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Value Plays: Week 8

A comparison of the weekly positional rankings and the Top 200, this is an output of the players who could have unexpected big fantasy weeks.

This article will take a weekly look at players who could provide value in a given week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com Insider content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, the matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's value players.

Quarterback

Andy Dalton

  • Top 200 ranking: 14
  • Weekly ranking: 8
  • Difference: +6

Dalton has played better than expected this season.  Getting Tyler Eifert back in the lineup has to help, too.  The game against Washington should be high scoring.  With Cincinnati having a porous pass defense, Dalton is expected to throw often just to keep pace with Kirk Cousins and crew. 

Matt Ryan

  • Top 200 ranking: 6
  • Weekly ranking: 1
  • Difference: +5

Ryan and the Falcons passing offense has been superb this season under the orchestration of Kyle Shanahan.  The game against the Packers this week at home in the dome should be very high scoring.  Both pass defenses are vulnerable to the opposing WR1s.  Green Bay has endured injuries to the secondary.  The injury to Tevin Coleman should set up the Atlanta quarterback for even more passing attempts.

Running Back

Christine Michael

  • Top 200 ranking: 11
  • Weekly ranking: 4
  • Difference: +7

Michael is in a great spot for a big fantasy outburst.  Seattle travels to New Orleans to face the Saints in a game that should have plenty of scoring opportunities for both teams.  The Saints are the worst defense in holding running backs in check, yielding over 33 PPR fantasy points a game.  We like Michael’s chances of scoring at least once and topping 100 total yards.  With the New Orleans offense usually scoring more at home than on the road, Pete Carroll and company will want to establish the running game. 

Matt Forte

  • Top 200 ranking: 17
  • Weekly ranking: 5
  • Difference: +12

Forte is coming off the huge game last week and gets a cherry matchup in Cleveland this week.  As the Jets struggle to find an answer at the quarterback position, Forte should see his touches increase.  Coach Todd Bowles has shown a desire to run the football and play conservatively on offense.  A game against the Browns makes that possible as Cleveland is likely on the team’s fourth quarterback (Kevin Hogan) of the season.  Forte will get a rush defense in the bottom one-third of the league in holding running backs in check.  The matchup and expected game script should be in favor of the veteran.  This might be the best remaining matchup for Forte this season. 

Jacquizz Rodgers

  • Top 200 ranking: 29
  • Weekly ranking:  17
  • Difference: +12

Rodgers had a solid game last week against the 49ers and gets another great matchup against the Oakland Raiders.  This will be consecutive weeks for the Raiders traveling to Florida.  Oakland is another bottom one-third defense for running backs for Rodgers to feast on.  With Doug Martin expected back sooner than later, Rodgers gets another chance to top the 100 rushing-yard mark.  He delivered last week and should do so again. 

Wide Receiver

Doug Baldwin

  • Top 200 ranking: 27
  • Weekly ranking: 15
  • Difference: +12

Baldwin did not see may pass targets against the physical Arizona defense Sunday night but should see ample against the swiss cheese Saints secondary.  We are expecting the Seattle passing offense to rebound in fine fashion in the great situation.  New Orleans is the 7th best matchup for opposing receivers. 

Ty Montgomery

  • Top 200 ranking: 31
  • Weekly ranking: 10
  • Difference: +21

Montgomery’s situation is unusual.  His fantasy value comes from his role as a running back.  As James Starks is expected back in a couple of weeks, and Eddie Lacy recently placed on injured reserve, Montgomery could touch the ball 20 times in the game against the Falcons.  With the potential for a high-scoring affair, inserting Montgomery in the lineup as a receiver is the best of both worlds.  He gets carries and easy passes out of the backfield to go with his role as a slot receiver if the Packers go empty- or four-receiver set. 

Randall Cobb

  • Top 200 ranking: 19
  • Weekly ranking: 7
  • Difference: +12

Cobb has been the Packers top receiver the past few weeks.  He has been a league target leader during this time.  In a game that looks to be very high scoring, we love to recommend the Green Bay pass catcher most likely to have a monster outing.  With the Packers struggling to find a running game, Aaron Rodgers could throw the ball 50 times in the contest.  It is not far-fetched to imagine the slot receiver collecting 15 pass targets in the contest. 

Tight End

C.J. Fiedorowicz

  • Top 200 ranking: 26
  • Weekly ranking: 13
  • Difference: +13

Fiedorowicz has emerged to become the next solid tight end for the Houston Texans.  With opposing defenses focused on slowing down Hopkins, Fuller, and Miller, the young tight end is able to get open.  The game against the Lions presents another solid opportunity for Fiedorowicz to put up fantasy points for his owners.  Detroit gives up 18.04 PPR fantasy points per game.  He makes a great start from the waiver wire this week. 

Jack Doyle

  • Top 200 ranking: 21
  • Weekly ranking: 9
  • Difference: +12

Doyle has impressed while Dwayne Allen has been sidelined.  He put up decent numbers with Allen in the lineup but has excelled as the top tight end.  The game against the Kansas City Chiefs would not normally make a good matchup but Indianapolis is playing at home and the offense puts up points at home.  There is hope that Moncrief makes it back for this contest, but he is not certain to be back to full strength from his scapula fracture.  Doyle has seen more pass targets with Allen and the receivers (Moncrief and Dorsett) out of action.  We expect this to continue until Moncrief is back to 100%.

Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback.  Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.