Vegas Value Chart: Week 1

An early Vegas-based snapshot of the teams and positions to target in this week's DFS game slate.

Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week.  Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week.  Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves.  Let's take a look.

Team Opponent Odds Game Total Team Total Pass Run Defense
Seattle Miami -10.5 44 27.25 ++ +++ +++
Indianapolis Detroit -3.5 51 27.25 ++ ++  
Arizona New England -6 47.5 26.75 ++ ++  
Pittsburgh Washington -3.5 50 26.75 ++ ++  
Green Bay Jacksonville -5 48 26.5 ++ ++  
New Orleans Oakland -1.5 51 26.25 + +  
Kansas City San Diego -7 44.5 25.75 + ++ ++
Atlanta Tampa Bay -3 47.5 25.25 + +  
Oakland New Orleans 1.5 51 24.75 + +  
Houston Chicago -5.5 43.5 24.5 + ++ +
Baltimore Buffalo -3.5 44.5 24      
Detroit Indianapolis 3.5 51 23.75      
Washington Pittsburgh 3.5 50 23.25      
Dallas NY Giants -1 45.5 23.25      
Los Angeles San Francisco -3 43.5 23.25      
Carolina Denver -3.5 41.5 22.5     +
Philadelphia Cleveland -4 41 22.5     ++
NY Giants Dallas 1 45.5 22.25      
Tampa Bay Atlanta 3 47.5 22.25      
Cincinnati NY Jets -2.5 41.5 22     +
Minnesota Tennessee -2.5 41 21.75     +
Jacksonville Green Bay 5 48 21.5      
New England Arizona 6 47.5 20.75 +    
Buffalo Baltimore 3.5 44.5 20.5      
San Francisco Los Angeles 3 43.5 20.25      
NY Jets Cincinnati 2.5 41.5 19.5      
Tennessee Minnesota 2.5 41 19.25      
Chicago Houston 5.5 43.5 19 +    
Denver Carolina 3.5 41.5 19      
San Diego Kansas City 7 44.5 18.75 +    
Cleveland Philadelphia 4 41 18.5      
Miami Seattle 10.5 44 16.75 +    

SUMMARY

3-STARS

2-STARS

1-STAR