match up against a Chargers defense that is worst in the league in terms of fantasy points given up to running backs. Nonetheless, I would look at Jennings as no higher than a top end RB2 this week.
Jeff Haseley: I think if Rashad Jennings starts this week vs. San Diego, he'll see A LOT of touches. Not only is Darren McFadden out, but so is Marcel Reece. That represents a major percentage of running back activity. Jennings may not finish the game with more than 75 rushing yards, but his combined rushing and receiving could very easily exceed 100 yards. Last week he had eight receptions. We could easily see 4-5 receptions, if not more. I see Jennings as a Top 12 RB, possibly higher if the reception totals rise.
Kyle Wachtel: Jennings could be in line for a heavy workload this weekend and that's something that cannot be overlooked. Although the Chargers have yet to allow a rushing touchdown, they have allowed opposing teams to rush for 4.52 yards-per-carry, which ranks them as the seventh worst team in the NFL. With four teams on their Bye Weeks, Jennings can be safely inserted as a strong RB2 this week.
Mark Wimer: Jennings enjoys a good matchup: The Chargers' rush D is 25th in the NFL averaging 120.5 yards allowed per game, with two rushing scores handed over to date. Dallas had 16/92/0 rushing last week, Tennessee put up 29/170/1 rushing on this group two weeks ago. Darren McFadden is a slow healer so I'd plug in Jennings as a starting running back this week just based on the upside of this matchup.
Ryan Hester: I have Jennings as RB12 in standard leagues and RB14 in PPR leagues. He's a solid play this week due to two of fantasy's biggest factors: opportunity and matchup (talent being the third).
Will Grant: Sorry, but the Chargers defense is pretty lousy this year and they are giving up a ton of points. I think Jennings is a solid RB2 option this week, and especially now that it looks like Terrelle Pryor will be in the starting lineup for the Raiders. The Chargers can't focus just on Jennings and stack the box -- they need to be aware that Pryor may take off as well.
Doug Martin: Buy Low?
Is Doug Martin a buy-low candidate?
Greg Russell: If a Martin owner is willing to part with him, definitely go and get him. The sheer number of touches that Martin is getting, however, makes me think you probably aren't going to find many willing to sell him low. A few more chances at touchdowns and Martin would be right back up competing for a spot among the elite running backs.
Adam Harstad: Like Greg, I have a hard time seeing many Doug Martin owners willing to sell low at this point. He was the #2 overall pick in most leagues, and he currently leads the NFL in carries. If the Martin owner in my league is starting to panic a little bit, or is worried about the sideshow that Tampa is turning into, I would gladly swoop in and take Martin off of his hands. He is one of maybe three or four backs that is an absolute lock for 300+ touches, barring injury. Tampa may be turning into a punch line, but it's still a punch line with fantastic offensive linemen, a lot of talent at receiver, and a punishing defense (arguably the best one east of Seattle). That's a recipe for fantasy success, even if Martin doesn't have the most efficient season from an NFL standpoint.
Jeff Haseley: Unless you can get him fairly low, I don't think he's a good candidate to buy in redraft leagues. The Buccaneers offense is a work in progress. Scoring has already been hard to come by, which doesn't help his overall numbers. Mike Glennon looks to be the quarterback-by-default for the rest of the year. What happens to the offense if he gets hurt? I'd shy away from Doug Martin.
Kyle Wachtel: My thoughts on Martin, whom I included in this week's Forensics Report, fall right in line with Greg's thoughts. While he hasn't lived up to expectations, he leads the NFL in both carries (100) and touches (107). With a workload like that, a drop-off in efficiency is doesn't hurt nearly as much, and he should perform closer to top-five running back for the duration of the season. It doesn't hurt to try getting him for a discount on his preseason ADP.
Mark Wimer: I'd pry him loose from his owners if possible - I still love his prospects no matter the guy slinging the football at quarterback.
Ryan Hester: Buy-low / sell-high questions are tricky because it depends what you're giving or getting. Martin, to me, is an RB in all formats the rest of the way. The offense isn't good, and the organization is a train wreck, tire fire, or whatever term you want to use, and Martin is just an RB2 right now with the benefit of a full 100 carries through four games. If you can trade RB2 value for him and your opinion of him is higher than mine, I'd do it.
