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This week we discuss the following:
What we learned in week one
There's a general tendency to overreact to week one performances, but there are also some real insights that can be gained.
Name a belief you held a week ago that last week's games caused you to change your mind about.
Matt Waldman: I've changed my mind about Lamar Miller. I thought he'd be a solid RB2 with RB1 upside. I think the changes on the Miami offensive line have hurt this team and Miller has to get better at getting downhill. Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas are looking like this year's version of Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman from 2012.
Fred Jackson is another player I'm changing my mind on. I thought his burst was gone this summer. While he's probably a bit slower, he still looks good. He's patient, good after contact, and quick enough to get the job done. I wish I drafted him.
And then there's Reggie Bush. I figured 14-16 touches would be his limit. He was well over 20 last week and the Lions have no intention of capping him. I'm still leery of his ability to hold up long-term, but I'm not sure it's a fair assessment. Still, Joique Bell is a great hedge.
Chad Parsons: I agree with Matt about Reggie Bush. I thought he would be closer to a Darren Sproles or Jahvid Best-type player, but it looks like Detroit fully intended, probably to the detriment of how many games Bush can stay healthy for, to give Bush as many touches as any back in the league. While that is great from a points-per-game standpoint, like Danny Amendola owners, drafters of Reggie Bush need to get backup plans in place.
Will Grant: In the pre-season, I really thought that Michael Vick was done. I figured that between Nick Foles and Matt Barkley, Vick was either going to be replaced before the season started, or get the 'quick hook' by the second or third week in favor of one of the younger guys. He may not have thrown for 300 yards on Monday night, but I'm sure that fantasy owners will be fine with the 29 fantasy points that he put up. He still may not make it the whole season as the starter, but if you took a chance on Vick as your starter, you're sitting pretty right now.
Chad Parsons: While I thought I was more optimistic than almost everyone out there on the 2013 prospects for EJ Manuel and Terrelle Pryor (got them for virtually free in a number of 2-QB format leagues this year), they look to be even better for fantasy than I had hoped. Manuel was just as cool under pressure as he'd been in the preseason, even with Bill Belichick coaching on the other side. His upside is even higher as he is still on his way back physically to do more read-option and work as runner. Pryor looked like Cam Newton 2.0 as a fast tank in and out of the pocket against the Colts. Both are strong QB2's the rest of the way and will have a handful of QB1 weeks to boot.
Matt Waldman: I agree with Chad about Pryor. I thought Pryor looked a lot more sound with his fundamentals and that's a credit to his work ethic. I think he's worth adding even if you don't have a need at QB because his potential trade value might outweigh what you can get in free agency down the line and that's a win-win for you.
Ryan Hester: I liked the idea of Terrelle Pryor as a fantasy QB but mainly in 2QB leagues or QB flex leagues. However, he has legitimate redraft value in 12-team, one QB leagues already, and I think the arrow is still pointing up.
Greg Russell: I am buying into Anquan Boldin's performance and believe now that I did not have him rated high enough. Between Boldin's hands and Kaepernick delivering the ball with zip, not as much separation is going to be needed as corners just won't have as much time to close. The number of targets look like they will be there, especially as the 49ers did not make much effort to get the running backs involved in the passing game.
Adam Harstad: Like Greg, I'm buying big-time on Anquan Boldin. His week 1, to me, is shades of Reggie Wayne's 2012 debut (9 catches for 135 yards). The old man announced loud and clear that he's got enough left in the tank for at least one more top fantasy season.
Jeff Haseley: I completely agree about Anquan Boldin. I was so engaged in realizing that the 49ers offense is more of a run-oriented style, that rarely sees three-WR formations, that I neglected to realize just how effective their one main wide receiver can and will be. You can also say the same about Vernon Davis. Throw in the fact that the 49ers have a quarterback in Colin Kaepernick who after ten starts, led his team to a Super Bowl (and a near victory at that). We've seen this "quarterback out of nowhere" song played before - it was Tom Brady. So now we have a capable quarterback and a wide receiver who arguably may be the best wide receiver in this era. Yeah, it's crazy to say that, but think about what he accomplished. He understands the game, as evidenced by picking up the offenses of three different teams only to have a 100+ yard outing in his first game with each team. His week one performance as a rookie wide receiver for the Cardinals against the Lions was truly amazing and eye opening. The hit he took on a post pattern where Kurt Warner led him straight into a helmet to helmet collision that nearly broke his facemask could've caused other receivers to change the way they play the game. Not Boldin. He was back in the saddle again just two weeks later. Incredible! The guy is one of the best receivers to play the game and this season may just be the cherry on top. I wish I would've read the writing on the wall that was so clearly in front of me the whole time.
Greg Russell: DeSean Jackson I originally viewed as having upside in Chip Kelly's offense. But I felt the extra number of plays would be offset by the run to pass ratio enough that Jackson was a low end WR2 with a ceiling of being a high end WR2 in PPR leagues. I do still believe that run to pass ratio is an issue, but I did not take enough into account the impact that the pace would have on the defense's ability to cover. I think Jackson is going to have ample opportunity to break big plays against tired defenders. I'm revising my thoughts on Jackson to be a high end WR2 now with a ceiling up to middling WR1 territory.
