This week we discuss the following:
- Week 17
- Stud RB Theory?
- Stud QB against QBBC
- Individual talent against team situation
- Increasing the level of difficulty
- 2014 Mock Draft
Week 17
Week 17 is championship week in a substantial minority of leagues.
Without overthinking things or getting too cute, are there any players that you think a lot of fantasy owners will start this week even though they shouldn't, or players a lot of fantasy owners will keep on the bench to their own detriment?
Jeff Haseley: My suggestion is to take a long look at Knile Davis against the Chargers. In the past, with Philadelphia, Andy Reid has had success in the playoffs after resting his starters in week 17. Kansas City is locked into the five seed and would stand to benefit from giving their starters rest before the playoffs begin in two weeks. Resting Jamaal Charles would mean Knile Davis becomes the team's primary ball carrier. If given the start, I like his chances of putting up decent numbers as a rusher and receiver. He would be a decent RB2 option in week 17 who otherwise would not be a fantasy consideration.
Heath Cummings: I like Jeff's suggestion of Davis, but I'll go with a different running back here. Bobby Rainey has struggled the last two weeks but he's facing a Saints defense that is coming off a downer and just lost Kenny Vaccaro, who has been huge in run support. The absence of Vaccaro greatly increases the odds that Rainey gets loose in the secondary. He's had two touchdowns of 40+ yards already this year and I wouldn't be surprised if he got his third in this one.
On the other side of the spectrum, I would stay away from Andy Dalton this week. Dalton carried many a team to the championship last week but I hate his matchup against Baltimore this week. Dalton threw three picks in his last matchup with the Ravens. Baltimore has much more to play for this week than Cincinnati, and that makes me think that their defense will come out hot after last week's embarrassment against New England.
Jason Wood: A few ideas comes to mind:
I'd be leery of starting DeMarco Murray. Without Romo I think the Cowboys could totally flounder this week. That offensive line isn't very good and Orton won't punish the Eagles defense deep so they'll be able to key on Murray.
I'd also hesitate to start Rashad Jennings. I'm seeing Jennings ranked highly on a lot of sites, particularly those like ESPN that do commonly have Week 17 finals. McFadden vultured the TD last week and I suspect the Raiders will give McFadden plenty of run to see what they have in the player and whether he's worth keeping in their future plans.
Mark Wimer: I'm leery of any Washington players this week as we have an exiting coaching staff and a team with nothing to play for during week 17.
On the flip side, I've always thought that Kyle Orton was underrated so I think the Cowboys' players are not necessarily a poison pill this week. Orton played well during stretches in his career and can win at this level (81 touchdowns against 57 interceptions thrown in his career)—also, given the fact that Orton will be tied more closely to the game plan and not calling as many audibles, I think DeMarco Murray may actually be better off with Orton under center rather than Romo.
Stud RB Theory?
In standard 12-team leagues, generally about two-thirds of the picks in the first two rounds will be running backs. With the way that so many offenses have become so pass-heavy, is that pattern still appropriate, or do you think drafts have become too RB-centric in the early rounds such that it's usually profitable to buck that trend and find better values at other positions at the top of the draft?
Stephen Holloway: I suspect that there will be fewer running backs than stated taken in the first two rounds in most drafts in 2014. If you find yourself in such a running back dominated draft, an excellent strategy is to go wide receiver or tight end early. Each league has different starter requirements, but particularly with increased flex players and especially in leagues with higher number of overall starting positions, you can gain a distinct advantage by focusing on the receivers early and often. Bucking the trend (if it remains in 2014) should continue to be very profitable.
Dave Larkin: While observing the trends in terms of ADP and position depth in any given year is a useful exercise to gain a better understanding of the pool of talent available, I am in the camp—and I may be in the minority here—of taking the best player available. Before a draft we all have our rankings done by position, but having a clear sense of who you value more between, say, LeSean McCoy and Calvin Johnson, across positions is key. A useful exercise I employ is to project each player's statistics and, keeping your league scoring system in mind, create a rankings list for clarity. If Player X is my top-ranked player when my team is on the clock, I will usually take him. As for running backs in general, as Matt Waldman has shown in some of his best articles, running backs have the highest turnover rate from year to year, with the top 12 in constant flux. Wide receivers tend to be more steady. If I was in a dynasty start-up situation, that might change my outlook slightly. In general though, it's BPA.
