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This week we discuss the following:
Better Week One Starts?
Whom are you more comfortable starting in week one?
BenJarvus Green-Ellis or Giovani Bernard?
Heath Cummings: In Cincinnati it depends on what type of league you're in. In a PPR league I'd take Bernard in week one, in a standard scoring league I'd take Green-Ellis. green-Ellis has been severely undervalued in my opinion, he's still going to get the short yardage work, the touchdowns, and a large chunk of the first and second down work.
Andy Hicks: BenJarvus Green-Ellis for the first week. The Bengals have a tough game in week one in Chicago and I believe they'll be cautious and not throw the rookie into a difficult assignment
Jason Wood: I would start Bernard in PPR leagues, and hope I didn't have to start either in standard leagues. While I can definitely see Green-Ellis having a lot more value than we're giving him credit for, to me Bernard has the talent such that it's just a matter of when, not if he becomes the primary ball-carrier.
Ryan Hester: In PPR leagues, I'd choose Bernard. In Standard, it's Green-Ellis.
Ronnie Hillman or Montee Ball?
Heath Cummings: I'm staying away from Montee Ball, but I'm not real excited about Hillman. This is going to be a true RBBC and choosing one for week one is just guessing on who is going to have the hot hand. My guess is that Hillman ends up with more touches in week one, so I'd go with him.
Andy Hicks: Can I say Knowshon Moreno? Odds are that one of Ball or Hillman will be the productive back this week. But if Moreno plays and gets any carries, then he'll get a few. Against the defending Super Bowl champs is not a time to throw inexperienced players into the mix unless they are fully prepared and ready. Maybe they are, maybe they aren't. If Moreno is active, I'd go with him first, then Hillman as he is likely to get receptions at a minimum.
Adam Harstad: I'd have to disagree on Moreno. If I were to guess how Denver's RB situation will play out in week one, I'd expect Hillman and Ball to rotate series, with Moreno getting occasional fill-in work and being the primary back in the two-minute offense. My gut instinct is that Denver's ideal might be a 40/40/20 distribution between Hillman, Ball, and Moreno. Unfortunately, I don't have any direct quotes to that effect, but if I'm trying to read the tea leaves, if I'm looking at how they distributed offensive reps during camps and preseason games and listening to how the coaches and players have talked about the situation, I have to believe that Ball and Hillman will both play a much larger role than Moreno.
Deciding between Ball and Hillman is much tougher, and neither is especially exciting to me. Hillman gets first crack at it, so I'd expect him to get (marginally) more touches. Meanwhile, Ball was the NCAA's career leader in touchdowns, so you have to think he has a slightly higher chance of reaching the end zone. I'd probably default to Hillman in PPR or yardage-heavy leagues and Ball in standard non-PPR leagues. Also, if the rest of my team was weak and I needed a bit of a "Hail Mary" (say, if I'd drafted Rob Gronkowski early), I'd probably roll the dice with Montee Ball and pray for a 10 carry, 30 yard, 2 TD kind of day.
Jason Wood: Another duo that I would hope you don't have to choose from in Week One. If I had the choice though, it would be Hillman. Fumbles aside, Hillman got the 1st team reps in practice over the last week and is the better pass blocker. Until Ball proves to the coaches he can protect Manning, I don't see him on the field much.
Ryan Hester: I'd choose Ball here only because he's more likely to get goal line carries, but this backfield is a mess that will likely continue to be a mess.
Arian Foster or Ben Tate? (In other words, what are the odds that Foster's carries will be severely limited?)
Heath Cummings: If I had to choose today, I'd start Foster. Thankfully, if you're choosing between them you'll have until Monday to make that decision and we should have a clearer picture by then. The Texans should handle San Diego easily, so that means the team is more likely to be cautious with Foster's carries, but I still think he'll see more touches than Tate.
Andy Hicks: If Foster is active, you have to play him. He'll get 20 carries, a few receptions and if past experience is a guide, a touchdown or 2. They are playing a week San Diego side and if you think Tate can get anywhere near the production of Foster, then you may even play them both if you have that option. As it stands, resting Foster would be a ridiculous move if he is active.