Ryan Hester: I was also low on DeSean Jackson in the preseason, and I am fully ready to admit that I was wrong. I never saw Jackson as a precision receiver with great skills, but that offense is going to run so many plays that everyone will have some value. Jackson is clearly the top option as the other Riley Cooper and Jason Avant were used more as blockers than receivers on Monday night. Jackson is an every-week WR2 now.
Jared Cook also surprised me. It wasn't his talent that shocked me because he has always possessed elite athleticism and size. It was his role as St. Louis' number one receiver, even though he's a tight end. Cook was used at multiple levels of the field and also in the red zone. He's going to continue to be Sam Bradford's preferred option, and Bradford is a quarterback who was excelled at throwing to interior receivers so far in his young career.
Did you guys see any league-wide trends of note?
Stephen Holloway: It's becoming much more difficult to run the ball in a traditional manner in the NFL. The leading rushers on the week included Pryor, Reggie Bush, and LeSean McCoy, all being used in non-traditional ways. The Eagles opened a new page and had the most successful rushing attack.
Jeff Pasquino: Yes, it is far easier to have a 300+ yard passing game (or 400+) than to have a 100-yard rushing game. Three QBs topped 400 yards passing, and 12 had over 300. Two backs (McCoy, Vereen) rushed for over 100 yards - that's it. Sure, Reggie Bush had over 100 yards receiving - but that speaks more to the passing game.
Also, Week 1 is inherently sloppy. Three safeties on Sunday afternoon before 1:30. Fumble problems, subpar "studs" out of the gate (Robert Griffin III III, Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant) and games that are much closer than they should have been (12 of 16 games were by 7 points are less).
Another "big picture" observation is that fast-paced football is here to stay. Philadelphia ran 53 plays in the first half. New England ran 85 plays against Buffalo (the typical number is 60-65). Fantasy players who go to school on this and get players who play on teams with 20-30% extra snaps will be rewarded.
Week 1 waiver wire activity will be heavy, but also players who should not be cut will be (except Shane Vereen -- you have to do it). For every add, there has to be a drop, and teams will be hunting for running back help (especially Vereen owners). My advice is to hold tight and grab NFL backup RBs across the league, because injuries can and will happen -- and more importantly, RB value is very low right now (see the first point about a lack of 100+ yard guys).
Giants RBs
What's David Wilson's value going forward in redraft leagues?
Matt Waldman: While there's some definite PR from Coughlin to the media that David Wilson's fumbling issue is a temporary one, the Giants head coach helped Tiki Barber resolve a ball security issue that was just as bad. Coughlin also knows that Wilson is a great talent with the ball in his hands and no one they have now or add via free agency comes close.
While the coachspeak that every self-proclaimed hardcore fan will utter is that you can't play if you can't hold onto the ball, then what's up with Adrian Peterson? The Vikings' star had 20 fumbles during this first three seasons. I understand that Peterson stands atop the pantheon of current NFL runners, but I think there's a valid argument that if Coughlin were coaching the Vikings' back Peterson might have been benched just like Wilson. Coughlin would have been just as emboldened to give the quick hook to Peterson after seeing a happy ending with Barber's career.
Think of those games where Peterson had multiple fumbles and the Vikings continued to go to the well. Coughlin never gave Wilson that chance. And whether he's feeling the same way today, Coughlin stated to the media this summer that he had some regrets for benching Wilson for so long. I think there's a point where a coach's discipline can cross the point from constructive to demoralizing. I don't think the Giants are there with Wilson yet, but I think Coughlin has to realize that if they bench Wilson for multiple games this year, they are in danger of losing him as a future star. If they bench him for the long term again, I think they are about to cut their losses with Wilson as a member of their team.
I don't think this happens. I think Wilson may split time with Scott next week and lose the start, but he'll get a chance to play enough to earn the job back. Scott is fast, but his power and decision making is reserve quality. He's just beginning to show better pad level and finish on his runs at the NFL level.
At this point, Wilson is a mid-range flex option whose upside is still fantasy starter material. It could get worse if he fumbles again, but I think there's still a shot of working back to RB2 status in quick order. I think this situation comes down to whether you're an optimist or pessimist. I'm an optimistic in this situation, because I think Wilson's ability is too great for the Giants to cut the cord.
Will Grant: Wilson's stock went through the roof when Andre Brown was lost to injury. I drafted in a couple Wednesday night drafts and Wilson was going low second round. This was a guy who had just three game last season with more than 10 fantasy points. I'm sorry but I didn't believe the hype then and I don't believe it now. The Giants have already brought in Brandon Jacobs and Willis McGahee to compete. Even if they don't sign another free agent, I think that Wilson will probably split time with Scott for sure. I think the entire NYG backfield is going to be one big committee with several different guys getting touches here and there.
If you've got Wilson on your roster now, you probably can't trade him for second round value. Sit tight and hope that he learns to hold on to the ball more. If you're desperate for a RB though, I don't see this as a situation that you want to buy into. It feels like a giant headache to deal with the rest of the way.
