This week we discuss the following:
- Browns offense
- Who's number one?
- Colts RBs
- Kaepernick and Boldin
- Santonio Holmes
- Giants passing attack
- Week 4 matchups
Browns offense
Things sure looked different for the Browns on offense in week three compared to the two previous weeks. Trent Richardson is gone, Josh Gordon is back, and Brian Hoyer filled in capably for Brandon Weeden.
Is it clear after one start that Hoyer should be the Browns' starting quarterback this season, or do you need to see more from him before you're ready to say that he gives the Browns a better chance to win than Weeden does? (I suppose we can leave Jason Campbell out of this?)
Stephen Holloway: Hoyer rallied the Browns to the victory, but he also threw three interceptions. He should draw another start based on rallying the team to the 4th quarter come-back, and if he can remain productive and decrease the turnovers, he might keep the keys for this season, at least.
Jeff Pasquino: Hoyer took the reins on Sunday, knowing that a big game would likely lead him towards more opportunities, and that is exactly what he will get. But Cincinnati is a much tougher defense than Minnesota. He could struggle this week, of course, but the return of Josh Gordon certainly helped.
Chad Parsons: Brandon Weeden was a short-term Band-Aid in my opinion, and while I doubt Brian Hoyer is anything more than backup quality when the dust settles, Hoyer is the best chance they have to win games the rest of the season. Hoyer will make plenty of questionable throws, which Weeden did as well, but he has the boldness to fuel the talents of Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron.
Heath Cummings: It's not clear to me that Hoyer should be the starter, but Weeden doesn't have a lot of fans in the Cleveland front office so it may already be clear to them. Neither Weeden nor Hoyer is the answer, and that is one of the reasons the team dealt Richardson. I think we'll learn a lot more about Hoyer against the Bengals this week.
Will Grant: The proof is in the performance. Hoyer had nothing to lose this week, so he came in and led the Browns to a big upset victory when everyone had written them off after dumping Richardson earlier in the week. Weeden hasn't done much with the starting job and I see the Browns going with Hoyer for at least a couple more weeks.
Jason Wood: When the Browns hired Mike Lombardi you knew Weeden was on borrowed time as the Browns starter. Lombardi was openly critical of Weeden as an NFL prospect while working at NFL Network and no doubt made it clear to the Browns organization that if he were taking over, it would involve another passer longer-term. People got a bit fooled by preseason stats (another reminder to not bother to read preseason box scores!) but Weeden is a limited player. Now...is Brian Hoyer really any better? I don't know. I certainly wouldn't bet on it. I think we can safely say that the Browns' 2014 starter is not currently on the roster.
With Trent Richardson gone, Willis McGahee got the majority of the carries in week three (though he wasn't very effective). What's his fantasy value going forward?
Stephen Holloway: The current running back cadre has only 14 carries for 49 yards between them. Granted, McGahee had little practice time and should improve some, but expect the Browns' offensive plan to focus on the passing game. I would not be comfortable starting McGahee this week against the Bengals, but if can be even somewhat successful, he goes against the Bills in week five.
Jeff Pasquino: I would stay far away from the Browns running backs. McGahee may have a little left in the tank, but he was a street free agent for a reason.
Chad Parsons: McGahee is nothing but a flex-level fantasy option going forward, in the RB25-35 range on shear volume alone. Trent Richardson's value was suppressed in this offense and McGahee is on his last legs as an NFL running back. To get to the point of using McGahee as a flex play, I would have to be outside my top 45 or so receivers in a given week as another indicator of my confidence (or lack thereof) in McGahee going forward.
Heath Cummings: I'd rank McGahee as a desperation bye-week replacement. I still think this Browns team will struggle to move the ball which will mean limited touchdown opportunities and a very small chance that he puts up useful yardage numbers.
Will Grant: I don't see McGahee as more than just a flex or bye-week replacement. When Richardson was there, he had the potential to be a top five fantasy back. McGahee wasn't picked up after being cut by the Broncos, including by teams that had some bigger needs at running back than the Browns did before losing Richardson. McGahee will get 20 touches a game, but he won't see a lot of fantasy value beyond those opportunities.
Jason Wood: McGahee was on the street a week ago, so let's give him more than a day or two before judging his overall effectiveness. I think most fantasy owners looked at Richardson's struggles (from a yards per carry lens) and assumed McGahee would have zero running room. The Browns have so much uncertainty right now, but if what we saw in Week Three continues, the team will have a fair number of trips into the red zone. McGahee should be someone fantasy owners hope to get, say, 600-750 yards rushing and 8-10 touchdowns. That's a realistic upside outcome. Where does that rank him among other RBs? As a flex in standard leagues during the bye week stretch and a desperation play in PPR leagues if injuries and byes force your hand.
In his first game back, Josh Gordon appeared to be the Browns' best offensive weapon -- and not just because Trent Richardson is gone. Where do you rank him among fantasy WRs going forward?
Jeff Pasquino: Gordon is a fantasy WR3 with WR2 upside when he has favorable matchups and Hoyer under center. The NFL is a big-time passing league now, so a primary target who has 100+ yard potential most weeks is certainly startable most weeks.