Jason Wood: Foster is clearly the choice here, although I could see justifying Tate as a flex starter in deeper leagues, too. I think if the Texans could script the game, Foster would get 12-15 touches, help put the game out of hand, and then hand the 2nd half duties off to Tate. Now games rarely go according to script but I still don't see Foster ceding goal line or 3rd down duties and I genuinely believe he's fine given the fact he's been practicing.
Ryan Hester: This is Foster for me. I don't see him being as limited as many are saying. His preseason injuries were all treated very carefully for rest purposes. Had he been a player of lesser stature, he likely would have played through them and played the preseason games.
Heath Cummings: Jordy Nelson. I don't see any way that Jones' TD rate from 2012 holds up, and that was a lot of his fantasy value. Nelson says he's healthy and I believe it.
Andy Hicks: Similar to Arian Foster, if Jordy Nelson is active you have to play him. James Jones was a TD machine in 2012 and that is normally the least reliable stat to carry forward from year to year.
Jason Wood: Nelson has been cleared to play and I've ranked him much higher than Jones all preseason. Jones has a role, and it could be a substantive one, but the entirety of his fantasy value was due to an obscene TD catch rate that's historically unsustainable. Nelson and Cobb are better players and should see more snaps and targets in MOST weeks. But there will be weeks when Jones ends up outscoring them both.
Ryan Hester: In most cases, I'd take Nelson hands-down, but with Nelson just returning from a knee procedure and Jones being a favorite red zone target of Aaron Rodgers, I'd choose Jones here.
Kenbrell Thompson or Aaron Dobson?
Heath Cummings: Aaron Dobson. I know Thompkins had a great preseason and he's getting all of the hype. Wouldn't it be just like Belichick to have Thompkins put up a goose egg after getting all this hype in the preseason? Really though, I wouldn't be thrilled about starting either one of these receivers, the Patriots are going to run the ball down Buffalo's throat.
Andy Hicks: Good luck figuring out the New England receiver pecking order given the change from 2012. If Gronkowski is injured that would make the 4 leading receivers from 2012 all absent and we won't know what cards Belichick has played and what he has in his pocket. Thompson is the obvious choice to go with, but you are really taking a stab in the dark.
Jason Wood: This is probably the easiest choice of the bunch, it's Tompkins. He's run with the 1s, produced in the preseason games, and was the most impressive receiver throughout the preseason. I could care less about their respective NFL draft pedigrees, and Tom Brady and Bill Belichick don't care either.
Ryan Hester: This one is Thompkins easily. He clearly outplayed Dobson all preseason long.
Heath Cummings: Chris Givens. Givens has a rapport established with Sam Bradford that Austin just hasn't built yet.
Andy Hicks: At home against a tough defense in the Cardinals, both will have their work cut out for them. Given the home run threat of Givens I would have to take him, especially as we don't know what Tavon Austin is capable of at this level yet.
Jason Wood: Another easy choice for me...it's Givens. Givens has been consistent and explosive this preseason, whereas Austin has been a non-factor. That's not to say Austin won't evolve into an electrifying cog in the Rams attack sooner rather than later, but for now I view Givens as someone that has fantasy WR2 upside but he cost you WR4 value whereas Austin was drafted as a WR2 but should produce WR4-5 numbers out of the gates.
Ryan Hester: I like Givens here. He is St. Louis' most valuable fantasy receiver until further notice.
Is Felix Jones or Isaac Redman a decent week one start? Is there any fantasy value in this backfield before LeVeon Bell returns?
Stephen Holloway: I am not bullish on the Steelers' offense overall in 2013, and even less so on their running game. Last year's production was abysmal and the pre-season action has not shown much improvement, particularly with the short-term loss of rookie LeVeon Bell. It appears that Isaac Redman will start in week one, even after missing a lot of the pre-season with his pinched nerve. But the three-way split between Jones, Redman and Stephens-Howling will limit anyone of the three being productive in week one.
Heath Cummings: I didn't really like the Steelers running situation before Bell got hurt. Now, it's absolutely gross. I do think Jones has a really good chance of taking over for Isaac Redman after a couple of weeks, if only because I expect Redman's performance behind this line to be pretty awful. Of course, Jones would have to stay healthy for that to matter, and I'm not sure he'd perform any better than Redman even if he did get a shot.
Andy Hicks: I have to agree with Heath and Stephen. At the moment it is a messy situation and any of Isaac Redman, LaRod Stephens-Howling and Felix Jones could get more than 10 carries or none at all in week one and I wouldn't be surprised.
Ryan Hester: I would hate to start Redman or Jones in week one in any but the deepest of leagues. For me, it would have to be at least a 16-team league, and either would be a questionable flex starter there. Until Bell returns, I see this as being a 60-40 split, one way or the other, between Redman and Jones, with Redman being the goal line runner.
Jason Wood: I agree with my colleagues that the Steelers RB situation is one to AVOID for now. I have absolutely no interest in guessing which middling talent might break a big play or get a TD plunge and have 'value.'
Will LaRod Stephens-Howling have fantasy relevance in PPR leagues as the Steelers' third-down, change-of-pace back?
Heath Cummings: Stephens-Howling will have just enough of an impact early on to degrade the other running backs, but not enough that you'll ever want to consider him as a starter.
Ryan Hester: Stephens-Howling will have some sneaky flex value in PPR formats as the Pittsburgh backfield desperately needs some electricity. He may even get some early-down work after looking rather impressive in the team's first preseason against the Giants (seven carries, 40 yards).
When Bell does return, will that put an end to an ugly RBBC situation, or will it just make it uglier?
Stephen Holloway: I think that the three-way split that is likely for week one will be the continuing script until and even after Bell returns. The only difference is that the least effective running back while Bell misses time will fall further into obscurity when he returns. Bell may garner a slightly higher number of carries, if he returns fully healthy, but it is within the realm of possibility that the leading Steeler rusher in 2013 manages a rushing total of under 700 yards, similar to a year ago when Jonathan Dwyer had the team high with 156 carries for 623 yards.
Heath Cummings: Once Bell comes back (Week 2? Week 6? Who knows?), I do expect the situation will be cleared up. The Steelers drafted him to be an every down back and they'll give him every chance to do so. I thought he was overvalued early in the year because of the Steelers line and Bell's lack of elite ability, but now he may be a bargain. If he is back by week six, and you have two starters that don't have a bye until week seven, Bell could be a steal for anyone who drafted him as a fantasy RB4.
Andy Hicks: Even when LeVeon Bell comes back, you have to question how he'll be able to catch up to the speed of an NFL season given his rookie status and his foot injury. There is a chance someone distinguishes themselves early and often for the Steelers, but I want no part of that on my fantasy squad.
Ryan Hester: Bell was drafted to be this team's bell-cow and was on pace to fulfill that role before being injured mainly due to the lack of other talent at the position. That lack of talent still exists. If Bell can prove that he's healthy and get back to game speed, he'll be given every opportunity to regain the "70" in a 70-30 type of situation.
Jason Wood: I really disagree with the view that LeVeon Bell won't take charge of the Steelers backfield upon his return. He was drafted to be the bell cow, looked every part the bell cow in the preseason, and was even fully competent in pass protection (something many other rookies couldn't say). Now the foot injury scared many off but he's already shed the boot and COULD be back by Week 2. Whenever he's back, I would be 100% comfortable inserting him as my every week flex and quite possibly an every week RB2 if he produces the way I expect him to.
In a start-2-QB league, it pays off big when a lesser-ranked QB plays at or near the level of a fantasy QB1.
How would you evaluate the upside potential of Geno Smith, Terrelle Pryor, Brandon Weeden, Jake Locker, EJ Manuel, and Ryan Tannehill, or anyone else in that range, like Christian Ponder or Blaine Gabbert? Which guys have the best chance of finishing as a top 15-18 fantasy QB this season?
Stephen Holloway: My four highest ranked quarterbacks from that list are Tannehill, Locker, Manuel and Ponder, in that order. Tannehill remains the top consideration of these, but the loss of Dustin Keller was a severe blow. Whereas he would have been the easy choice, now he is only slightly ahead of the other three. I like Tannehill's growth at the quarterback position with very little playing time. He has good athleticism and is capable of extending plays. His success in 2013 will be heavily impacted on the ability of Mike Wallace to perform at a high level.
Jake Locker is another that has good athleticism and the ability to extend plays. Tennessee has a much improved offensive line and their increased production in the running game will be key to Locker's success in the passing game. The return of a healthy Kenny Britt, if he can keep his head straight, is another factor. I expect Locker to improve in 2013, but his upside might be limited by the focus on the ground game.
EJ Manuel is similar to the above two in that while he can run, he seems to prefer to pass the ball. The Bills added multiple receiving weapons in the draft, but their offensive line play is suspect and Manuel is returning from knee surgery and may not start the first week. Steve Johnson has also missed valuable time with a hamstring, so the many young players in Buffalo have not had much time to get comfortable with each other.
Christian Ponder has not played that well in the pre-season, but the potential for improvement is definitely there in Minnesota. The Vikings added the efficient route runner Greg Jennings and Cordarelle Patterson during the off-season and already have the best running back on the planer in Adrian Peterson and a capable tight end in Kyle Rudolph. If Ponder can improve his play, he might have the highest ceiling in the group, but that improved play is still yet to be shown.
Andy Hicks: If we look at the consensus guys ranked 25th to 32nd, they are ranked there for a reason. In leagues that start one QB, the Raiders and Jets positions are up in the air and would normally be best avoided all season. In leagues that start two QBs, however, you cannot think like that. Even Geno Smith and Terrelle Pryor have value, although I think they have the least value of the guys mentioned.
I really don't have a lot of hope for Blaine Gabbert, either. In my opinion it's only a matter of time until Chad Henne is playing, and when he does, he could a decent fantasy QB2.
Christian Ponder may get the hook quickly as well, but at least he has better options to work with this year, and maybe another year of experience makes the difference. I think Ponder has a better chance than Gabbert to turn it around and become a useful quarterback.
E.J Manuel is going to play all season long. That alone makes him worth considering, but the biggest impediment to success this year is that everyone is in the first year of this offense, and guys like Manuel, Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin are in their first year in the NFL. The chances of Manuel finishing in the top 18 are slim.
I think the guys with the greatest chance of offering fantasy value are Weeden, Locker, and Tannehill.
Brandon Weeden has Norv Turner as his offensive coordinator, Trent Richardson as his running back, and a very good line in front of him. If he can get some consistent play from his receivers he could do a lot better than people are expecting. Jordan Cameron, Greg Little and Josh Gordon will ALL have to play better and so will Weeden. I don't know if Weeden is good enough to do it, but he has the opportunity this year. If he stumbles early though we can expect to see Jason Campbell and he is more likely to be in the QB15-18 range
Jake Locker has played well enough to be considered fantasy-relevant in a few games, but has also been injured for many weeks in his first two seasons. This is his crucial year and if he has made progress then he is a good chance to elevate to the top 20 fantasy quarterbacks. The improved offensive line, Chris Johnson at running back, and the fact that the Titans have three recent high draft picks at receiver in Kenny Britt, Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter means that Locker has his fate in his own hands. If you do have Locker in a start-2 QB league, though, rostering Ryan Fitzpatrick would be a wise investment.
The guy most likely to make the move though is Ryan Tannehill. With Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson starring in 2012, Tannehill is the forgotten sophomore quarterback. It was always believed that Tannehill wasn't NFL-ready when he played last year and he still did well. With improvement and with the addition of Mike Wallace, Tannehill is a good bet to land into the top 18 quarterbacks this year. It isn't a certainty with Tannehill and Wallace struggling to get on the same page so far, but if they click, Tannehill becomes a relevant fantasy option very fast.
Dave Larkin: Of all the high-upside QB2s mentioned, Brandon Weeden appeals to me the most. As Andy mentioned, Norv Turner is now at the helm of this offense and should be able to create a balanced attack around Trent Richardson and a solid offensive line to allow Weeden to maximize the strengths in his game, namely his ability to throw the football deep down the field. With his weaponry one year further along, Weeden should come close to the top 15-18 quarterbacks.
Ryan Tannehill is poised for a big jump after a rookie season that was overshadowed by the greatness of Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III III. The addition of Mike Wallace, at least on paper, presents Tannehill with a true number one target, but I remain a bit skeptical about their chemistry and Wallace's ability to master the route tree. The season-ending injury to Dustin Keller also damages Tannehill's prospects. What I like most about him is his calmness in the pocket -- and compared to Weeden, he is a superior talent. Tannehill is a capable runner to boot, so don't rule out a couple of rushing touchdowns boosting his value into the top 15-18 range.
Heath Cummings: I'm not overly excited about anyone from the group, but the two most likely to make the leap in my opinion are Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden.
Tannehill has a new weapon in Mike Wallace and a trusted guy underneath in Brian Hartline. Unfortunately he has a huge question mark in his offensive line. If that line gels and gives him even average protection he could definitely jump into the top 18 quarterbacks. I'd rather count on that happening in the second half of the season as that line could be really awful early on, and he hasn't fully developed rapport with Wallace yet.
Weeden will have his struggles early as well with Josh Gordon suspended for the first two weeks. Once Gordon returns, however, Weeden will have a really nice complement of targets and a better offensive line than Tannehill. The Browns are going to run the ball so much as long as the game is close that I think Weeden's best hope for becoming a good QB2 is if the team's defense is terrible. I don't think they're terrible. If Gordon comes back ready to roll, Jordan Cameron lives up to the hype, and the Browns find themselves playing catch up a lot, then Weeden could finish in the 15-18 range.
Speaking of playing from behind, Terrelle Pryor is someone that's getting a lot of run as a high upside QB2. I agree that his upside is high (just look at some of Carson Palmer's lines last season) but his floor is as low as anyone's. The Raiders are not really good at any position and it may take only one or two stinkers before Dennis Allen decides to give Matt Flynn a shot. If you're looking for a true boom-or-bust pick, Pryor may be the best one as long as you're prepared for the bust.
Jason Wood: Tannehill is the gem of this bunch, and it's not really close. We're so spoiled by the otherworldly rookie seasons of folks like Cam Newton and RGIII that we've forgotten it's perfectly normal for QBs to take a season or two rounding into shape. Tannehill knows this Dolphins offense inside-out, and I see him taking a very natural leap forward in his second year under center. He's got the athleticism to make plays with his legs, and now has better weapons to execute in the passing game. I could easily see him as a high-end QB2.
Of the rest, I'm most intrigued by EJ Manuel. His rushing potential is undeniable, but the other thing I love about him is a lightning quick release combined with an ability to make plays while under pressure. He'll thrive in Marrone's system.
Ryan Hester: In order, I like Manuel, Tannehill, Pryor, Weeden, Locker, Smith, Ponder, then Gabbert. Tannehill fell for me when Dustin Keller was lost for the season. I saw those two having great rapport. He still has some nice weapons around him, though. If you're somewhat conservative and want a high-floor guy, Tannehill or Weeden are your guys. If you're shooting for a guy among these average-or-below passers who could have QB1 upside in some weeks, you have to look to the rushing yards, which is why I rank Manuel and Pryor so high.
What are some of the offensive innovations we're likely to see this season from Chip Kelly?
Andy Hicks: To a lot of guys, myself included, this is going to be one of the most watched teams in week one. So many college coaches come in with new ideas and quickly get found out or quit and run back to college. The Eagles have gone all in with Chip Kelly and the idea of a fast paced offense will be very attractive to fantasy footballers. The reality is that it probably is a work in progress and everyone may need patience to see how this can really work in the NFL.
Dave Larkin: Predicting Chip Kelly's next offensive innovations isn't easy, but I expect to see plenty of base concepts (screen passes, option, reverses, bootlegs) with a twist involved. Overall, I think he'll adhere to his principles from Oregon, namely to pass to set up the run. No matter what Kelly has up his sleeve, I think we are in for a treat.
Heath Cummings: One thing I expect to be different with the Eagles is the fact that they may have two running backs worth starting more often than not. I don't see it as a RBBC because I still expect LeSean McCoy to see as many touches as he ever has, but I think the Eagles will run enough plays that Bryce Brown or Chris Polk will see the field much more than the average RB2. I could see Brown especially being a worthy flex play regularly even while McCoy is one of the top fantasy RBs.
Will the Eagles run more offensive plays than any other team?
Stephen Holloway: The Eagle offense will be one of the top stories early in 2013 for sure. I think that even though the expected high paced attack should produce the most plays, their defense may not be effective enough stopping the other team to give them that chance. They should definitely be in the top ten though.
