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This week we discuss the following:
- Zac Stacy, Eddie Lacy, rookie wall?
- NFL team with strongest group of receivers?
- Alex Smith vs. Andrew Luck?
- Will Seahawks rest players?
- C.J. Spiller
- Dynasty Tight Ends
- Call your shot!
Zac Stacy, Eddie Lacy, rookie wall?
Are Zac Stacy and Eddie Lacy hitting the rookie wall?
Adam Harstad: I tend to be skeptical of the entire concept of a "rookie wall." Maybe it's true that some rookie wear down late in the season, but for the most part, I think any players that start strong are likely to finish weaker, just because most strong starts are a result of things lining up just right for a player. Players have good games and bad games. If a lot of those good games come very early for a player, then when the bad games start showing up, it looks like they're regressing... when in reality, it's just normal variance. And Stacy and Lacy aren't even coming off of back-to-back bad games. Both had strong games two weeks ago.
Andy Hicks: Zac Stacy just played the 49ers and averaged a fraction under four yards a carry. The week before he averaged over seven yards a carry against the Bears. If that's a rookie wall, then every back in the NFL has hit a wall at some stage this season. Stacy has been carrying an ankle injury and had a concussion, but he looked as good as he has all season against San Francisco.
Eddie Lacy brings a better argument about a rookie wall, having performed below his early-season form in three of the last four games. Obviously factoring in the absence of Aaron Rodgers and the struggles of his numerous replacements mean that opposing defenses have been able to focus predominantly on the running game of Green Bay. Lacy has been heavily used by the Packers with seven of his 11 appearances resulting in at least 22 carries. I wouldn't write Lacy off though, as Rodgers could be back this weekend and if not in weeks 15. Then it's game-back-on for Lacy owners.
Dave Larkin: Adam has a point regarding the so-called 'rookie wall'; sometimes there is a temptation to look for reasons why 'Player X' suddenly took a downturn in form or production, but often variance or matchup is the reason. The absence of Aaron Rodgers has affected the looks Lacy is getting, with teams daring Matt Flynn and Scott Tolzien to beat them. It is more a lack of proper opportunity to establish a rhythm (as we saw Green Bay try hopelessly in the Thanksgiving rout in the Motor City) that is derailing Lacy's early season momentum. Zac Stacy has produced against good matchups and to his credit, he looked very solid against a stubborn Niners front seven last week. Having only been given a heavy workload from Week seven onwards, I see no reason why Stacy would hit a rookie wall.
Jason Wood: I don't think they're hitting a wall. Neither had the early workload to suggest they are no somehow overworked. Lacy is falling prey to the collapse of the Packers passing attack. Very few running backs will flourish behind a subpar offensive line with no threat of a passing attack. Stacy had the concussion worry but I see no reason to think, provided he's fully cleared of that, he won't continue to deliver. The Rams have quietly righted the ship after all appeared lost following Bradford's season-ending injury.
James Brimacombe: The problem with both of these RBs is that they have lost their starting QBs and teams are just putting extra defenders dedicated to stopping the run. They are both very talented and can handle a full workload, but unless the offense can mix in some downfield throws, they are going to have a tougher time finding space and holes to make the big plays. At this point they are being forced to work twice as hard for every yard that they gain.
Matt Waldman: They're not hitting a rookie wall. In Lacy's case, he's lost the "invisible wall" otherwise known as Aaron Rodgers, who acts as a barrier for that eighth and ninth defender on run-focused defenses. Lacy has also lost his actual "human wall" of starters to injury last week. He's still playing well, but not producing well. This is something savvy fantasy owners understand the difference between and can understand the changes they need to monitor to exploit when Lacy's good play will translate to good production again.
If Stacy has hit a rookie wall, he lowered the pads, knocked it upright, stiff-armed it to the ground, and trampled over its chest. The wall he's hit is at the intersection of Willis and Bowman Avenue and that's a tough thoroughfare to navigate for any running back. Better days ahead for Stacy and Andy explains the "why you shouldn't be concerned" well.