Chad Parsons: Based on the expected volume, Gordon's knack for the big play, and the lack of a solid running game in Cleveland, Gordon is going to perform like a top-15 option quite a bit. He goes from question mark to automatic starter in one week's time and a player that can be the lynchpin to many fantasy titles this season.
Heath Cummings: I see Gordon as a boom-or-bust WR2 for fantasy purposes. There are going to be some weeks like week three that he seems unstoppable and others where he's barely noticed. It will be interesting to see how he does against a better secondary that's focused on stopping him.
Will Grant: I'd say that Gordon is more of a WR3 with some upside. Cleveland is going to struggle, and Gordon will certainly get his opportunity to rack up his fair share of receptions. But I don't think you should expect 19 targets a game. At some point Gordon is going to fall back to earth.
Jason Wood: Gordon was awesome out of the gates. It's never been a question of talent with Gordon, just focus and discipline. You have to love what you saw if you drafted him and stashed Gordon on your bench for two weeks. I would say he'll be comfortably in my low end WR2s for most of this season.
Stephen Holloway: Josh Gordon had 19 targets in his first outing and caught 10 passes for 146 yards and a score. He's going to keep getting targets, and I consider him an every-week starter.
Through three weeks, Jordan Cameron leads the team in targets, receptions, yards from scrimmage, and touchdowns. Where do you rank him among fantasy TEs going forward?
Stephen Holloway: The Browns' offensive strength is definitely with the receiving options. Jordan Cameron has already scored 4 TDs and is averaging 90 yards receiving per game. Like Gordon, Cameron is an every-week starter based on his opportunities and production to date.
Jeff Pasquino: Jordan Cameron is a TE1 for certain, and his three touchdown day did nothing to discourage that statement. Even with Gordon back, Cameron was very effective. He is essentially the second receiver for Cleveland, and the Browns love to use him over the middle and he is a big part of their weekly game plan. I would consider him in my top five tight ends going forward.
Chad Parsons: Cameron, like Gordon, is a must-start player each week. He will not have the volume or quarterback play of Jimmy Graham or the potential ceiling of Rob Gronkowski, but after those two names, it is all about Jordan Cameron.
Heath Cummings: Cameron is just outside my top five tight ends and he's a must start every week unless you drafted him as a TE2 and already have Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, or Jason Witten on your roster.
Will Grant: Cameron is definitely a starting tight end in any fantasy league, and could be a top tier tight end in PPR leagues. I look for him to be a top five fantasy TE by the end of the season.
Jason Wood: Not only has he been dominant, he's been so with two different quarterbacks. If I were redoing my rankings today Cameron would rank 4th behind Graham, Gronk and Witten.
Who's number one?
Who's the #1 WR in Minnesota? We thought it was going to be Greg Jennings, but Jerome Simpson has been targeted more often and has been more productive, and Cordarrelle Patterson may have more talent.
Jeff Pasquino: For now, I would go with Jennings. He struggled in Week 1, but he has been turning that around and is close to Simpson in targets over the last two weeks, and Jennings nearly pulled down a scoring pass against Cleveland in Week 3. Simpson has been living on borrowed time after a big Week 1 game (7-140 in Week 1, 5-78 in two games since) and Cordarrelle Patterson is pushing Simpson, not Jennings. Jennings has 8 catches for 127 yards on 12 targets the last two weeks.
Chad Parsons: By the end of the season it will be Cordarrelle Patterson. For now, Minnesota is slowly, but surely, incorporating Patterson into the offense, but it is obvious that Jennings and Simpson are not the answer here. Regardless, the leading receiver in Minnesota will be more fantasy frustration this season (thanks to Christian Ponder) than reliable starting option.
Will Grant: Because of the uncertainty regarding Christian Ponder, I would say that Greg Jennings is still the guy to focus on. Jennings is still seeing six or more targets a game and I think he's the number one receiver for the long haul. Jerome Simpson has never really made much of his opportunities and I don't believe that he's suddenly going to emerge as their top guy, especially when he had every chance last season and did not take advantage of it. Kyle Rudolph may actually finish with the best fantasy value outside of Adrian Peterson, but all bets could be off of Matt Cassel takes over at QB.
Heath Cummings: At this point I think it's too early to say it's Simpson. I have a really hard time thinking any receiver will be a consistent option in this offense, so while Jennings has had a slow start to the season I'm sure Simpson has a slump coming as well. I would avoid both of these guys but if I had to bet which one was going to finish with more targets and better production I'd bet Jennings.
Stephen Holloway: I continue to believe that at the end of the year, Jennings will be the top receiver for the Vikings, but will only have slightly better production than Simpson and Rudolph. Jennings currently ranks 40th in wide receivers for yardage and much lower at 60th in ppr scoring, due to no touchdowns. None of the three will be reliable options in 2013, because Christian Ponder has not shown enough improvement in year three. Through three games, he is completing 59% (ranks 22nd) of his passes for only 6.9 yards per attempt (ranks 21st). Despite throwing an average of 33 passes per game, he has only 2 passing TDs (and none to his wide receivers) against 5 interceptions.
