Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Pass | Run | Defense |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New England | Cleveland | -10.5 | 46.5 | 28.5 | +++ | +++ | ++ |
Carolina | Tampa Bay | -6 | 50 | 28 | +++ | ++ | |
Pittsburgh | NY Jets | -7 | 48.5 | 27.75 | +++ | +++ | |
Green Bay | NY Giants | -7 | 48 | 27.5 | ++ | +++ | |
Oakland | San Diego | -4 | 50 | 27 | ++ | ++ | |
Denver | Atlanta | -5.5 | 47.5 | 26.5 | ++ | ++ | |
Indianapolis | Chicago | -4.5 | 47.5 | 26 | ++ | ++ | |
Philadelphia | Detroit | -3 | 46 | 24.5 | + | + | |
Baltimore | Washington | -3.5 | 45 | 24.25 | + | + | |
Arizona | San Francisco | -4 | 43 | 23.5 | + | ||
Miami | Tennessee | -3.5 | 43.5 | 23.5 | |||
Cincinnati | Dallas | -1 | 45.5 | 23.25 | |||
San Diego | Oakland | 4 | 50 | 23 | |||
Minnesota | Houston | -6 | 40 | 23 | + | +++ | |
Dallas | Cincinnati | 1 | 45.5 | 22.25 | |||
Tampa Bay | Carolina | 6 | 50 | 22 | |||
Chicago | Indianapolis | 4.5 | 47.5 | 21.5 | |||
Detroit | Philadelphia | 3 | 46 | 21.5 | |||
Los Angeles | Buffalo | -3.5 | 39.5 | 21.5 | ++ | ||
Atlanta | Denver | 5.5 | 47.5 | 21 | |||
NY Jets | Pittsburgh | 7 | 48.5 | 20.75 | + | ||
Washington | Baltimore | 3.5 | 45 | 20.75 | |||
NY Giants | Green Bay | 7 | 48 | 20.5 | + | ||
Tennessee | Miami | 3.5 | 43.5 | 20 | |||
San Francisco | Arizona | 4 | 43 | 19.5 | |||
Buffalo | Los Angeles | 3.5 | 39.5 | 18 | |||
Cleveland | New England | 10.5 | 46.5 | 18 | |||
Houston | Minnesota | 6 | 40 | 17 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Cam Newton (Panthers), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers)
- Running Back: LeGarrette Blount (Patriots), LeVeon Bell (Steelers), Eddie Lacy (Packers)
- Receivers: Julian Edelman/Chris Hogan/Rob Gronkowski/Martellus Bennett (Patriots), Kelvin Benjamin/Corey Brown/Ted Ginn Jr/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Antonio Brown/Sammie Coates Jr/Jesse James (Steelers)
- Defense: Minnesota
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Derek Carr (Raiders), Trevor Siemian (Broncos), Andrew Luck (Colts)
- Running Back: Cameron Artis-Payne/Fozzy Whittaker (Panthers), Latavius Murray/DeAndre Washington (Raiders), C.J. Anderson (Broncos), Frank Gore (Colts)
- Receivers: Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb/Davante Adams (Packers), Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree/Seth Roberts/Clive Walford (Raiders), Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders (Broncos), T.Y. Hilton/Phillip Dorsett/Dwayne Allen/Jack Doyle (Colts)
- Defense: New England, Los Angeles
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Carson Wentz (Eagles), Joe Flacco (Ravens), Ryan Fitzpatrick (Jets), Eli Manning (Giants)
- Running Back: Ryan Mathews/Wendell Smallwood (Eagles), Terrance West/Kenneth Dixon (Ravens), Jerrick McKinnon (Vikings)
- Receivers: Jordan Matthews/Nelson Agholor/Zach Ertz (Eagles), Steve Smith/Mike Wallace/Dennis Pitta (Ravens), Brandon Marshall/Quincy Enunwa/Robby Anderson (Jets), Odell Beckham Jr/Sterling Shepard/Victor Cruz (Giants)
- Defense: Arizona