Chad Parsons: I am right in step with Matt on this situation. Wilson may be tough to start in Week 2, but I have full confidence that he is in the plans for the Giants moving forward, he will get plenty of chances to be the lead back, and no on the roster or via free agency can match his talent or upside. I never thought Andre Brown was going to be the reason Wilson failed, if he did, this season or in the future. Let's remember that Wilson is just 22 years old this season, an age where most backs are still in college or yet to play a down in the NFL. He is just a baby in terms of his maturation into his ultimate destiny, NFL-wise or in fantasy terms. Patience is a very valuable quality for dynasty owners to have, but it also applies to redraft leagues. Selling a talented player after a subpar game or two can be the type of move that turns a potential contender in December into a team looking ahead to 2014 by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around.
Greg Russell: I agree that Wilson is still the most valuable Giants running back to have, and will remain so even if a veteran back is signed or if Andre Brown were to be magically healed and ready to go today. Tom Coughlin's experience with Tiki Barber will keep him from giving up on Wilson as quickly as he might have earlier in his coaching career.
Wilson definitely has more risk now, but I agree with Chad that showing patience is the right move in this case. I would suggest feeling out the Wilson owner to see if he is overreacting. A team lacking in other running back depth in particular might be willing to let Wilson go for a player with less risk but a lower potential ceiling.
Jeff Pasquino: David Wilson is a great "buy low" candidate. Yes, he was embarrassed - possibly humiliated - by having to stand idle on the sidelines in Week 1 with two fumbles after getting benched, but look at the Giants' roster. Scott? Really? No way he is your 20-carry guy. Scott had a lot of garbage time production later in the game where he got some dump-off passes, and he likely does not have much value going forward. Andre Brown is the guy to grab and stash if you can, as he is the only person who is going to challenge Wilson for touches once Brown returns to action. The signing of Brandon Jacobs is telling only in that they did not bring in someone like Willis McGahee or Jonathan Dwyer. Either of those guys would have pushed Wilson much more than Jacobs.
If the Giants can solve Tiki Barber's fumbling issues, then they can fix David Wilson. He is in a funk right now, and he did not have this big of a ball security issue at Virginia Tech. Put me down as a major buyer on Wilson (and having very modest interest in Scott).
Ryan Hester: At this very moment, David Wilson's value is a FLEX player. But for the rest of the season, I still see him as a legitimate RB2. He's all Tom Coughlin has right now.
Jeff Haseley: I agree with the consensus here: David Wilson is too good of a talent to not utilize him whenever possible. His fantasy points per touch last year was higher than Adrian Peterson's. To me that says a lot. When it comes down to Wilson's fantasy value I can't get away from the fact that the Giants have nobody else on the roster that is as talented a runner as Wilson is. It's not even close. Is he in a slump? Maybe, but he'll provide many more positive plays than negative ones. I believe the Giants realize this and will play him early and often. He gives the team the best chance to move the football as a running back. To me, it ends there.
What is DaRel Scott's fantasy value?
Greg Russell: DaRel Scott's value is going to peak very soon if it hasn't already. A veteran signing will of course immediately kill it. But even beyond that, Brown will eventually return, and Wilson is still very likely to remain the long term starter. If you cannot pry Wilson away from his current owner, then trading him Scott would be my next move before much more can develop with the situation.
Ryan Hester: DaRel Scott is "just a guy," and the signing of Brandon Jacobs shows just how valuable Wilson is to this team. If they couldn't find anyone better than Jacobs, they clearly don't intend to play anyone other than Wilson.
Would you trade Wilson for Andre Brown straight up right now?
Matt Waldman: The logic for taking Brown over Wilson is that there's a solid chance that Brown's pass protection is good enough to force a committee with Wilson even if the young star from Virginia Tech redeems himself. However, I trust Brown's ability to stay healthy less than Wilson's ball security issues. I'd rather go with the big-play guy who just needs experience on the field to grow into his paws.
Ryan Hester: I would not even think of trading Wilson straight up for Andre Brown right now. In fact, I believe that Wilson will right the ship enough to keep the answer to this question the same even if it were being asked the week Brown was coming back from his injury. Believe in talent. Wilson has it in spades.
Dolphins offense
Should Lamar Miller owners be trying to trade him for whatever they can get?
Matt Waldman: I think this trade issue of Miller raises a larger question about cutting your losses. Miller is clearly a sell low and I'd much rather buy low as a chance to cultivate a treasure trove of backs where Miller can be a low-risk RB3/RB4. But the reality is more likely that if you're reading this section of our Roundtable that you're wondering whether to unload Miller.
Cutting your losses is seen as a bad thing by many, but you have to know when to ditch a losing hand. I think the losing hand isn't Miller's talent; it's his line. The Dolphins offensive is a complex problem with some simple answers. Miller isn't as much the problem as the offensive line and the caliber of defenses the team appears to have on its schedule. I think the Dolphins will have some up-and-down weeks as a ground attack, but because Miller hasn't performed well to begin the season he could be stuck in a committee situation. By the time he's worth owning you probably had to stick with him for too long. I think the next three weeks against the Colts, Falcons, and Saints are good match ups for enough of a rebound to eventually trade him. I'd try to deal him after the Colts game next week and I'm generally patient with players.