Heath Cummings: I do think that elite receivers have earned a spot at the early round table. Running backs are still thin, but they're also unreliable. Doug Martin, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, and Trent Richardson were all popular first round picks and they all ended up hurting their owners. On the other hand, Julio Jones is the only elite receiver that was hurt or seriously disappointed. I think the VBD will probably still tell you to go running back, but the predictability lends itself more to receivers.
Jason Wood: For a few years now, it seems we and other prognosticators have begged fantasy owners to forgo the classic RB-heavy early round strategies for a more balanced approach that takes the elite players available at whatever position. Then, for some reason, the collective wisdom switched firmly back into the "you HAVE to take at least two running backs in your first three picks" this preseason. I was amazed at how that was pitched as the clear cut, can't miss strategy. Well, it missed. And missed big. Other than perhaps Jamaal Charles, how many teams rode their first/second round running backs to titles? It was instead those teams that had the likes of Peyton Manning along with two or three stud, 100-catch receivers that most commonly made, and won, their Super Bowls.
I think the very top running backs are still the top picks. I just think we need to be realistic about where the line in the sand is drawn. Jamaal Charles? Sure. LeSean McCoy? Definitely. But can you honestly say you're going to feel better drafting someone like Reggie Bush or Zac Stacy next year over Demaryius Thomas or A.J. Green? I won't. And you can be SURE that quarterbacks will go high next year. I would think Manning and Brees will be first rounders in almost every league, and another three or four passers will be off the board in the top 24-30 picks in every format.
Stud QB against QBBC
Foregoing a QB in the early rounds and planning to go QBBC with several later-round guys used to be a popular strategy. Is that still conducive to fantasy success, or have stud quarterbacks become too important to forego?
Stephen Holloway: It is difficult to state an overall strategy for all drafts as you must remain flexible and draft value where it falls, but in general I prefer to wait on a quarterback. The point in waiting is not necessarily to draft two platoon players, but rather to draft a quarterback that you will trust as your every week starter and getting him at a later point in the draft, so that you can gain sufficient advantage at other positions and the differential loss at quarterback will not be too much to overcome. At this point in 2013, there are already 18 quarterbacks who have passed for over 3,000 yards and most of those will eclipse 3,500 yards for the season. Granted that most of these guys are well behind Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, but Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger are 2013 exampleslately round values and Nick Foles, who will be starting in many championship rosters this week and next was often a waiver wire selection this year.
Matt Waldman: I'm generally in the same camp as Heath and I wait on quarterbacks. However, I've had great success with taking a stud quarterback. I have two basic tracks I consider on draft day. The first track is the intention of taking a stud quarterback. Although Aaron Rodgers is arguably the best quarterback in the game, I'm more inclined to roll with Brees or Manning—two players who don't rely on their legs as much as Rodgers and rarely take sacks. Quarterbacks with custom-built offenses for their abilities who don't get hit a lot are like gold. Therefore, I determine the rounds I'm comfortable taking one of Brees or Manning and pull the trigger. If both are gone by that point, then I wait until rounds 8-12 and pick at least one passer during that range.
Another strategy that I believe is worth considering is hording talent at a position. If you're in a league with 14-16 teams with QB scoring that has features such as penalties for interceptions, 5-6 points for touchdown passes, or distance bonuses for touchdowns and/or 300-yard games, I'd be more apt to take the likes of Brees or Manning early and then also grab one of the better values in that 8th-12th round range. This year that player was Russell Wilson. In fact, I'd consider 3-4 quarterbacks in my draft if I find myself in a situation where I'm considering players that I don't believe match their ADP and am only thinking about them because of position need.
If you're good at building a team during the season then FORGET POSITION NEED if you can nab three excellent quarterbacks, three top tight ends, or five WR1-WR2 types. You'll be trading from a position of strength and can shop for the players you want on a roster than settle for a player you didn't want to draft. I understand this isn't the road for many fantasy owners, it's always valuable to think about ways to build the best team that don't travel the same worn-out road that everyone else traverses.
Dave Larkin: I think there will be a bit of a difference of opinion on this point between fantasy owners. My personal strategy is to take an elite QB if he is available and ride him for the entire season. Having to platoon two guys and make a decision each week—sometimes resulting in pulling your hair out when you realize you chose the wrong one—isn't the best place to be. I'd rather have a 'set it and forget it' option at that position that gives you a +10.0ppg difference on a weekly basis over your rivals' passers.
Heath Cummings: Considering that my one championship this year came with a combination of Andy Dalton, Michael Vick and Josh McCown at quarterback I'd absolutely agree with the late round QB strategy. The one argument is the performance of Peyton Manning, but that's a difficult point to make because Manning was far from the first quarterback taken. In fact, a majority of the top five quarterbacks were what you'd call late round guys. I won't take a quarterback before the first half of the league already has theirs.