Andrew Garda: I agree with everyone pointing to the lack of a starting quarterback for both guys. Stacy has also been a bit banged up and seen his carries decrease a little. Lacy is also dealing with some terrible line blocking at times—he gets hit a ton at the line and he just lacks experience when it comes to finding a solution to that. He sees a ton of stacked fronts too—there are times I've counted eight and nine man fronts—and I think it will be worse with Flynn in there. I know people felt Tolzien was ineffective towards the end but Flynn was a disaster last weekend. Both may have their ups and downs but it's about the cast around them, not them.
Mark Wimer: Mark Wimer: No, they are not. Lacy had a bad game last week because of Matt Flynn's struggles (and because the Lions' D has become a shut-down defensive front against opposing rushers). Stacy didn't play enough early in the season to hit the "wall" - he should be fine in the final 1/4 of the season in my opinion.
NFL team with strongest group of receivers?
Which NFL team has the strongest group of receivers?
Adam Harstad: If the Packers' and Falcons' groups were both healthy, it'd be an interesting argument between the two of them... for who was the second best receiving corps in the league behind the Denver Broncos. Especially if we're counting tight ends as part of the receiving corps, Eric Decker could easily be the first option for some teams right now, but in Denver, he's probably fourth in line. That's scary depth. How do you defend that? I'm pretty sure there's not a team in the league whose fourth defensive back is as good as Denver's fourth receiver.
Cincinnati's also a sneaky-good group. A.J. Green is a superstar, and Gresham, Eifert, Sanu, and Jones are all solid pass catchers in their own right. Plus Bernard is a weapon in the passing game. It's almost a shame that group is wasted on Andy Dalton instead of, say, Cam Newton.
Andy Hicks: As Adam mentioned, you cannot go past Denver. A genuine top tier WR1 in Demaryius Thomas and two borderline WR1 receivers in Eric Decker and Wes Welker and a top four Tight End in Julius Thomas. It would be a great experiment to put Peyton Manning on all 32 NFL teams and see how they would all compare.
Adam mention Cincinnati as a good group, but a lot of them are not at full potential yet. Atlanta looks better with Harry Douglas firing, but with Tony Gonzalez retiring at years end and Julio Jones coming off injury it remains to see if this unit can have a great 2014. Outside Denver the only other team with two WR1's is Chicago, but outside Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey there is nobody of note. Martellus Bennett is an average Tight End. The Giants have a good core group with Nicks, Cruz and Reuben Randle, but they have underperformed this year and it will be the last year all three are together. A lot of good young receiving groups are hampered by quarterback play or inexperience. Buffalo and Tennessee come to mind here.
Dave Larkin: Good call by Adam on Cincinnati; that's a very solid group. I'm partial to the Bears' receiving corps. The addition of Martellus Bennett has added a legitimate seam threat, while Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are difficult to defend on the perimeter. The threat of Matt Forte from the backfield as a pass catcher puts the icing on the cake. Of course that's a personal favorite of mine; it's hard to look past the Broncos' receiving corps. The talent and depth there is almost unfair.
Jason Wood: As Adam said, it's hard to make a credible case against Denver. Not only do you have the three wide receivers (Welker, Thomas, and Decker) but you've got an emerging tight end in Julius Thomas. All four are matchup nightmares. If we're talking about second place, a healthy Packers receiving corps is something to behold. Rather than calling attention to Cincinnati as Adam did, I'll throw a nomination out there for the Bears. Alshon Jeffrey has emerged as one of the top two or three young talents and Brandon Marshall remains in his prime.
James Brimacombe: Obviously the Broncos are over loaded with talent at the WR position right now and having a QB like Peyton Manning also gives them a huge advantage. The Bears duo of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery look to have a developed a solid chemistry with whoever QB is throwing them the ball.
Matt Waldman: If judging strictly starters then it's Denver by nose over Calvin Johnson by himself or Josh Gordon by himself (kidding, unless Gordon is a one man gang once again this weekend and then we need to revisit). While I love the Bears duo of outside receivers and I believe Marquess Wilson is a good prospect to watch, Denver's quartet of Decker, Thomas, Thomas, and Welker provide everything you want as a quarterback: seam stretchers, runners after the catch, route technicians, and big play threats. They also work well together on rub routes and screens. Each receiver on Denver's roster does something "best" among the group, but there is enough overlap in skills to keep defenses off-balance.
