This week we discuss the following:
As a league-wide trend, teams have been putting up very impressive passing stats this season, with a corresponding dip in running stats.
How should that affect people's fantasy football strategy?
ANDY HICKS: There's no set answer to this. It will depend each year on the overall fantasy football landscape. Even as the trend toward more passing and less running was evident heading into the 2013 season, for example, people still took running backs early and often in their drafts. That's because there were so many quarterbacks that stayed healthy and productive last season that people felt comfortable waiting at tight end this year and ending up with plenty of good options in the middle rounds. Conversely, after Jimmy Graham, the tight end position was fraught with question marks that people didn't want to spend an early pick on. That pushed running backs to the top of the draft along with the elite wide receivers, but things could play out differently next year. If this season has four quarterbacks and three tight ends really separating themselves from the pack this year, we could see numerous quarterbacks and tight ends go in the first two rounds of next year's drafts, the way they did in 2012.
The trick, of course, is to predict what will happen this year, not what happened last. The early season dominance of the passing attacks is an anomaly that will be corrected as the season wears on. Right now over 59% of offensive snaps are passing plays, up from 56% last year, which was up from 55% the year before and up from 53% in 2006. This season will correct as we head towards winter: teams with playoff ambitions will get more conservative and we'll eventually end up around the 56% area again.
MATT WALDMAN: I'm still wondering if we're reacting to two weeks of football and not considering this balancing out. Remember, limited contact in training camp really hurts the rapport that offensive linemen and running backs developed in the past. I think this is why ground stats are bad right now. This will improve as the year progresses. Therefore, I think I'd prefer to take the economist's approach and look at fantasy strategy as it pertains to future drafts when we have a whole year to examine.
So the advice to go RB-RB in the first two rounds of your draft is not obsolete?
ANDY HICKS: Not at all. Even though the passing has been high, it will correct and healthy running backs will be dominant fantasy players. Even at this early stage of the season the difference between LeSean McCoy and the 24th ranked running backs such as Daryl Richardson is enormous (24 fantasy points). Every year we have some backs who start slow and gather steam as the season unfolds. Others fall by the wayside and some come out of nowhere.
As long as the elite running backs heavily outscore the bottom end of the RB2 pool, people will always be justified in going RB/RB. If we ever have a day were there are 40 running backs scoring roughly the same, then maybe it becomes obsolete, but the more pass happy the league gets, the more valuable the true 3 down backs become.
KYLE WACHTEL: As long as the standard league only starts 12 quarterbacks, the increased number of viable quarterbacks will continue to diminish the value of the position. Going RB-RB in the first two rounds of your draft to secure yourself strong players at a position with poor depth would become increasingly ideal. You'd be able to find suitable production at QB later in the draft or even by streaming based on match ups.
Should owners be trying to trade their RB2s or RB3s in order to upgrade their WRs and TEs to use in their flex spots?
ANDY HICKS: It really depends on league scoring, depth of squads etc. It also depends on the running back involved. I was never on the Steven Jackson bandwagon, but I would get rid of him if I had him while he still has value. Doug Martin and Arian Foster will return to the elite very soon. Chris Johnson will turn it around as demonstrated by his start to 2012. Similarly I expect Frank Gore, Trent Richardson and Stevan Ridley to improve as they ease out of their tough early schedules. Ray Rice is another player who may be a problem, especially for the owner who didn't take Bernard Pierce.
MATT WALDMAN: We all know the answer is to examine this case by case. However, in general I think it's easier to win with a weak RB2 or RB3 than have a weak WR corps in PPR leagues. Non-PPR? I think I'd take advantage of those trying to unload running backs right now. It will be easier to find solid low-end starter/flex production with WRs on the waiver wire as the year progresses.
KYLE WACHTEL: I still prefer to use running backs as a flex, but the shallow depth at the position often leaves receivers as the better option, especially in PPR formats. If a receiver, or even a tight end, is your best flex play, then go for it. However, having a plug-in RB3 on your bench is still a tremendous advantage to have for BYE weeks and injuries.
Do top-tier QBs become even more valuable because of the potential for huge games (like Manning's seven-touchdown performance in week one)? Or less valuable because the QB position has become so deep that nearly any QB can have a big game in a given week?
ANDY HICKS: I don’t think we'll see another seven-passing-touchdown game again this season. But it really comes down to whether it's the same quarterbacks consistently having big weeks, or whether the top of the weekly high-scoring lists have a lot of rotation. If the current top three of Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Michael Vick continue on their current form then they become extremely valuable. If they come back to the pack then there won't be much difference between the top 20 at all, which makes it hard to get good value for quarterbacks in a trade.
