Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Away | Game Total | Team Total | Running | Pass | Team Defense |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New England | New Orleans | -6.5 | 55 | 30.75 | +++ | +++ | |
Oakland | NY Jets | -14 | 43.5 | 28.75 | +++ | +++ | +++ |
Seattle | San Francisco | -13.5 | 43 | 28.25 | +++ | +++ | +++ |
Atlanta | Green Bay | -2.5 | 53.5 | 28 | +++ | +++ | |
Arizona | Indianapolis | -7.5 | 44.5 | 26 | ++ | ++ | + |
Kansas City | Philadelphia | -4.5 | 47.5 | 26 | ++ | ++ | |
Pittsburgh | Minnesota | -6.5 | 45 | 25.75 | + | ++ | |
Green Bay | Atlanta | 2.5 | 53.5 | 25.5 | + | ++ | |
Tampa Bay | Chicago | -7 | 43 | 25 | + | + | + |
Carolina | Buffalo | -7 | 42.5 | 24.75 | + | + | + |
LA Chargers | Miami | -4.5 | 45 | 24.75 | + | + | |
New Orleans | New England | 6.5 | 55 | 24.25 | + | ++ | |
LA Rams | Washington | -2.5 | 46 | 24.25 | + | + | |
Baltimore | Cleveland | -7.5 | 40.5 | 24 | + | + | ++ |
NY Giants | Detroit | -4 | 43.5 | 23.75 | |||
Tennessee | Jacksonville | -1.5 | 43.5 | 22.5 | |||
Dallas | Denver | -2 | 43 | 22.5 | |||
Washington | LA Rams | 2.5 | 46 | 21.75 | |||
Cincinnati | Houston | -5.5 | 38 | 21.75 | ++ | ||
Philadelphia | Kansas City | 4.5 | 47.5 | 21.5 | |||
Jacksonville | Tennessee | 1.5 | 43.5 | 21 | |||
Denver | Dallas | 2 | 43 | 20.5 | |||
Miami | LA Chargers | 4.5 | 45 | 20.25 | |||
Detroit | NY Giants | 4 | 43.5 | 19.75 | |||
Minnesota | Pittsburgh | 6.5 | 45 | 19.25 | |||
Indianapolis | Arizona | 7.5 | 44.5 | 18.5 | |||
Chicago | Tampa Bay | 7 | 43 | 18 | |||
Buffalo | Carolina | 7 | 42.5 | 17.75 | |||
Cleveland | Baltimore | 7.5 | 40.5 | 16.5 | |||
Houston | Cincinnati | 5.5 | 38 | 16.25 | |||
NY Jets | Oakland | 14 | 43.5 | 14.75 | |||
San Francisco | Seattle | 13.5 | 43 | 14.75 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Derek Carr (Raiders), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Matt Ryan (Falcons)
- Running Back: Mike Gillislee (Patriots), Marshawn Lynch (Raiders), Thomas Rawls (Seahawks), Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman (Falcons)
- Receivers: Brandin Cooks/Chris Hogan/Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree/Jared Cook (Raiders), Doug Baldwin/Paul Richardson Jr/Jimmy Graham (Seahawks), Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu/Austin Hooper (Falcons)
- Defense: Raiders, Seahawks
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Carson Palmer (Cardinals), Alex Smith (Chiefs), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Drew Brees (Saints)
- Running Back: Kerwynn Williams/Chris Johnson (Cardinals), Kareem Hunt (Chiefs)
- Receivers: Larry Fitzgerald/John Brown/J.J. Nelson (Cardinals), Tyreek Hill/Chris Conley/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Antonio Brown/Martavis Bryant/Jesse James (Steelers), Jordy Nelson/Davante Adams/Randall Cobb/Martellus Bennett (Packers), Michael Thomas/Ted Ginn Jr/Coby Fleener (Saints)
- Defense: Ravens, Bengals
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Jameis Winston (Buccaneers), Cam Newton (Panthers), Philip Rivers (Chargers), Jared Goff (Rams), Joe Flacco (Ravens)
- Running Back: LeVeon Bell (Steelers), Ty Montgomery (Packers), Jacquizz Rodgers (Buccaneers), Jonathan Stewart/Christian McCaffrey (Panthers), Melvin Gordon (Chargers), Mark Ingram/Adrian Peterson (Saints), Todd Gurley (Rams), Terrance West (Ravens)
- Receivers: Mike Evans/DeSean Jackson/Cameron Brate (Buccaneers), Kelvin Benjamin/Devin Funchess/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Keenan Allen/Tyrell Williams/Antonio Gates (Chargers), Jeremy Maclin/Mike Wallace (Ravens)
- Defense: Cardinals, Buccaneers, Panthers