Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Pass | Run | Defense |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orleans | Detroit | -6 | 53.5 | 29.75 | +++ | +++ | |
New England | Los Angeles | -13 | 44.5 | 28.75 | +++ | +++ | +++ |
Pittsburgh | NY Giants | -6 | 49 | 27.5 | ++ | +++ | |
Atlanta | Kansas City | -3.5 | 49 | 26.25 | ++ | ++ | |
Oakland | Buffalo | -3 | 49.5 | 26.25 | ++ | ++ | |
Arizona | Washington | -3 | 49.5 | 26.25 | ++ | ++ | |
Indianapolis | NY Jets | -2.5 | 49.5 | 26 | ++ | ++ | |
Green Bay | Houston | -6.5 | 45.5 | 26 | + | ++ | + |
San Diego | Tampa Bay | -4 | 47.5 | 25.75 | + | + | + |
Seattle | Carolina | -6.5 | 44.5 | 25.5 | + | + | |
Dallas | Minnesota | -3.5 | 44 | 23.75 | |||
Detroit | New Orleans | 6 | 53.5 | 23.75 | |||
NY Jets | Indianapolis | 2.5 | 49.5 | 23.5 | |||
Denver | Jacksonville | -5 | 41.5 | 23.25 | ++ | ||
Buffalo | Oakland | 3 | 49.5 | 23.25 | |||
Washington | Arizona | 3 | 49.5 | 23.25 | |||
Kansas City | Atlanta | 3.5 | 49 | 22.75 | |||
Chicago | San Francisco | -2 | 43.5 | 22.75 | |||
Baltimore | Miami | -3.5 | 40.5 | 22 | ++ | ||
Tampa Bay | San Diego | 4 | 47.5 | 21.75 | |||
Philadelphia | Cincinnati | -1 | 42 | 21.5 | |||
NY Giants | Pittsburgh | 6 | 49 | 21.5 | |||
San Francisco | Chicago | 2 | 43.5 | 20.75 | |||
Cincinnati | Philadelphia | 1 | 42 | 20.5 | |||
Minnesota | Dallas | 3.5 | 44 | 20.25 | |||
Houston | Green Bay | 6.5 | 45.5 | 19.5 | |||
Carolina | Seattle | 6.5 | 44.5 | 19 | |||
Miami | Baltimore | 3.5 | 40.5 | 18.5 | |||
Jacksonville | Denver | 5 | 41.5 | 18.25 | |||
Los Angeles | New England | 13 | 44.5 | 15.75 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints), Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Running Back: Mark Ingram/Tim Hightower (Saints), LeGarrette Blount/James White/Dion Lewis (Patriots), LeVeon Bell (Steelers)
- Receivers: Michael Thomas/Brandin Cooks/Willie Snead (Saints), Julian Edelman/Chris Hogan/Martellus Bennett (Patriots)
- Defense: Patriots
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Matt Ryan (Falcons), Derek Carr (Raiders), Carson Palmer (Cardinals), Andrew Luck (Colts)
- Running Back: Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman (Falcons), Latavius Murray (Raiders), David Johnson (Cardinals), Frank Gore (Colts), James Starks (Packers)
- Receivers: Antonio Brown/Eli Rogers/Ladarius Green (Steelers), Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu/Taylor Gabriel/Austin Hooper (Falcons), Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree/Seth Roberts (Raiders), Larry Fitzgerald/John Brown/J.J. Nelson (Cardinals), T.Y. Hilton/Donte Moncrief/Dwayne Allen/Jack Doyle (Colts)
- Defense: Broncos, Ravens
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Philip Rivers (Chargers), Russell Wilson (Seahawks)
- Running Back: Melvin Gordon (Chargers), Thomas Rawls (Seahawks)
- Receivers: Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb/Davante Adams/Jared Cook (Packers), Tyrell Williams/Travis Benjamin/Dontrelle Inman/Antonio Gates/Hunter Henry (Chargers), Doug Baldwin/Jermaine Kearse/Jimmy Graham (Seahawks)
- Defense: Packers, Chargers