I appreciate Adam's mention of Cincinnati. I think with a different quarterback (and coordinator) this unit has the talent to offer variety as difficult as the Broncos, but with more finesse outside and strength whereas Denver has the opposite dynamic. Give this crew to Manning and I think there wouldn't be much drop-off.
I still have to give the Packers the edge over the Bengals. Jordy Nelson is Michael Irvin with more speed and less swag. Randall Cobb has a chance to be Hines Ward with speed and when Jermichael Finley got his head on straight, he looked like the player we've expected. James Jones is that Eric Decker-like player with skills-overlap between Nelson and Cobb. Excellent crew.
Adam Harstad: I see there's a lot of love for the Bears' receivers. Marshall and Jeffery certainly are one of the most fearsome duos in the league, but after that, there's a whole lot of nothing. Martellus Bennett is a fine tight end, but all other Bears receivers combined have 193 yards at 7.7 yards per reception. That's... not good.
If we want to praise some good duos, we might as well send a bit to the Arizona Cardinals' tag team of Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, too.
Andrew Garda: Healthy, I think the Packers have the deepest group of wide receivers out there. That may change next year as they have no replacement for Jermichael Finley at tight end, but Nelson, Jones and Cobb are on par with anyone out there. That includes Denver. Now, if we need healthy receivers—it's clearly Denver for all the reasons mentioned. Nobody has the depth they have in Colorado right now especially when Julius Thomas is healthy. I also echo the Bears but as Adam mentioned, past Jeffery/Marshall (one of the best duos in the NFL) who do they have? Nobody. As far as pairs go, DeAndre Hopkins/Andre Johnson could developed into something special as well.
Mark Wimer: If I were a defensive coordinator, I would hate to face the Broncos. They have great starters, and very respectable backups across the board. When Peyton Manning identifies a favorable matchup in the opposing team's coverage scheme, he exploits it to the max, as we saw with Eric Decker last week.
Alex Smith vs. Andrew Luck?
Who would you rather have in your lineup during the fantasy playoffs, Alex Smith or Andrew Luck?
Adam Harstad: Andrew Luck. I've been surprised at how well he's kept it up so far, but I'd be very nervous about relying on Alex Smith when so much of his value is built on rushing production that is so far outside of his historical norms. Smith has already more than doubled his previous career-best rushing yardage total. With more typical production, he'd fall all the way from QB9 to QB15. It's possible this is just the new normal for him, but I remain skeptical.
Andy Hicks: Alex Smith has Washington and Oakland away and the Indianapolis at home. Andrew Luck has Cincinnati away, Houston at home and then Kansas City away. On pure schedule, Alex Smith has the easier ride, but as Adam mentioned if the Chiefs get back on track, Smith will be handing the ball off for a lot of the game.
His habit of posting 15 points or less is a concern, especially when Luck has a much higher floor per game. Luck also has a higher ceiling on any given game and therefore should be played ahead of Smith. I am concerned about Luck's rough sophomore season, but he'll get to gain further playoff experience this year and be much better in future years.
Dave Larkin: I think Luck would just shade it, but only because of my lack of faith in Alex Smith. The Chiefs have been forced out of their comfort zone in recent weeks by opponents who have challenged them defensively, forcing Smith and Reid to open things up. Looking strictly at this week, I can't see Smith's hand being forced by a hapless Washington team.
Jason Wood: I'm assuming "Neither" isn't an option? Like many Luck owners, I'm looking for alternatives and playing matchups lately, but I still don't think I would have the conviction to play Smith over Luck if that was my only alternative. I worry about the Chiefs right now. Sure they're 9-3 but they've lost three in a row and the defensive injuries have turned a major asset into a liability in the last month. Smith can't succeed when he's asked to be in shoot-outs. Plus, if we're giving Smith credit for his rushing numbers, let's not forget that Luck has been a consistent goal line rushing threat, as well.
James Brimacombe: Right now I would rather have the experience of Alex Smith leading my team in the playoffs but with a couple of more years under his belt Andrew Luck is going to be a force.
Matt Waldman: Dexter McCluster and Dwayne Bowe are quietly doing more and I like the schedule better. They also can run the ball better, which helps Smith—especially in the red zone.