MATT WALDMAN: I think the QB position has become less valuable and I think it would be nice to see leagues begin to award bonuses at 400 yards passing rather than 300, and stiffer penalties for interceptions. To me this is a better answer than 2-QB leagues, but I just find that 2-QB offend my aesthetic sense of fantasy football lineups. Doesn't mean I won't play in them, but I'd rather see leagues adjust the scoring for quarterbacks than add more of them to a lineup.
KYLE WACHTEL: While it's great to have an elite-QB, you would have to sacrifice the talent at your other positions, such as running back, which are much harder to replace. Playing two or more QBs based on match ups may be less comfortable than using Aaron Rodgers week-to-week, but ultimately, you should still be able to get top-end production from the position.
A number of running backs drafted to be RB1s have a lot of their owners concerned. Let's go through them, and I'll have you tell me concerns are legitimate, and which are overreactions?
Arian Foster - Losing too many carries to Ben Tate.
KYLE WACHTEL: Foster's concerns are legitimate. The amount of wear and tear on his body has been well-documented and Tate is simply the superior runner.
ANDY HICKS: Once news was public about Foster carrying an injury heading into the season and Ben Tate was back to full health, it made me drop Foster in my rankings. Foster had an abnormally large workload in 2012 and the Texans are obviously easing him back into his duties. I wouldn't panic yet if I were a Foster owner as he is still getting over 20 touches a game and got a goal line touchdown. The Texans have relied more on the passing game as well with a genuine threat opposite Andre Johnson in DeAndre Hopkins. Foster is unlikely to reach the upper tier of RB1's, but should comfortably slot towards the 6th to 10th ranked area.
MATT WALDMAN: I think it's a slight overreaction. Foster actually looked better than Tate last week on a carry-by-carry study of the two backs. Sure Tate broke some big plays, but Foster was more patient and fluid. He did better in situations that required gaining yards after contact and I think he looked a little healthier than he did Week 1.
ADAM HARSTAD: For all the concern about Arian Foster, he played 60 snaps against the Titans, while Tate played just 22. When Houston was in do-or-die situations, it was Foster who was on the field. I think Houston will keep mixing in Ben Tate to keep Foster fresh, but I'm not concerned about whether Arian can still get enough of a workload to justify his RB1 status.
ANDREW GARDA: I'm with Adam on Arian Foster and would add that he is very determined to get his carries. What is interesting to me is the fact that last year the team went more run-heavy to start the season and this year they went to the air. That may be something to do with wear and tear on Foster but it's more likely about the new weapons. I do expect, like last year, things to even out and Foster to get his.
Ray Rice - Losing too many carries to Bernard Pierce.
KYLE WACHTEL: Pierce locked down a role last season and a drop in carries for Rice was expected. Rice hovered at RB1 level because of his expected increase in usage as a receiver. The hip flexor strain suffered by Rice is more concerning than Pierce's usage.
ANDY HICKS: I still like Rice going forward, but it depends on his health. If he takes a week off and comes back fully healthy, then great, he should continue to be a RB1. If he continues to play through pain and appear on the injury report every week then I would be more concerned. The Ravens haven't been shy about giving Bernard Pierce more work, but Rice is still the better back, especially as a receiver.
MATT WALDMAN: This is a true concern. I thought the hype on Pierce was overblown, but after watching both games I think Pierce looks excellent after contact and he's showing the burst to get outside. I can see how Rice will lose looks on a consistent basis with Pierce around.
ADAM HARSTAD: Ray Rice is in much the same situation as Foster. He's losing run snaps, but when it's crunch time, he's the guy Baltimore is going to turn to. In addition, he's been running a lot more pass routes. I don't think he's going to average 20 carries a game again this year, but I don't see any reason why he couldn't average 15 carries and 4 receptions. When he's healthy, he's another solid RB1.
ANDREW GARDA: Not only is Ray Rice losing carries to Pierce, but he's banged up. Until he gets healthy it's a concern, but when healthy he can still put up points. The whole Ravens team is out of sorts and once Rice is 100%, I think they ride him while they straighten it out.
Trent Richardson - It's not that Norv Turner was killing his value; maybe he's just not a great running back.
KYLE WACHTEL: After just two games, it became clear that Norv Turner's offense was not going to benefit Richardson. The Browns faced a tough schedule in the first two weeks, and being without Josh Gordon hasn't helped. Things are about to get better for Trent Richardson, though. The Colts' offense has a lot more fire-power than the Browns' offense, and if nothing else, Richardson should get significantly more goal-line opportunities in Indianapolis.
