Cracking FanDuel: Week 15

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests.

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches up my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Link to Week 15 Value Chart

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

  • Everything is sorted by position
  • I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
  • The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 15 Price
  • The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher value the better.
  • H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
  • ExpPts = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
  • In the 2016 Cracking FanDuel book, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of Ratio, H-Value, and Expect Team Points at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
  • I have highlighted player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most meet the Criteria and have the best average criteria score. They generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow are additional players that I like this week.

General Thoughts

Situations that stand out to me this week.

  • We get a big reprieve from last week's snow-filled games. No snow is predicted and the rain games look to be either light rain or drizzle. Winds appear moderate with just two games forecasted above 15 mph (JAC/HOU at 18mph; GB/CHI at 16 mph). Check back on Sunday to make sure those situations have not worsened. Winds above 20 mph can be troublesome for the intermediate to long passing game as well as impacting place kickers range.
     
  • Las Vegas is predicting a massive 32.0 point total for the Atlanta Falcons this weekend. And the Falcons will be without their top player (Julio Jones). Everyone is in play on the Falcons. Because of the large point spread (ATL is favored by 13.5 points) and the game is at home, I am expecting to see a lot of Devonta Freeman in this contest. He did next to nothing last week (against a tough LA front), but scored 4 rushing TDs in the two games at home prior to that. San Francisco continues to be exploited through the air and I think that's the game script we should see this weekend as well. If you decide to fade Devonta Freeman, I think your roster has to include PK Matt Bryant. 7/13 kickers facing the 49ers have topped 10 fantasy points this season. In a home dome game, Matt Bryant is one of the safest options to get 10+ FP this weekend. Without Julio Jones, I expect to see Taylor Gabriel ($5,800) and Mohammad Sanu ($5,300) to be the most involved in the passing game. Both could reach value at their low salaries even without scoring.
     
  • The Baltimore Ravens are quietly having a very nice season. They sit at 7-6 and are nice favorites to win at home this weekend. RB Kenneth Dixon ($5,100) has leap-frogged struggling Terrance West and should be in for a nice workload against an Eagles team that is out of the playoff hunt. Although there are a lot of RB values on the board this week, punting to Dixon is the one I will be using a lot in my lineups. He had 11 targets last week and converted those opportunities to 8 catches for 42 yards and a score. If the Ravens are going to be a factor in the playoffs, they are going to need Kenneth Dixon's multi-skill set on the field a lot. I think that debut starts this week. I have him modestly projected but am likely to move him even higher Sunday morning. He has 3X potential at his low salary. His inclusion in your lineup frees up necessary cap space to field a very strong lineup everywhere.
     
  • On defense, I will have the Bills in 100% of my lineups. The last three teams that have faced the Browns have combined for 54 fantasy points against the struggling Browns. With the Bills at home, this is a perfect spot to get 10+ FPs. This is not a spot to overthink things.
     
  • Here are my Cash+ stacks (for Sunday games) that I will be rolling with this week: Tyrod Taylor / Sammy Watkins ($13,700), Joe Flacco / Mike Wallace ($13,300), Joe Flacco / Kenneth Dixon (12,500), Derek Carr / Michael Crabtree (13,900), Matt Ryan / Taylor Gabriel ($14,300), Trevor Siemian / Emmanuel Sanders ($13,200) nnd Trevor Siemian / Demaryius Thomas ($13,300). I know that's a lot of options, but playing these in 2X, 3X, 5X, and 100-man, and some GPP situations has led to my bigggest wins this year. I am staying with this approach.

Let's jump to some samples for the Sunday Main Slate.

Sample Roster #1 (Taylor to Watkins) - Projected Points = 131.9

Sample Roster #2 (Ryan to Gabriel) - Projected Points = 130.0