TipAndPick's: Tips and Picks, DK Edition

Cash game and GPP selections for DraftKings

For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.

Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.

TIPS...

In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to take into account the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.

CASH GAME TIPS

CHALK-TALK: The week started off with very little value presenting itself, thereby making cash game rosters difficult to construct without some degree of risk. However, a practice injury to LeSean McCoy tentatively opened up a lot of value with backup Mike Gillislee ($3.0K) looking to get 20+ touches for a site-minimum salary. McCoy surprised us on Friday with a limited practice and it was announced that he would be a true game-time decision on Sunday. That said, Jacquizz Rodgers ($4.3K) has been the value at running back all week and will probably be the highest-owned player on DraftKings in Week #7. Likewise, there is plenty of value at the quarterback position this week with Andy Dalton ($6.0K) playing the Browns and even Geno Smith ($5.0K) playing a Ravens' defense that has been beaten through the air all season. That leaves one plenty of salary left for the wide receiver position, where Mike Evans ($7.8K) will be the most highly-owned player across the board, now that Vincent Jackson went on the injured reserve with an ACL injury. Collectively, these value plays set up for a week with a lot of overlap in cash games, a dangerous proposition where the difference between winning and losing can be just a few players and a team defense; for this reason, I would recommend the following strategies to hedge against a disappointing week in your cash games:

HEDGE STRATEGIES: The first thing you should consider this week is to use multiple cash game lineups. Decide on whether you will play two or three cash game lineups and then distribute them accordingly into your designated cash games. The recommendation here is to start one lineup with a high-priced QB (i.e., Tom Brady) and build around him. Start the second lineup with a cheaper QB (i.e., Andy Dalton) and build around him. Approaching your lineup construction in this manner should force you to roster a different set of players across multiple rosters, while also allowing you to key in on players who you just do not want to fade (i.e. Jacquizz Rodgers). It is entirely acceptable to have 100% exposure to a player you love in this scenario--just recognize that there is risk associated with that level of exposure and plan accordingly. The second recommendation made here is to build a set of lineups with and without Mike Gillislee and have them ready for when we learn what will happen with LeSean McCoy on Sunday morning. If McCoy is announced as inactive and you have zero shares of Gillislee, you are going to want to get him into your lineups, as he could be the best value on the board at that point. Doing so with only an hour's worth of time to build new lineups, however, can be both nerve-wracking and inefficient, so it makes a lot of sense to build them beforehand and just import/export those lineups according to what we hear from Adam Schefter on Sunday morning. This is easy to accomplish on DraftKings, where you can build rosters ahead of time using the "Create a Lineup" tab on the landing page; just build it, enter whatever contests you like, build your backup roster thereafter, and wait for official word on Sunday morning.

GPP TIPS

Knowing what I have outlined above about some of the chalky plays (i.e., Jacquizz Rodgers, Mike Evans, etc.), you can begin to strategize on how you will want to attack tournaments in Week #7. My suspicion is that one of two approaches will win the biggest GPP's on Sunday.

MID-PRICED STUDS: The first strategy involves focusing on players in the middle pricing tier ($4.5K through $7.0K). The thought process here is that most people are going to start building their GPP rosters with the value selections at RB (Rodgers and Gillislee) and then taking expensive players at other positions; this "stars and scrubs" approach has won many tournaments in the past, but is generally more effective when everybody is not doing it. Other people are going to recognize this strategy and are going to do the polar opposite--spend up at RB (i.e., DeMarco Murray, LeVeon Bell, etc.) and find value at WR (i.e., Marqise Lee, Ricardo Louis, Pierre Garcon, etc.). In doing so, those individuals will create (in their minds) more unique lineups, but I suspect a fair number of people will be of the same mindset, thereby negating some of the benefit of that approach. For these reasons, it makes a lot of sense to try to find high-upside players in the middle tier of pricing because that will force you away from the "stars and scrubs" mentality and really diversify your rosters.