ANDY HICKS: I had Trent Richardson lower in my rankings than any other staffer by a good margin and he is proving why. I really hate a low yards per carry in a feature back and his 3.56 yards a carry from last season was a big red flag. Without touchdowns he is nothing special and until proven otherwise I will stay away from him. Relying on touchdowns in a new offense is never a good strategy, and the trade to Indianapolis is further evidence that the Browns' new coaching staff aren't in love with his talent. (Either that or he has done something behind the scenes that they really despise.) Maybe it is good business sense for the Browns to have two first rounders next year, but giving up on the third overall pick so quickly is amazing. He should do better in Indianapolis with a decent QB, but the Browns had a very good line that Richardson couldn't take advantage of. If I owned Richardson, I'd probably snap up any good offer as there is likely to be optimism in his move to the Colts, at least for a few weeks.
MATT WALDMAN: Norv Turner was killing his value, but not anymore! I am highly curious to see how Richardson plays in a power running scheme that features a lot of gap-style running plays. This requires a decisive mindset with fewer options to cut back. Richardson has not looked as impressive as I expected in the Browns' zone scheme. Some of this is due to Richardson trying to wait as long as he can for holes to open and not using his brute strength to get yards after contact that he's capable on plays that weren't blocked well. However, a lot of it also has to do with the Browns' injuries along the line. I think Ahmad Bradshaw has played well enough to remain a big factor in the Colts backfield, but the addition of Richardson gives the team long-term upside and I expect a 60/40 split in favor of Richardson within a couple of weeks.
ANDREW GARDA: Not only was Norv Turner killing T-Rich's value, but Chudzinski was as well. Last night, post Richardson trade, someone mentioned to Jay Glazer of Fox Sports that the trade wasn't a shock because Chudzinski hates RBs. He tagged DeAngelo Williams in the tweet and Williams added that yes, he was shaking his head over it. Over in Indy Richardson will never see another stacked box, and will get ample use in passing downs as he can protect Luck behind a shaky oline. T-Rich's value is looking up and hopefully you hung onto him.
C.J. Spiller - Fred Jackson still getting a lot of carries, including the goal-line work.
KYLE WACHTEL: Spiller has 42 touches through the first two weeks. There's not much reason to worry about Jackson when the ball is still getting to Spiller that often. The fantasy points will come with that number of touches and they'll come in bunches.
ANDY HICKS: C.J. Spiller would be the least of my concerns. He had only 200 carries last year and he is on pace to shatter that. His phenomenal six yards per carry in 2012 will inevitably drop, but the presence of Fred Jackson will ensure that Spiller is fresh to inflict maximum damage on opposing defenses. Spiller averaged a touchdown every second game last year, so although he is due for one soon, he is not going to threaten to break 10 for the season. Those who factored in a leap to the top 5 weren't doing their sums properly. The only chance Spiller has to reach that area is if Fred Jackson gets injured, which is a realistic probability for a 32 year old injury prone back. Nonetheless, he doesn't have to finish in the top five in order to be a solid contributor to your fantasy team, and I expect that he'll continue to be solid.
MATT WALDMAN: I thought Jackson looked more patient and better after contact than Spiller last week. Spiller reverted to that impatient, bounce-outside-too-early mentality that plagued him early in his career. However, his big-play upside makes up for a lot of that in the box score. It's still going to be a split for as long as Jackson stays healthy.
ADAM HARSTAD: C.J. Spiller's advantage has always been that he doesn't need a ton of carries to be effective. His disadvantage is that we have no proof that he is capable of handling a ton of carries, anyway. Through two weeks, both his strengths and weaknesses have been on full display- Spiller has been a guy who receives limited touches, but gets maximum return on them. As far as I'm concerned, he still is exactly who we thought he was, and I'm not panicking about him.
ANDREW GARDA: Spiller is still capable of a big play—as we saw last week—which can turn his value around. As EJ Manuel gets better, Spiller will recover. However that top five pick will probably seem a bit steep by years end.
A number of guys drafted to be fantasy RB2s have been disappointing as well. Let's do the same exercise with them.
Stevan Ridley - Patriots OL looks terrible; no running room. Vereen looked better in week one.
KYLE WACHTEL: The Patriots offense is lacking playmakers and it's actually weird to watch them sputter on offense. The injury to Vereen saved Ridley's value even if the Jets defense made it seem otherwise. Going forward, New England will be forced to rely on him and he should round into form.
ANDY HICKS: Stevan Ridley is one of the major losers in the struggling Patriots offense so far this season. He is another back who relies on touchdown production for his fantasy value and an early season fumble has not helped his situation. If the Patriots can get into a groove -- and there is no guarantee with a totally revamped playing unit and Vereen, Gronkowski and Amendola injured that it will happen -- but if the Patriots can start putting away teams earlier then Ridley will benefit the most.
