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Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Atlanta | New Orleans | -6.5 | 56 | 31.25 | +++ | +++ | |
New England | Miami | -9.5 | 44.5 | 27 | ++ | +++ | ++ |
Seattle | San Francisco | -10 | 43.5 | 26.75 | ++ | +++ | +++ |
Tampa Bay | Carolina | -6 | 46.5 | 26.25 | ++ | ++ | |
Washington | NY Giants | -8 | 44 | 26 | ++ | ++ | + |
Indianapolis | Jacksonville | -4.5 | 47 | 25.75 | + | + | |
Green Bay | Detroit | -3 | 48 | 25.5 | + | + | |
Kansas City | San Diego | -6 | 45 | 25.5 | + | + | |
Pittsburgh | Cleveland | -6 | 44 | 25 | + | + | + |
New Orleans | Atlanta | 6.5 | 56 | 24.75 | ++ | + | |
Philadelphia | Dallas | -4 | 43.5 | 23.75 | |||
Arizona | Los Angeles | -6 | 41 | 23.5 | ++ | ||
Minnesota | Chicago | -5.5 | 41 | 23.25 | ++ | ||
Buffalo | NY Jets | -3.5 | 42 | 22.75 | |||
Detroit | Green Bay | 3 | 48 | 22.5 | |||
Tennessee | Houston | -3 | 40.5 | 21.75 | + | ||
Cincinnati | Baltimore | -2.5 | 41 | 21.75 | |||
Jacksonville | Indianapolis | 4.5 | 47 | 21.25 | |||
Denver | Oakland | -1 | 40.5 | 20.75 | |||
Carolina | Tampa Bay | 6 | 46.5 | 20.25 | |||
Dallas | Philadelphia | 4 | 43.5 | 19.75 | |||
Oakland | Denver | 1 | 40.5 | 19.75 | |||
San Diego | Kansas City | 6 | 45 | 19.5 | |||
Baltimore | Cincinnati | 2.5 | 41 | 19.25 | |||
NY Jets | Buffalo | 3.5 | 42 | 19.25 | |||
Cleveland | Pittsburgh | 6 | 44 | 19 | |||
Houston | Tennessee | 3 | 40.5 | 18.75 | |||
NY Giants | Washington | 8 | 44 | 18 | |||
Chicago | Minnesota | 5.5 | 41 | 17.75 | |||
Miami | New England | 9.5 | 44.5 | 17.5 | |||
Los Angeles | Arizona | 6 | 41 | 17.5 | |||
San Francisco | Seattle | 10 | 43.5 | 16.75 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Matt Ryan (Falcons)
- Running Back: Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman (Falcons), LeGarrette Blount (Patriots), Thomas Rawls (Seahawks)
- Receivers: Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu/Taylor Gabriel (Falcons)
- Defense: Broncos
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Jameis Winston (Buccaneers), Kirk Cousins (Redskins), Drew Brees (Saints) Andy Dalton (Bengals), Aaron Rodgers (Packers)
- Running Back: Doug Martin/Charles Sims (Buccaneers), Rob Kelley (Redskins)
- Receivers: Julian Edelman/Malcolm Mitchell/Martellus Bennett (Patriots), Doug Baldwin/Jermaine Kearse/Jimmy Graham (Seahawks), Mike Evans/Adam Humphries/Cameron Brate (Buccaneers), DeSean Jackson/Pierre Garcon/Jamison Crowder/Jordan Reed (Redskins), Brandin Cooks/Michael Thomas/Willie Snead (Saints)
- Defense: Patriots, Cardinals, Vikings
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Andrew Luck (Colts), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Alex Smith (Chiefs), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers)
- Running Back: Frank Gore (Colts), Ty Montgomery (Packers), Spencer Ware (Chiefs), LeVeon Bell (Steelers), Mark Ingram/Tim Hightower (Saints)
- Receivers: T.Y. Hilton/Donte Moncrief/Phillip Dorsett/Jack Doyle (Colts), Jordy Nelson/Davante Adams/Randall Cobb (Packers), Jeremy Maclin/Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Antonio Brown/Eli Rogers/Ladarius Green (Steelers)
- Defense: Redskins, Steelers, Titans