Chad Parsons: I would be holding on to Lamar Miller as, at a minimum, his value will rise as he gets away from the Week 1 train wreck that was historically bad. He was probably drafted as a RB3 on most teams or a cheap RB2 on teams that are strong elsewhere. I still prefer him in that role to what an owner can get in return via trade.
Jeff Pasquino: This goes back to the weak overall running back pool. If you "cut your losses", who are you replacing Miller with on your roster? There's not much on the waiver wire in most leagues at running back to write home about, so you may as well hold onto him and hope things improve. Daniel Thomas vultured a touchdown, but his numbers (8-14 rushing, one 5-yard catch) are nothing to write home about. Cleveland's run defense was also very, very strong (and we will know much more about it after they face Baltimore in Week 2), so I would hold tight on Miller and not worry about Thomas.
Will Grant: I have Miller in one league this year, and the only reason that I'm holding on to him is the point that Jeff just made: the other options at RB are pretty thin right now. I know there will be guys that run out and get Brandon Jacobs because the Giants just signed him but if that's your best option on the WW at running back, I'd rather keep Miller. Unless you really waited on running backs this season, or you really reached to get Miller, you were looking at him as your RB3 / Flex position. Given that, I'll keep him at least another week or two, just on the off chance that he rebounds and might be worth something during a bye week shortage to another owner.
Jeff Haseley: I think we need to see more than just one week before we go labeling a player as a bust and searching for other alternatives. Would we be saying the same thing about Eddie Lacy if he didn't have a decent game against the 49ers? His preseason wasn't all that spectacular. Perhaps the Browns defense, particularly their run defense, is better than we thought? We are talking about a standout defensive mind in Ray Horton here. Lamar Miller should have a much better week 2 in my estimation. If the price was right, I'd definitely buy low.
Does Daniel Thomas have a reasonable shot at displacing him as the starter?
Matt Waldman: I think Thomas has the talent to force a committee with Miller, but I see this as a more talented version of the Jonathan Dwyer-Isaac Redman duo last year. Neither player is an ideal starter, but a bye-week or injury option that you can use in a pinch. The one thing in Thomas' favor against the Browns is that he was more disciplined making the correct downhill cuts. Miller had too many runs where he bounced the play outside and was forced to the flats or sidelines for no gains.
Will Mike Wallace end up as the Dolphins #1 WR, or will that honor go to Brian Hartline?
Matt Waldman: I still maintain Wallace will have a disappointing season compared to his tenure in Pittsburgh. However, I was surprised he didn't see a target until the third quarter of this game. I think Wallace and Tannehill will build more rapport as the season progresses, but I think the answer to your question is once again rooted in the play of the offensive line. I don't think Tannehill will have enough time to generate big plays to Wallace with the frequency to make Wallace the WR1 in this offense. Tannehill and Hartline also demonstrate a rapport that seems like second-nature on perimeter routes that I recognize from watching the likes of Brady-Welker (in the past), Ryan-White, and Manning-Wayne.
Chad Parsons: Mike Wallace was far away from my target list for this season and as a speed-based receiver, there will be better days when he pops a long touchdown. I would not start him outside of a WR4 or flex spot if I felt I was an underdog and needed the big-play potential, but hold for a few more weeks to see what develops.
Jeff Pasquino: Mike Wallace was draped by Joe Haden in Week 1, sure, but true WR1s can get open against anyone. Wallace cannot. The Dolphins way overpaid for Wallace, and they are going to pay the price for that contract (and headache on the sideline and in the locker room) for quite a long while. Hartline could easily finish with better PPR numbers than Wallace, and right now I think Hartline will outperform Wallace in standard formats as well.
Will Grant: Wallace may have better talent, but Hartline is a guy that I would like to have in a PPR league. The same offensive line issues that keep Miller from doing well will also keep the Dolphins from going deep very often this season. Hartline puts up classic possession-receiver type of numbers, and if the Dolphins are going to throw the ball, they're going to have to complete short or medium passes a lot. That's been Hartline's role for several years now and that certainly isn't going to change.
Jeff Haseley: I do have some concern with Mike Wallace. I purposefully did not target him in my drafts this year, because I don't think the Dolphins offense is right for him. The offseason news of Ryan Tannehill establishing more rapport with Brian Hartline also helped paint a picture in my head of what the pecking order could be like this year. I don't think Wallace will be a horrible option in 2013, but I also don't think he'll come close to what he accomplished at Pittsburgh.
Where do you rank Hartline in PPR scoring systems?
Matt Waldman: I think Hartline has a shot to provide low-end WR2 production. The schedule looks favorable for a lot of passing against some questionable units. I also think the top cornerback for reach team will get enough reps against Wallace to give Hartline nice matchups every week.
Is Brandon Gibson worth a waiver-wire pickup in deep leagues?
Matt Waldman: In larger leagues, Gibson is worth adding as an end of bench option, but I'm thinking leagues with 14-16 teams and roster sizes over 25 players. Gibson is an option who will provide some points but lacks great upside. I think his production this week was in the range of that ceiling and as the Dolphins work on getting the ball to Mike Wallace some of these targets may diminish.
