Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.
My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games
In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches up my projections against FanDuel's prices:
Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:
- Everything is sorted by position
- I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
- The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 2 Price
- The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher value the better.
- H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
- ExpPts = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
- In the 2016 Cracking FanDuel book, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of Ratio, H-Value, and Expect Team Points at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
- I have highlighted player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. All meet the Criteria and have the best average criteria score. They generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow also all meet the criteria but are not among the leaders in average criteria score.
Situations that stand out to me this week.
- I am going to the well again against the Indianapolis defense. They are fielding a sub-par unit that is riddled with injuries. The Denver Broncos are expected to use CJ Anderson a lot in this contest. Out of the play-fakes to CJ, I could see them involving Virgil Green as easy to execute passes for the rookie Trevor Siemian. Play CJ with confidence. TE Virgil Green is a cheap option at TE that allows you to build some great rosters.
- The Carolina Panthers at home against the San Francisco 49ers could be the most lopsided game of the week. Vegas has the point spread at 13.5 points and that might be kind. SF travels to CAR on a short week in an early Sunday start. CAR gets maximum rest as they played on THU night in the opener. CAR lost a tough game and is going to be looking to right the ship with a big performance. Cam Newton is my top QB play for cash games and I like RB Jonathan Stewart as a cheap punt away from the chalk in GPPs. Because of price, I expect most of the field to gravitate towards Eli Manning ($8,100) at QB. For GPPs, I like Matthew Stafford, Jimmy Garropolo, Trevor Siemian, and Phillip Rivers as under-owned QBs that could deliver huge games.
- Watch the Sunday weather news closely. Tropical Storm Julia (off the East Coast) appears to be calming down, but it could impact how teams approach their games from a run/pass ratio. The NYG/NO and CIN/PIT games are the situations I am watching the most.
- With LeVeon Bell out, DeAngelo Williams is a must-start every week until FanDuel raises his price considerably. At $7,600 he is a no-brainer cash-game play as he will be active in any game script scenario for the Steelers. Additionally, until defenses show us that they can stop WR Antonio Brown, he will be in my cash lineups.
- With the field also likely to be on CJ Anderson and DeAngelo Williams, I like RB Rashad Jennings, Mark Ingram, Jonathan Stewart, LeGarrette Blount, Danny Woodhead, Jeremy Langford, and Latavius Murray as quality RB options in GPPs. All should be low-owned.
- WR Chris Hogan, NE at just $4,700 makes a fine punt-play if you are looking to get Cam Newton, or another elite WR into your lineups this week. He will get a bump in stats should TE Rob Gronkowski scratch on Sunday
- I prefer kickers at home with high implied totals. Catanzaro ($4,900) heads my list, but McManus ($4,700) and Janikowski ($4,600) represent solid choices if you need to save cap space.
- At defense, I like New England at home at just $4,500. Miami will again be without their starting center which should make their offense inept. Carolina also gets a great matchup against San Francisco and should be worth the $5,300 price tag if you can work it in.
Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Projected Points = 133.6
- QB Cam Newton, CAR - $9,000
- RB DeAngelo Williams, PIT - $7,600
- RB C.J. Anderson, DEN - $7,800
- TE Virgil Green, DEN - $4,600
- WR WR Chris Hogan, NE - $4,700
- WR Antonio Brown, PIT - $9,200
- WR Alshon Jeffery, CHI - $7,800
- PK Brandon McManus, DEN - $4,700
- TD New England Patriots - $4,500