Andrew Garda: Luck has the higher upside, Smith has a much better playoff schedule (though Luck against Houston should be tasty). Ultimately, I actually think Smith as he is hotter and has a better chance of being hot during the fantasy playoffs.
Mark Wimer: Alex Smith. He's now comfortable in the Chiefs' scheme, and his receivers are relatively healthy, though Anthony Fasano is dealing with a concussion this week. Luck has T.Y. Hilton and Coby Fleener as his top threats, while Smith has Dwyane Bowe, Jamaal Charles. an emerging Dexter McCluster (who is making tough catches and diving for balls that shouldn't be catchable; he's a big effort guy this year) and then Sean McGrath is a capable replacement for Fasano. I think Smith has more knives in his drawer at this point, and the Chiefs are unleashing him as a passer as we enter December.
Will Seahawks rest players?
Should Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson owners worry that the Seahawks may rest their starters in the last couple games of the regular season?
Andy Hicks: No. Perhaps. Maybe. They have to play San Francisco away and a loss there will scotch any idea of Seattle resting players earlier than week 17, especially if Carolina beats New Orleans this week as well. If however Seattle beats the 49ers or New Orleans beats Carolina then the Seahawks will be able to whatever they want in weeks 16 and 17 leading into the playoffs. It doesn't strike me as a Pete Carroll move to not crush divisional rivals Arizona and St. Louis in the last two weeks of the season, though. Both games are in Seattle and they have that wonderful home record to protect.
Jason Wood: Not unless they're in an ESPN league that requires a Week 17 championship. I think very few coaches are advocates of sitting their stars, and I can't think of any that would opt for that beyond the final week of the season. This 'sitting out' fear is one of the most overstated issues year in, year out come fantasy playoff time.
James Brimacombe: No. They are going to keep playing throughout the fantasy playoffs (at least through week 16); no need to over-think things.
Matt Waldman: Not enough to sit them. You might not earn those gravy points in the fourth quarter, but you'll get the main course and it should be filling.
Andrew Garda: No, not unless you have a Week 17 championship. And Pete Carroll doesn't strike me as a guy who likes to rest his starters. He knows momentum is vital going into the playoffs.
Mark Wimer: It depends on how soon they lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They do have divisional games in three of the next four weeks, and the Cardinals and the 49ers are legitimate threats to beat Seattle, so unless your fantasy league has championship week in the final (Week 17) week of the year, I think you should be good to go with your Seahawks.
C.J. Spiller
Is C.J. Spiller a must-start from here on out?
Adam Harstad: Nobody's a must-start, but I suspect few fantasy teams are going to have 2-3 better options available every week going forward.
Andy Hicks: C.J Spiller owners have a poor return on their investment this year, but Spiller was a first-round pick for most people and if those owners are fortunate enough to be in the fantasy playoffs, they'll have to start him. If he gets hot he will post big stats.
Dave Larkin: The variance in his numbers can be maddening, but it's hard to find many more backs who have the ceiling he has in any given week.
Jason Wood: He's absolutely not a must-start. He's been too inconsistent, and chances are if you've made the playoffs in spite of owning Spiller, it's because you found other running backs to produce for you. Now if you're asking whether I think Spiller could end the season on a strong footing? Yes, I do. I'm going to take last week's effort as evidence that he's finally healthy, and I also think Manuel's presence makes the entire engine move smoothly.
James Brimacombe: It was only one game so far that we have seen the 2012 version of C.J. Spiller. If he can duplicate that type of a performance against Tampa Bay's defense he has to be considered a must-start then.
Matt Waldman: Atlanta's not a good barometer for running back outlooks, so you have to factor that into the analysis based on last week. However, you also have to factor in Spiller playing through this high ankle sprain with a dose of serious toughness. He's not a must-start, but he's a boom-or-bust RB2 on the bottom range of the RB2 tier. He's close to a must-start, but give me a back with a strong matchup and good shot at a strong workload and I'll give that runner the edge over the injured Spiller and Fred Jackson looming.
Andrew Garda: Like Matt, I don't trust the Falcons to be a barometer of future success. I like that he's running tough through an injury and I like that he had a big game, but the two previous games were duds, so while you can start him, it's better as a low-end RB2 or a solid RB3. Anything else is gravy.