Chad Parsons: Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson would not be on my radar to pick up or trade for. This will be a streaky passing game and one that I doubt approaches 40 pass attempts in a game more than a handful of times like they did in Week 1. Hartline and Gibson combined for 25 targets, which is far higher than I would project in any week going forward and Hartline scored a touchdown, something that has largely eluded him of late (just three scores in the past three seasons, spanning over 150 receptions). Hartline would be a WR4, bye week fill-in at best, with Gibson not gaining my attention from the waiver wire for a pickup this week.
Jeff Pasquino: I disagree with Chad: I am a buyer on both Hartline and modestly on Gibson. Hartline had a ton of targets, and he is the beneficiary of the unfortunate injury to Dustin Keller. If the Miami offensive line struggles to open up running lanes all year, Tannehill will be throwing quite a bit and both Gibson and Hartline will see plenty of targets. I would struggle to feel good about putting Gibson into a lineup, but in a PPR league I'm all over Hartline as a solid WR3 candidate. The NFL is a pass-first league, and the Dolphins are just trying to keep up. If Miami threw 40+ times in a game in which they held a lead for most of it, why would you think that they would taper off from that kind of passing attack going forward?
Jeff Haseley: Brandon Gibson is someone who intrigues me, especially after Dustin Keller was lost for the season. Watching him play the slot role last week, ensures that he will be on the field often. I don't think he'll see upwards of 10 targets very often though - that was more a product of needing to pass, due to the run game being non-existent. He's a wait and see guy in my opinion, but there is some reason for optimism.
Jaguars offense
Any buy-low candidates here? Or will this offense be a fantasy wasteland this season?
Will Grant: Cecil Shorts looked pretty good last season with Chad Henne throwing him the ball. I'm not sure how long Gabbert will be out, but at least for this week, I like Shorts to start for a WR3 / What the Heck Flex position. Maurice Jones-Drew always seems to put up solid numbers, no matter who is under center but he's looking like a very different back as of late. If he's your RB2, you might have a better option for him on your team at this point until their offense gets going.
In a PPR flex position, I might be tempted to swap Shorts in for Jones-Drew this week...
Chad Parsons: Considering the running back landscape after a rough Week 1, I would be more comfortable with Maurice Jones-Drew as my RB2 than it sounds like Will would be. In general this offense looks like a tough one to mine value from, but Justin Blackmon is the target player I would highlight. He is still out for three more weeks, but may hit the waiver wire in some more shallow leagues with hot pickups in full swing. I would love to have him as my WR4/5 once he gets back, so allocating a spot for him if he slips into the player pool, or offering an enticing trade to that owner, would be my preferential move.
Greg Russell: Jacksonville strikes me as a team whose players are not likely to be buy low candidates, even with the offense looking so poor. Anyone who drafted them did so knowing their quarterback situation, and likely were counting on a fair amount of garbage time production anyway. Week 1 may not do much to lower their opinion of their player. It may have even done the opposite. There are many people who think Henne is an improvement over Gabbert, and with the latter's injury might see Henne holding onto the job and increasing their player's value.
I do think there will be some value to be had in Jaguars players. But I think it will take the most panicked of owners to be ready to bail on Jones-Drew, Blackmon or Shorts already to where you will find much value in a trade. Especially until Week 2 plays out and people see how Henne does. Better to feel out an owner for now and if he is not interested in a sweet deal, then wait and check back if Henne lays a goose egg.
Jeff Pasquino: Justin Blackmon is worth stashing if you have roster room. Cecil Shorts should see more activity now with Chad Henne under center, as Shorts and Henne connected quite a bit down the stretch last year. As Chad rightly points out, MJD is worth rostering because there are so few feature tailbacks in the NFL right now, and having two Top 24 guys gives your team a major boost.
Aside from those three - I have no interest in Jacksonville.
Jeff Haseley: I think the clear answer here is to wait and see what Chad Henne brings to the table. I think both Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon will benefit from each other being on the field. When Shorts was out last year with a concussion, Blackmon struggled some. We saw similar effects with Shorts last week with Blackmon out. The true litmus test lies on how things will change after Chad Henne is inserted into the lineup, which I believe is where he should've been since he elevated the passing game last year. If I had to forecast the next three games while Blackmon is out, I'd say Shorts puts forth a decent effort worthy of a WR3 or flex option start. The targets were there (11), he just needs to come through. Let's see what he does this week against a weak Oakland secondary.
Your weekly FF routine
Tell me about your weekly preparation as a fantasy football owner. Do you have a set routine each week?
Let's start with Sundays. What's your setup for watching the games?
Chad Parsons: It all starts on Sunday, watching Directv's gamemix channel, especially at 1pm, where the football information overload is at an all-time high without a pause even for the bathroom for three or more hours. In the evening, I focus more attention to the Lions and Cowboys, the two teams I recap for Footballguys on a weekly basis. While I follow all 32 teams equally as a fantasy owner and analyst, these two teams get just that little bit of extra 'love' each week.
