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Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Pass | Run | Defense |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta | Green Bay | -5 | 60.5 | 32.75 | +++ | +++ | |
New England | Pittsburgh | -5.5 | 50.5 | 28 | ++ | ++ | + |
Green Bay | Atlanta | 5 | 60.5 | 27.75 | ++ | ++ | |
Pittsburgh | New England | 5.5 | 50.5 | 22.5 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback:Matt Ryan (Falcons)
- Running Back: Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman (Falcons)
- Receivers: Julio Jones/Mohamed Sanu/Taylor Gabriel (Falcons)
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Aaron Rodgers (Packers)
- Running Back: LeGarrette Blount/Dion Lewis (Patriots), Ty Montgomery (Packers)
- Receivers: Julian Edelman/Chris Hogan/Malcolm Mitchell/Martellus Bennett (Patriots), Davante Adams/Randall Cobb/Geronimo Allison/Jared Cook (Packers)
- Defense: None
1-STAR
- Quarterback: None
- Running Back: None
- Receivers: None
- Defense: Patriots