Mark Wimer: Yes, I think he is. Both he and Fred Jackson get enough opportunities to put up at a minim RB #2 type numbers, and both have RB #1 upside. The ankle injury Spiller is fighting through seems to be more of a pain-management issue than a serious structural problem. He'll be good on game days, I think.
Dynasty Tight Ends
After Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski (in whatever order), who are your next five dynasty tight ends?
Adam Harstad: I think the next four after Gronkowski and Graham are Jordan Reed, Julius Thomas, Jordan Cameron, and Tyler Eifert, in one order or another. I've had those four as my #3-6 guys since October, though the order has changed several times. In a vacuum, I'd probably rank them Cameron > Reed > Thomas > Eifert, but they're all extremely close and I could see the rest of my roster influencing that order (for example, upgrading Thomas on a team competing for a title this year, upgrading Eifert and Reed on a truly terrible team that will need several years to rebuild).
While I think TE3 and TE6 are relatively interchangeable right now, I think there's a pretty big drop-off between TE6 and TE7. At that point, the best options left are either old (Vernon Davis, Jason Witten), mediocre talents (Kyle Rudolph, Coby Fleener), or some combination of the two (Dennis Pitta, Greg Olsen). I'm going to cheat and give two names for that last spot, because which I prefer is going to depend pretty heavily on how competitive my team is right now. If I have a team that's built to compete for championships immediately, I'd take Vernon Davis, who is arguably the most talented TE in the league outside of Gronk and Graham, but who is older and has a spotty track record. If I have a team that's middle of the pack or building for next year, I'd prefer Ladarius Green, who has one of the highest ceilings in football, but who also is a risk to never realize that potential.
So, to summarize... for a rebuilding team, I'd rank them Reed, Cameron, Eifert, Thomas, Green. For a contending team, I'd rank them Cameron, Reed, Thomas, Eifert, Davis. And in truth, the number seven dynasty TE might not be in the league yet, depending on what happens with Jace Amaro and Eric Ebron in the NFL draft.
Jason Wood: I wish I could argue with Adam but I tend to agree with most of his list. I personally wouldn't downgrade the 'old guys' all that much as Witten and Davis are the kind of veterans you can get cheaply in dynasty formats. Realistically placing much value in any player beyond a three year window is empirically foolhardy, so as long as I think a veteran can be productive for two of those three years, I won't discount them too much. I would still rather have both Davis and Witten over Jordan Cameron, who has completely disappeared.
My rankings:
1) Jimmy Graham
2) Rob Gronkowski
3) Vernon Davis
4) Julius Thomas
5) Jordan Reed
6) Jason Witten
7) Jordan Cameron
James Brimacombe: My rankings are pretty similar to Jason's, differing in just a few spots:
1) Jimmy Graham
2) Rob Gronkowski
3) Jordan Cameron
4) Vernon Davis
5) Julius Thomas
6) Jordan Reed
7) Jason Witten
In dynasty, the things to always have on your mind on are: who is going to be the quarterback for that team, and how is that is going to affect that player's long-term development? Sure, Cameron doesn't have the QB right now that is going to put him in the elite tier with the top two TEs, but he does have the skill set and has shown earlier this year that he can have a huge fantasy outburst and be a reliable fantasy starter each week. It is hard to ignore Vernon Davis and Jason Witten at this point even though they are getting older they still are staying healthy and are contributing in high-powered offenses led by elite quarterbacks. Julius Thomas has burst onto the scene this year but I still think his production has more to do with Peyton Manning under center. Three years down the road I am not sure if Julius Thomas will have the fantasy production to equal Jordan Cameron's. Jordan Reed looks to have some real chemistry with Robert Griffin and sees plenty of targets each game he is on the field.
As far as fellow rookie TEs I have to believe Zach Ertz needs to be considered in the top ten and maybe even a head of Tyler Eifert. The Eagles have brought Ertz along slowly this year but are starting to trust him more and are feeding him the ball more often. He could be on the verge of a big breakout offensively in the next couple of years and even more so when the Eagles part ways with Brent Celek.
Andy Hicks: In my experience, dynasty owners overvalue potential and undervalue current production.
My dynasty list wouldn't look too much different to my current 2014 rankings for redraft.