ALTERNATIVE STARS & SCRUBS: As a secondary approach to your GPP lineup construction, you might consider taking the "stars and scrubs" approach, but completely going away from the chalk selections discussed in the cash game section. For example, Jacquizz Rodgers and Mike Gillislee should be 20-40% owned on Sunday, but if one of them disappoints due to injury or gamescript, those rosters will be drawing dead against the 60-80% of the field who did not roster them. The key will be to avoid the chalk value plays that disappoint, so what you might consider is to find alternative value plays with equivalent high-upside that will be far lesser-owned. I have listed a few of my favorite options below, including Chris Ivory against a bad Oakland rush defense and an unknown Ricardo Louis in gamescript that should set up well for early success; the common denominator with these selections is that their low-ownership will differentiate your rosters from the masses who have Jacquizz Rodgers and Marquise Goodwin in the same spots at much higher ownership levels. If the chalk selections falter, but yours hit, you will be thankful that you zigged when everybody else zagged.

...AND PICKS

Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. There is little difference in terms of strength of selection between those players who have text to justify their appearance in this article versus those in the "also eligible" section; all are strong plays in their respective categories, but time and space restrictions do not allow for expansive written summaries of every player listed.

CASH GAME PICKS

QUARTERBACKS

Tom Brady (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $7,900). Since returning from his four-game suspension, Tom Brady has picked apart his opponents, averaging 382 passing yards and 3 touchdowns per game against the Browns and Bengals (30.28 DraftKings points/game). This Sunday, Brady will take his show to Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, where the Steelers will look to a porous defense to help them stay competitive without Ben Roethlisberger, who will miss the next few games with a knee injury suffered against the Dolphins last Sunday. The ineptitude of the Steelers' defense has been largely hidden by their offense, an offense that is averaging 25.7 points per game and has led them to a 4-2 record despite the fact that their defense is ranked 28th in the league in total yards allowed. Looking a bit deeper into the Steelers' numbers, they have allowed only six passing touchdowns (6th in NFL), yet are yielding 293.7 passing yards per game (30th in NFL), an indication that their secondary should be in line for some negative regression in the touchdowns allowed category. Enter Tom Brady, who should have no trouble picking apart this secondary with the likes of Julian Edelman, Martellus Bennett, and Rob Gronkowski, all of whom will present personnel matchup problems for the Steelers. With the value that is available at other roster spots, rostering Brady should be a relatively painless task for cash games and should provide a scoring floor of 20-24 fantasy points (with 30+ point upside) for the $7.9K investment.

Andy Dalton (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $6,000). At a 25% discount from Tom Brady, you might consider Andy Dalton as your cash game quarterback against a Cleveland Browns' defense whose caliber is just a notch above college-level. The Browns field the 30th-ranked DVOA pass defense, one that has allowed 16 passing touchdowns (31st in NFL) and 18+ fantasy points to every opposing quarterback this season. To make matters worse, Cleveland's best pass defender, Joe Haden, is doubtful to play with a groin injury, meaning that the Browns will look to a pair of undrafted free agent rookies (Tramon Williams and Tracy Howard) to fill in the gaps in coverage. This all bodes well for Dalton, whose fantasy output through six games has been pedestrian at best; the six-year starter has only six touchdowns through six games, a rate that is the worst of his career and certainly in line for some positive regression. In games where Dalton has not played an upper-tier defense (Denver/New England), he is averaging 324 yards passing and 1.3 touchdowns per game, good enough for ~ 21 DraftKings points. If Dalton can put up similar numbers at home against the worst defense he has faced all season, he should have no problems hitting a similar scoring threshold, which would be far above the 3x multiplier we need to justify his presence in our cash game rosters.