Greg Russell: How I watch games on Sunday has changed over the years. When I was younger I obsessed about my fantasy stats. I watched with Live Scoring beside me and flipped from one game to another incessantly to check on my fantasy players and see as many of their plays as I could. Over the years I have found more enjoyment in putting fantasy aside and watching football for its own sake. I tend to watch two games at once, pausing one on the DVR and watching until a commercial, then pausing to flip to the other and get caught back up. If my favorite team is playing, however, I tend to just focus on my team's game. I might check my fantasy stats after the early round of games, though sometimes I don't even look at scores until the afternoon games are complete.
Matt Waldman: I am watching Game Rewind these days and I take notes. However, this is not something I'd do if I were just playing the game rather than writing about it.
If I were to recall what I did before I started writing this much about football it would go a little something like this:
Saturday night, I'd shop for food that I can cook low and slow that night and into the next morning: chili, stews, hearty soups, pasta sauces, etc. That way, the family can serve themselves and I can be left alone all day Sunday.
Sunday morning, I settle into my converted garage/office, and read the Footballguys' news wire. I also check out the news and "MyFBG" page. You should really set one up. Nothing like consolidating information. It's the one thing I have that elicits that Chucky Stare from Gruden whenever I talk about it. I have either ESPN or NFL Network on to listen to any sideline reports pregame about injured players or last-minute developments.
Then I watch the games. In the old days I "watched" the games like a real fan: my gullet stuffed with some tryptophan-laced delicacy that helped me get comfortable on my futon/couch and doze in and out of Colts' games when Jim Harbaugh was under center and Marshall Faulk was whining about his front five.
I'm now trying to make it a habit not to look at fantasy scores until the end of the day. Too many leagues. I find that I can be doing great in five leagues and if I'm performing poorly in one, it ruins my mood for the day.
I also try to stay abreast of whatever's happening on Twitter. It can be a chore, though. I really need to create lists of folks I want to read on a regular basis who give good insights and separate it from the general population of folks I follow for various reasons who are there for the bar banter.
At the end of the night, I check scores.
Ryan Hester: Sunday mornings, I get on twitter from 11:30 or so until 1pm (or as long as my wife will tolerate) to check updates and get last-minute opinions. When setting my lineup, I go with my gut. On any tough calls, I continue to use MyFBG and Projections along with scanning FantasyPros to get another point of view. Ultimately, if my gut and the projections differ, I ask myself why. If I have a legitimate football reason, I go with my gut. If it's something silly like "I'm already starting this guy in another league, so I'll bench him here," then I go with what the other experts are telling me.
Sunday consists of me setting up my "Yellow Button List" on DirecTV. For those unaware, the yellow button on the DirecTV remote allows you to quickly cycle through your last four channels viewed. Along with the one you're watching, that allows for a five-channel rotation. The Steelers get first priority for me, and RedZone Channel gets second. After that, I pick the best three games. My favorite NFL Sundays are when the Steelers have a "standalone" game (i.e. Sunday Night or Monday Night) or a 4:25pm start so I can enjoy the bulk of the week's action during the 1pm hour.
During all of this time on Sunday, I'm tweeting all of the updates and opinions (but opinions only come on things I see first-hand, as opposed to live-scoring updates).
Will Grant: Sunday morning is reserved for any last minute lineup changes and then it's on to the games. I take recap notes while the games are live and then I compile my recaps and use NFL Game rewind to review anything that I missed. During the Sunday night game, I'm usually reviewing my leagues, checking to see how I'm doing, and I start making mental notes of guys that I want to pick up for next week. I also try to fire up my twitter feed because there are a ton of great comments and 'extras' for NFL insiders on all the games that are going on.
Jeff Haseley: I'll watch my local team Carolina Panthers first and foremost with my laptop in front of me dialed into the DirecTV NFL Redzone Channel. This way I can enjoy the Panthers game and be ahead of any news going on in other games. If there's a game or player I want to know more about, I will watch the 30 minute game rewind the next day or throughout the week. I love that there are so many ways to get as much information as possible. You can't say this about any other sport. Nothing beats the NFL. One other plug I wanted to share is for two shows that really do a good job of breaking down match ups and player evaluations, etc. That's AFC/NFC Playbook on NFL Network and ESPN Edge NFL Match up. I learn more information watching these two shows than I do any other source on television. Bar none, the best shows to watch to get a feel for how a player will perform, what teams will scheme, etc. If you're not watching, be sure you check it out. You won't be disappointed.
What's your routine during the week?
Chad Parsons: Monday is the big film-watching day of the week. I watch every snap of every game (yes, the end of the Jacksonville-Kansas City game was tough to sit through this past week) and take notes of players, situations, trends, etc.
Tuesday, I watch the Monday Night game on DVR as I rarely (outside of the gamemix on Sunday) watch a live football game. The 3-4 hours seems like such a waste when I can go to bed early and watch all the plays in 30-45 minutes the following morning. I also formulate my 'next week' plan in terms of waiver wire requests in my 30-35 leagues and throw out a few trade offers as I see fit.
The rest of the week is a consistent cycle of getting a feel for lineup decisions to monitor for the coming week. Injuries to track, checking the great MyFBG tool on Footballguys that syncs all your leagues, projections, available players, etc. customized to your scoring and settings. It is a beautiful thing.
