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Dynasty Rankings Movement, Week 3

Movement within the dynasty rankings of the Footballguys staff and the reasoning behind the movement

Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings.  Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly.  The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself.  Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all your teams.  The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly. 

Quarterback

Simpkins

Jared Goff - While Goff is showing he still has things to learn, we are seeing encouraging progress from year one to year two. He's making better decisions and has subsequently been more accurate this season. He completed over 70 percent of his passes in game one and 60 percent of his passes in game two. If the offensive line can continue to find cohesion this season and keep Goff upright, we could see the entire offense get even better.

Tyrod Taylor - The McDermott regime has not been kind to Taylor, getting rid of his best receiver and showing signs that they don't fully trust Taylor as their long-term option. A horrible offensive performance against the Panthers on Sunday doesn't help matters. One must question if Taylor will be able to last the year or if the team will want to see what it has in Nathan Peterman.

Wood

Mitchell Trubisky– Admittedly I was too low on Trubisky so this move is as much about me rectifying my own error as it’s in recognition of his near-term opportunity. The Bears are going to play Trubisky this year given how poorly the season has begun. His strong preseason hinted at optimism, but my main reason for finally moving the rookie higher is anticipation or wholesale changes to the Bears coaching staff and front office.

Trevor Siemian – Siemian was “just a guy” to most, and I felt my ranking was reasonably optimistic given the Broncos preference for Paxton Lynch to emerge. Siemian held off Lynch in the preseason, but more importantly, he has played exceptionally well through two weeks. It’s now far less likely the Broncos will prioritize an alternative in the next few seasons.

Alex Smith– Smith is in control of the Chiefs offense, and the supporting cast looks far more compelling than I feared a few months ago. Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt are all explosive and will help inflate Smith’s statistics thanks to their after-the-catch aptitude.

Ryan Tannehill – I’ve always been a Tannehill supporter, and felt he was primed for a breakthrough entering the 2nd season under Adam Gase. A season-ending injury changed things, perhaps permanently given Jay Cutler’s signing. If Cutler plays well, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him remain in place and by the time he’s ready to move on, the Dolphins probably look at a young developmental player. Tannehill could be forced to sign with another team and compete for a job or be an outright backup.

Paxton Lynch – The other side of my decision to upgrade Trevor Siemian is a requisite drop for Paxton Lynch. It’s hard to give up on Lynch completely, but he’s been given every opportunity to win the Broncos job and failed. Lynch wasn’t a universally beloved prospect coming out of college, but John Elway saw potential. If Lynch can’t win the Broncos job, it’s not clear any other team will give him a shot at a starting role.

Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo – Taylor was an at-risk pick as a dynasty QB2 already given the Bills coaching changeover and the front office’s disinterest in giving Taylor a long-term extension. Two weeks into the season and it seems even more apparent Taylor’s future as an NFL starter is limited.

Running Back

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Jalen Richard, Oakland – The Raiders added Marshawn Lynch to the mix, and he’ll be the centerpiece for a season or two. However, Richard has outplayed the other backups and has carved out a complementary role to Lynch. If Lynch gets hurt or retires, Richard has the explosive speed and dynamic vision to be a fantasy starter running behind the Raiders top-tier offensive line.

Kareem Hunt, Kansas City – I’m sure I’m not alone in dramatically reshaping my view of Hunt thanks to the first two weeks. Frankly, he looks like the best running back in football.

Ty Montgomery, Green Bay – I wasn’t a Montgomery believer. A converted receiver forced into the position by sheer lack of alternatives, I figured Ted Thompson’s drafting of Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones meant Montgomery’s time in the lead role was waning. Seeing him play through two weeks convinced me otherwise. He’s got better vision and leg push than I gave him credit for, and he seems set for a full-time role as long as he stays healthy.

LeGarrette Blount, PHI – Blount ran for 1,000+ yards and 18 touchdowns last season, so I felt the RB41 ranking was already a legitimately discounted ranking that reflected the risk of Blount changing teams and roles. I was wrong. Blount had zero carries in Week Two, and the Eagles have a mess of a committee with Blount being no better than one part of a four-man rotation.

Bilal Powell, NYJ – Powell’s situation in New York is tumultuous, and the lack of a supporting cast warranted caution. Yet, with the Jets rebuilding it seemed Matt Forte would be shown the door and Powell, at the very least, would be a PPR-dynamo as the cavalcade of quarterbacks used him as a safety valve. Two weeks into the season and Matt Forte has out-snapped Powell and played better. Powell’s value is falling like a brick.

Isaiah Crowell, CLE – The Browns had questions entering the season, but Crowell was not among them. Or so we thought. The offensive line was considered a solid run-blocking unit, yet it’s been unable to create any running room for Crowell through two weeks. He looks lost and indecisive, and at this point the idea of a committee with Duke Johnson makes sense.