Also eligibleKirk Cousins ($5,900)

RUNNING BACKS

Spencer Ware (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $5,800). Taking a bit of chance here by recommending Spencer Ware as a cash game play without fully knowing the status of Jamaal Charles entering Sunday's matchup against the Saints, but I suspect we are going to see Charles either sit or be very limited, both of which favor a big role for Ware. Even with Charles active over the past two weeks, Ware has still enjoyed the lion's share of attention out of the backfield, including 74% and 65% of opportunities, respectively; with Charles' knee not responding well to the increased action, Andy Reid should take it easy with Charles to avoid worsening the issue. If Ware does get a significant portion of the Chiefs' snaps out of the backfield, it should result in a very productive day, as the Saints are leading the league in rushing touchdowns allowed (11) this season; furthermore, they have allowed four running backs in their previous three games to score 20+ DraftKings points, a number that would represent nearly 4x value for Ware's $5.8K salary. With one of the highest implied team totals on the entire Week #7 slate and a favorable gamescript, Spencer Ware is an elite cash and GPP play, assuming Jamaal Charles' usage is limited (or absent) on Sunday.

Jacquizz Rodgers (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $4,300). With both Doug Martin and Charles Sims watching games from the sidelines, Jacquizz Rodgers is the lone three-down running back for the Buccaneers for the second straight week. In his premier week as the lead running back against the Panthers, Rodgers touched the ball 35 times for 129 all-purpose yards, but did not reach the endzone. He may find the sledding a bit easier this Sunday against a 49'ers front seven that is yielding a whopping 5.0 yards per carry this season, not to mention nine rushing touchdowns (31st in NFL). Rodgers is not suited for 30+ touches every game and it would be surprising to see him hit that mark again, even with Martin and Sims inactive; instead, expect to see Rodgers touch the ball 20-25 times, including some usage as a receiver out of the backfield, all of which should make him the highest-owned player on DraftKings this week. He will be 60% owned in cash game formats and probably 35% owned in tournament play for all of these reasons. Keep in mind: if LeSean McCoy is announced as inactive on Sunday morning, those numbers could drop when DFS players pivot from Rodgers to Mike Gilislee to save an additional $1.3K.

Also eligibleDeMarco Murray ($7,200), Mike Davis ($3,000)

WIDE RECEIVERS

Mike Evans (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $7,800). Because of the value available at other positions (namely RB), we should expect to see Mike Evans as a very highly-owned cash game receiver on Sunday. Evans has a plush matchup against the visiting 49'ers, who fields a defense that has allowed the 2nd-most points per game (30.8) this season. Perhaps the biggest reason to roster Evans is the fact that Vincent Jackson was placed on the injured reserve with an ACL injury earlier this week. In Mike Evans' short career, he has played six games without Vincent Jackson; he has averaged 3.7 more targets and 36.5 more receiving yards per game in those appearances (an additional 7.4 DraftKings points per game), a trend that argues strongly in his favor this Sunday. To date, Evans has suffered primarily from poor passes from Jameis Winston, whose 58.5% pass completion rate ranks him in the bottom five of qualifying NFL quarterbacks; that said, Evans has four consecutive games with double-digit targets and is almost a shoo-in for 12+ targets in this matchup, which keeps him squarely in the discussion as a cash game option in what should be a tightly contested game.

Pierre Garcon (Primarily cash games, Salary: $3,700). Averaging seven targets per game to this point in the season, Pierre Garcon is too cheap in a week where Jordon Reed will not be taking the field for the Redskins. Last week, in Reed's first missed game, we saw Garcon collect a season-high 11 targets en route to a 13.7 fantasy point day; this week, Garcon, alongside Vernon Davis, should continue to usurp many of the underneath routes previously run by Jordon Reed, resulting in another 8-12 targets. Meanwhile, the matchup is elite, as the Lions have allowed 17 receiving touchdowns, more than any other team in the league. Further supporting a solid day for Garcon is that he should see about two-thirds of his routes against Detroit's Nevin Lawson or Quandre Diggs, who have allowed opposing passers to complete over 80% of their intended passes while in coverage for nearly 500 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. At only $3.7K, Garcon needs only 10 fantasy points to reach value and it would not be surprising to see him hit that mark by halftime.