Will Grant: The problem with Martin is that if you have him, you're never going to feel good about getting less than a 1st round quality player in return for him. If you don't have him, you're never going to give up a first-round quality player to get him on your team. If you can find an owner that's willing to give up Martin for a 4th round quality player, I'd say the upside potential is probably worth it. My guess is though that when you offer the owner a player like Frank Gore or Darren McFadden for Doug Martin, you probably won't get any takers.
Philip Rivers: Sell High?
Is Philip Rivers a sell-high candidate?
Greg Russell: I would sit on Rivers if I owned him. While he hasn't played particularly brutal pass defenses so far, his schedule the rest of the way is still reasonably favorable for a quarterback. Even the team's tough games, such as the pair of games against Denver, are likely to see Rivers throwing the ball for most of the game. Danny Woodhead has turned out to be an excellent signing by the team, and his use in the passing game should only encourage the team to throw the ball.
Adam Harstad: When we talked about the Chargers offense two weeks ago, I mentioned that I liked Rivers as a low-end top-12 option going forward. Two more weeks have passed, and Rivers has done nothing to dissuade me from that position; if anything, he's just reinforced the opinion. If you can find an owner who is willing to give you top-5 QB prices for Rivers, then that's an easy sell, but I think most owners are going to be cautious with him given his recent history. In that case, I'd much rather hold on to Rivers than sell him for low-end QB1 prices, even if he's just languishing on my bench as a backup. The analogy I used before was Kurt Warner- a former All Pro who was left for dead by the fantasy community after a couple of mediocre seasons, then came back to life and became one of the most valuable players in fantasy. I'm still not certain whether Rivers is going to turn out to be the next Kurt Warner or Rex Grossman (who was the #3 fantasy quarterback through four weeks in 2006), but unless someone makes me a sizeable offer, I'd rather hold on to Rivers and find out.
Jeff Haseley: Like most sell high candidates, it depends on what you can get. Rivers is showing that a good offensive game plan and philosophy is a catalyst to an able-armed quarterback. It also helps that Antonio Gates has rebounded back into form after two years of uncertainty and average results. If you drafted Rivers as your QB2 and your QB1 is meeting expectations, I say sell high and try to fill a weakness at either running back, wide receiver or tight end. He's a valuable commodity that perhaps the Russell Wilson owner might be interested in, especially if that same owner is 1-3 or 0-4 and desperately needs to make a move.
Kyle Wachtel: Rivers' resurgence is one of the most surprising story lines of the 2013 NFL Season. I'm still not sold on him being the elite quarterback he once was and the torrid start would normally make for a tremendous sell-high situation. Unfortunately, the depth of the quarterback pool in standard leagues has destroyed much of the position's allure as a commodity. It won't be easy getting much in return for a quarterback that most people have a hard time seeing as anything more than a back-end QB1.
Mark Wimer: As long as Antonio Gates doesn't fall apart, I think Rivers continues to perform well - the Chargers' D is weak and the Chargers offense is going to be in chase position frequently this year.
Ryan Hester: Rivers has started the season on fire, but saying he's a sell-high means you think he'll cool off considerably. I don't buy into that. This team's defense is atrocious, and it just lost Dwight Freeney (their only useful pass-rusher). The secondary wasn't good with the pass rush at full strength, so you can expect it to get worse before it gets better.
Rivers will be involved in shootouts throughout the year, making him a nice asset. If anything, he's a "buy" right now because it's fair to assume his owner hasn't used him yet, has a better quarterback on his roster, and might still think Rivers is the same guy from two or three years ago.
LeVeon Bell's prospects
Where do you rank LeVeon bell among RBs for the rest of this season?
Adam Harstad: In week 1, Isaac Redman led the Steelers backfield by playing in 55% of the team's offensive snaps. In week 2, Felix Jones was the top dog with 62% of the offensive snaps. In week 3, it was Jonathan Dwyer with 59% of the offensive snaps. In week 4, in his first game back from injury, LeVeon Bell put the committee to bed by playing 76% of Pittsburgh's offensive snaps. Isaac Redman was a healthy scratch, and Jones and Dwyer each got 10% or less of the available snaps. In other words, the Pittsburgh Steelers entered week 4 with a timeshare and exited it with a workhorse.