Jason Wood: Any strategy can be productive; there's no blueprint. I took a look at several of my championship teams this year. In two cases seven of the players in my lineup were guys I either picked up in free agency or traded for. In another league I had six of ten. In two others five of nine players were acquired after draft day. We overvalue our drafts tremendously because we inherently spend so much time prepping for that one event, and then every other aspect of team management is by nature rapid fire, quick thinking and reactive.
If you took Peyton Manning, things were blissful. Yet if you grabbed Colin Kaepernick or Andrew Luck? Not so much. The simple answer is, taking an elite QB early makes a ton of sense...if you get the right player. Meanwhile guys like Nick Foles and Josh McCown came out of nowhere and helped teams win their leagues. I think you have to be realistic. Take an elite guy early or wait. Don't be that guy that convinces himself that taking QB11 and QB12 is a shark move. It's not. If you're going to wait, take QB11 and then take QB16 several rounds later and then be ready to strike when the waiver wire presents something.
Individual talent against team situation
When we evaluate players before the start of the season, we take both their individual talent and their team situation into account. Looking back on the 2013 season (comparing preseason rankings to end-of-season results), do you think that people generally placed too much emphasis on one of those factors at the expense of the other? Should we collectively readjust the relative weights we give to them?
Stephen Holloway: Many folks (myself included) probably don't pay enough attention to offensive line play in the evaluation of offensive players. Drew Brees has still had an outstanding season, but there is no doubt that the Saints offense is much less capable in 2013 because of deficiencies on the offensive line.
Dave Larkin: I'll speak from my own experience here by saying that I think, against my better judgment, I've relied too much on individual talent in the past. Team situation is a very important factor, more so in redraft leagues. In dynasty formats being able to accumulate talented players and watch them grow is part of the fun, but perhaps it is better to be smarter about our choices in redraft leagues. Falling in love with a player's situation, conversely, can lead to bad decisions and overdrafting too, so having an even keel view, all the while learning from the history of that player/franchise, is the best approach.
Heath Cummings: I think we did underestimate the importance of team situation in 2013, especially the change in team situations brought on by coaching changes. Marc Trestman, Mike McCoy, and Andy Reid had a huge impact on fantasy football this year. The biggest surprise amongst quarterbacks (Rivers), the number one fantasy running back (Charles), and one of the biggest breakouts at receiver (Jeffery) all came from new coaches. Is this a one year trend or something to readjust? I'd lean more towards it being an anomaly. What are the odds we have three great offensive minds like Trestman, Reid, and McCoy in their first year in the future?
Jason Wood: I don't think so, but I do think that we perhaps don't have perfect information and tend to overstate the talent factor based on recency bias. Many of us (myself included) are guilty of crafting a narrative and then finding very strong statistical evidence in support of that. I think the key to being successful in today's fantasy football world is to COMBINE statistical analysis with film study. There is such a wealth of accessible data out there, even for the layperson, that only by watching the tape can we fully differentiate between the numbers that matter and those that don't.
Increasing the level of difficulty
It seems like decent fantasy football information has become more accessible to the average fantasy owner, and the gap may have narrowed between the stronger and weaker owners in many leagues. What are some ideas for league rule changes that would help allow stronger owners to put more distance between themselves and the more casual fantasy owners?
Matt Waldman: IDP leagues with scoring that evens the playing field with all positions in terms of scoring potential is a good way to up the ante of football knowledge.
I also suggest striking a strong balance with position-specific scoring with the right number of flex positions in a fantasy lineup. If you can find the right balance between creating lineup options that can generate a talent gap at each position fast enough in a draft that teams are forced to take more creative strategies to build good teams, it might be a good solution. However, I do wonder if this just creates more parity without a real demonstration of skill.
The answer might be to have fewer flex options in a lineup and position-specific scoring that evens the playing field among the top players at each position. Make it so teams actually suffer if they don't acquire difference makers at the top.
Stephen Holloway: This is a difficult question to answer, but is one that lots of folks are interested in. Increasing the number of starting positions and increasing the roster size could reward the better prepared fantasy players. Another is to re-evaluate positional scoring so that no individual position is valued above others helps to encourage a variety of draft strategies and again reward the more prepared.