Also eligibleT.Y. Hilton ($7,700), Tyrell Williams ($4,700), Marquise Goodwin ($3,000)

TIGHT ENDS

Rob Gronkowski (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $7,200). There is enough value at multiple positions this week where fitting in Rob Gronkowski into DraftKings lineups should be somewhat painless. After back-to-back 100-yard performances, Gronkowski's salary is too low for the type of scoring potential he confers from an otherwise volatile position; Gronk is only $7.2K, but basically functions as a WR1 in the Patriots' offense, which means that you are getting a discounted WR1 on a high-scoring team for the price of a middle-tier wide receiver. Ordinarily, it is worth discussing the weakness of the opposing defense to legitimize the selection, but Gronkowski is matchup-proof, so there is not a whole lot to consider beyond his price. If you can afford him, slot him into your rosters.

Jack Doyle (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $2,500). If you are thinking about going with high-end quarterbacks and receivers, Jack Doyle could provide some much-needed salary relief from the tight-end position. Offered up at the site-minimum $2.5K price point, Doyle is a low-risk option who could feasibly yield 6x (or more) value in a nice matchup against the Titans. Ordinarily, rostering Doyle would be a volatile play, as the Colts have a bevy of receivers who could steal targets from him; this week should be different, as Donte Moncrief, Phillip Dorsett, Dwayne Allen will all miss the game against the Titans with injuries. Dorsett and Allen were averaging nearly 10 targets per game, which means that those opportunities will have to be redistributed amongst the T.Y. Hilton, Chester Rodgers, and Dwayne Allen. Obviously, Hilton will continue to be the focus of Luck's attention, but Doyle should be next in line because he has an established rapport with Luck, having caught 20 of 23 passes for 203 yards and 3 touchdowns this season (and 83.3% of passes over his career). The Titans have allowed five different tight ends to score 8 or more DraftKings points this season, which would be more than enough to pay off Doyle's meager salary for cash game formats.

Also eligibleVernon Davis ($2,900)

TEAM DEFENSES

Vikings (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $3,700). The Minnesota Vikings trail only the Broncos and Bills in sacks this season with 19 and will face an Eagles' offensive line that allowed five sacks last Sunday against the Redskins. The Eagles were expecting some issues with their offensive line after perennial All-Pro tackle Lane Johnson was hit with a 10-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, but they likely could not have predicted the impact that his loss would make until seeing Carson Wentz get pressured in nearly half of their offensive snaps (hit or hurried in nearly 40% of those dropbacks). With the Eagles having one of the lower implied team totals on the board this weekend, this looks to be a prime spot to roster the rested Vikings coming off a bye week and hoping to pick up their 5th double-digit fantasy point performance in six games this season.

Bengals (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $3,600). If you are uncomfortable with rostering the Vikings as a road favorite, dropping down $100 will get you the Bengals' defense at home. While the Bengals do not boast a dominant defensive unit like the Vikings, they are playing the league's worst team, the Cleveland Browns, who will likely be without their best all-around player, Terrelle Pryor. Pryor has single-handedly kept the Browns in contention in many of their games, but is looking to miss this week's game due to a hamstring injury suffered in last week's game; if Pryor plays, he will likely be limited, which means that Cody Kessler will have to turn to Andrew Hawkins and Ricardo Louis as his primary wide receivers, a scenario that would appear to favor the Bengals, as they try to gain ground on the Steelers in the AFC North while Ben Roethlisberger is out with a knee injury.

