Cracking FanDuel: Week 7

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests.

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches up my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Link to Week 7 Value Chart

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

  • Everything is sorted by position
  • I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
  • The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 7 Price
  • The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher value the better.
  • H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
  • ExpPts = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
  • In the 2016 Cracking FanDuel book, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of Ratio, H-Value, and Expect Team Points at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
  • I have highlighted player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most meet the Criteria and have the best average criteria score. They generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow are additional players that I like this week.

General Thoughts

Situations that stand out to me this week.

  • Injuries have vaulted a lot of cheap options to the forefront. A few injuries are usually good as they can provide salary relief. Many cheap "popular" options though can make a lot of lineups look very similar. I am going on record saying that this is going to be a BIG trap week. And by trap, I am suggesting this is a week that you do not want to be betting a large portion of your bankroll. Here is why: A lot of lineups are going to be on the same low-cost RBs (Jacquizz Rodgers and Mike Gillislee). Then with the savings, everyone will be playing Tom Brady or Matt Ryan. A lot of cash games could end up being decided based on whether you went with TY Hilton, Julio Jones, or AJ Green.
     
  • The absolute lock of the week is RB Jacquizz Rodgers ($5,600). Over the last 3 weeks, the 49ers are yielding the most fantasy points (36.6) to RBs and it's not close. Last week, LeSean McCoy gashed them for 140 rushing yards and 3 TDs on the ground. In week 5, David Johnson combined for 185 yards and 2 scores. In week 4, Ezekiel Elliott hung 157 combined and a TD. In the copycat NFL, teams will go back to the well until a defense shows it can stop it. Tampa Bay is at least an average running team having averaged more than 4 yards a carry and 1.2 rushing TDs per contest. Jacquizz Rodgers is not a name defenses would usually fear, but against the 49ers he may look like Walter Payton. Don't overthink this one. Just play him in all of your lineups.
     
  • The other RB that most of the field is going to be playing is RB Mike Gillislee $5,300. He is way under-priced where he will be the lead back (LeSean McCoy is out) against a porous Miami Dolphins defense. Buffalo is thin at both RB and WR so Gillislee should see a ton of opportunity.
     
  • If Jamaal Charles scratches (He is a game-time decision), then my second RB will definitely be RB Spencer Ware. In the last 3 weeks, four different RBs (Jonathan Stewart, Melvin Gordon, DeVonta Freeman, and Tevin Coleman) have scored 20+ fantasy points against the Saints. These backs managed 8 TDs (7 rushing and 1 receiving) during this span. Even if Jamaal Charles is active, Spencer Ware should be a strong consideration in your lineups. He has 2 TD potential
  • The Indianapolis Colts will be down a few pass catchers as TE Dwayne Allen, WR Phillip Dorsett, and WR Quan Bray will all miss this week. If Indianapolis is able to generate any offense through the air at all, it looks as if TY Hilton and TE Jack Doyle could be in store for big games. TY Hilton is a game-time decision, but most feel he is on the probable side of questionable. I like both options in my cash games.
     
  • In a similar vein, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are without their WR2 Vincent Jackson this week. The 49ers play faster than anyone else in the NFL allowing the most plays to their opponents. I already mentioned the must-start Jacquizz Rodgers above, but strong consideration should also be given to WR Mike Evans. He was already leading the NFL in targets per game at 12.2 per game. He could see 15+ targets against the 49ers this week.
     
  • At place kicker, I like kickers that play in domes, are at home and are big favorites. PK Matt Bryant, ATL checks all those boxes for me.
     
  • When choosing defenses, I like defenses that can are big favorites going against shaky QB play. New England ($4,400) goes against Landry Jones. They are on the road, but could have a big day if the Steelers fall behind early. The Bengals draw the Browns at home in a game where Terrell Pryor is likely worse than 50/50 to start. If Pryor scratches, pay the extra money and lock the Bengals up

Sample Roster #1 (Main Slate) - Projected Points = 125.3

Note: I expect this lineup to project much higher if RB Jamaal Charles scratches. There is also a lot of implied upside with these players.

Sample Roster #2 - Main slate ($60K) - Projected Points = 126.5