Dave Larkin: A fascinating topic. I'm with Matt on this one. Introducing IDP into any league is a must and really adds to the knowledge an owner must have to succeed. Of course I'm biased (being an IDP nut) but I feel very strongly that leagues without defensive players are 'watered down' versions of fantasy football. The gap certainly is narrowing between the stronger and weaker owners, but to be honest I see this as more of an evolution of the hobby than anything else. The more popular fantasy football becomes, the more people will have a thirst for knowledge to win their leagues. If nothing else it puts pressure on the so-called stronger owners to raise their game. I, for one, embrace it.
Jeff Haseley: I agree with this assessment. One idea to reduce luck is to have larger starting lineups. I am also a fan of starting two quarterbacks and having a dual flex. Combining those would mean there's more strategy involved in lineup decisions, not to mention waiver wire claims. Implementing a blind bid process for waivers also increases strategy. The more you increase the need for strategy, the better off those in the know will be.
An example of a starting lineup in a 12-team, 2QB league would be: two QBs, two RBs, two WRs, two Flex, two Ks, two Defenses. Nine bench players filling a roster of 20 per team.
This format would yield 240 total players spread through 12 teams. There would be little to choose from on the waiver wire and each bench would be filled with potential low-risk, high-reward players. Perfect for a league looking to increase strategy. If it's too challenging, you could always drop the 2QB format or use only one flex. Personally, I'd love to be in this league competing against my fellow peers. The best strategy and decision-making wins.
Jason Wood: Blind bidding waivers is a must. I can't tell you how many times in local leagues I've seen guys who never heard of a player like Jordan Todman acquire them in free agency because they clicked on one link on the league host site for "Hot Free Agents" that week. It's maddening. By having to bid on players, it raises the level of strategy considerably. I'm also a fan of expanding or augmenting the scoring and lineup decisions. We added a second flex to our internal staff leagues this year and it creates more strategy. You can be weak at RB yet find yourself starting two stud tight ends and four wideouts and winning easily. I also encourage deeper rosters that force players to preemptively add players. In our staff leagues, someone like Jordan Todman would've been on a roster for weeks before he ever got a shot.
2014 Mock Draft
Let's head into the offseason with the first round of a mock draft for a 2014 redraft league. Standard FBG (non-PPR) scoring, start one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one PK, one TD.
Adam Harstad: 1.01—Jamaal Charles
I've been a big Jamaal Charles fan for years, and have owned him all over the place this year. That definitely served me well. As depleted as the RB pool is currently, owning a top-3 back is basically a cheat code, and Charles is one of two running backs that's a legitimate threat to lead the league in rushing yards, receiving yards, and total touchdowns in 2014.
Will Grant: 1.02—LeSean McCoy
With Charles off the board, the natural selection is to take LeSean McCoy as the number two guy. Still the workhorse back in Philadelphia, McCoy continues to post solid numbers both running the ball and catching it out of the backfield. By the time the regular season ends, he'll have over 350 touches, more than 2000 yards from scrimmage and close to 10 touchdowns. You can't ask for much more than that from your first round pick.
Chad Parsons: 1.03—Calvin Johnson
Either of Charles of McCoy would have been the pick here if they fell. While Adrian Peterson is probably the 'chalk' pick in the top-3, I would rather bank on a receiver in his later 20s than a running back that will be 29 years old in 2014, even if it is the immortal Peterson. Johnson in a league that can start four receivers is money in the bank.
Kyle Wachtel: 1.04—Adrian Peterson
Chad mentioned him already and I'd be more than happy to go chalk with Peterson at 1.04, who will be 29 years old at the start of the 2014-15 NFL season. Over the past six seasons, his final rank among running backs in total fantasy points were as follows: 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, eighth and first. He played only 12 games in the year he finished eighth and currently ranks sixth this season. It's hard to find more consistency than that.
Additionally, if you exclude the Week 14 game in which Peterson left with a foot sprain after just seven carries, he averaged 16.44 fantasy points per game this year. Outside of Jamaal Charles' gaudy 20.54 FPPGs, Peterson's average would have been right on par with the other two players already drafted: LeSean McCoy and Calvin Johnson averaged 16.50 and 16.68 FPPGs respectively.
Stephen Holloway: 1.05—Jimmy Graham
Graham is the undisputed leader among tight ends. After 14 games, in 1.5 PPR for tight end leagues, he is ahead of all tight ends not named Gronkowski by over five ppg. He is averaging 5.4 catches, 76 yards and one TD per game. HIs 14 touchdowns are already second all-time for a tight end in a season and he could match the record of 17 set by Gronkowski in 2011. If he adds two more games with his current average yards per game, this season will rank seventh all time for receiving yards in a season. I strongly suspect that the Saints will take steps to improve their pass protection before 2014 and that could benefit Graham, who is Drew Brees' favorite target already.
