For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to take into account the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.
CASH GAME Tips
Coming off Week #5, where value presented itself at every position, there are some questions about value players entering this weekend's games. At the quarterback position, Alex Smith is a salary-saver at only $5.7K and looks to be in line for a solid day of production against an Oakland defense that has allowed every QB not named Marcus Mariota to score 22 or more DraftKings points this season; however, there are concerns about the weather in Oakland and rostering Smith means that you will not be rolling with Cam Newton, Tom Brady, or Drew Brees, all of whom have much higher floors with their increased salaries. Running back is where you will want to spend your money this week because there are multiple players at the position (see the "Picks" section below) who are in perfect spots. Coming off a week where cheap RB's like Jerick McKinnon and DeAndre Washington disappointed, I expect recency bias to take effect and the majority of the field to anchor their rosters around more expensive guys like LeSean McCoy, LeVeon Bell, and DeMarco Murray. That brings us to wide receiver, which is likely going to be where money is won and lost in cash games this Sunday. If a person spends up at QB and RB, they are going to have to take chances at WR and there are some justifiable options, but none of them come without risk (see "Picks" section for more detail). That leaves the tight end position, where there are few basement-bargain options this week, as there has been for multiple weeks, which means that you are likely going to have to spend ~ $4K or more to roster a safe tight end this week; a few are discussed in the "Picks" section below, but suffice it to say that spending $4K or more on a TE is only going to make those WR selections that much more dicey.
If you read the section on how I suspect cash game rosters will be built this weekend, you also know how I think GPP rosters are going to be constructed--starting with high-end quarterbacks and running backs with wide receivers being an afterthought. This should come as no surprise because the safer plays this Sunday are at the QB/RB positions, which people will gravitate towards, while taking their chances at WR. If you want to differentiate your tournament lineups from the masses, a shark maneuver would be to first choose a high-dollar wide receiver in a plus matchup (i.e., Odell Beckham, Jr.), pair him with his respective quarterback, and then complete your roster around those players. Doing so will ensure that you are not going after the same few quarterbacks that will be the focus of the majority of tournament lineups (the same list from the "Cash Game Tips" section above) and will force you to diversify at the WR position, where the rest of the field is going to try to save a few dollars. Likewise, spending up at the WR receiver position is going to force you to try to save salary at the RB position, where the masses are going to be spending their salaries on LeVeon Bell, LeSean McCoy, and DeMarco Murray; each of those players are in prime matchups and possess enough upside to win tournaments, but their ownership levels are going to be high enough that you will still need that low-owned player(s) who hits 4x value elsewhere. This general strategy is one that works well because securing low-owned players who reach 4x (or more) value will yield huge dividends when the rest of the field is locked in on a select group of players. With that premise in mind, I would not advise you to completely fade the popular Drew Brees-Brandin Cooks, Cam Newton-Kelvin Benjamin, or Tom Brady-Julian Edelman stacks entirely because each of them carries immense upside in their respective matchups; however, if you do construct lineups around those popular plays, ensure that you are looking to go contrarian elsewhere because GPP rosters without a sub-5% owned player rarely win large-field GPP tournaments.
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. There is little difference in terms of strength of selection between those players who have text to justify their appearance in this article versus those in the "also eligible" section; all are strong plays in their respective categories, but time and space restrictions do not allow for expansive written summaries of every player listed.
CASH GAME PickS
Cam Newton (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $8,100). Coming off a full week of practice after missing his Monday night game against the Buccaneers, Cam Newton should be a full go on Sunday in an excellent matchup against the Saints. Despite the concussion he suffered in Week #4, all reports suggest that Cam is not going to change his style of play moving forward, which means that we should see him continue to be the playmaker in the Panthers offense. The matchup against New Orleans is pristine, as the Saints have FootballOutsiders' 26th rank pass defense that has bled yardage to opposing quarterbacks this season (312.0 passing yards per game), not to mention the fact that no team has a higher implied team total (28 points) than the Panthers. With a 1-4 record entering this game, the Panthers are in a must-win situation and we should expect to see Superman pull out all the stops to ensure that Carolina has a path forward that allows them to play into January. Lastly, we know that Drew Brees is capable of keeping this game close at home, so Cam will not have a chance to take his foot off the gas pedal until the clock expires.
Tom Brady (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $7,700). Probably the chalk selection of the week after a 32.64-point romp in his season debut last Sunday against the Browns, Tom Brady should continue to roll this weekend against the Bengals. Cincinnati has not given up a lot of yardage through the air (224.6 passing yards per game; 11th in NFL), but only five teams have allowed more passing touchdowns than the Bengals, which bodes well for Brady's fantasy prospects this weekend. Like Cam Newton (above), Brady will be the beneficiary of leading a team with the highest implied team total on the weekend at 28 points. As hefty 8.5-point favorites, we can expect to see the Pats turn to LeGarrette Blount in the second half, but if that happens, it is more than likely that Brady has already collected 25+ fantasy points by that point in time. Brady will have his usual arsenal at his disposal, including Chris Hogan, Julian Edelman, Martellus Bennett, and Rob Gronkowski, a bevy of receivers who will give the Bengals' 17th ranked pass defense (DVOA) fits for 60 minutes on Sunday.
Also eligible: Alex Smith ($5,700)
DeMarco Murray (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $7,700). There is not a player in the league who is seeing more volume than DeMarco Murray this season. Through five games, Murray is averaging almost 24 touches per game, which puts him into the elite stratosphere of LeVeon Bell, in terms of usage in their respective offenses. Bell, of course, is a weekly cash game selection based on his volume and the Steelers' potent offense, yet Murray is often overlooked at a cash game option primary because of the general ineptitude of the Titans' offense. This week, however, should be a different story, as Murray has a prime matchup against a Browns' front seven that has allowed rushing touchdowns in four of their five games this season without yet having faced a RB as talented as Murray. Much of Murray's success can be directly attributed to the Titans' offensive line that has quietly dominated opposing defenses and is arguably the best offensive line in football to this point in the season. Murray will enjoy more of the same in Nashville on Sunday, where the implied gamescript sets up favorably for him, as the Titans are heavy touchdown favorites over the visiting Cody Kessler-led Browns; given the ongoing struggles we have observed with the Titans' passing game, this would appear to be a great spot for continued heavy usage and success for DeMarco Murray, where 25 touches should easily yield 20+ points, a threshold he has not missed all season.
LeSean McCoy (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $6,900). In cash games, it is always advisable to roster running backs who are gamescript-independent, so that they are in the game whether their team is winning or trailing. In today's NFL, those types of three-down running backs are rare, but LeSean McCoy currently fits the mold in the Buffalo Bills' offense. McCoy has thrived in Rex Ryan's offensive scheme this season, rarely yielding playing time to backups Mike Gillislee and/or Reggie Bush. To this point in the season, McCoy has been targeted at least 20 times in every game, a trend that has paid off in the fantasy points scored category, as McCoy is averaging over 20 points per game. McCoy's matchup against the 49ers, who will travel cross-country to play an early game at Ralph Wilson Stadium, is pristine--the Niners have been shredded by opposing running backs, allowing 146.8 rushing yards per game, including a league-high five carries of 20+ yards. Buffalo continues to be without their primary receiving threat, Sammy Watkins, which only adds to the allure of rostering McCoy, who should see heavy usage in this implied positive gamescript (Buffalo is currently a 9-point favorite).
Also eligible: LeVeon Bell ($7,900), Lamar Miller ($6,600)
Michael Thomas (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $4,300). Based on the strength of the matchups available at the quarterback and running back position, you are likely going to want to save salary at the wide receiver position this weekend. There are a number of options, none of whom are guaranteed locks to achieve the 3x multiplier value we seek for cash games on DraftKings, but are in plus situations where hitting that scoring threshold is likely. The first option is rookie Michael Thomas, who has flown under the radar for several weeks now despite seeing heavy usage in the potent Saints' offense. Thomas is leading the Saints in targets with 20 over the past two weeks, a trend that bodes well for his fantasy prospects this weekend as the Saints will try to keep pace with Cam Newton and the Panthers. A deeper examination into those games suggests that Thomas may have seen overflow targets due to tight coverage experienced by WR1 Brandin Cooks (Jason Verrett and Desmond Trufant in back-to-back weeks), but Thomas can reasonably expect to see a return to 6-8 looks he was enjoying prior to those games. That level of implied usage, combined with the likely high-scoring nature of this game and Thomas' redzone prowess (touchdowns in two consecutive weeks), places Michael Thomas squarely into cash game contention on a week where salary restrictions merit looking to save money at the WR position.
