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An Optimal MFL10 Draft, Round by Round

A guided tour through an ideal MFL10 draft for 2016

At present, I’ve participated in 39 MFL10 drafts this season (in addition to a handful of Footballguys mocks), and I plan to jump into at least 15-20 more before September. That’s not the highest volume, nor even close – my current total isn’t among the 100 most active MFL10ers. But it’s a hefty devotion to the trade, and as I’ve done this over the past few years, I’ve developed some ideas on right ways and wrong ways.

They’re not iron-clad, but they’ve served me fairly well. Most importantly, they’re principled and logical, focused heavily on actual fantasy production and lightly on personal projections[1]. They chase fantasy points where the fantasy points really are[2], they help insulate me from bust- and disaster-level dud seasons, and they chase upside while prioritizing it properly.

If you’re new or feel shaky in MFL10s, take a tour through my round-by-round thought process. I’d say I follow this track or a very similar one in roughly 75% of my drafts – perhaps that’s a low rate, but I feel it’s a strong hedge. In essence, I’m eschewing the “best player available” mentality, on the principle that, even if my projections and expectations are reasonably accurate, I’m still likely to largely miss the boat on who the “best players” will be. I don’t want to rely solely on those expectations; I want to build a deep team with strong weekly upside that lowers my chances of falling apart at the seams thanks to a rocky pick or two.

Here’s my general approach:

Rounds 1-5: Binge on wideouts, with neither hesitation nor shame

Objective: To come out of Round 5 with a minimum of four WRs on roster

Why? Well, for a few reasons: