Vegas Value Chart: Week 14

An early Vegas-based snapshot of the teams and positions to target in this week's DFS game slate.

Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week.  Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week.  Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves.  Let's take a look.

TeamOpponentOddsGame TotalTeam TotalPassingRunningTeam Defense
Tampa Bay New Orleans -3 51 27 ++ ++  
Indianapolis Houston -5.5 47 26.25 ++ ++  
New England Baltimore -7 45.5 26.25 ++ ++ +
Atlanta Los Angeles -6 45 25.5 + ++ +
Dallas NY Giants -3.5 47.5 25.5 + +  
Detroit Chicago -7.5 43.5 25.5 + ++ ++
Seattle Green Bay -3 46.5 24.75 + +  
Kansas City Oakland -4 45.5 24.75 + +  
Carolina San Diego -1 48.5 24.75 + +  
Cincinnati Cleveland -5.5 43 24.25 + + +
Pittsburgh Buffalo -1.5 47 24.25 + +  
New Orleans Tampa Bay 3 51 24 + +  
San Diego Carolina 1 48.5 23.75      
San Francisco NY Jets -3 44.5 23.75      
Washington Philadelphia 0 46.5 23.25      
Philadelphia Washington 0 46.5 23.25      
Buffalo Pittsburgh 1.5 47 22.75      
Tennessee Denver -1 43.5 22.25      
Miami Arizona -1 43.5 22.25      
NY Giants Dallas 3.5 47.5 22      
Green Bay Seattle 3 46.5 21.75      
Denver Tennessee 1 43.5 21.25      
Arizona Miami 1 43.5 21.25      
Minnesota Jacksonville -3.5 39 21.25     +++
Oakland Kansas City 4 45.5 20.75      
Houston Indianapolis 5.5 47 20.75      
NY Jets San Francisco 3 44.5 20.75      
Los Angeles Atlanta 6 45 19.5      
Baltimore New England 7 45.5 19.25      
Cleveland Cincinnati 5.5 43 18.75      
Chicago Detroit 7.5 43.5 18      
Jacksonville Minnesota 3.5 39 17.75      


SUMMARY

3-STARS

  • Quarterback: None
  • Running Back: None
  • Receivers: None
  • Defense: Vikings

2-STARS

1-STAR