MATT WALDMAN: I thought Ridley has looked good most of the time he's seen carries. The receivers have to improve for this offense to improve and that hurts Ridley until it happens.
ADAM HARSTAD: Ridley has looked pretty atrocious so far, but the entire New England offense has looked pretty atrocious so far. I'm willing to bet that the entire offense will turn it around -- this is still Tom Brady we're talking about, here -- and when that happens Ridley will be back to the guy he was last year: the kind of guy who'll get you 250 carries, very few receptions, and a lot of easy red zone TDs.
Maurice Jones-Drew - Lack of passing game allows defenses to stack the line of scrimmage.
KYLE WACHTEL: Jones-Drew's career seems to be hanging on to its last ligament (or thread if you prefer). The injuries have begun to pile up and there's really not much you can do with him, but hold on and hope for the best.
ANDY HICKS: Those of us who were hoping that last year was an aberration for Jones-Drew have been severely disappointed in his comeback games. He can no longer carry this awful team on his shoulders and the horror show should continue against Seattle this week. If he has any sense he'll rest his ankle this week in attempt to avoid embarrassment. After that I wouldn't expect much as this unit needs a revamp, Jones-Drew included.
ADAM HARSTAD: This is the first guy we've discussed that I'm willing to panic on. Jones-Drew is already dinged up again, but more concerning, that Jacksonville offense looks far worse than it's ever been before. I think Jones-Drew will get some big games from time to time as he manages to rip off a long run, but I think he'll be inconsistent. I don't think you can move him, given current perceptions of his value, but I'd be strengthening my backup situation just in case.
MATT WALDMAN: I'm done with Jones-Drew this year.
David Wilson - Splitting carries with Brandon Jacobs (and DaRel Scott) now, and Andre Brown should return before fantasy playoffs.
KYLE WACHTEL: Wilson's future still remains bright, but Tom Coughlin is an old-school coach that will make Wilson earn every snap. This is a scenario in which talent should ultimately win out, but if Brown returns to full-strength, he will have a sizable role. In redraft, you could wait until Wilson heats up and then look to trade him. In dynasty leagues, it's a good time to buy stock in him.
ANDY HICKS: David Wilson seems to take one step forward and three steps back. I can see both sides of the argument regarding the coaching usage of Wilson, but at some stage you just have to factor it in and let the kid play or the whole team is going to lose out. The Giants are looking chaotic, but they often do. Wilson will have very low confidence right now, but one 20 yard plus run should sort that out. Of course one more fumble in the next week or two and he may as well look for another team who isn't going to punish him for every mistake.
MATT WALDMAN: Wilson looked better last week and I think Coughlin will continue to feed Wilson more carries each week he didn't fumble. I think the way he protected the ball last week was a great first step. I'd still buy low.
ADAM HARSTAD: Wilson registered fewer snaps in week 2 than DaRel Scott. He had the same number of carries as Brandon Jacobs despite rumors that Jacobs wasn't in game shape. Right now, I wouldn't be comfortable with Wilson as anything more than a flex until his playing time starts to rebound.
ANDREW GARDA: David Wilson is a guy who is being overcoached now. He looks so uncomfortable carrying the ball like a newborn infant. Coughlin needs to let him run and lighten up on the ball protection—you can focus on improving that in other ways. If they don't Wilson will just continue to look awkward and not run as he can - the ball carrying method is hampering his athleticism and speed.
A lot of guys who've never been fantasy TE1s before are off to a hot start this season. Which guys are the real deal?
ADAM HARSTAD: Julius Thomas is the real deal, but he does carry some risk in redraft leagues. Right now, he's starting as Denver's in-line TE, which plays in all formations. Thomas is the only skill position player other than Peyton Manning to be on the field for all of Denver's offensive snaps so far this season. Thomas earned the in-line TE job because of an injury to Joel Dreessen, who has yet to suit up for a game. Unfortunately for Thomas, while Dreessen is limited as a receiver, he is a very strong blocker. With Ryan Clady's Lisfranc injury, Denver might decide that they want to get some better blocking help on the field to help out backup tackle Chris Clark. If that's the case, Thomas (who is a woeful pass blocker) could possibly fall from playing 100% of the snaps as low as playing just 33% of the snaps.
Peyton Manning and the Denver coaching staff clearly love what Thomas can do as a receiver, and as long as he's on the field he is going to produce. There's just a risk hanging over his head that his playing time will get reduced in the coming weeks, and we won't really know how that risk is going to resolve until Dreessen is back and playing. If you're a gambler, Thomas has top-5 upside this year. If you're a bit more risk-adverse and you can find someone in your league willing to pay you a king's ransom for Thomas after his hot start, it might not be the worst idea to at least listen to some offers.