Jason Wood: I'm still opting for Greg Jennings. He's an immensely talented player with a contract to boot. But being the nominal number one on this team may end up being far less valuable than any hoped, myself included. Ponder, thanks to some quirky running TDs, doesn't look as horrendous fantasy-wise as he's been in real NFL terms but you have to think that Matt Cassel (yes, MATT CASSEL) is worth a look at this juncture. Ultimately I think Jennings can be a low-end WR2 under OPTIMAL circumstances, which is to say Cassel playing the majority of the season. But that's a low probability outcome. More likely you hold onto him as your WR4/flex/bye option in spite of drafting him with much higher expectations.
Who's the #1 TE in Cincinnati? Most weekly rankings keep listing Eifert ahead of Gresham, but Gresham is leading in targets 19 to 12.
Jeff Pasquino: Eifert is the long term solution, but Gresham is a reliable guy who sees the field quite often. Cincinnati wants to run often, which puts Gresham on the field in most packages. Eifert is the "move" tight end, but the Bengals are not using 12 personnel (two tight ends) that often.
Chad Parsons: Gresham will have the edge this season as Eifert gets up to speed. Neither will be a huge fantasy factor as they are stealing targets from each other, but Gresham will be borderline top-12.
Will Grant: I have to think that it's going to be close to a 50-50 split by the end of the season. Gresham is the guy that Andy Dalton feels the most comfortable with, so he's always going to have a solid number of targets, but his 8.5 YPR isn't going to impress anyone except in PPR leagues. Eifert is still the guy who will post better yards per reception, even if he has fewer targets.
Heath Cummings: It's absolutely still Gresham and if you're looking strictly at year-to-date stats, he will be all year. That being said, everyone sees that Eifert has more potential and I think we're all just waiting on him to surpass Gresham. It could happen anytime between week eight and 2014, but it's more likely later than sooner.
Stephen Holloway: Gresham will be the leader this year, especially in PPR-scoring leagues but Eifert will continue to be involved and may come close to matching Gresham in non-PPR leagues. Granted it is a small sample size, but Eifert is averaging 3.3 ypc compared to 8.5 ypc for Gresham.
Jason Wood: There isn't a #1 TE in Cincinnati and I'm not sure why people thought otherwise. Eifert may someday be a star, but he's a rookie. Rookie TEs rarely if ever produce consistently. Meanwhile as my colleagues have noted, Gresham is a quality NFL player. He's an excellent blocker, he's strong, and fearless over the middle. While he never evolved into a receiving dynamo, he's still a quality player and worth having on the field. Ultimately I think they both produce for the Bengals and, in turn, fail to deliver fantasy value in 10- and 12-team leagues.
Who's the #1 WR in Kansas City? We thought it would be Dwayne Bowe, but Donnie Avery has frankly looked like the better receiver of the two so far this season.
Jeff Pasquino: Donnie Avery was one of my sleepers this year, and he really put on a show against the Eagles with multiple targets and plays designed to get him open over the middle. Alex Smith does not have a big arm, so that helps a guy willing to run shorter routes and that screams Avery (even though both he and Bowe can stretch the field).
Chad Parsons: Avery will come back to the pack (just at the time when owners start to pick him up off the waiver wire), but Bowe is in real trouble in this receiving group. Opposing defenses will load up on Bowe in coverage because there is not much else there in the controlled offense in Kansas City. I will take Bowe, the better player, to rebound the rest of the way, but be a fantasy disappointment from what were the preseason expectations.
Will Grant: Avery has struggled at times to stay healthy, and Dwayne Bowe is a much more 'prototypical' wide receiver. Avery had a good game this week, but only had two receptions in each of the first two games. Bowe had just the opposite, with four receptions in each of the first two games, but only one this week. I still think that Bowe is the guy to have from Kansas City.
Heath Cummings: Alex Smith isn't going to force the ball to anyone, and that's why we've seen the drop-off in production for Bowe the first three games of the year. Eventually teams are going to stop double teaming Bowe, and start paying more attention to Avery. When that happens Bowe will retake his place as the most productive receiver on the roster.
Stephen Holloway: To date, Jamaal Charles is leading the team in targets and receptions, and he is tied for the team lead in receiving TDs and second in receiving yardage. That doesn't really address the question, but it is one indicator of why Bowe has had limited success. The wide receiver targets have been fairly equally distributed with Bowe at 17, Avery at 16, and surprisingly McCluster with 13. Avery has made the most of the opportunities as he is second to Charles with 11 catches and leads the team with 190 yards receiving. Similarly to Minnesota, Bowe and Avery could have similar production on the season, but that will mean Bowe has clearly disappointed.
Jason Wood: I disagree with the notion that Alex Smith lacks the arm strength to throw downfield. He absolutely has the arm strength. It's become far too common to classify him as a 'system guy' and then imply it's due to physical limitations. Smith is a fantastic athlete with plus arm strength. His issue is mental. He's unwilling (not unable) to throw downfield and take chances. I had hoped Andy Reid would break him of that, but he hasn't. And with the team 3-0, it may not be necessary. I think from a pure talent-evaluation standpoint, Bowe is light years superior to anyone else in that locker room. But he's not getting the consistent looks. I still think Bowe will end the year as the top guy, but sadly not at the low-end WR1 level where he was being targeted.
