Vegas Value Chart: Week 11

An early Vegas-based snapshot of the teams and positions to target in this week's DFS game slate.

Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week.  Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week.  Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves.  Let's take a look.

TeamOpponentOddsGame TotalTeam TotalPassRunDefense
New England San Francisco -13 50.5 31.75 +++ +++ ++
Pittsburgh Cleveland -9 49 29 +++ +++  
Carolina New Orleans -4 51.5 27.75 ++ ++  
Indianapolis Tennessee -3 52.5 27.75 ++ ++  
Detroit Jacksonville -6.5 47 26.75 ++ +++  
Washington Green Bay -3 50.5 26.75 ++ ++  
Dallas Baltimore -7.5 45 26.25 + +++ ++
NY Giants Chicago -6.5 45.5 26 + ++ +
Oakland Houston -5.5 46 25.75 + ++  
Kansas City Tampa Bay -7 44 25.5 + ++ ++
Cincinnati Buffalo -4.5 46.5 25.5 + +  
Seattle Philadelphia -6.5 44.5 25.5 + ++ +
Tennessee Indianapolis 3 52.5 24.75      
New Orleans Carolina 4 51.5 23.75      
Green Bay Washington 3 50.5 23.75      
Buffalo Cincinnati 4.5 46.5 21      
Los Angeles Miami -1 40.5 20.75     +
Arizona Minnesota 0 41 20.5      
Minnesota Arizona 0 41 20.5      
Jacksonville Detroit 6.5 47 20.25      
Houston Oakland 5.5 46 20.25      
Cleveland Pittsburgh 9 49 20      
Miami Los Angeles 1 40.5 19.75      
Chicago NY Giants 6.5 45.5 19.5      
Philadelphia Seattle 6.5 44.5 19      
Baltimore Dallas 7.5 45 18.75      
San Francisco New England 13 50.5 18.75      
Tampa Bay Kansas City 7 44 18.5      


SUMMARY

3-STARS

2-STARS

1-STAR