Cameron Meredith (Primarily cash games, Salary: $4,100). Making a repeat appearance in "Tips and Picks," Cameron Meredith rewarded those who rostered him with a 30+ point game last week against the Colts. Meredith's salary jumped about $1K this week, but he is still worthy of consideration for cash games because his low salary affords you the ability to pay up at the QB and RB positions, where the matchups are very attractive. Do not, however, expect a repeat performance from Meredith, as he is facing far better coverage in the Jaguars' secondary than he faced last week versus the Colts; the Jags are rested coming off their bye week and will return Prince Amukamara from injury, as well as Aaron Colvin from suspension, both of whom will collectively shore up a Jags' secondary that was already 7th in the league against the pass (DVOA metric). That said, Meredith should continue to enjoy a high snap count as long as Kevin White is on injured reserve and he obviously displayed chemistry with Brian Hoyer last week, so rostering him in cash games makes a lot of sense because he could compile a modest 5-catch for 70-yards stat line and still reach value. It is worth noting that Meredith is a risky GPP play because his ownership levels will be through the roof due to a combination of his salary and recency bias; given the tougher matchup he will face this Sunday, there is sufficient reason to consider lowering your exposure to him in tournament formats.
Jimmy Graham (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $4,900). Coming off an inaugural season with the Seahawks that saw Jimmy Graham disappoint the entire fantasy community, it is no surprise that Graham has gone largely unrostered in DFS circles in 2016. That trend is about to change, however, as the big tight end has now logged back-to-back 100+ yard games and has a solid matchup at home against the Falcons this Sunday. There are concerns, however, about the weather, particularly with residual winds from Typhoon Songda reaching 20+ MPH; that said, one might argue that those winds could support an increased role for Graham, as deeper passing to downfield receivers might be affected by the winds, while underneath routes should still be open. The most attractive part of rostering Graham, however, is the matchup--the Falcons have allowed opposing tight ends to score reach the endzone in every game they have played this season. Lastly, despite the Vegas total on this game trending downward over the course of the week, the Seahawks' implied team total continues to hover right around 25.5 points, which suggests that this offense is squarely in play despite the adverse weather narrative that is pervasive amongst DFS conversations across the industry.
Martellus Bennett (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $4,500). Coming off a stellar 3-touchdown effort against the Browns last week, Martellus Bennett is still too cheap at only $4.5K on DraftKings. Bennett is quickly assuming the Aaron Hernandez role in this Patriots' offense, a role that resulted in some gaudy numbers for Hernandez prior to the demise of his personal life. Bennett will continue to be heavily used in New England's offensive schemes, particularly because the Pats do not have a uber-talented receiver at the WR position; sure, Julian Edelman is an excellent possession receiver, but Danny Amendola is rapidly fading and Chris Hogan has not surpassed 500 receiving yards in any of his three full seasons in the NFL. Certainly, Rob Gronkowski is a premier receiver, but there are questions abound about his status for Sunday after being limited with a hamstring issue on Wednesday/Thursday and then missing practice altogether on Friday with an undisclosed illness. Meanwhile, Bennett is largely healthy and on fire entering this week's matchup against the Bengals. He has scored 19.2 points or more in three of his previous four games, including 25.4 points against Miami and 30.7 points versus Cleveland last week; at only $4.5K, Bennett is being offered as a price point that is at least $1K than it should be, based on his usage in this potent Patriots' offense.
Also eligible: C.J. Uzomah ($2,500)
Bills (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $3,700). Returning home and riding a three-game winning streak, the Buffalo Bills have a great matchup against the San Francisco 49ers, who will be starting Colin Kaepernick to try to rejuvenate their non-existent offense. The Niners have gone winless since their home opener that saw them shellac the Rams, 28-0; since then, San Francisco has lost four straight and announced earlier this week that Kaepernick would replace Blaine Gabbert as their starting quarterback. To expect Kaepernick to fix the Niners' offensive woes would be ridiculous, as Kaepernick was relegated to the sidelines by Chip Kelly in favor of none other than Blaine Gabbert, a career 55% passer whose touchdown-to-interception ratio entering this season was ~ 1.0. That, alone, tells us what Kelly thinks of Kaepernick and his ability to run his offense; if we take into account the weakness at receiver (Jeremy Kerley is San Francisco's WR1 at the moment), this looks to be a tough spot for the Niners to turn anything around in Buffalo after traveling cross-country for a 1 PM (EST) game.
Patriots (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $3,200). The Patriots are another team who are riding high after a big Week #5 victory. This week, Tom Brady will make his 2016 home debut in front of an excited Foxborough contingent who will be riled up to see the Pats pummel the visiting Bengals. While most attention will be squarely on Brady and the offense, it is the Pats' defense that has kept them in games and allowed them to enter this week with a 4-1 record despite missing Brady for their first four games. Over the past three weeks, the Pats have allowed 29 points (9.3 points per game) to their opponents and have scored double-digit fantasy points in two of those games. They will play host to a Bengals' offense that has demonstrated an inability to score this season, averaging only 18.4 points per game (24th in NFL) against far lesser caliber defenses than the one they will face this Sunday. The Pats have been stellar against the rush, which could eliminate Jeremy Hill from the gameplan for the second time in as many weeks; if that happens, we could see a repeat performance from the Bengals' offense, similar to what we saw last week against the Cowboys, where they scored two meaningless touchdowns late in garbage time.
Drew Brees (Salary: $7,900). If you believe that Cam Newton is in store for a solid day in New Orleans, it is more than likely that Drew Brees will do the same. Over the course of his storied 16-year career, Brees has demonstrated a remarkable ability to perform in his home stadium, including a 313-yard and 27.7-fantasy point per game average since arriving in New Orleans over ten years ago. This weekend, Brees will face off against a Panthers' defensive unit that is just not the same since Josh Norman left for Washington in the off-season. Entering this week, Carolina has been tough against the run (6th in NFL, DVOA), allowing a sparse 3.4 yards per carry, but have the league's 22nd-ranked DVOA pass defense, which has yielded a lofty 8.4-passing yards per attempt this season (4th-worst in NFL). That bodes well for Brees and his stable of receivers, who should easily accumulate 300+ passing yards in this matchup. The attractive part of rostering Brees here is that he should be lower-owned than both Cam Newton and Tom Brady, who are similarly priced, but whose primary receivers are more well-defined (Kelvin Benjamin and Julian Edelman, respectively); in New Orleans, it is difficult to nail down who Brees will be looking to target on any given week, which frustrates DFS players who rostered Brandin Cooks when it was Willie Snead who saw all the looks (and vice-versa). For these reasons, Brees will be lower-owned than he should be, despite being almost guaranteed for 300-passing yards and the 3-point bonus that accompanies it. So do not be afraid to take a chance on stacking Brees with one (or more) of his receivers on Sunday because the perfect combination of upside, matchup, and ownership necessary to win DFS tournaments is there for the taking.
Case Keenum (Salary: $5,000). A leverage play, Case Keenum will confer roster uniqueness to your GPP entry simply because of his salary. The only logical pairing for a Case Keenum stack is the speedy Tavon Austin, who will give the Lions' Quandre Diggs (ranked 105 out of 116 coverage cornerbacks by ProFootballFocus) fits on Sunday. This QB-WR combination will cost you a total of $8.9K, which will leave well over $40K to complete your roster, meaning that you can spend up at multiple positions, including WR, to make your roster very unique without the opportunity cost being too high. Keenum is not a high-ceiling QB, but he does not have to be at the site minimum salary; Keenum only needs 250+ yards and a pair of passing touchdowns to get to 4x value, something he did a few weeks ago against Arizona. His matchup is sublime against the league's 31st-ranked DVOA pass defense, the Detroit Lions, who have allowed a litany of passing touchdowns this season (14; worst in NFL). To be fair, the Rams are likely going to try to beat the Lions with Todd Gurley rather than through the air with Keenum's arm, particularly in light of the fact that the Lions are equally dreadful against the run (4.9 yards per carry; 31st in NFL), but if the Lions jump out to an early lead, the Rams may not have a choice in how they attack this terrible Lions' defense. Coming off a week that saw Tavon Austin get 13 touches, this affordable upside $8.9K stack could pay major dividends at the most minimal of costs.