Who's the #1 WR in Miami? We thought it would be Mike Wallace, but Brian Hartline has more receptions, yards, and touchdowns in two out of three games so far (and overall), and even Brandon Gibson has only one fewer target than Wallace.
Jeff Pasquino: Brian Hartline just has too much production, targets and confidence from his quarterback to consider anyone else. Hartline hit the ground running in Week 1 and Tannehill looks his way more often than not.
Chad Parsons: Brian Hartline is the receiver to own in Miami. Wallace has been fourth on the team in terms of targets in two-of-three games this season and is already a hit-or-miss player. Hartline continues to get open and does not have the safety trolling over the top most snaps like Wallace.
Will Grant: I always expected Hartline to be the guy who finished with more receptions. He is that 'go over the middle' kind of guy that is going to help Miami move the chains from week to week. With Mike Wallace taking over as the big play WR, he'll finish with better fantasy stats, but in a PPR league it will probably be close. Give Wallace a few more weeks to get up to speed with the new offense and he'll be fine.
Heath Cummings: It depends on what type of league you're in. In a PPR league it looks like Hartline is the #1, but in standard scoring leagues I expect Wallace to outperform Hartline by a considerable amount. Wallace is going to end up with more yards and more touchdowns, but Tannehill has a better relationship with Hartline, so it isn't surprising to see him with more receptions.
Stephen Holloway: Hartline has continued to lead the Dolphins, just like he did a year ago. The most telling statistic is that Wallace currently ranks 4th on the team in receptions, trailing Hartline (18), Gibson (14), and Clay (14). Hartline remains the favorite target of quarterback Ryan Tannehill and I expect him to be the team leader in receptions and yards for the 2013 season.
Jason Wood: I avoided Wallace like the plague because of a combination of training camp reports (suggesting he and Tannehill had no chemistry) and a belief that pure vertical receivers like Wallace do not translate well as free agents. Thus far my apprehension has proven sound, but the season remains young. Hartline has to be considered the top option in PPR leagues. In standard leagues I probably still lean toward Wallace as I think he'll find the end zone a handful of times more than Hartline.
Who's the #1 WR in St. Louis (if there is such a thing)? A lot of people liked Chris Givens before the season started, but Tavon Austin and Austin Pettis both have more targets, receptions, and touchdowns than Givens.
Jeff Pasquino: The number one guy for Sam Bradford is whoever gets open. That could be Austin, Pettis, or (quite often) Jared Cook.
Chad Parsons: In PPR leagues, Tavon Austin will get force-fed the ball regardless of lack of separation to this point. In non-PPR, it will be close between Austin and Chris Givens.
Will Grant: With 26 targets in just three games, I'd have to say that Tavon Austin is the guy to have in this offense. His yards per reception are pretty low, but ultimately it's the guy that has the most opportunities that will finish with the best stats.
Heath Cummings: I think this is going to be a carousel of fantasy production throughout the season. For my money I still like Givens to finish with the best numbers, but week-to-week we're going to struggle to predict which option Bradford will lean on.
Stephen Holloway: The Rams will be throwing the ball a lot in 2013, but they appear to be utilizing receiver-by-committee. After three games, they have five players with double-digit receptions and two more players that have 9 catches already. The leader in catches is Tavon Austin, but despite expectations that he would be explosive, he is averaging only 6.6 yards per reception. These guys look like good options in best ball leagues, but getting the right one in your line-up at the right time may be an impossible task. Givens is averaging 20.7 yards per reception, excelling on deep throws, but has caught only 47.4% of his targets.
Jason Wood: I thought it would be Jared Cook. Not sure what to think now. Bradford is playing good football and spreading the ball around. It's unusual for someone to be on track for the kind of passing season Bradford is delivering and not have a go-to receiver, but so far it's anyone's guess. I like Givens in best ball formats because he can give you the 50-yard go-route touchdown, but in most leagues I would avoid starting any of them for now.
Who's the #1 RB in Green Bay? It looked like it would be Eddie Lacy heading into the season, but his concussion has given James Starks and Johnathan Franklin a chance to play, and in the eyes of some, the latter RBs have looked more impressive than Lacy. All three are banged up at the moment, but when they return from their week-four bye, who's the long-term answer here for fantasy owners this season?
Jeff Pasquino: Eddie Lacy, provided he is healthy. With Lacy out temporarily, it looked like it was going to be Starks, but he can't stay healthy. As long as Franklin shakes the fumble off that cost his team the Bengals game, he should elevate quickly to the second role, possibly even taking time away from Lacy. Both of these guys were drafted this year (Lacy in the second round, Franklin in the fourth) so they are considered valuable and the future for Green Bay's ground game.
Chad Parsons: Eddie Lacy, when healthy, will get the benefit of doubt. Franklin and Starks will get situational snaps in a three-headed committee, but Lacy has the most value going forward if they are all healthy.
Will Grant: Lacy was the guy who distanced himself by the end of training camp and I have to believe that he's the guy who will take over the top spot when he returns. Franklin was a disaster at the end of training camp, and one solid week isn't enough to push him over the top. However, it was an impressive week against a tough defense. If Lacy continues to miss time due to his concussion and Franklin continues to perform, it could be more of a 50-50 split when he comes back.
