Cracking FanDuel: Week 10

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests.

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches up my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Link to Week 10 Value Chart

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

  • Everything is sorted by position
  • I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
  • The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 10 Price
  • The Ratio column reflects the expected points multiplier (per thousand of salary). The higher value the better.
  • H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
  • ExpPts = A team's expected points via the Las Vegas spread and under/over totals. The higher the better.
  • In the 2016 Cracking FanDuel book, I demonstrated that selecting players who were in the upper half of Ratio, H-Value, and Expect Team Points at their positions led to the best fantasy success. I call these three factors the Criteria.
  • I have highlighted player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. Most meet the Criteria and have the best average criteria score. They generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow are additional players that I like this week.

General Thoughts

Situations that stand out to me this week.

  • The San Francisco defense has imploded especially against the run. From week 6 on, the 49ers are allowing 45.0 Fanduel FP to RBs. The next worst team (the Browns are at 31.6 FP per game). This is as chalk of a situation as it gets. It does not matter what David Johnson's ownership percentage is. He is the must-play this week. Don't overthink it. He will be in 100% of my lineups.
     
  • I always like to look at the last 4 weeks (weeks 6-9) to see where top 7 offenses will go against bottom 7 defenses. These are prime spots to look for players. The only pass off/def that meets the criteria this week is the Green Bay Packers against the Tennessee Titans. Over the last 4 weeks, the Packers have averaged 291 passing yards and 2.8 TDs while the Titans have yielded 326 passing yards and 2.5 TDs during the same span. Although I rate Aaron Rodgers as my #1 QB this week, I might be significantly be under-projecting his upside. I have him projected for 286 yards and 2 passing TDs, but I he surpasses those numbers in the majority of my simulations. With most of his WRs now finally healthy, he is my favorite QB for this slate.
     
  • The Dallas Cowboys have held runners in check for most of 2016, but the one weakness they seem to have is stopping the pass-catching RB. Four backs have cleared 45+ receiving yards against this unit (Isaiah Crowell - 63, Chris Thompson - 57, Jordan Howard - 47, and Giovani Bernard - 46).  To say Le'Veon Bell is better than those guys is an understatement.  With Ben Roethlisberger struggling a bit with his lack of mobility, look for him to attempt to get the ball to Bell a lot in space.  At just $8,100 he is priced too cheaply.  If you are looking to punt at your RB2, Daren Sproles, PHI ($5,100) is my preferred play.
  • Some cheaper WR options exist this week that could be in for good games: Tyrell Williams ($5,900 - Chargers) should get additional looks if Travis Benjamin scratches. JJ Nelson ($5,600 - Cardinals) has been elevated to Arizona's WR2 and goes against the 49ers who are also bad stopping the pass. You also get the added benefit of additional snaps on offense when using players against the 49ers.
     
  • Another QB I like a lot this week (dare I say it) is Jay Cutler, CHI. He draws the Tampa Bay Bucs who have been shredded the last two outings. Matt Ryan hung 344 passing yards and 4 TDs on just 34 attempts while Derek Carr managed 513 yards and 4 TDs on 59 attempts. The NFL is a copy-cat league. Expect the Bears to come out throwing. Number 1 WRs (Julio Jones 8-111-1 and Amari Cooper 12-173-1) were the recipients so I like WR Alshon Jeffery to get loose this week. My projections are likely discounting his upside as well.
     
  • On defense, I am leaning heavily to using the Washington Redskins at home against the Vikings. Over the last 4 weeks, the Redskins are averaging 3.67 sacks. The Vikings during this same span have allowed a league high 4.33 sacks. At just $4,400, this Washington team is priced right.  The Cardinals ($5,200) and NY Jets ($4,800) are additional safe choices.
     
  • At $4,500 I am having a hard time staying away from PK Chandler Catanzaro, ARI at home.  The 49ers have been yielding mostly TDs, but if this game ends up being the blowout that Vegas expects, I think Catanzaro gets his 10+ points.

Sample Roster #1 (Heavy on ARI) - Projected Points = 136.8

Sample Roster #2 - Projected Points = 136.7