Pittsburgh is a bit of a mess right now. They're missing the best member on an offensive line that was pretty bad to begin with. As a team, their 3.2 yard per carry average ranks 29th in the league. I wouldn't expect much in the way of efficiency or consistency from LeVeon Bell. What I would expect, however, is a lot of volume. That kind of volume is a rare commodity at the RB position, and it's enough to make LeVeon Bell a very reliable RB2 going forward, ranking somewhere in the 18-20 range. He'll probably put up a lot of duds on the way, but it certainly won't be for lack of opportunity.
Jeff Haseley: I'm not necessarily going out of my way to acquire LeVeon Bell. He had a strong debut with two scores, but looking at the rest of the season, I don't see the Steelers offense improving that much. If the rest of the year plays out like the first quarter, Pittsburgh will be doing a lot of passing and less running. It all points to decreased production for Bell. I would definitely put him outside of the Top 20, probably closer to Top 25-30
Kyle Wachtel: In an age where workhorse backs are an endangered species, the opportunity that Bell will be afforded solidifies him as a sturdy RB2 for the rest of the way, which is enough to earn him a spot inside the Top-50 Overall.
Mark Wimer: Bell is in the third tier of running backs - guys who are worth a look as a flex or bye week option. The Steelers' offensive line is beat up and doing without C Maurkice Pouncey going forwards, so Bell will be a guy who perhaps starts some weeks against weaker run defenses.
Ryan Hester: I have Bell as RB19, which is more of a knock on the position as a whole than a tip-of-the-cap to Bell's situation and ability. His offensive line is so bad that the team - which should already be in rebuilding mode - traded a draft pick to get Levi Brown from Arizona. He's an improvement on Pittsburgh's current starters, but he's been a mediocre player his whole career. That's not going to change. Bell will get the volume, however, to be an RB2 play with RB1 upside in any given week if Pittsburgh can play a close game.
Roddy White vs. Dwayne Bowe
Who do you have more faith in going forward: Roddy White or Dwayne Bowe?
Greg Russell: For the short term I would have to go with Bowe, as White's ankle injury is still hindering him. Over the long term though, I would expect White to outproduce Bowe if his ankle fully recovers. While Alex Smith is playing fairly well for Kansas City, I don't believe he is the right quarterback to make as effective use of Bowe as a team can.
Adam Harstad: I would strongly prefer Roddy White at this point, simply because it seems like his team actually wants to use him. I have no idea why Kansas City paid Dwayne Bowe all that money this offseason, because 73 receivers average more targets per game so far this season. Please note that that is not a typo- seventy-three receivers have been targeted more frequently than Dwayne Bowe this year. Roddy White is clearly hampered by injury, and it's going to be frustrating trying to figure out whether to start him or sit him as he recovers, but not nearly as frustrating as starting Bowe and watching him get just three targets, as he did in week 3. At least we'll know when White is past his ankle sprain, while Bowe's inconsistencies might dog him all year. It's also worth noting that Roddy White's target totals have gone up every week, from 2 to 3 to 4 and up to 9 against New England.
Jeff Haseley: This is an easy one. Roddy White. When looking at the two quarterbacks, Matt Ryan is more of a lock to reach 4,000 yards passing and 30 touchdown passes than Alex Smith. I am convinced White's slow start is 100% related to his high ankle sprain. Once the Falcons return from their week 6 bye week, White should be a much more reliable receiver and the fantasy points should follow. I can't say the same for Dwayne Bowe's outlook going forward.
Kyle Wachtel: White and Bowe are headed in opposite directions. Alex Smith just simply won't be able to utilize Bowe's strength's and I would recommend that Bowe's owners do everything they can to unload him after a decent outing. White, on the other hand, should be a target for all savvy owner's to trade for. He has increased his snap percentage in every game and should be back to 100% before long. White is one of just two receivers to have recorded 7+ touchdowns in the past four seasons and has also finished among the top-12 receivers in each of the past five seasons.
Mark Wimer: Roddy White and it isn't close - once his ankle is healed up White will blow up as Ryan loves to throw at him. Jamaal Charles is the leading receiver in Kansas City, in contrast.
Ryan Hester: For me, it's Roddy White, and it's not close. White's bad season so far is due to injury - something that can improve by healing. Bowe's bad start is due to scheme and the fact that his strengths and his quarterback's strengths don't align. That's not going to change, especially on a 4-0 team.
Alex Smith: Legit QB1?
Alex Smith has been the #7 fantasy QB so far in standard scoring leagues. What are the odds he'll finish the year in the top twelve (barring injury)?
