Vegas Value Chart: Week 5

An early Vegas-based snapshot of the teams and positions to target in this week's DFS game slate.

Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week.  Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week.  Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves.  Let's take a look.

TeamOpponentOddsGame TotalTeam TotalPassRunDefense
New England Cleveland -10.5 46.5 28.5 +++ +++ ++
Carolina Tampa Bay -6 50 28 +++ ++  
Pittsburgh NY Jets -7 48.5 27.75 +++ +++  
Green Bay NY Giants -7 48 27.5 ++ +++  
Oakland San Diego -4 50 27 ++ ++  
Denver Atlanta -5.5 47.5 26.5 ++ ++  
Indianapolis Chicago -4.5 47.5 26 ++ ++  
Philadelphia Detroit -3 46 24.5 + +  
Baltimore Washington -3.5 45 24.25 + +  
Arizona San Francisco -4 43 23.5     +
Miami Tennessee -3.5 43.5 23.5      
Cincinnati Dallas -1 45.5 23.25      
San Diego Oakland 4 50 23      
Minnesota Houston -6 40 23   + +++
Dallas Cincinnati 1 45.5 22.25      
Tampa Bay Carolina 6 50 22      
Chicago Indianapolis 4.5 47.5 21.5      
Detroit Philadelphia 3 46 21.5      
Los Angeles Buffalo -3.5 39.5 21.5     ++
Atlanta Denver 5.5 47.5 21      
NY Jets Pittsburgh 7 48.5 20.75 +    
Washington Baltimore 3.5 45 20.75      
NY Giants Green Bay 7 48 20.5 +    
Tennessee Miami 3.5 43.5 20      
San Francisco Arizona 4 43 19.5      
Buffalo Los Angeles 3.5 39.5 18      
Cleveland New England 10.5 46.5 18      
Houston Minnesota 6 40 17      

 

SUMMARY

3-STARS

2-STARS

1-STAR