Simpkins

Tarik Cohen - Another game of heavy usage should signal to owners that he isn't going away. Not much is working for the Bears on offense right now, but they've discovered a dynamic, albeit smaller-sized, talent in Tarik Cohen. After Jordan Howard sustained an injury (his arm was in a sling post-game), Cohen may be even more involved going forward.

Jordan Howard - His usage was already concerning owners last week, but the increased involvement of Tarik Cohen and an untimely injury spell disaster for Jordan Howard's dynasty stock. He's rapidly descending my rankings for these reasons.

Wide Receiver

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Corey Coleman - Coleman has been dinged throughout his two-year career and can't seem to find a long stretch of good health. His latest malady is a broken hand suffered on Sunday. Coleman had just started to find rapport and consistency with DeShone Kizer, but this will undoubtedly set him back. Coleman is very talented but moves down my board until I see him string together a healthy campaign.

Kenny Britt - Inconsistency and personal drive have been problems throughout Britt's career. We're seeing those issues crop back up again for Britt, whose lack of effort on Sunday was glaring. Coach Jackson had threatened to bench Britt leading into Sunday's game, and one must think that he'll revisit that decision this week. Britt already wasn't high on my board, but he slides even further given this disappointing development.

Wood

Nelson Agholor – I was unfair to Agholor and essentially discounted him completely. He re-committed to the playbook this summer and earned the starting slot receiver role for a young offense with two rent-a-starters in Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith. Agholor has a lot more to prove, but he’s back into dynasty relevance.

Chris Hogan – Hogan’s outlook has been a roller coaster ride. Brandin Cooks arriving hurt Hogan, but then Malcolm Mitchell and Julian Edelman’s injuries helped him. Hogan will be relevant on one of the NFL’s best offenses this year. Is that enough to stake a larger role in 2018 and beyond?

Tyreek Hill – Andy Reid handed Hill the lead role when the Chiefs parted ways with Jeremy Maclin, and through two weeks it’s clear Hill is up to the challenge. He’s a better route runner than I gave him credit for and has an obvious rapport with Alex Smith.

Emmanuel Sanders – Sanders’ previous ranking was a reflection of skepticism over the Broncos quarterback corps. Trevor Siemian (who I also upgraded) has looked good and has featured Sanders early in the season.

Donte Moncrief – Perhaps I’m letting Andrew Luck’s injury cloud my judgment too much, but it’s hard for me to view Moncrief as a premier fantasy asset any longer. He’s contingent on an elite quarterback and an offensive system that throws downfield aggressively.

Allen Robinson – Robinson is coming off a woeful season, and I expected a bounceback. A torn ACL on the first play of the year assures any bounceback won’t come until 2018, if ever.

Cameron Meredith – Meredith was the best receiver in Chicago last year, but that was as much about being the only live body as it was underlying talent. The season-ending injury casts doubt on whether Meredith will ever get the chance to repeat 2015’s modest accomplishments.

Jordy Nelson – Nelson’s Week Two injury appears to be minor (day to day), but it’s a stark reminder of his injury history. His latest injury and his age make it prudent to discount Nelson more in dynasty leagues. I would be more comfortable trading Nelson for youth than I was a month ago.

Tight End

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George Kittle – Kittle wasn’t on my radar, and that was a mistake. The die was cast when San Francisco traded Vance McDonald at the end of the preseason and thrust Kittle into the starting lineup.

Jason Witten – Witten’s career is near its end, but he’s still far too productive to rank as low as I had him previously. Even if he only gives you another two seasons, the TE20 ranking is conservative.

Evan Engram – Engram was the best of a great rookie class all preseason, and with Brandon Marshall looking washed up, Engram should see regular snaps immediately.

Tyler Higbee – Ranking Higbee 14th was simply too aggressive given Gerald Everett’s presence. The Rams offense is showing reasons for optimism, but Higbee needs to show more to warrant a slot in the dynasty Top 20.

Cameron Brate – Brate isn’t going to be used enough to warrant a Top 20 ranking and O.J. Howard is the future.

Simpkins

Gerald Everett - I've been higher on Everett than the general consensus, but he'll move up for others who weren't as high on him after his performance on Sunday. We saw a flash of why the team traded up to get the big man in the NFL Draft when he went streaking down the field for a sixty-nine-yard gain. We should see this team get their version of Jordan Reed (minus the injuries) more involved as the season wears on.

Jordan Reed - I've had enough of Reed as a dynasty owner. I own no shares of him across my teams and I warn others constantly not to get enticed by the upside. I am hesitant to label players as injury prone, but Jordan Reed is one of the few that deserves the label. His latest iteration of the injury bug involves a chest injury. He's already dealing with a broken foot for which he is wearing an orthotic. It's unlikely you can cash out on Reed at this point; but when he's healthy again, it's time to move on.