Cracking FanDuel: Week 11

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests.

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches up my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Link to Week 11 Value Chart

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

  • Everything is sorted by position
  • I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
  • The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 11 Price
  • The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher value the better.
  • H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
  • ExpPts = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
  • In the 2016 Cracking FanDuel book, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of Ratio, H-Value, and Expect Team Points at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
  • I have highlighted player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most meet the Criteria and have the best average criteria score. They generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow are additional players that I like this week.

General Thoughts

Situations that stand out to me this week.

  • The New England Patriots (on the road against the San Francisco 49ers) have the highest implied total at 31.5 points this week. Combined with the injuries of TE Rob Gronkowski and WR Chris Hogan, this puts a lot of New England skill players in play. The Gronkowski injury elevates TE Martellus Bennett to the top player at the position. At $5,200, this is someone that can not be faded in cash games. Additionally, the Gronkowski and Hogan injuries put both WR Julian Edelman ($6,100) and RB LeGarette Blount ($7,300) into play. Both are way under-priced for the volume of work that is expected to come their way. The 49ers have been the league's worst team at stopping RBs all year. Over the last 4 weeks, RBs are scoring 37.2 FP per game against them. LeGarrette Blount seems a lock for at least 1 TD. The Gronkowski and Hogan injuries also free up about 10 extra targets per game and Edelman is the prime recipient to get a lot of those targets. In GPPs, I think you have to play at LEAST one New England Patriot. PK Gostkowski ($4,900) and New England Defense ($4,900) are also solid plays.
     
  • The wind speed is worth watching in the PIT/CLE game. Steady winds near 25mph will impact the medium-to-long passing game and kicking games for these teams. As I write this, the winds are expected to be 26-28 mph during the game. These high winds should make this a Le'Veon Bell game script. Antonio Brown may not catch any long passes, but he could still be used in a lot of underneath routes. He is impacted, but still a quality play against a really bad defense.
     
  • The Tennessee / Indianapolis matchup pits the two worst teams at stopping the QB over the last 4 weeks. At just $8,100 in the best plus matchup of the week, I am finding it hard to fade Andrew Luck in any format (regardless of ownership). Virtually all of the players on both teams are in play and the game has ping-pong scoring written all over it. When they matched up in week 7, RB Frank Gore (16.8 FP), WR TY Hilton (22.8 FP), TE Jack Doyle (18.3 FP), RB DeMarco Murray (20.2 FP) and TE Delanie Walker (17.9) all had big games.
     
  • My pressure indicator suggests the Oakland Raiders are going to have an easy time completing passes downfield. Without JJ Watt, the Houston Texans simply don't get much pressure on the passer. And Derek Carr continues to be one of the least sacked QBs in the league. On slates that include the MNF game, I am going to have a lot of exposure to WR Michael Crabtree ($6,600) this week. I expect him to score a TD.
     
  • On defense, I like the Minnesota Vikings at the min-price of $4,500. Carson Palmer is getting sacked a lot lately. The Minnesota defense has slowed from their early start, but I think the sacks and fumble recoveries alone will vault them to a nice total in this contest.
     
  • At kicker, I like Gostkowski ($4,900), but depending on how many other Patriots you have played, you might want to look at someone like Matt Prater ($4,600)

Sample Roster #1 (Heavy on NE) - Projected Points = 141.4

Sample Roster #2 - Projected Points = 138.2