Heath Cummings: If he can stay healthy it's Lacy...but that's a huge if. Franklin made a huge statement with his performance in week three but an even bigger statement with his fumble in the 4th quarter.
Stephen Holloway: I was disappointed by the lack of opportunities that Johnathan Franklin had in the pre-season, but his solid production in his only playing time could shift Green Bay toward an RBBC situation. Over the first three games. the Packers have thrown an average of 41 passes and ran the ball only 22 times per game. It is obvious that the team's leader is Aaron Rodgers and their strength is the depth of receivers. Expect a continued focus on the passing game and insufficient opportunities for a committee approach to produce consistent running back production.
Jason Wood: I said it all preseason (when most lacked conviction) and I'll keep saying it -- it's Lacy. Barring injury, Lacy is the best RB on the roster and it's not close. What fantasy owners need to look at is how much better Green Bay's offensive line is playing as a run-blocking unit. Starks is a joke -- we know that -- yet produced a big game when given the chance. Franklin couldn't make the active roster out of camp yet produced when given the chance. However in Franklin's case he still has blitz pickup issues and fumbled. Yikes. As long as Lacy can stay on the field, he'll be an absolute beast.
Colts RBs
How will the workload be split between Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw going forward?
Dave Larkin: The Colts' offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton did it at Stanford, and he is recreating it in Indianapolis; he wants to make this team into a run-first, play-action offense that wears down opponents. Ahmad Bradshaw ran with good discipline, patience and power at times against San Francisco, but Trent Richardson is a prized acquisition for the Colts, so they will want to give him as many carries as possible. Not to mention Richardson is the better talent. Bradshaw will continue to play a role, however, especially on obvious passing downs. With the Colts defense ostensibly improving, we may see Luck have to pass less and if the game scripts go the way of Indianapolis, expect Richardson to get plenty of clock-chewing carries late in games. As for the workload split, I'd handicap it at 60-40 in Bradshaw's favor for the next two to three weeks, with Richardson switching that ratio in his favor once he gets up to speed with the offense and its nuances.
Stephen Holloway: I agree with Dave that the Colts are looking to run the ball more efficiently so that they can set up Andrew Luck for success on play-action. How they develop that run production seems to be an on-going preference in the NFL. Have two solid running backs that can both do everything in the game plan. The best situation for the Colts is to keep both Bradshaw and Richardson available and productive. This has all the markings of a time-share that generally upsets fantasy owners, but works out well for the Colts. Of course, if either of the two miss time, the other becomes more viable. With Bradshaw's feet history, the long-term would definitely favor Richardson. But for now, it should be close to a 50-50 split.
Jeff Pasquino: I think that they will continue to split time, about 60-40 towards Richardson, once Richardson is fully acclimated. Bradshaw is used to time sharing in backfields, splitting it with Brandon Jacobs with the Giants for years. Richardson will be kept fresher (as will Bradshaw) if they split touches and workload, leaving both healthier for the playoffs. I could see 15-20 touches a week for both of them if things go to plan for Indianapolis most weeks.
Chad Parsons: The Colts have the luxury of working Richardson in slowly as Bradshaw, when healthy like he is now, is a more-than-capable back in all facets of the game. They would love to run the ball 30+ times a week (a stark contrast from a year ago), so they will need two backs for that type of volume. I think Richardson gets most of the goal line work, Bradshaw gets more third down snaps, and overall Richardson has 60% of the pie, like Jeff mentioned.
Will Grant: I agree with most that it will probably be a 60-40 split with Richardson probably winning the majority by the end of the season. But if last week is any indication, Bradshaw is not going to go quietly. The presence of Richardson has motivated Bradshaw to really play to his top level. The key though is how long he's going to be stay healthy. He's missed time the previous two season and his health was a big concern of why the Giants didn't re-sign him. If he goes down, Richardson could be the primary back for the rest of the season.
Heath Cummings: I'd say it's probably 2-1 Richardson once he has a full grasp of the offense. Bradshaw looked great in week three but the Colts know that he's best when used in small doses, especially with those feet. By the end of the year I wouldn't be surprised if it was more like a 3-1 advantage for Richardson.
Jason Wood: Bradshaw is oft-injured but he's also played through his injuries in most situations. It's clear he was fired up by the Richardson acquisition and looked like the much better back in Week Three. Now, we all know it's unfair to judge Richardson in his first week on a new team, but Bradshaw made a statement nonetheless. I think we should assume a 60-40 split and driven by in-game scenarios. Somewhat like the "Thunder and Lightning" approach we've seen in places like Tampa Bay (Dunn-Alstott) or New York (Barber-Jacobs). Richardson should be the power back and get most of the short yardage and goal-line looks, whereas Bradshaw will see more 3rd down work as both a receiver and because he's a fantastic pass blocker. I would slot Richardson in as a low end fantasy RB1 in standard formats and Bradshaw as a solid RB3/flex.
Kaepernick and Boldin
Colin Kaepernick and Anquan Boldin had a big opening week and then nothing. Any worries?