ANDY HICKS: Adam summed up this situation better than I could, but with Denver having so many options in the passing game Thomas is bound to have down games, especially in the closer contests.
MATT WALDMAN: I agree with Adam; he's for real in the NFL, up and down for fantasy.
KYLE WACHTEL: I fall in line with the consensus here; Thomas is a legitimate talent, but the surplus of receiving talent on the Broncos limits him to a low-end TE1 for the time being.
ANDY HICKS: Bennett has done really well in Chicago and with the Bears lack of decent targets behind Brandon Marshall should continue to do so. I wouldn't expect the touchdown numbers to continue, but as long as he gets at least 6 targets a game he will be fantasy starter material.
MATT WALDMAN: He's seen a lot of third-down situations in Chicago and converted them. I do think the red zone opportunities will be higher than average for fantasy starters at the position because of the Marc Trestman offense that likes to target backs and tight ends in the red zone. The amount of work Forte sees in this area opens things up for the tight end as the constraint play of choice.
KYLE WACHTEL: Bennett is off to a terrific start, but his production is unsustainable. I expect him to perform closer to the TE1-TE2 border throughout the rest of the season and you could either look to sell high now or just continue to start him with more reserved expectations.
ANDY HICKS: Cook will probably have more games like his effort against Atlanta than the game against the Cardinals. The Rams obviously exploited a weakness in the Cardinals defense and it remains to be seen whether Cook truly has metamorphosed into a true starting Tight End or whether he has had one great game and a bunch of other ones.
MATT WALDMAN: Cook is the type of boom-bust tight end who will appear for real in the stat column at the end of the year but will kill fantasy owners enough weeks that they wish they had Bennett instead. I think Cook is playing good football, but there will be teams that can defend him and eliminate him from the game plan.
KYLE WACHTEL: Now in St. Louis, Cook is finally flashing the potential that many waited and waited for in Tennessee. The playing time will be there, but the Rams pecking order still seems to be in flux. At the end of the year, Cook should finish in the mid-TE1 range although there will be inconsistency along the way.
ANDY HICKS: Jordan Cameron was heavily hyped heading into the season and we can see why. Now Josh Gordon comes back, Trent Richardson has been shipped to Indianapolis and Brian Hoyer is starting. That's news just in one day, not the entire off season. Good luck expecting more stats like the first 2 weeks. After the Richardson trade, predicting what the Browns are going to do with any player is a mystery. Cameron could do more of the same, disappear or be shipped to the Arena league. Who can tell with that organization?
MATT WALDMAN: He was for real before Josh Gordon returned and Trent Richardson left for Indy. I still think there's enough talent along the offensive line to support Willis McGahee achieving similar numbers for the rest of the year that Richardson has started with, which means the real issue is whether Gordon's return limits Cameron's big-play opportunities down field. If anything Gordon will draw more looks from safeties and open the middle for the tight end. I think he's for real in fantasy and reality.
KYLE WACHTEL: The Browns new offense created a lot of buzz for Cameron heading into the season and after his breakthrough, he looked to be here to stay. Cleveland then shipped off Trent Richardson and will be starting Brian Hoyer in Week 3. This offense is a complete mess and that creates a ton of uncertainty. Eventually, Cameron should be expected to get back on track as a high-end option, but that may not be until next season. For now, he drops from a mid-range TE1 to a low-end TE1.
ANDY HICKS: Charles Clay has been the biggest surprise of all these Tight Ends. Bennett and Cook moved to new teams and looked to be the starters, Cameron and Thomas had a degree of hype on their expectations this year. Clay obviously leap-frogged into contention following the terrible Dustin Keller injury and has done real well in his first two games. I'd be cautious about a move into the top 12 Tight Ends, but I'd happily take him off the waiver wire to find out.
MATT WALDMAN: I love what I've seen thus far. The Miami offense has enough firepower outside for Clay to move around and find openings in the middle of the field and that experience as a fullback/running back tweener at Tulsa shows when the ball is in his hands. I think Clay has improved as a route runner since he first entered the league. He's fluid and more aware of what he's supposed to be doing. I'd take a chance on him if he's available and I bet and lost on the likes of Dwayne Allen.
KYLE WACHTEL: After two consecutive games in which Clay was productive, recording 5 catches in each, it seems that he has sewn up the starting job. The playing time should continue to lead to receptions as Ryan Tannehill dumps off plenty of passes this season. At the moment, he's now a suitable TE2 with spot-starting ability. The possibility of a few more goal-line carries also adds a nice bonus to his value.
Philip Rivers was drafted as a bargain-basement QB2 this season, but he's showing signs of a resurgence. What's the likelihood that he'll finish the year as a top twelve fantasy QB?