Greg Russell: I would bet on Smith finishing in the top twelve, though barely. Coach Andy Reid runs an offense that throws the ball as much as anyone. Smith has a very favorable string of passing defenses to play down the stretch as well. There are a number of quarterbacks who are just plain better that I expect will pass Smith as the season progresses, but top twelve is very much in Smith's range with the way the team is playing.
Adam Harstad: I'd rate them as vanishingly small, but not quite non-existent. So far, Alex Smith has been the beneficiary of byes (as Rodgers would certainly rank ahead of Smith, and Newton might well, too), and slow starts by several of the big names drafted early. He's also living off of unsustainable rushing production. Through four games, Alex Smith's yard-per-carry are nearly a yard and a half above his previous career average. Smith is already just 28 rushing yards away from setting a new career high. His rushing yards per game are nearly three times higher than his previous career best. If Alex Smith had produced at his 2012 rushing averages (his previous career best) instead of his 2013 averages, he would currently be QB15, just two tenths of a point ahead of Geno Smith.
Right now, Alex Smith does not rank in the top 10 of any major category except for sacks taken (9th-most in the NFL), passing touchdowns (in a 4-way tie for 9th), and interception rate (5th best in the league). For all the talk about how pass-heavy Andy Reid is, Smith ranks just 16th in passing attempts. He's 21st in passing yards, and a woeful 26th in yards per attempt (minimum 30 attempts). None of this inspires confidence in his ability to maintain starter-caliber production with his arm, and unless he manages to maintain his pace and rush for 600 yards on the season, I'm not at all optimistic about Smith's chances of remaining in the top 12 going forward.
Jeff Haseley: I'd say the likelihood that Alex Smith stays in the Top 12 is very low. If he continues to get an additional 3-4 fantasy points a game from rushing the ball, that may be the case, but I highly doubt his new found running ability will be sustained. Also take a look at who the Chiefs have played - JAC, PHI and NYG (with DAL thrown in there as well). Those three teams are far from defensive juggernauts. Let's see how he does against TEN, HOU, CLE, DEN (twice) etc. I imagine the passing yards will drop as well as the touchdowns and rushing numbers.
Kyle Wachtel: Smith's chances of finishing in the top-12 are much higher than his chances of performing as a top-12 quarterback for the remainder of the season, but I would still bet against it. As underrated (http://forensicfantasy.com/2013/03/fantasy-football-alex-smith-heads-to-kansas-city/) as he may have been heading into the season, I still would not treat him as anything more than a mid-range QB2 / spot-starter from here on out. His inability to stretch out defenses can be masked versus poor defenses, but exposed versus stronger units.
Mark Wimer: I think his chances of doing so are pretty good - the Chiefs' coaching staff has designed game plans that fit Smith's strengths and mask his deficiencies. The only worry here is if Jamaal Charles goes down as this entire offense is essentially running through Charles' capable hands.
Ryan Hester: I'd say those odds aren't very good. Smith has feasted against bad defenses so far this year, and the schedule in the future -- while not the most difficult in the league -- isn't nearly as friendly as the schedule to this point. Smith may squeak into the top 15, but he won't be top 12.
Daily Games
A lot of us are playing around with the daily games at sites like FanDuel or DraftStreet in addition to playing in more traditional fantasy leagues. How do the daily games measure up in terms of fun?
Kyle Wachtel: Both, traditional and daily fantasy, have their perks and are a lot of fun. One of the reasons traditional leagues became so popular is the ability to put yourself at the control of a "franchise." Draft day is an event in itself and the ability to make transactions throughout the season along with the social aspect won't ever be replicated in daily fantasy.
With that being said, I would recommend daily fantasy to anyone who enjoys fantasy football. The salary cap style contests add another dimension to the game and I've found it a lot of fun to tinker around and attempt to squeeze every last bit of value out of the available budget. You're not locked into any commitment and can play as little or as much as you want each week, which is also another perk.
Ryan Hester: I enjoy both formats, but I like the traditional formats better. I believe there's more skill involved in drafting a team and managing the same core people than starting anew each week in the daily games. Sites like FanDuel whose salaries don't fluctuate as aggressively based on matchup (like DraftStreet seems to), allow owners to use their knowledge to exploit the matchups that week, but it removes the skill necessary to exploit matchups with a limited group of players (yours and the waiver wire) and to navigate bye weeks.