Ezekiel Elliott (Salary: $7,000). The ownership levels on Ezekiel Elliot continue to be bafflingly-low considering what we have seen this rookie running back do behind the Cowboys' offensive line this season. Elliott enters this week's matchup against the Packers with a 5.0-yards per carry average and five touchdowns, including three consecutive 100+ yard rushing performances. Despite this ridiculous stat line and his heavy usage in the Cowboys' offense, Elliott is still going to be less than 5% owned in tournaments because of the reputation the Packers' rushing defense carries into this game. The Packers have been downright stingy against the run this season, allowing only 2.0 yards per carry and less than 50 rushing yards per game, but a closer look into their opponents indicates that their stellar performance could be attributed to a general lack of talent that has opposed them; through four games, the Packers have faced T.J. Yeldon, Bobby Rainey/Orleans Darkwa/Paul Perkins, Theo Riddick/Dwayne Washington, and a half-game of Adrian Peterson, not necessarily a "who's who" of NFL running backs. Certainly, an argument could be made to target the Cowboys' passing game against the Packers, who are reeling in the absence of Sam Shields and Casey Hayward, but the Cowboys' strength on offense lies in Elliott, particularly with Dez Bryant likely to miss this game with a knee injury. With that in mind, expect Jason Garrett to give the Packers a heavy dose of Elliott behind that monstrous offensive line while trying to win the time of possession game and keep Aaron Rodgers off the field in Lambeau, all of which favors a big fantasy day for Elliott at low ownership once again.
Darren Sproles (Salary: $4,400). The entire world believes that Ryan Mathews is the feature back in the Eagles' offense, yet Darren Sproles has outsnapped Mathews in every single game this season. Both running backs have a stellar matchup against the Redskins this weekend, as Washington has been gashed by the run this season, allowing 5.1 yards per carry and eight rushing touchdowns, which ranks them dead-last in both categories. Sproles is priced $500 cheaper than Mathews and will be lesser-owned despite having similar upside against the Redskins in this NFC East showdown. As discussed above, creating roster uniqueness via spending less at the RB position is one way to try to gain an advantage on the masses in large-field GPP's and Sproles' $4.4K salary will enable that type of game strategy to be employed. If he reaches the endzone, Sproles has an excellent chance at achieving the 4x value you will be looking for when rostering him at his modest salary. Adding to the allure of Sproles is the fact that Ryan Mathews missed practice on Friday due to an illness, which could lead to even more opportunity for Sproles if Mathews is not fully recovered by Sunday.
Odell Beckham Jr. (Salary: $8,800). Rostering high-dollar receivers who deliver is going to be the recipe that wins tournaments on DraftKings this weekend. Certainly, there is merit to rolling with the higher priced running backs because of their matchups, but their perceived ownership levels lessen their appeal. By starting one's GPP roster with Odell Beckham Jr. and his elevated (but not unreasonable) $8.8K salary, it will force you to consider players at other positions who are not on a majority of the masses' GPP lineups. And Beckham is a very reasonable GPP play, as he will face a Ravens' defense that has funneled action towards the pass due to their ability to stop the run; through five games, the Ravens boast the league's best DVOA rush defense, but have given up big days to opposing receivers, including a huge three-touchdown game to Michael Crabtree a few weeks ago. Much of their weakness in defending the pass is due to Jimmy Smith and Shareece Wright, who rank 82nd and 89th out of 116 qualifying cornerbacks in coverage this season (ProFootballFocus); Beckham should see either one of those cornerbacks in coverage almost all day, as Sterling Shepard is running most of his routes from the slot, where the Ravens' best coverage CB (Jerraud Powers) lines up almost 100% of the time. Despite catching his first touchdown pass of the season late in last week's Sunday night game, Beckham is still dragging behind his peers with respect to scoring based on his volume in the Giants' offense; at some point he is going to log multiple scores and this matchup could not be better suited to see that happen.
Allen Robinson (Salary: $7,800). Allen Robinson has double-digit targets in every game this season where he was not being shadowed by shut-down cornerback, Jason Verrett. Rested and coming off a bye week, he should remain the focal point of the Jaguars' offense, an offense that has not established a running game all season (75.2 rushing yards per game; 30th in NFL). Robinson will line up across from a Bears' secondary that is banged up and coming off a week where we saw T.Y. Hilton gouge them for a very efficient 10/171/1 stat line on 11 targets. This week, it gets no better for the Bears, as both of their primary cornerbacks, Bryce Callahan and Tracy Porter, are questionable entering Sunday's matchup against Robinson; Callahan got in a limited practice on Friday, but Porter missed practice after taking the field on Thursday, a sign that he will not play on Sunday. If those cornerbacks are limited and/or not playing, Robinson will have his way with their respective backups and should do so with a lot of volume and potential upside. His allure as a GPP option is further increased when one takes into account his likely low ownership due to his hefty price tag and position.
Dennis Pitta (Salary: $4,300). With Steve Smith missing this week's matchup against the Giants, Dennis Pitta should step into a volume-based role in his absence. When Smith left last week's game early with a knee injury, Pitta received eight targets, pulling in seven of them for a total of 59 receiving yards. There could be questions concerning how new Offensive Coordinator Marty Mornhinweg will incorporate Pitta into his offensive scheme, but it is difficult to envision a scenario where Pitta is not heavily used in Smith's absence; Pitta is a savvy veteran with good hands and an established rapport with Joe Flacco that should enable the Ravens to move the sticks, not to mention provide a big target when in the redzone. Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of rostering Pitta for GPP's is the fact that he has the third most targets this season, but still has not managed to score a touchdown, which implies that he is well overdue for some positive regression in that category. The matchup against the Giants is a good one, as the Giants were terrible against the tight end position last season and have been bested by several tight ends already this season. At only $200 less than Martellus Bennett, Pitta is going to go largely overlooked in tournament play due to his price point and recency bias, but he is an elite, high-upside option at the tight end position in this matchup.
Jason Witten (Salary: $4,200). Speaking of tight ends who are highly targeted but have yet to score a touchdown, Jason Witten is another GPP option who is due for positive regression in the touchdown category. Of the top eight targeted tight ends, only Witten (and Dennis Pitta) have yet to score a touchdown; worse yet, every other tight end in that group has at least two touchdowns. Witten continues to be the most highly targeted receiver on the Cowboys due to Dez Bryant's knee injury, which keeps him squarely in play for DFS purposes because his salary rarely exceeds $4K on DraftKings. This week, Witten will square off against a Packers' defensive backfield that is amongst the worst in the league and who started off the season yielding touchdowns to the tight end position in back-to-back games. While the Cowboys will do everything they can to keep this game close and cram Ezekiel Elliott down the throats of the Packers, one could easily imagine Aaron Rodgers picking apart the Cowboys' secondary, building a lead, and forcing the Cowboys to lean on rookie Dak Prescott to keep the game close; if that scenario were to occur, Jason Witten should be the primary benefactor at sub-5% ownership levels.
Also eligible: Richard Rodgers (Salary: $2,900).
Seahawks (Salary: $3,600). Looking sheerly at the statistics, there is no better offense in the league entering Week #6 than the Atlanta Falcons. So it would seem inappropriate to roster a defense against such a strong offense...but that is what makes the Seahawks an intriguing GPP defense because they will be lower-owned than they should be. With four consecutive victories, including convincing back-to-back wins against last year's Super Bowl teams, the Falcons enter this week's matchup against the Seahawks on a roll. The Seahawks, however, are rested coming off a bye week and will be playing at home, where the deafening noise of the crowd and dramatically affect the ability of opposing quarterbacks to call signals at the line of scrimmage. Matt Ryan has been terrible this season when under pressure, completing less than half of his passes and getting sacked nearly 20% of the time; we might expect something similar this Sunday when shutdown cornerback, Richard Sherman, shadows Julio Jones, leaving the likes of Mohamed Sanu and Jacob Tamme to beat the Seattle defense. One more intriguing factor is that forecasts are calling for 20+ MPH winds in this game, which could negatively affect the passing game, forcing teams to become more one-dimensional and predictable, as a result.
Bears (Salary: $2,300). The essence of a GPP defense, the Chicago Bears are the type of DFS play that can generate 5x value on their salary and/or yield almost no positive fantasy points. The reason the Bears are attractive GPP candidates is several-fold: First, they are extremely inexpensive at only $2.3K, which helps flexibility at other roster spots. Next, the Jaguars are largely one-dimensional in that they have not displayed an ability to run the ball all season; they enter Week #6 with the league's 30th ranked rushing attack that is averaging only 75.2 yards per game. Lastly, the Bears are playing at home, where they held the Lions to a pair of field goals until late in the game just two weeks ago.
Also eligible: Lions ($3,000), Texans (Salary: $2,900).