Dave Larkin: The opening week bonanza of points came off an above-average number of targets (17), but Boldin remains the Niners' most targeted receiver with 29 through three weeks. Kaepernick will continue to rely on Boldin, who doesn't necessarily have to be open to be thrown to. With Vernon Davis hobbled and the Niners remaining a 'ground and pound' offensive team by philosophy (especially after Gore's complaints of only 11 rushing attempts against the Colts), Boldin will see the field plenty and I am confident the numbers will come after this blip.
Stephen Holloway: Since the huge week one by Boldin, he has garnered only 12 targets resulting in 6 receptions for 74 yards in two games. The second game was against the Seattle defense, who will probably limit most wide receivers. I expect that there will be many more games similar to week 3 where Boldin caught 5 passes on 8 targets for 67 yards. The 49ers still want to run the ball and that is their strong suit. Boldin should continue to produce as a WR2, at least until (and if) Crabtree returns.
Jeff Pasquino: They need a healthy second (and third) option on offense. Without a healthy Vernon Davis, the 49ers have a liability in the passing game, as defenses can just double Boldin, single cover anyone else who goes out for a route and then play Kaepernick, Gore and the run game first.
Chad Parsons: I am concerned because Kaepernick had absolutely no where to go with the football on most passing downs against the Colts in Week three. Not Seattle or anything...the Colts. Boldin has had a few big games in the past couple seasons, but in general he has been unimpressive. Vernon Davis is key to the offense as he is the only real deep threat. Long-term I am not concerned about Kaepernick with Michael Crabtree getting back in the mix, but they plainly lack weapons in the short-term and a struggling running game is just another demerit working against them.
Will Grant: The Niners are struggling early this season, but they have also played some difficult opponents that will probably be in the playoffs. This week they get St. Louis and I think that you're going to see the stats that you were hoping for this season.
Heath Cummings: I was more worried after week one because I was lower than most on both Kaepernick and Boldin this year. As usual, the answer is somewhere in the middle. They won't often be as bad as they've been the last two weeks but they won't be as good as they were in week one either. I expect Kaepernick to finish somewhere between QB10-QB15 in 2013. Boldin will feast on poor secondaries once Vernon Davis is 100% but he can absolutely be locked down by an upper-echelon corner.
Jason Wood: You don't want to overreact, but I'm a believer in looking at things after three games. Triangulation of data points gives me far more confidence than one data point. The question becomes, what do you do about Kaepernick from here? Part of the puzzle will be solved by Vernon Davis' health. With Davis out, this does become a one-dimensional passing attack and is far too easy to defend. If Davis is back on the field soon, I still view Kaepernick as a QB1, but would happily trade him to someone if I could get back the likes of Luck, Romo, Vick, Stafford, or Ryan plus another chip.
Santonio Holmes
What do you make of Santonio Holmes' prospects from here on out?
Stephen Holloway: Santonio Holmes has a history of solid NFL production, but his last good year was two seasons ago. From 2007 until 2011, he averaged 58 catches and 882 yards per year and scored 32 TDs. He is a capable receiver and the Jets have shown spark on offense behind Geno Smith. It would not be surprising for Holmes to be able to finish as a top-40 WR on the season.
Jeff Pasquino: Geno Smith is getting better, and the ground game improved behind Bilal Powell. Defenses will be kept a little more honest with two wideouts who can run the full route tree, so Holmes and Stephen Hill will pressure defenses. Once Jeremy Kerley gets healthy and returns to the slot as their third option, the passing game will get another boost. Holmes may see fewer targets then, but more bigger play chances.
Chad Parsons: My interest is Stephen Hill in the Jets passing game, but Holmes can absolutely be a viable WR3 for the rest of the season. Geno Smith has been better than expected, but I think the Jets defense will keep them on schedule running the ball quite a bit most weeks. Temper expectations as Week three may be the high point in a lot of respects, but Holmes will be a fantasy factor going forward instead of the afterthought he was a month ago.
Will Grant: I want to believe that Holmes isn't worth having because the Jets' offense was such a mess after the pre-season. It's still a giant question mark, but Holmes is slowly emerging as the go-to guy on offense. Their offense is going to have to throw and throw and throw this year, and Holmes will probably finish with some decent stats. He may even finish in the top 25.
Heath Cummings: I don't trust Holmes at all. I see him as a bye week replacement or a what-the-heck flex.
Jason Wood: I'm starting to buy into the renaissance. Geno Smith looks decisive in the pocket and is letting Holmes go after balls in traffic. Holmes was deeply discounted this offseason because of his injuries and seeming lack of interest in pushing himself back onto the field. That's no longer an issue -- Holmes is motivated. If you can target him in trade talks as a throw in, I would do so because I think he'll be a top 30 receiver most weeks.
Giants passing attack
What's wrong with the Giants' passing game? Will it be fixed anytime soon?
Dave Larkin: The problem with the Giants' passing game is simple: protection, or more accurately, the lack of it. Poor play from offensive linemen like Chris Snee, left tackle Will Beatty and rookie Justin Pugh have led to an excess of 40 hurries and 10 hits on Eli Manning. The Carolina game could be the beginning of a trend for the Giants; they sufficiently covered up the cracks thus far, but if the defense continues to perform below-par, the Giants offense will have to pick up the slack. Can they do that? Yes, we've seen them do it before, Manning posting 400-plus yard games to salvage things. I'm remaining pessimistic on the Giants' passing attack until I see signs of life from this line.