Dave Larkin: The Eagles will probably run somewhere in the region of 70 plays a game if Kelly gets his way, but that may break down if his defense fails to hold up. It is a difficult balancing act going 100mph on offense and then trusting a sub-par defense to keep the score down.
Heath Cummings: I don't know that they'll run the most plays in the NFL this year just because they have to maintain drives consistently for that to happen, but I do expect they'll finish in the top five.
Will Michael Vick run the ball even more than he has in the past?
Stephen Holloway: Vick has ran an average of 6.8 times per game over his last three years with the Eagles, which is only one carry per game less than Can Newton (7.9) and Robert Griffin III III (7.8). With the faster pace and potential for additional offensive plays, he might run slightly more than he has over the past three seasons. Hopefully, Kelly is teaching him to get down or out of bounds more efficiently or he will not last the season taking the same type hits he has absorbed over his career on his now 33-year old body.
Heath Cummings: Vick will run the ball plenty, but more than he ever has? No. He had 123 carries in 2006, and that's more than 7.5 per game. I'd expect he'll average 5-6 carries per game, and (if he plays all 16 games) finish around 90 for the year.
Will Alex Henery's value increase from improved overall offensive production, or decrease if the team goes for it more often on fourth down instead of kicking field goals?
Stephen Holloway: Production out of place kickers is such a difficult thing to predict, you need to have somewhat effective offenses that are not able to produce in the red zone. The NFL is quite a bit more challenging than what most college coaches face and sooner or later, you come to the realization that points are points and field goals are productive to the cause. Regarding Henery, I expect him to be of similar efficiency as he has in years past. He has a career success rate over 88% on field goals and should continue that same success in his third season.
Dave Larkin: I think it is safe to predict that kicker Alex Henery will benefit from the Kelly offense; running an offense at such breakneck pace will inevitably bring with it the odd hiccup here and there, so Henery will accumulate field goals in droves.
Heath Cummings: Both. And neither. I don't see the Eagles offense having much of an effect on Henery's value, because I do think they'll get into field goal range more often but I also think we'll see more 4th down attempts. Like Stephen said, it's really difficult to project kickers, and even more so in an offense that we're all still trying to figure out.
Any thoughts about LeSean McCoy or DeSean Jackson?
Stephen Holloway: LeSean McCoy seems to be the perfect fit for a quick hitting game-plan that focuses on the running back position. He had over 1,600 yards from scrimmage two years ago and scored 20 TDs. Those numbers seem possible in the Eagles system in 2013.
Dave Larkin: LeSean McCoy will be the centerpiece of the entire offense and looked unstoppable in preseason, executing cuts that made your jaw drop. Expect around 25 touches per game for the uber-talented back, with a healthy dose of Bryce Brown and Chris Polk to balance out the speed/power element to the rushing attack. DeSean Jackson will be used in a number of ways, all geared towards getting him isolated and taking advantage of his speed. He may be boom-bust in fantasy leagues, but his upside may be too good to ignore.
Heath Cummings: I have McCoy as my #1 running back in PPR leagues, and I think this offense is a dream come true for him. Whether the Eagles are up and running the ball down people's throats or playing from behind he's going to be a huge part of the offense. If he plays all 16 games I expect a career year for McCoy. Jackson is a much trickier proposition because he's been so volatile in his short career. I trust that Kelly is going to find a way to keep Jackson involved and I see him putting up his best year since 2009.
The trio of tight ends?
Stephen Holloway: The tight ends seem to have more ability overall than their wide receiver counter-parts, with the except of DeSean Jackson. Jackson could be in line for a career year as his targets and receptions have always been on the low side for what his talent seems to command. Now, he is the top wide receiver by far. Brent Celek and Zach Ertz seem to both have necessary skill sets to be productive tight ends. I am just not sure that Vick is the best quarterback to effectively use tight ends to advantage. Expect Celek and Ertz to both have success, but likely not consistent week to week production. Casey seems destined to the third wheel of the tight ends and with Vick at quarterback, his opportunities will be limited.
Heath Cummings: I think people are seriously undervaluing Brent Celek. If he stays healthy he should have a great year as the third option in the passing game behind Jackson and McCoy.
That will do it for this edition of the Footballguys Roundtable. Please join us again next week.