ANDY HICKS: I wouldn't get carried away just yet, but Rivers has looked much better under Ken Whisenhunt's offense than he has for the last few years under Norv Turner. He will not keep averaging 300 yards and 4 touchdowns every game, but have you seen the next 6 games on his schedule? All are games where he could easily post high numbers. Tennessee, Dallas, Oakland, Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Washington. Give that schedule to any quarterback and they should be posting good numbers. Top 12 numbers are definitely going to be achievable if he has more confidence in his coaching staff and teammates and I'd put it at around 50%. The second half of the season isn't as kind and I'm not sure if the Chargers can keep this level of play up for long.
KYLE WACHTEL: As Andy Hicks noted, the Chargers' upcoming schedule is relatively quarterback friendly. That slate of games is the only reason he's any bit of a commodity. Is there a chance that his hot start was enough of a boost for him to finish as a top-12 QB? Possibly, but considering Rivers' recent history and the lack of weapons, I'm not expecting him to perform as anything more than a mediocre QB2 from here on out.
MATT WALDMAN: I think QB1 status is achievable because the short passing game works better with this receiving corps and they stopped wasting time with Robert Meachem. Moreover, they figured out how to use Eddie Royal as a receiver.
ANDREW GARDA: I agree that Rivers has every chance of finishing the season as a top 10-12 fantasy QB. He's a guy I was excited to see with Mike McCoy and while Week 1 was shaky, he's really starting to look like the Old Rivers.
And here's a switch: the Chargers offensive line is giving him time! Right now NFL.com has them allowing just three sacks and six QB hits. By the end of last season it was 49 sacks and 70 hits—it sure looks like things have improved and that only means good things for Rivers and his owners.
ADAM HARSTAD: I'm buying Rivers and Gates right now. I think they'll both contend to be low-end starters at their respective position. There's not a whole lot of precedent for a QB as great as Philip Rivers used to be to suck as much as Philip Rivers did the last two years and ever come back from that again... but there is one name that comes to mind. Kurt Warner went from MVP candidate to journeyman and back to MVP candidate, so it's not completely unprecedented. (And he had his resurgence under Ken Whisenhunt, too.) I think Rivers is cheap enough that I'd be interested in taking a flyer on him to see just how legit he really was. And as Rivers goes, so goes Gates: if Rivers is a borderline top-12 option, then I bet Gates will be, too.
MAURILE TREMBLAY: Before last season, Rivers had been a top ten fantasy QB in five out of his first six seasons as a starter. When he has time to throw, he makes good decisions and is very accurate. When he is pressured, he forces the ball and it often sails on him. The Chargers' offensive line has looked much better this season than it did last season. If that pattern holds, I do expect him to finish as a top-twelve fantasy QB this season.
What do the rest of you think about Gates? What's the likelihood that he will finish as a top twelve fantasy TE?
ANDY HICKS: Antonio Gates didn't have a good first game against Houston, but definitely came to life this week with 8 catches for 124 yards. I would be surprised if he continued in that vein though given his advancing age and the variety of targets Rivers is deploying, but if he is finally fully healthy and if he can maintain that health then top 12 numbers should be achievable as long as he gets the odd touchdown thrown in.
KYLE WACHTEL: I've stubbornly had Gates penciled in as a low-end TE1 from the start. The yardage numbers will fall back to Earth, but in an offense that lacks established receivers, he should continue to get enough targets for low-end TE1 production for as long as his body holds up.
MATT WALDMAN: I agree with Kyle. Gates looks like his old self after the catch. Where he's surprisingly struggling are the tougher catches he used to make with ease. He dropped multiple passes last week and some of them were plays Gates in his prime would make. I think he's still the most reliable target and with Royal making plays, it means better opportunities for the older tight end.
ANDREW GARDA: Gates is tied for targets with Eddie Royal, but saw a huge surge between Week 1 and 2. He went from just four targets to a whopping ten—more than anyone on the team. As the offense goes, Gates will get his numbers and he absolutely has a chance for a very strong season. The only downside is Eddie Royal stealing all his touchdowns. If anything holds Gates back, it might be that.
MAURILE TREMBLAY: Gates has always had some frustrating drops, but the rate does seem to be higher this season than in the past. Nonetheless, he is accelerating and cutting much better this year. It looks like his foot and ankle problems are gone, and as long as he stays healthy, I think he has another season or two left in him as a fantasy starter.
Is Ryan Matthews going to continue to frustrate his fantasy owners? Can he be counted on as a fantasy RB2 this season, or is he merely a decent flex option?
ANDY HICKS: I would lean toward the flex/bye week option route I'm afraid. Mathews has been unable to handle a larger load in his career to date and until he develops consistency and endurance it makes it hard to rely on him as a starter in your fantasy league.
