Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Odds | Total | Team Total | Running | Passing | Defense |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dallas | Washington | -7 | 51 | 29 | +++ | +++ | |
Pittsburgh | Indianapolis | -9 | 47.5 | 28.25 | +++ | +++ | |
New England | NY Jets | -8 | 47 | 27.5 | +++ | ++ | |
Atlanta | Arizona | -4.5 | 50.5 | 27.5 | ++ | ++ | |
Miami | San Francisco | -8 | 45.5 | 26.75 | +++ | ++ | + |
New Orleans | Los Angeles | -7.5 | 45.5 | 26.5 | ++ | ++ | |
Buffalo | Jacksonville | -7 | 45.5 | 26.25 | ++ | ++ | |
Oakland | Carolina | -3.5 | 49 | 26.25 | + | ++ | |
Philadelphia | Green Bay | -3.5 | 47.5 | 25.5 | + | + | |
NY Giants | Cleveland | -6.5 | 44 | 25.25 | + | + | + |
Seattle | Tampa Bay | -5.5 | 45 | 25.25 | + | + | |
Tennessee | Chicago | -4 | 43 | 23.5 | |||
Houston | San Diego | -1 | 46 | 23.5 | |||
Arizona | Atlanta | 4.5 | 50.5 | 23 | |||
Carolina | Oakland | 3.5 | 49 | 22.75 | |||
Detroit | Minnesota | -2.5 | 43 | 22.75 | |||
San Diego | Houston | 1 | 46 | 22.5 | |||
Baltimore | Cincinnati | -4.5 | 40.5 | 22.5 | ++ | ||
Washington | Dallas | 7 | 51 | 22 | |||
Green Bay | Philadelphia | 3.5 | 47.5 | 22 | |||
Denver | Kansas City | -3.5 | 39.5 | 21.5 | ++ | ||
Minnesota | Detroit | 2.5 | 43 | 20.25 | |||
Tampa Bay | Seattle | 5.5 | 45 | 19.75 | |||
Chicago | Tennessee | 4 | 43 | 19.5 | |||
NY Jets | New England | 8 | 47 | 19.5 | |||
Jacksonville | Buffalo | 7 | 45.5 | 19.25 | |||
Indianapolis | Pittsburgh | 9 | 47.5 | 19.25 | |||
Los Angeles | New Orleans | 7.5 | 45.5 | 19 | |||
San Francisco | Miami | 8 | 45.5 | 18.75 | |||
Cleveland | NY Giants | 6.5 | 44 | 18.75 | |||
Cincinnati | Baltimore | 4.5 | 40.5 | 18 | |||
Kansas City | Denver | 3.5 | 39.5 | 18 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers)
- Running Back: Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys), LeVeon Bell (Steelers), LeGarrette Blount (Patriots), Jay Ajayi (Dolphins)
- Receivers: Dez Bryant/Cole Beasley/Jason Witten (Cowboys), Antonio Brown/Eli Rogers/Ladarius Green (Steelers)
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Matt Ryan (Falcons), Ryan Tannehill (Dolphins), Drew Brees (Saints), Tyrod Taylor (Bills), Derek Carr (Raiders)
- Running Back: Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman (Falcons), Mark Ingram/Tim Hightower (Saints), LeSean McCoy (Bills)
- Receivers: Julian Edelman/Chris Hogan/Martellus Bennett (Patriots), Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu/Austin Hooper (Falcons), Jarvis Landry/Devante Parker/Kenny Stills (Dolphins), Michael Thomas/Brandin Cooks/Willie Snead (Saints), Marquise Goodwin/Percy Harvin/Charles Clay (Bills), Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree/Seth Roberts (Raiders)
- Defense: Ravens, Broncos
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Carson Wentz (Eagles), Eli Manning (Giants), Russell Wilson (Seahawks)
- Running Back: Latavius Murray (Raiders), Darren Sproles/Ryan Mathews (Eagles), Rashad Jennings (Giants), Thomas Rawls (Seahawks)
- Receivers: Jordan Matthews/Dorial Green-Beckham/Zach Ertz (Eagles), Odell Beckham Jr/Sterling Shepard/Will Tye (Giants), Doug Baldwin/Jermaine Kearse/Jimmy Graham (Seahawks)
- Defense: Dolphins, Giants