With 25 days to go between now and the start of the regular season, it’s way too early to begin crafting DFS lineups that will actually be playable come September. But Draftkings released Week 1 NFL pricing on Wednesday and if you’re anything like the crew here at Footballguys, you’ve spent most of the days since happily creating dozens of lineups, despite the certainty preseason fallout will blow up at least 80% of them before the real games start.
Just in case you happen across this article in the next few weeks while prepping for Week 1, allow me to state the obvious:
You’re about to read my first blush, knee-jerk reactions to DraftKings’ Week 1 pricing. As summer winds down, some of these takes are going to appear downright silly, but we need to begin exercising our DFS brains in preparation for the season and it's never too early to begin checking a site's pricing for inefficiencies.
Here is what jumped off the spreadsheet as I began tinkering with Week 1 lineups:
Rishard Matthews is the Top Wide Receiver Value
Rishard Matthews might seem like a better candidate for top wide receiver bore, but hear me out. Oakland at Tennessee currently has the highest over/under on the Week 1 slate (52 points), and with the Raiders favored by only one point on the road, Vegas sees this matchup going back and forth. Last season, Oakland games went over 50 total points nine times, while the Titans had seven games that combined for 50+ points. This game has shootout written all over it, meaning the big names from both teams -- Amari Cooper, Derek Carr, Michael Crabtree, Marcus Mariota, DeMarco Murray -- will be highly owned in tournaments.