KYLE WACHTEL: Once again, Mathews finds himself on the sidelines for third-downs and passing situations. As the Chargers will often be playing from behind, being relegated to a two-down role will cost him a large chunk of touches. The positive news is that he was not benched after his fumble on Sunday and he has been running effectively. At the moment, he grades as a high-end flex play, which means he should still be started in most leagues, but he's far away from his 2012 ADP.
ADAM HARSTAD: Ryan Mathews is someone I'm not interested in. Through two games, he's played just 34% of San Diego's snaps (47 out of 139). That's fewer than Danny Woodhead (52 out of 139), and almost even fewer than Ronnie Brown (40 out of 139). It's hard to produce if you can't see the field. Right now, Mathews is a flex, although in PPR leagues I'd feel more comfortable flexing Woodhead, instead.
ANDREW GARDA: I was already really hesitant about him and then WOODHEAD HAPPENED. As pointed out, Mathews is off the field on third downs and Danny Woodhead has replaced him. That's nothing to create confidence in owners so it appears he will once again leave them hanging. I side with pretty much everyone else: he's a flex.
MAURILE TREMBLAY: He's not used often enough to be a reliable starter. He does some things well. He has a terrific combination of power and straight-line speed, and he's doing a better job this season of finding the right hole. But the Chargers have better backs in passing situations: both Danny Woodhead and Ronnie Brown are better pass-blockers and better route-runners. Given the Chargers' emphasis on the passing game, Matthews is relegated to a decent (not terrific) flex option.
Who do you like among the WRs? After Danario Alexander's injury, most people liked Vincent Brown to lead the group in receiving statistics. But so far Malcom Floyd and Eddie Royal, and maybe even Keenan Allen, have been more impressive.
ANDY HICKS: The targets seem to have been spread fairly evenly to date with 5 guys in the 11 to 14 target group through the first 2 games. Danny Woodhead, Malcom Floyd, Eddie Royal, Vincent Brown and Antonio Gates are all being involved and with Keenan Allen now introduced that group may grow further.
Is Vincent Brown a drop in shallow leagues?
ANDY HICKS: Vincent Brown has obviously been the most disappointing with only 6 catches for 39 yards. He has got into the end zone, which helps, but there is no way I'd be giving up on him just yet. Despite being in his third season he has little actual on field experience. With 11 targets he is getting as much of the ball as anyone and I'd be patient with him for a couple of weeks. If any receiver is going to separate themselves from the pack in San Diego I'd still think it would be Brown.
MATT WALDMAN: The quality of Brown's targets haven't been great. There was a deep cross Rivers threw too short, a comeback he overshot, and a couple more targets that were much closer than you think to being big plays that the numbers didn't show. I'd be patient with Brown after two games.
ANDREW GARDA: Patience with Brown. Brown is a guy I love who doesn't always seem to have the best chemistry with Rivers (hence Matt's mention of less-than-quality chances). He'll come around.
KYLE WACHTEL: Brown's production has been disappointing and he's inevitably going to find himself on the waiver wire in many leagues because of it. His upside merits a little more patience and I'll be holding on for a little longer in redraft leagues.
MAURILE TREMBLAY: I think Brown is somewhat similar to Malcom Floyd in that he makes a better NFL #2 WR than a #1 WR. He runs good patterns and has good hands, but he's not all that big or fast, and he has trouble getting separation against top-end cornerbacks. Floyd is bigger and faster, but isn't as sharp in his intermediate routes. If you put the two of them together, you have a prototypical NFL WR1, but neither of them really fits the bill on his own. Nonetheless, somebody on the Chargers is going to attract the opposing defense's top corner, and that's often been Brown so far this season. The result has been some difficulty getting open. Once defenses start to focus more on Royal or Floyd (or even Gates), however, I think Brown will have some big games. I don't think any of the Chargers' WRs will be consistent from week to week, however.
Malcom Floyd had over 100 yards in the first half against the Eagles before leaving the game with a neck injury. Is he going to be Rivers's favorite target this year when he's healthy? Or will that honor go to a different receiver every week?
ANDY HICKS: Depending on how he recovers from a neck injury, which looked terrible and thankfully isn't as bad as feared, Malcom Floyd will always attract the attention of Philip Rivers. Rivers and Floyd joined the Chargers in 2004 so have a 10 year rapport together. Floyd will always be in that fantasy WR3/WR4 territory.
MATT WALDMAN: I agree about Malcom Floyd and there's nothing more to add.