Matt Waldman: Monday, I read about injuries on the news wire, Mark Wimer's report, and anything Jene Bramel has to say. I used to read Peter King's "Things I Think I Thunk . . . (Ya Think?)" from his Monday Morning QB column. Then I'd check out the game recaps. Now, with my writing responsibilities, I no longer have enough time for Peter King, sad to say. Instead, I watch NFL Game Rewind in the evening and late that night and take notes.
Tuesday, I read injury updates and this is probably when I'd start watching Rewind in the past. Nowadays I'm wrapping up my Rewind viewing. I'm setting my starting lineups for the following week and making waiver wire requests.
Wednesday and Thursday, I try to call Bloom and Bramel to distract them while they're waiting until 12:16 a.m. to pick up leftover free agents on the cheap. I'd do the same with Clayton Gray, Aaron Rudnicki, and Jason Wood if they didn't block my number. I also read Bob Henry's Sleepers column.
Friday, I'm making more waiver additions, following the news, adjusting my lineups, and wheeling and dealing as it comes up.
Ryan Hester: Let's start at Tuesday because that's when the fantasy football week really begins. On Tuesday, I skim each box score (even if I watched the game, saw highlights, or have already read about it). After that, I go more in-depth and read the Game Recaps here at Footballguys for players I own and any players I may be looking at in trades or waiver adds. I have one league that processes waiver claims on Tuesday nights, so I have to be sure to get those in. To help me, I listen to Sigmund Bloom and Cecil Lammey on the Audible Waiver Wire Podcast. I also read the Upgrades and Downgrades to get Sigmund's opinion on each player -- both waiver possibilities and players already owned.
Wednesday, I begin ranking all of my players for FantasyPros.com. When doing this, I am making mental notes in order to help in setting up my lineup. After doing a first-pass on my rankings, I switch to lineups mode. I use MyFBG to incorporate the settings and rosters of each of my leagues and use the FBG Projections from David Dodds and Bloom. These pages are invaluable as they highlight my players and free agents. It helps give me ideas who to pick up and who to start.
Thursday, I am always evaluating potential trades. After the draft, trading is the aspect of fantasy football which provides the most control for owners. I love speculating on players and making deals. I also scan my lineups one more time to evaluate any Thursday players.
Friday is my time to catch up on work that I've been missing all week while reading, setting lineups, and evaluating trades.
Saturday, I watch a lot of College Football (have to keep up on my dynasty teams!) and scan the news, mainly via the FBG Daily E-mail.
Will Grant: Ryan made me laugh with that response. After hearing what everyone does every week, I'm completely struck by how crazy obsessed we are about this game.
For me, the fantasy week is not nearly as involved as some others that people have discussed, but my wife calls herself the 'football widow' for the next 16 weeks.
Monday starts the clock. Aside from film review and game recaps of my favorite teams, I'm reading the waiver wire picks. Since I don't have time to watch every game like Matt, I need this to keep me posted on all of the things that I didn't get to see. During the Monday night game, I'm scanning the other recaps because I know that at least 2 FBG staff watch every game and comment on every offensive play. They'll see a lot more than I will watching Red Zone or highlights on NFL.com.
Tuesday morning, based on the info from the waiver wire email and the game recaps, I make my initial waiver wire claims in all of my fantasy leagues. Some use a blind bidding method and some are power-matched, so my goal here is to put in a claim for at least 2-3 solid players that will upgrade my team with the best available player, regardless of position. Then I dive into my dynasty/keeper analysis, looking for guys who might not be an obvious add, but could help me with long term potential.
Wednesday is 'fun' day. I start by updating my waiver wire claims based on the keeper / dynasty analysis and the needs of my team for this league. I'll usually set a 'preliminary' lineup on Wednesday as well, especially for any guy who might play on Thursday night. This way, if something comes up at work, I at least have my Thursday guys locked in. Then I'll turn to the more 'fun' games like 'pick'em games, survivor games and confidence pools. These need to post for FBG on Thursday so that subscribers can take advantage of it so they need to be done on Wednesday night. I'll also take a look at my leagues in the MyFBG app, looking for any holes in my lineup and seeing what other potential waiver wire pick-ups that I might be able to add. I love the way that it's configured to every league that I play in so that I don't have to think about if this league is a PPR league or not. If I can still pick up a guy to give me a couple extra points, I do that and stick them in my lineup.
Thursday it starts to get serious. I'll review the injury reports and tweak my lineups to make sure I'm not starting anyone who is hurt on Thursday. I'll also dig into my daily games on FanDuel and Fantasy Throwdown games, making sure that I have things all in line for those for the weekend. FBG has multiple fan duel articles and I just standard FBG projections to help me with my Throwdown picks. I may even throw out a couple invites to people depending how things are playing out. I'll usually multi-task these while watching the game. Side note: since Matt doesn't call me, the only way I can get the time of day from him is to challenge him at Throwdown and get my ### kicked week after week. Once in a while I get lucky, but it's more about just thinking I'm cool enough to hang with him.