GPP PICKS

QUARTERBACKS

Philip Rivers (Salary: $6,500). After allowing only one passing touchdown over the past two weeks, one might come to the conclusion that the Falcons' secondary has fixed whatever caused them to allow an average of 323 yards and 3.3 touchdowns (29.1 DraftKings points) through the air over their first four games. An alternative conclusion is that the Falcons faced the 26th- and 35th-ranked NFL quarterbacks (Russell Wilson and Paxton Lynch) in those latter two games, which granted their defense a temporary reprieve. Given that no major personnel changes have been made on the Falcons' defense, the latter explanation would appear to be the more reasonable scenario. We should get more information this weekend, when Philip Rivers and the Chargers fly east to play the Falcons in Atlanta at 4 PM (EST), which should minimize concerns sometimes associated with playing west coast teams in early (1 PM) games. For his part, Rivers has withstood the injuries to Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead quite well, entering this weekend's matchup as the 7th-leading fantasy QB using DraftKings-based scoring. He is coming off a poor start against the Broncos, an excusable departure from his previous outings, considering the strength of the Denver secondary; this matchup against the Falcons, however, should pose far fewer threats because they have allowed 27.7 points per game to opposing offenses (27th in NFL), including the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. There will be a sizeable number of DFS players planting a flag with Melvin Gordon against the Falcons' rush defense, but Gordon's fantasy success thus far has been largely attributable to his seven touchdowns, rather than the embarrassing 3.4 yards per carry he has compiled; that, combined with the fact that the Falcons' offense should keep their foot on the gas throughout the game (as they have done all season), makes Rivers an elite, high-upside GPP option in Week #7.

Matthew Stafford (Salary: $6,400). With three or more passing touchdowns in two-thirds of his games this season, Matthew Stafford should be squarely on your GPP radar this weekend against the Redskins. Some will argue that the matchup against the Redskins is tough because of how they shut down the Eagles' passing attack last week, but they did so on the heels of five sacks and a dozen quarterback hits or hurries that largely came as a result of perennial All-Pro Tackle Lane Johnson missing the game (and the next nine thereafter) due to a suspension. A look back at their game-by-game performances to opposing quarterbacks shows that the Redskins have only faced one team (Giants) with a series of strong receivers and they allowed 350 yards passing in that matchup. This matchup is similar to the Giants on paper, as the Lions feature Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, and Anquan Boldin, while not having a lot of confidence in their running game due to the loss of Theo Riddick (and Ameer Abdullah) to injury. With a similar injury situation in their backfield last Sunday, the Lions went to Stafford often and he responded with an efficient 270-yard, 4-touchdown game that resulted in 28.2 DraftKings points. Outside of Josh Norman, the Redskins will field subpar cornerbacks (Kendall Fuller and Bashaud Breeland) which means that whoever is not being covered by Norman should be in a great position to catch the litany of passes that Stafford will likely throw on Sunday.

Also eligible: Alex Smith ($6,100), Sam Bradford ($5,100)

RUNNING BACKS

Jeremy Hill (Salary: $4,000). One of my favorite GPP selections this weekend, Jeremy Hill has the perfect combination of upside, ownership, and matchup to catapult your lineups to the top of the leaderboards. First, recency bias will keep him off a lot of DFS rosters because he has struggled over the previous two weeks, logging only 50 rushing yards on 17 carries (2.9 yards per carry) against the Patriots and Cowboys. That said, Hill has been dealing with extreme shoulder/chest pain that resulted from an injury sustained in Week #4, an injury that has led to him playing in only 26.0% of the team's snaps (versus 46.7% prior to the injury) in that span. This has been the first week since the injury that Hill's name has not appeared on the injury report and we should expect to see him return to his normal usage, which would include 16-20 touches as the lead back in the Bengals' offense. This is a perfect gamescript, as the Bengals have a 28-point implied team total and are favored to win by 10.5 points, which would be ideal for Hill, as he tends to see more playing time when the Bengals are playing with a lead. Last season, Hill had three multi-touchdown games and he already has one against Denver this season, which argues that he possesses sufficient upside to merit a roster spot in your GPP lineups at a modest $4.0K salary in a plus matchup against the Browns.

