Vegas Value Chart: Week 16

An early Vegas-based snapshot of the teams and positions to target in this week's DFS game slate.

Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week.  Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week.  Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves.  Let's take a look.

TeamOpponentOddsGame TotalTeam TotalPassingRunningTeam Defense
New England NY Jets -16.5 43.5 30 +++ +++ +++
Oakland Indianapolis -3.5 53 28.25 +++ +++  
New Orleans Tampa Bay -3 52.5 27.75 +++ ++  
Atlanta Carolina -2.5 51.5 27 ++ ++  
Dallas Detroit -7 44.5 25.75 ++ +++ +
Seattle Arizona -8 43 25.5 ++ ++ ++
Green Bay Minnesota -7 43 25 + ++ +
Washington Chicago -3 46.5 24.75 + +  
Tampa Bay New Orleans 3 52.5 24.75 + +  
San Diego Cleveland -6 43.5 24.75 + ++ +
Indianapolis Oakland 3.5 53 24.75 + +  
Pittsburgh Baltimore -5 44.5 24.75 + +  
Carolina Atlanta 2.5 51.5 24.5 + +  
Tennessee Jacksonville -5 43.5 24.25 + +  
Buffalo Miami -3.5 41.5 22.5      
NY Giants Philadelphia -3 41.5 22.25      
Chicago Washington 3 46.5 21.75      
Los Angeles San Francisco -3.5 40 21.75     +
Houston Cincinnati -1 41 21      
Kansas City Denver -3.5 38 20.75     ++
Cincinnati Houston 1 41 20      
Baltimore Pittsburgh 5 44.5 19.75      
Philadelphia NY Giants 3 41.5 19.25      
Jacksonville Tennessee 5 43.5 19.25      
Miami Buffalo 3.5 41.5 19      
Detroit Dallas 7 44.5 18.75      
Cleveland San Diego 6 43.5 18.75      
San Francisco Los Angeles 3.5 40 18.25      
Minnesota Green Bay 7 43 18      
Arizona Seattle 8 43 17.5      
Denver Kansas City 3.5 38 17.25      
NY Jets New England 16.5 43.5 13.5      


SUMMARY

3-STARS

2-STARS

1-STAR