Andy Hicks: 1.6—Matt Forte
Forte continues to be one of the most consistent backs in the league and under the new offense is finally seeing his full potential. He'll be posting career highs in rushing yards, receiving yards and receptions and go very close to his touchdown record and yards per carry record.
In 2014, the offense will continue to have the best WR tandem in the league in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey and the team has shown that be it Jay Cutler or Josh McCown under center, this offense can fire. If the defense gets fixed in the off season then Forte will be even more valuable.
Heath Cummings: 1.07—Doug Martin
Martin is my early pick for the 2014 comeback player of the year. Both Mike James and Bobby Rainey have had success in his absence but there's no question that this is Martin's job when he returns. His ability to score touchdowns and catch passes makes him the most well-rounded back available, and assuming that Greg Schiano is still the head coach we should expect him to see a heavy workload. He's a top five back in every Footballguys staff member's dynasty rankings and should be in 2014 redraft leagues as well.
Matt Waldman: 1.08—Josh Gordon
Tough call. I'd seriously consider Marshawn Lynch here. He has nearly 1400 combined yards and 13 total touchdowns this year and half the offensive line was missing for much of the season. If Percy Harvin returns to form, Lynch could earn more red zone looks as well as fewer stacked boxes. While the stat-heads will tell you his ypc dropped to 4.2 (which it was two seasons ago before it rose to 5.0 last year) and he's turning 27 with a pretty high workload and nagging injuries he's played through, what leaves me pause about Lynch's 2014 prospects is the DUI case that should be heard during the off season and could result in a suspension.
It leaves me to choose between Demaryius Thomas and Josh Gordon. Thomas is the safer choice because he likely has Manning for another year, which should guarantee him top-10 production at the position. It's also hard to ignore double-digit touchdown potential.
However, I can't pass up Gordon if his ADP is a late first. It might not because of the QB situation and I'll be happy to wait on him as my second or third round pick if all the regression to the mean folks depress his August value. I'll assume for this exercise that Gordon's ADP is a late first. Considering he missed two games and still has nearly 1500 yards while performing with three quarterbacks most teams wouldn't consider a good starter, it's hard to ignore that Gordon is just getting started. I have a difficult time believe Gordon will repeat a 19.8 yards per reception average next year, but I'd rather shoot for upside with this spot, knowing I'll get another awesome receiver with my second pick.
Running backs can wait.
Maurile Tremblay: 1.09—Demaryius Thomas
Talent and situation: he's got both. With Peyton Manning at quarterback again, there will be plenty of passing yards and touchdowns ripe for the taking in Denver in 2014, and Demaryius Thomas is the team's most explosive receiver. He's got the combination of strength and speed to make big plays in a variety of situations, whether taking a screen pass to the house or winning a jump ball down the field. Eric Decker will be a free agent, so the Broncos' receiving corps might become a bit less crowded. Either way, Thomas is a major threat to get 1300+ yards and 10+ touchdowns if he stays healthy.
Jeff Haseley: 1.10—Peyton Manning
It's possible that Peyton Manning could decide to retire if he wins the Super Bowl this year, but that would also mean he finishes behind Brett Favre in career touchdown passes and yards. He's about one and a half seasons away from leading in both categories. Peyton is a student and fan of the game. I'm sure he would like to have the distinction of finishing his career as the league's most productive quarterback. To me, that says he'll play at least another two years. He has a great compliment of receivers in Denver with only Eric Decker a concern as a potential free agent loss. He may not reach 50 touchdowns again in his career, but 35-40 should be a given on a potent Denver offense. Many teams that won the championship in their fantasy leagues this year had Peyton Manning at quarterback. Simply put, he's better than any other quarterback and he's consistent. To take Manning at 1.10 ensures you have a consistent point-producing piece of your championship puzzle at the position that requires the most consistency and production. Manning and potentially Drew Brees are the only quarterbacks I would choose this early. Manning is the only one I would pull the trigger on in the first round.
Mark Wimer: 1.11—Marshawn Lynch
Though he has a pending DUI case to settle, Lynch is a stud performer for the Seahawks and should continue to dominate in carries and red-zone opportunities. Outside of Jamaal Charles, Lynch is the sort of featured back who can win a league for his owners in non-PPR scoring paradigms.
That wraps up the Roundtable for this season. Enjoy the NFL playoffs, and we'll see you back here next season!