Daily formats are great, though, if you've come across some bad luck or flat out drafted a bad team. If it's a redraft league, you could be out of contention by Week 8 and need the daily formats to get your fantasy fix. For that purpose, they're a wonderful addition to the fantasy community.
Will Grant: My previous experience with Daily Games was just using Matt Waldman's Fantasy Throwdown - and I really liked the format where you pick 3 NFL games and go head to head against an opponent, drafting a starting lineup based on the players available from those three games. There's a lot of strategy that goes into that type of format from choosing which NFL games to use (like Jacksonville vs. St. Louis or SF vs. Houston) on top of what players to pick (Cecil Shorts or Sam Bradford?) This feels much more like a 'traditional' league, but in a daily format where your team is only good for this week and next week it can be a completely different group.
However, this year I took the plunge and decided to give Fanduel.com a try and I have to say that I think it's pretty good.
Do you think the skill-to-luck ratio is different in the daily games than in traditional leagues?
Kyle Wachtel: I think the skill involved in both traditional and daily fantasy is very similar, but the ability to play multiple lineups each week in daily fantasy decreases the effect of uncontrollable variables. For example, injuries and unlucky breaks can ruin an entire year in traditional leagues. When those same injuries and unlucky breaks happen in daily fantasy, you can move forward the next week without being inhibited. It's basically the difference between small and large sample sizes.
Jeff Haseley: My involvement in daily games has been limited to only Fan Duel so far. I enjoy the concept of choosing new players each week, based on a salary cap. There is more strategy involved in this format and if you fail one week, you can recover and redeem yourself the following week. Ultimately, consistency and effective strategies are the driving force to winning. The fact that you can win cold hard cash is just another reason to be excited about the concept of daily games.
There are a lot of different formats to choose from in the daily games -- contests of different sizes, different payout structures, and so on. Which have you gravitated to so far?
Kyle Wachtel: When playing daily fantasy, I prefer the 50/50 contests and Double Ups. I also like to supplement those contests with H2H matches. In these style contests you're competing to be in the top-half of the field and they allow you to limit the risk in your lineup selections, which is a concept that is more similar to the traditional leagues. I also feel that I have an increased advantage in the leagues with larger roster sizes and lower salary caps. These types of leagues force users to dig deeper and benefit those who put in the extra research.
Jeff Haseley: I have participated in both the 55k cap and 60k cap at Fan Duel. My preference is the smaller the cap, the better. That way I can use my strategies to find the most points in the most efficient manner possible. To me, the cream rises to the top when the likelihood of success decreases. If the cap is higher, it's easier to accommodate high point-producing players in the cap, resulting in more teams with similar rosters, or at least similar players at certain positions. Lowering the cap means strategy is a greater determining factor for success. This is an advantage for me and others like me, who strategize and study metrics and trends when choosing a lineup.
Will Grant: I usually do the 'double Up' contests where you have to finish somewhere in the top 45% of the league to double the money that you bet on the contest. I've had pretty good success with this type of format, and after four weeks, I've made about 25% return on my investment.
FanDuel is interesting because you can really target any player that you want and can build your team around them. However, it does feel very different from a traditional league because it is as much about finding value in certain players vs. drafting the player that you think will perform the best. Most guys realize that Peyton Manning is going to be one of the top rated passers each week. But the cost of 'drafting' him for your team needs to be balanced against the players that you surround him with. The success of your team doesn't really depend on the performance of your stud players because most other players will have those guys as well. Your team success ultimately becomes about drafting the best 'non stud' players based on the money that you have left (if you only have $5,000 for a defense, which one of the $5,000 defenses will bring you the most points?).
The focus is very different. Traditional formats and Throwdown are about finding studs. Fanduel is about finding value.
Which takes more of your time to participate in each week, the daily games or the year-long traditional leagues?
Kyle Wachtel: I still spend more time and effort on traditional leagues. However, much of that research involved in the traditional leagues then translates very well to daily fantasy, which really limits the amount of extra work to a minimum.
One last advantage of daily fantasy is the prize money involved. The industry is growing at an incredible place and there are tournaments, such as FanDuel's Fantasy Football Championship, that will be awarding $3 Million in total prize money with a $1 Million first place prize. That type of life changing prize money is something that very few people would have a chance to imagine earning through the traditional leagues.
That will do it for this edition of the Footballguys Roundtable. Please join us again next week.