My top seven would be:
1) Rob Gronkowski
2) Jimmy Graham
3) Julius Thomas
4) Vernon Davis
5) Jordan Cameron
6) Jordan Reed
7) Charles Clay
Rounding out my top 12 would be Greg Olsen, Coby Fleener, Garrett Graham, Zach Ertz and either Justin Witten or Tyler Eifert
James mentioned that for any of these guys you need to know the quarterback situation. Offensive philosophy also comes into play. Gronkowski, Graham, Thomas and Davis all have that people in place right now that are almost certain to be there next year and are a clear top four for me. Greg Olsen, Coby Fleener, Zach Ertz and Tyler Eifert should remain in stable environments as well. We don't know the QB situations of Cameron or Graham next year. We don't know what offensive scheme will be in place for Reed, Clay, Graham or Witten.
Charles Clay, Jordan Reed and Garrett Graham could have their futures enhanced or destroyed depending on what moves are made at their respective clubs next year. At least Clay and Reed have up-and-coming quarterbacks who will be starting in 2014. They have built up a rapport and it will only get better unless a new coaching scheme destroys that.
Matt Waldman: My top seven are:
1) Rob Gronkowski
2) Jimmy Graham
3) Vernon Davis
4) Julius Thomas
5) Jason Witten
6) Greg Olsen
7) Ladarius Green
Speaking purely in football terms, Davis could equal or exceed what Gronkowski and Graham do in their respective offenses if paired with Brees or Brady in those offenses. He might be the biggest waste of career fantasy talent at the tight end position this decade. If there was a World Sports Court to prosecute individuals for "crimes against fantasy", I'd have a warrant issued for Mike Martz for his oppression of Vernon Davis.
I have Julius Thomas this high with some reservation because Peyton Manning makes Thomas' job far easier than it might be once the Broncos quarterback retires and who thinks Manning will be playing in 2016? I'm not so sure.
Witten stays on this list as a year-to-year option. This year, he was still mighty fine so I'm not removing him for some young guy with part of a good season but couldn't make it work with a veteran backup—say, Jordan Cameron.
Greg Olsen is only 28, he's a fine player capable of stretching the seam and moving around the formation, and Cam Newton is only getting better. Newton's improvement has also meant that since Week eight Olsen is the No.3 fantasy tight end during this stretch. I expect Newton to continue to play at this level for the next foreseeable phase of his career, which means Olsen is a beneficiary.
If you're seeking a tight end to emerge from the shadows next year, it's Travis Kelce if the knee surgery is successful. He's the best tight end in the 2013 class. I know folks think it's Eifert, and he's a nice player. However, Kelce has everything you want to become a stud in KC's offense. Since he missed his rookie season, I'll give the nod to Ladarius Green. I'm still waiting to see him make plays in tight coverage that could vault him into the upper tier, but his speed and size, quarterback, and coach are all good fits for him to thrive for fantasy owners even if he doesn't having me drooling over his all-around skills just yet.
Andrew Garda: My list is very similar to everyone else's in that it's a mix of old and new.
1) Jimmy Graham
2) Rob Gronkowski
3) Vernon Davis
4) Jordan Reed
5) Jason Witten
6) Jordan Cameron
7) Tyler Eifert
I think the step down from Graham to Gronk from a dynasty standpoint is the injury concerns. Sure, Graham has been hurt but the impact of it was minimal, while Gronk is seems to get hit harder and I don't think we've seen the last of him missing significant time. Mind you, I won't turn my nose up at him in a startup draft.
I think lowering Vernon Davis too much is a dangerous gambit—he still has a lot of tread on his tires and his biggest problem this season has been the offense around him. Hopefully Reed will stay healthy next year but his potential is huge as is Cameron's—a guy I believe has really suffered because of the chaos at quarterback in Cleveland. I wish Witten saw the end zone more and I don't suppose it will improve anytime soon with all the weapons on offense.
I flip-flopped between Eifert and Greg Olson. Olson gets more use from Cam Newton, but Eifert is a fantastic weapon for Andy Dalton and the Bengals—I think he role explodes over the next couple of years.