Chris Ivory (Salary: $3,400). A leverage play, Chris Ivory is very sneaky for tournaments on DraftKings this weekend because of the likely high ownership of similarly-priced alternatives such as Jacquizz Rodgers, Mike Gillislee, and Mike Davis. If LeSean McCoy does not play on Sunday, it would not be surprising to see those latter names owned at rates surpassing 30% in tournaments (especially Rodgers and Gillislee); those are dangerously high ownership rates to jump on board with, as an injury or freak gamescript could hamper their respective value immediately. Meanwhile, Chris Ivory is sitting at only $3.4K and will be completely overlooked in that price range because he has not surpassed 50 rushing yards all season, not mention that T.J. Yeldon is viewed as the 'starter' despite the fact that Ivory continues to get more carries than Yeldon. The matchup is superb, as the Raiders are bleeding yardage on the ground, allowing 4.8 yards per carry and 132.2 rushing yards per game, both of which are 30th in the league. There is a lot of good reason to target Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, and Marqise Lee in this matchup, but Chris Ivory will be less than 5% owned and also has two-touchdown upside at a bargain price.

Also eligible: Christine Michael ($6,700), Devonta Freeman ($5,900), LeGarrette Blount ($4,900)

WIDE RECEIVERS

Julian Edelman (Salary: $6,500). In his first two weeks returned from suspension, Tom Brady has amassed almost 800 passing yards and 6 touchdowns and Julian Edelman has compiled exactly 65 yards with zero touchdowns in those efforts. How long do you think that the Patriots' WR1 is going to go without a big receiving day, especially considering the fact that Edelman scored 15 or more fantasy points in 88% of games that he finished last season? In fairness, we are not looking for 15 fantasy points from a $6.5K receiver in GPP formats, but the point is that Edelman has upside, but we tend to think of him as a possession receiver when he had two-touchdown performances in 25% of his games just a season ago. This week, you are going to read multiple articles, as well as social media, suggesting that we should be focusing our attention on Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett in the Patriots' offense, but we all know that Bill Belichick plays to the beat of his own band and it would not be surprising to see Edelman burst out with an 8-reception, 100-yard game with a pair of scores at only 5% ownership. This is a high-upside leverage play for those of you looking to pair Tom Brady with a receiver not in the tight end slot to capitalize on Brady's upside with a contrarian receiver.

Mike Wallace (Salary: $5,800). A very intriguing GPP play, Mike Wallace is in a position for a career day on Sunday against a Jets' defense that has no answer for a receiver with his skill set. The Jets have been throttled by the big play, having allowed eight separate passing plays of 40+ yards (2nd most in NFL) and nearly 300-passing yards per game over the course of their first six games. Those numbers could conceivably be higher if not for the dominance of David Johnson over the Jets' front seven last Monday night, resulting in Carson Palmer throwing far less than he might have otherwise. Until that performance, the Jets had been largely unstoppable up front, holding opponents to only 3.1 yards per carry; Johnson single-handedly skewed that number upwards on Monday, but it still rests at a respectable 3.4 yards per carry on the season. The Ravens will try to establish the run with their new RB1, Terrance West, but the likelihood of West experiencing "Johnson-like" success against the Jets' defensive line is unlikely; the most logical response will be for Joe Flacco to look for Mike Wallace in the passing game, where the Jets are most vulnerable. With Steve Smith missing another game due to an ankle injury, Wallace (along with Dennis Pitta, below) should see almost double-digit targets, which is a lot of shots on goal against a terrible secondary.

Also eligible: A.J. Green ($8,600), Marvin Jones ($7,000), Stefon Diggs ($6,000), Ricardo Louis ($3,000), Chester Rodgers ($3,000). 