Friday and Saturday are 'light' days - I review the news and injury reports looking for any last minute lineup changes that I might want to make through any of my leagues or my daily games. I also use this to get my weekend tasks done with my family and my kids. One thing that keeps my wife from moving my stuff out on to the front lawn during football season is that I prioritize my family first. Having a full time job and a full time hobby means I don't have a lot of extra time to get things done around the house and help out. Friday and Saturday I make sure those are taken care of so that when the football frenzy starts on Sunday, I can focus on the games.
It's funny that when it's going on though, it really doesn't seem like a lot. However, when you look at it in one place... I'm probably lucky that there are only 17 weeks of this. I'd probably be divorced and homeless otherwise.
Jeff Haseley: I wouldn't really say that I have a set schedule, but I'm always immersed in what's going on, whether that's twitter, the Internet, watching game rewind, listening to sports radio, podcasts, reading articles from fellow writers and team reporters, etc. This is a Sunday - Sunday thing. It's non-stop.
What's your general strategy for working the waiver wire?
Chad Parsons: In terms of waiver wire strategy, I am not one to use the no.1 waiver wire position on a marginal player. In leagues where once you claim a player, you go back to the end of the line, I am stingy to get an impact player. Jerome Simpson and, considering the position, Julius Thomas are not worthy of burning that luxury spot post-Week 1 in my opinion. The other leagues I play either have a set amount of money for the season to use or a hard salary cap to use for the entire roster at any given time. I stream defenses and (occasionally) kickers, so I will typically throw a dollar or two in those directions when needed to get a good matchup for the coming week. Otherwise, I am largely inactive compared to other teams in the league. I need a really good reason to move away from the players I just targets before the season into positions of 'flavor of the week.' When a marginal player is coming off a big week of production, what is most likely to happen? From my research, it is to turn back into a pumpkin. A fantasy does not get credit for points scored on the waiver wire or on your bench, so I typically bet on the talented players that did not put together a solid game for one reason or another as bench stashes or waiver wire acquisitions.
Greg Russell: I like to get a first pass of my waiver claims in as soon as Monday Night Football is over. I clarify my thoughts about the players largely without outside influence. Later I vet my opinions against MyFBG. Around Week 5 or 6, I begin heavily using the Ultimate Strength of Schedule as well. I'm particularly active when it comes to IDP waivers, as I frequently swap out all but the most elite IDP for those with better weekly match ups. For IDP I use box scores and play by play logs from ESPN or NFL.com, as well as look for commentary in the IDP forum. I'm frequently looking 2 weeks ahead with my IDP waivers, though I do refer to MyFBG rankings for the current week's IDP.
Jeff Haseley: All of my leagues have a blind bidding process for waiver claims. I have to be honest, I get nervous about this process every time there's a move I REALLY want to make. As much as I don't like the blind bidding system, I believe it is the most fair way to decide waiver claims. Everyone has a say in what players are awarded to who. This is where strategy and knowledge really comes into play. To make this process less nerve racking and confusing than it already is, I highly encourage all subscribers to use the MyFBG tool. If you don't know what that is, or have questions about how it can help you decide on which players to start or pick up via waivers, you must read this article that I wrote that explains the MyFBG tool and how to use it to your advantage. I eat, sleep and drink this tool every week when making my lineup decisions. I highly encourage others to do the same.
Do you set your lineups early in the week and then revisit them later, or do you wait until a little before the first game starts?
Chad Parsons: I set my lineups early in the week, as soon as I get the defense and/or kicker from the waiver wire I want, as you never know if something will come up on Saturday or Sunday to cause a glitch in the matrix where you don't have the time to submit them all. As injuries or matchups clarify themselves late in the week, I will adjust as needed, but at least 90% of my submissions on Wednesday or Thursday of a week stay put by the time Sunday and Monday roll around.
Greg Russell: My routine for setting a lineup is similar to how I handle waivers. I set one early both to make sure I don't miss setting it, and to capture my own thoughts before I start seeing other's views. I vet my lineup against MyFBG and if there are disagreements I investigate further to see if I have failed to take something into account, or if I just feel differently.
Is there anything in particular that you try to make sure you read or watch each week?
Greg Russell: I find the Game Recaps to be invaluable, especially on those occasions I cannot watch all of a game myself. While the video Short Cuts of each game are helpful to get a viewing of a game into a short time, I do find that there are enough nuggets of wisdom from broadcasters about player usage or coach views on players that I would prefer to watch the full broadcast if I am able. To keep up on news during the week, apart from having NFL Network on in the background most of the day, I pay close attention to the Footballguys daily emails as well as to daily news updates from my league's host site.
Jeff Haseley: I try to read Peter King's MMQB article every week, just because I like his work and his approach to football. I basically read whatever interests me. In this day and age when everything can be accessible via the Internet and promoted by Twitter, there really is no end to what's available, if you just start looking for it. There are many talented writers, who have outstanding opinions on certain players or topics. We can say we have our own opinion on different topics, but ultimately the thought process and thinking originated from some other source. We're just providing our own thoughts based on what we've learned. If I read an insightful, well-written article, I'll be sure to promote it on twitter, because if I liked it, I want others to enjoy it too. That's just one facet of twitter that I appreciate so much - the ability to promote and share the work of others.
That will do it for this edition of the Footballguys Roundtable. Please join us again next week.