ADAM HARSTAD: I think, given his history with Rivers, Malcom Floyd is going to be the top option whenever he is healthy. He gets overlooked because San Diego keeps asking him to be an NFL #1 and he's simply not that good, but he's still very efficient and effective. I think the emergence of Eddie Royal as a legitimate weapon just opens things up for Floyd a little bit more.
ANDREW GARDA: Floyd, assuming he comes back from injury all right, is probably the guy who will put up the most consistent fantasy points. He is definitely a guy Rivers knows and trusts so targets will come his way. When is going to depend on the recovery and how he feels on the field when he comes back. Don't be shocked if he's a tad gunshy the first game or so.
KYLE WACHTEL: When healthy, Floyd has performed quite well over the last three seasons, averaging 64.5 receiving yards per game, and is the San Diego receiver to own. Staying healthy has been the problem with him; he's missed 11 games in that three-year span, had an ACL scare this preseason and is now dealing with a neck injury.
MAURILE TREMBLAY: Rivers and Floyd work well together, and Floyd is the team's best deep threat. I like him a lot in best-ball type formats because he will have some big games with multiple long receptions, but it's always difficult guessing which weeks they'll occur in. In traditional leagues where you have to set your starting lineup before the games are played, Floyd will be hit-and-miss from week to week.
Should we expect Keenan Allen to be fantasy-relevant this season?
ANDY HICKS: I wouldn't expect too much from Keenan Allen in his rookie year, but I would watch the next few games closely just to see how he is coming on.
MATT WALDMAN: Allen looked good last week. He had a nice catch on a dig route on third-and-seven with a good inside release on Brandon Boykin and then got open again but Rivers got hit while throwing the ball and it fell well short of target. Allen also made a nice catch on a low throw despite getting interfered with on the play. He has a drop, but it was a good attempt on a back shoulder play. I wouldn't be surprised if Allen grows up faster than we think.
ANDREW GARDA: Down the road, Allen will start to emerge as an intriguing WR3-4, but he's not there now.
MAURILE TREMBLAY: Allen has some of the same attributes as Eddie Royal. A few weeks ago, that wouldn't have sounded like a compliment, but both guys are more quick than fast and should thrive on underneath routes. Both guys also have reliable hands and good run-after-the-catch ability. Ultimately, I think Allen is more talented than Royal, but Royal's hot start will delay Allen's quest to become the primary slot receiver. With Floyd sidelined for a bit, Allen will get plenty of playing time, probably on the outside, where I don't think he's as good a fit as he would be in the slot.
Is Eddie Royal for real, or have the first two weeks been a fluke?
ANDY HICKS: The interesting one is Eddie Royal. He hasn't done anything of note since his debut season in Denver 5 years ago. In 2 games this year he has as many touchdowns as for the last 4 years. I really doubt he continues to produce at this level and the touchdown number is going to prove to be a serious outlier as the season goes on. Maybe he continues to average 5-7 targets a game and if he does he should still be on fantasy radars. I'd say his upside is as a WR3/WR4, just like Floyd and Brown. Brown has the most upside still in my opinion.
MATT WALDMAN: I understand the caution among stats geeks, but on the field Royal is benefiting from an offensive coach who is using him in situations where he's not forced to do a lot of thinking with multiple options. Royal does a strong job against man coverage and as long as the zone concepts don't force him to make a ton of reads, he's a high-end athlete with good hands. This might be a case where the coach hasn't over-thought how to use a good football player. I'd take the chance on Royal.
ANDREW GARDA: I do think Royal is for real, I just count him as a bit less consistent because we've had two wildly divergent yard totals to look at. If the offense clicks like it did against Philly, you'll get good yards and a more often than not a touchdown. But when it struggles, as it did against Houston, well you're praying the TD makes up for the lack of yards.
I agree that they are using him in much more logical ways more conducive to NFL and fantasy production and expect him to keep up good numbers this season, even if he's not a lock for 2-3 touchdowns a week. As long as he's in the slot, I like him.
KYLE WACHTEL: The Chargers' receiving corps remains a fluid situation. Any time a player records five touchdowns within a two-game span, it's a little fluky. Royal has produced in the past (WR20 in 2008), but he's not a player you can rely on each week and should be considered as no better than a WR4 for the moment.
MAURILE TREMBLAY: Eddie Royal is a role-player. He's not going to go against opposing teams' best corners and make a lot of plays. But lined up in the slot, if opposing defenses are concerned more with Gates, Floyd, and Brown, Royal will get open underneath and be a significant part of the Chargers' ball-control passing offense. The five touchdowns so far are absolutely fluky. Don't expect many more touchdowns. But in PPR leagues, Royal has value running high-percentage underneath routes, and he'll convert some of those into big plays after the catch.
That will do it for this edition of the Footballguys Roundtable. Please join us again next week.