Stephen Holloway: The domination of the Giants' offense by Carolina was surprising and there are definitely severe issues with the Giants' offensive line. Eli Manning had an awful outing, but I expect that the passing game will be productive in most weeks, even with the offensive line struggles. The team currently ranks dead last in the NFL in rushing with 44.3 yards per game and a measly 2.7 yards per rush. The lack of a run game combined with giving up 11 sacks has not allowed them to sustain drives. Another factor is the poor defensive play. The Giants currently rank 24th in the NFL, giving up 382.3 yards per game. They are going to have to continue to pass early and often to try to keep pace with their opponents. Besides, even after the week 3 debacle, Manning is completing 58.8% of his passes and has averaged 8.2 yards per attempt, averaging 310 yards passing per game.
Jeff Pasquino: They can't protect Eli Manning, pure and simple -- and defenses are showing no respect for the run game. When you can drop seven at a time, all the time, and rush 3-4 guys who can get to Manning without having to blitz, it is a huge problem for an offense to solve. Unfortunately for Eli, that is what he is facing these days.
Chad Parsons: I will echo what Jeff said. It was difficult to watch Manning try to hang in the pocket against Carolina this past week. He was under constant stress. Having quality receivers is only a benefit when they have single coverage and the quarterback has time and space to deliver passes. The lack of a run game hurts as well. Things will improve when David Wilson gets on track in the run game or the offensive line can anchor the line of scrimmage in some capacity or the receivers win early in their respective routes. Something needs to change to get this ship headed in the right direction.
Will Grant: The Giants have too much talent at WR to struggle in the passing game for very long. The blame really has to fall on Eli Manning at this point. Eight interceptions in the first three games certainly don't do much to change that belief. He's also been sacked 11 times in that span as well. If the offensive line continues to struggle and the running game can't get un-tracked, Eli is going to have to do more to help them win. At some point they will figure it out, and I expect that they will be back on track again. This week in Kansas City may be pretty tough though.
Heath Cummings: The Giants problems in the passing game center around their offensive line and Eli Manning's decision making. They'll be better than they were last week for sure but I wouldn't expect the Giants' offense to reach the heights it did in 2012.
Jason Wood: The passing game is a byproduct of the offensive line and running game, or lack thereof. Coughlin, Gilbride and staff are excellent technical coaches but you can't get blood from a stone. This may be a year when the line depth just isn't strong enough to let the offensive engine flow. Let me be clear, they won't be THIS bad all season. Manning will have his moments and I'm not at all concerned about Cruz or Nicks. The Giants defense is in shambles (and can't be fixed this year) so the Giants will have to throw more than Coughlin would otherwise prefer.
Week 4 matchups
We've got a lot of good football to look forward to this weekend. We can't go through every matchup, but let's pick a few and discuss their fantasy implications. How do things look this week for the Giants' passing game against the Chiefs? Dave?
Dave Larkin: It's hard to ignore the elephant in the room that is the Giants' porous offensive line. Carolina's front four exposed them repeatedly and, with solid coverage in the secondary based mostly on two-man concepts, Eli Manning appeared out of sorts and drained, both physically and mentally. Things don't get any easier for the 0-3 Giants against the formidable Chiefs defensive front this week.
Kansas City's renaissance has been directly tied in to their defensive front seven's solid play, with all-world talent Justin Houston and second-year nose tackle Dontari Poe earning most of the plaudits. Tyson Jackson and Derrick Johnson have also contributed to what has become a salty defensive team with a decent to above-average pass rush.
While I'm not expecting seven sacks from the Chiefs like the Panthers inflicted on New York in Week 3, the signs are ominous on the road for the Giants passing attack to get back on track. Protection will be the mantra for Tom Coughlin in practice this week, but this doesn't look like a bounce back match-up to me. As far as fantasy implications, I would be hesitant to drop Eli Manning and the Giants' receivers too far down in your estimation, but the cautionary tale of Week 3 is there, so don't be surprised if the line is once again humbled in Kansas City.
The Ealges-Broncos game could be a fantasy bonanza. Stephen, how do you see this one playing out?
Stephen Holloway: I am looking forward to the Philadelphia Eagles visiting Denver to take on the Broncos. The Eagles offense has been good, but the Broncos offense has been better. Peyton Manning has been hitting on all cylinders averaging 381 yards passing, 9.4 yards per attempt and 4 TDs per game. The Broncos ability to sustain drives has them with almost ten more offensive plays per game than the Eagles. I expect the Broncos to easily win the game, but the Broncos have had issues preventing teams from passing as they rank 30th in the NFL against the pass. I am hopeful that the Eagles can be productive and match scores so that we can see Manning mount a continuing all-out aerial assault on the Eagles, who rank 29th against the pass, giving up 323 passing yards per game.
The Dolphins-Saints game on Monday night could also feature healthy offensive production. Jeff, can you give us the rundown on that one?
