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Footballguys Staff MFL10 Review: Rounds 5-8

A review of rounds 5-8 of the first post-NFL Draft Footballguys staff MFL10 league.

In case you missed it, you can find a breakdown of what happened in the first four rounds of the opening Footballguys staff MFL10 mock draft of 2017 here. As a reminder, MFL10s are Best Ball leagues. Our Justin Howe gave you a nice primer on the format here. And Sigmund Bloom did some great work earlier this offseason on positional strategy guides for MFL10s. Check them out on Bloom’s author page.

With those formalities out of the way, let’s dig into the action from Rounds 5-8:

Round 5

5.01 Justin Bonnema - Montgomery, Ty GBP RB
5.02 Stephen Holloway - Edelman, Julian NEP WR
5.03 Sigmund Bloom - Olsen, Greg CAR TE
5.04 Jeff Haseley - Ingram, Mark NOS RB
5.05 Alex Miglio - Coleman, Tevin ATL RB
5.06 Justin Howe - Snead, Willie NOS WR
5.07 James Brimacombe - Luck, Andrew IND QB
5.08 John Lee - Crowell, Isaiah CLE RB
5.09 Simon Shepherd - Sanders, Emmanuel DEN WR
5.10 Chris Feery - Brees, Drew NOS QB
5.11 Phil Alexander - Lynch, Marshawn OAK RB
5.12 David Dodds - Brady, Tom NEP QB

My Pick

Marshawn Lynch - I nearly overdrafted Lynch back in Round 3, but was ultimately seduced by Joe Mixon’s unknown ceiling. Considering Mixon was the only other back on my roster through four rounds, I was thrilled Lynch was still available here. If our running back rankings are any indication, opinions on Lynch will vary widely this draft season. Age and a year-and-a-half away from the game are obvious risks. But even if Lynch never regains his 2014 form, how much worse can he be playing behind one of the best offensive lines in football than Latavius Murray was last year?

Despite being stuffed at the line on only 7.2% of his runs (the sixth lowest rate in the league), Murray finished 23rd out 25 qualifiers in percent of rushes that went for 10 or more yards (8.2%). Still, the Raiders offense carried Murray to a RB13 finish in 2016 on the strength of nine touchdowns that came from inside the opponent’s five-yard-line. Oakland once again projects as one of the best offenses in the league and Lynch looks like their de facto touchdown maker. Given Murray’s modest 16.3 touch per game workload last season, Lynch’s floor is mid-range RB2. And if the time away from football ends up being just what he needed?

via GIPHY

Best Value

Marshawn Lynch - Did you really think I’d make it through two full articles without stroking my massive ego?

Lynch’s MFL10 ADP is about 3.08 and he lasted here until 5.11. Would I be giddy drafting Lynch in the third (where I expect him to go in most casual leagues)? No. But pairing Lynch with Jordy Nelson and T.Y. Hilton makes my swing from the heels on Mixon in the third round far more palatable.

Biggest Reach

Willie Snead - All the other picks in this round pretty much fell in line with the consensus, so technically Snead was the biggest reach about nine spots ahead of his ADP. But make no mistake about it -- this is a reach I LOVE. For as long as Drew Brees’ arm stays attached, the Saints will have one of the most prolific passing offenses in the league. With Brandin Cooks in New England and only Ted Ginn to replace him in New Orleans, Snead could be looking at 120 targets this season. Something resembling an 80-1,000-6 end-of-season receiving line is well within reach for Snead given the projected increase in target volume. Those are top-20 wide receiver numbers from the 29th wide receiver off the board.

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