Vegas Value Chart: Week 5

An early Vegas-based snapshot of the teams and positions to target in this week's DFS game slate.

Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week.  Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week.  Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves.  Let's take a look.

TeamOpponentAwayGame TotalTeam TotalRunningPassTeam Defense
New England Tampa Bay -5.5 55.5 30.5 +++ +++  
Dallas Green Bay -2 52.5 27.25 ++ ++  
Pittsburgh Jacksonville -8.5 43.5 26 +++ ++ ++
Philadelphia Arizona -6.5 45 25.75 ++ ++  
Green Bay Dallas 2 52.5 25.25 + +  
Tampa Bay New England 5.5 55.5 25 + ++  
Kansas City Houston -1.5 47 24.25 + +  
LA Rams Seattle -1.5 47 24.25 + +  
NY Giants LA Chargers -3.5 44.5 24 + +  
Detroit Carolina -3 44 23.5      
Seattle LA Rams 1.5 47 22.75      
Indianapolis San Francisco -1.5 44 22.75      
Houston Kansas City 1.5 47 22.75      
Tennessee Miami -3 41 22      
Minnesota Chicago -3.5 40.5 22     +
San Francisco Indianapolis 1.5 44 21.25      
Oakland Baltimore -2.5 40 21.25     +
Cincinnati Buffalo -3 39 21     +
LA Chargers NY Giants 3.5 44.5 20.5      
Carolina Detroit 3 44 20.5      
NY Jets Cleveland 0 39 19.5      
Cleveland NY Jets 0 39 19.5      
Arizona Philadelphia 6.5 45 19.25      
Miami Tennessee 3 41 19      
Baltimore Oakland 2.5 40 18.75      
Chicago Minnesota 3.5 40.5 18.5      
Buffalo Cincinnati 3 39 18      
Jacksonville Pittsburgh 8.5 43.5 17.5      

 

SUMMARY

3-STARS

2-STARS

1-STAR