Jeff Pasquino: I actually can't wait to see the Miami-New Orleans game. Two 3-0 teams square off on Monday Night Football, and while many might think that Miami's luck will be running out when they visit New Orleans, I think that they actually have a pretty good shot to put up a major fight against the Saints. The Saints are definitely facing their toughest team since Atlanta in Week 1, while the Dolphins have fought tough battles against Indianapolis and Atlanta over the past two weeks. New Orleans is a very difficult place to play on the road, especially when Drew Brees is hot, but I think this comes down to three keys for Miami. Can they generate turnovers, can they run the ball, and can they cover Jimmy Graham? Miami’s defense has been playing very well, and they forced interceptions last week by Matt Ryan. Tony Gonzalez is not Graham, but Miami also kept him in check. The Saints rushed Carson Palmer well last week, but New Orleans has given up a lot of big runs to Steven Jackson (11-77 rushing) and Doug Martin (29-144) the first two weeks, opening up the possibility for Lamar Miller to have his best game of the year. Ryan Tannehill is getting better each game as well, so do not overlook that either. Brian Hartline could have a field day in a game that could have 1,000 yards of offense.
The Patriots-Falcons game should be a good one as well. Chad, what are you looking for in that game?
Chad Parsons: I am looking forward to seeing New England getting their first real test of the season. They have struggled to open the year, but they happened to get rookie quarterbacks in EJ Manuel and Geno Smith and a recently benched Josh Freeman to almost function as a glorified preseason. Now, they face the Falcons, in Atlanta, with an offense with more questions than answers. The rookie receivers improved in Week three, but have a long way to go, Danny Amendola is still out, and Rob Gronkowski has yet to play up until this point. Not to mention Stevan Ridley has yet to string together successful carries and Shane Vereen is also out of the lineup. The Falcons are coming off a last-minute loss to Miami and will be a tough test in the dome. Game of the week.
Will, what individual players do you like to put up good numbers in the Bears-Lions game?
Will Grant: The Bears are off to a fast start with a new coach and a new offensive focus. Their offensive line survived a big test last week against the Steelers, but there are still some question marks and they still have two rookies on the right side. On the other side of the ball, Calvin Johnson vs. Charles Tillman is always a tough match. Tillman has had some success in containing Megatron in the past, but he's banged up and the Lions will be playing at home. The Lions are banged up, but they are still the favorite to come out on top. Both teams want to stay ahead of the Packers, so both will be looking for the big win. I think Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford have a big week, but I think the Bears challenge with good games from Jay Cutler and Matt Forte as well. It will ultimately come down to if Chicago's defense can continue to make big plays and force turnovers.
The Buccaneers will be going with a rookie quarterback against the Cardinals. Heath, what can we expect when Tampa Bay has the ball?
Heath Cummings: This one may sound like a dud, but there's a lot to watch for in this game. The Cardinals have lost a lot on defense early in the year, suffering multiple injuries at linebacker. Doug Martin has been good this year, but should be due for a monster outing against this banged up defense. Rookie Mike Glennon will get his first start against a secondary that's given up almost 300 yards passing a game. It's a perfect opportunity for a rookie quarterback and we should find out almost immediately if he has any fantasy value this year. Assuming Vincent Jackson plays, look for Mike Williams to have a big game with Patrick Peterson locked in on Jackson.
Jason, it seems like we're at a crossroads with a lot of running backs at this point in the season. There are a number of guys who haven't quite offered the production we were expecting, but they could turn things around very soon. Either way, we should get some clarity on a number of them starting this week. Would you agree with that?
Jason Wood: Yes, I think this week could go a long way in providing some clarity, particularly with the group of RB2s that so many fantasy owners were happily targeting if they opted to take a WR in one of the first two rounds. Lamar Miller is in a time share and heads to New Orleans. If he delivers a breakout game you can suddenly breathe a sigh of relief and feel good about the draft choice. But if it's another struggle? You're likely looking at terrible RB2 options from here on out barring a trade. Steven Ridley has become persona non grata and should get on track versus the Falcons. If he doesn't? You'll likely send him to the bench for many weeks to come. Chris Johnson has gotten the touches and the rushing yards, but hasn't scored and isn't involved in the passing game. If he finds the end zone, I would pound the table to make trade offers for him, but if he retrenches even further this week against a good Jets defensive front? Uh oh. LeVeon Bell will get back on the field, and the Steelers sorely need him. I have Bell on a ton of rosters and will come away this week either feeling like I just lucked into an RB2 lottery pick or that he'll be waiver drop fodder. It's that binary in my mind. What about poor David Wilson? How about the Trent Richardson owners? If Richardson isn't a monster this week versus Jacksonville, you really need to re-think whether this is a franchise, top-5 potential fantasy player. What about Detroit? Bell has been terrific and Bush has, too, and now both are ready to suit up in Week Four. Will they eat each other's value? Can C.J. Spiller put up a big week against a susceptible Ravens defense? If not, you're looking at this year's first-round bust. Will Frank Gore get the carries he seemingly deserves? He's another RB whose owners will feel great about if he has a big week, but if he struggles again you're going to have a pit in your stomach and worry that Gore isn't the high end RB2 you hoped for.
That will do it for this edition of the Footballguys Roundtable. Please join us again next week.