Mark Wimer: I'm with Adam on Jordan Cameron, Jordan Reed and Julius Thomas, but I think that Eifert is downgraded due to the presence of Jermaine Gresham, who has risen to the challenge of Eifert being drafted. There is now sort of a 1A and 1B arrangement between Eifert and Gresham in Cincinnati. The young talent I'd replace Eifert with is Mychal Rivera, who has had some nice games for Oakland and is likely to become the security blanket for either Terrelle Pryor or Matt McGloin, however that QB battle plays out during 2014.
Greg Olsen and Vernon Davis are both worthy of being held in Dynasty leagues as they both have several more productive years ahead, in my opinion, and I also like Martellus Bennett to do well for a couple more years in Chicago.
Call your shot!
Name a player that you think will outperform most people's expectations this week.
Dave Larkin: Roddy White is generally being ranked around 24th or 25th among wide receivers this week, but I believe he could out-produce that and be a top 10-12 option. Green Bay's defense was putrid last week, allowing yards for fun against Detroit and displaying how poor a tackling team they are on many occasions. White was targeted a season-high 14 times against Buffalo and, while the game script lent itself to plenty of catches, he looked a lot more like himself after a long-term injury. The Falcons, despite all their woes on both lines, could pull this game out and White can play a big part.
Jason Wood: I love Shane Vereen and Frank Gore this week. Both rate as low-end RB2s in most rankings this week, but I see them both as better plays than that. Gore has been quiet the last few weeks but that's been mostly a game plan situation. With the 49ers WR corps getting healthy, I expect the 49ers to have a bit more room to run against Seattle than most believe. While I wouldn't peg Gore for 120 yards on the ground, I can see him delivering 60-80 plus a pair of touchdowns. Throw in a few receptions and the guy is fantasy gold this week. Vereen is an easier story to tell. Ridley is persona non grata and the Browns appear set for an epic collapse to my mind. I see Vereen being a PPR stud this week and, frankly, for the rest of the year.
James Brimacombe: I am going to stick with the Broncos high-powered offense and take a shot with Wes Welker to have a big fantasy game. He currently is sitting in the WR2-WR3 ranking as he has yet to show consistency this year. The thing about the Broncos is that they score a lot of points and can do it with a variety of weapons. Last week Eric Decker had a monster game and in the past Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas have both seen very productive fantasy days. As defenses try to contain one or two of those players, Peyton Manning is just going to look the other way and find the open man. I am taking a shot at Wes Welker to put up WR1 type of numbers this week.
Andy Hicks: I really like LeGarrette Blount this week. Stevan Ridley isn't being trusted with his repeated fumbles. Shane Vereen is going to be primarily used as a receiver. And the Patriots are facing a Cleveland Browns team that has had truly terrible luck at quarterback recently. This looks like a blowout for New England, and while the Browns have a solid run defense, New England will be keen to get this one over with quickly and run the ball into the ground. Blount should be good for at least 15 carries and one or two touchdowns.
Matt Waldman: Bobby Rainey versus the Bills. Rainey was a great success against Atlanta and then a fantasy flop the past two weeks. However, it wasn't a Rainey problem as much as it has strong defensive line play. The Bills were playing solid run defense early in the season, but over the past 3-5 weeks they've become more and more generous to opposing RBs. If you couldn't unload Rainey or someone dropped him because the schedule isn't favorable for the playoffs overall, I'd take a shot on him as a one-week rental against the Bills.
Andrew Garda: I'll fill in the QB spot with Carson Palmer. He wasn't all that trustworthy for most of the season, and his next two games (against Tennessee and Seattle, both away games) are brutal, but this week he's going to outperform his ranking. He's thrown for over 300 yards each of the last three weeks and has thrown at least two touchdowns in six out of his last seven games. The Rams won't be easy—they can get after a quarterback—but if the line can give him just a little time he'll be able to get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd.
If you're looking for a quarterback who might blow a matchup to pieces, I really think Palmer is your guy this week.
Mark Wimer: I agree with Jason that Shane Vereen is a great play in PPR leagues this week. He does have a tough rushing matchup against the Browns, but this should only enhance his role as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. He should easily surpass last week's six targets, and he put up 5/37/1 in those chances during Week 13. I'm starting him on the teams that I hold him this week.
That will do it for this edition of the Footballguys Roundtable. Please join us again next week.