TIGHT ENDS

Dennis Pitta (Salary: $4,000). Going back to the well with Dennis Pitta again this week because he still has not scored that (those?) touchdown(s) that is long overdue. Entering this season, the big 6'5" redzone target averaged a touchdown every 12.5 receptions; this season, however, Pitta has logged 34 receptions without reaching paydirt even once. In fact, there is no single receiver in the NFL who has more targets than Pitta without having scored a touchdown; in the redzone, Pitta has been the second most-targeted receiver behind Mike Wallace, an indication that Pitta's negative regression is not due to a lack of opportunity inside the 20-yard line. Since Steve Smith left the Ravens' Week #5 game with an ankle injury, Pitta has received 18 targets, firmly cementing him as the second receiving option behind Mike Wallace in the Baltimore offense. Lastly, the matchup against the Jets is stellar, as any time they have faced off against an above-average (or better) tight end this season, they have allowed 16+ fantasy points.

Charles Clay (Salary: $3,000). The Bills will take their four-game winning streak to south Florida on Sunday to take on the Miami Dolphins, who upset the Steelers there last week. The Bills' offense is a M.A.S.H. unit entering this matchup with both of their primary receivers, Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods, watching from the sidelines; meanwhile, LeSean McCoy will be a true game-time decision, which could result in Mike Gillislee taking the bulk of the carries out of the Buffalo backfield. If McCoy does not play or is limited, Clay becomes an excellent de facto GPP play because he will be the primary target in the redzone. Clay was already receiving the second-most targets in the passing game after Robert Woods and was the most-targeted receiver inside the redzone; however, he has not yet scored, mostly because McCoy has seven touchdowns through six games, a trend that will surely end if McCoy is not playing (or limited) due to his injury. Like the Jets (see Dennis Pitta writeup, above), the Dolphins have struggled to contain better-than-average tight ends this season, allowing 5 or more catches and 50+ yards in all three instances where they have done so (Martellus Bennett, Gary Barnidge, and Delanie Walker).

Also eligible: Travis Kelce (Salary: $5,300).

DEFENSES

Seahawks (Salary: $3,300). Probably the best all-around defense in the league, the Seattle Seahawks were challenged last week by the Atlanta Falcons, who appear to have the best offense in the league to this point in the season. The Seahawks held on, however, and eeked out a win over the Falcons despite Matt Ryan's best effort to the contrary. This week, they will travel to Arizona to take on a Cardinals' offense that rode David Johnson hard on Monday night; Johnson exposed the Jets' front seven and ran for 100+ yards and 3 touchdowns en route to a 28-3 victory. The question entering this matchup between the Seahawks and Cardinals is whether the short week of preparation will affect the Cardinals' ability to move the ball on the Seahawks' defense? In a pair of games last season, the Seahawks dominated the Cardinals in Arizona, allowing only six points while collecting a pair of sacks and three interceptions, but faltered at home, allowing 39 points in a disappointing loss. If you believe they can repeat last year's effort in Phoenix, this would be a prime spot to roster them because they will likely be low-owned after a national TV appearance that saw the Cardinals dominant the Jets.

Ravens (Salary: $2,800). The Jets will put Geno Smith under center on Sunday for the first time in a year and the second time in almost two years, a situation that could end very well for the Ravens' defense based on previous experience. In his rookie season in 2013, Smith was downright terrible, completing only 55% of his passes and throwing almost twice as many interceptions (21) as touchdowns (12); his sophomore season was improved and saw him complete almost 60% of passes and an equal number of touchdowns/interceptions (13/each). With almost two years of watching from the sidelines, one has to wonder which Geno we will see on Sunday? It is difficult to say, but we know the Jets are going to have to lean heavily on Smith because the Ravens should be able to handle Matt Forte with ease, as he has been struggling and the Ravens have been dominant in defending the run with the best DVOA rush defense in the league. The return of former All-Pro CB Jimmy Smith should also help shore up a secondary that has stumbled to this point in the season. At only $2.8K, the Ravens need only 10 points to achieve GPP value, which is reasonable given the lack of offensive weaponry on the Jets' side of the ball.

Also eligible: Bills ($3,400), Titans (Salary: $2,500).