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Overvalued Players: Week 9

A comparison of the weekly positional rankings and the Top 200, this is an output of the players who could have unexpected poor fantasy weeks.

This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. A negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, the matchup of the week, or short-term situation.  Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players. 

Quarterback

Eli Manning

  • Top 200 ranking: 11
  • Weekly ranking: 22
  • Difference: -11

Manning and the Giants are coming off a bye week and will entertain the Eagles this week.  This is not a good matchup as Philadelphia is a strong defense as shown last Sunday night versus Dallas.  In that game, the Eagles had Dak Prescott on the ropes often and forced him into bad decisions.  We could see Manning in a similar scenario, especially if New York is unable to run the ball effectively.  He faces the seventh-best defense in defending fantasy quarterbacks. 

Matthew Stafford

  • Top 200 ranking: 12
  • Weekly ranking: 19
  • Difference: -7

Stafford and the Lions offense was not sharp against the Texans last week.  Their opponent this week, the Vikings, should provide an even stiffer test.  Minnesota is coming off an embarrassing loss on Monday Night Football to the Chicago Bears.  The Vikings are the fourth-best defense in holding fantasy quarterbacks under wraps.  We expect coach Zimmer to have his troops ready after the ugly loss in primetime. 

Running Back

Carlos Hyde

  • Top 200 ranking: 15
  • Weekly ranking: 24
  • Difference: -9

While Hyde looks like he might play against the Saints this week, we advise only playing him in fantasy if there are no other viable choices.  Yes, the matchup is good.  But, Hyde wore the non-contact jersey Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday in practice and may not be ready for the big hits.  Also, coach Chip Kelly said that DuJuan Harris will get more work.  Harris joins Mike Davis and Shaun Draughn as the committee backing up Hyde.  We fear a less than 100% Hyde will fall into the committee dumpster fire and be a quagmire for fantasy owners.  In addition, it is likely that Drew Brees and company jump out to a lead and force Kelly’s offense to throw more than they want, abandoning the run. 

Todd Gurley

  • Top 200 ranking: 5
  • Weekly ranking: 10
  • Difference: -5

Gurley has not lived up to expectations this season.  The Rams offense as a whole has disappointed.  The game against the Panthers will be a tough, hard-fought battle for the Los Angeles running game.  Carolina is in the top one-third of the league in defending opposing running backs.  This is a defense that looked good last week against Arizona and will need a strong effort to beat Los Angeles.  We do not like Gurley’s chances of topping the 100-yard mark on the ground. 

LeSean McCoy

  • Top 200 ranking: 14
  • Weekly ranking: 25
  • Difference: -11

McCoy tried to play through a hamstring injury two weeks ago but failed to make it through the contest.  He did not look like himself and even re-injured the hamstring which kept him out of the contest last week versus New England.  While the veteran runner may try to play again this week, after sitting out practice and games for a few weeks, we advise fantasy owners to not insert McCoy into fantasy lineups.  Until the injury heals, there will be increased odds of another setback.  With the game in Seattle against the Seahawks defense, we hope coach Rex Ryan holds his star tailback out at least another week.   

Wide Receiver

Odell Beckham

  • Top 200 ranking: 3
  • Weekly ranking: 7
  • Difference: -4

While we would still advise starting the charismatic pass catcher, his fantasy upside might not be high against a very good Eagles pass defense.  Philadelphia is the fourth-best defense in limiting big games from opposing fantasy wide receivers.  Expect the division-rival Eagles to have a plan to frustrate and limit Beckham.

Kelvin Benjamin

  • Top 200 ranking: 13
  • Weekly ranking: 18
  • Difference: -5

Benjamin has been eerily quiet the past few weeks after a huge start to the season.  The trip to Los Angeles will be a test for the Panthers offense.  While the Rams are not great against the pass, we expect this game to be low scoring and Los Angeles to attempt to limit Benjamin’s big plays.  He could still have a breakout game, but the Rams do a great job of making games ugly and low scoring. 

Allen Robinson

  • Top 200 ranking: 12
  • Weekly ranking: 19
  • Difference: -7

Robinson is so talented that we wonder why he is not having a better season.  The answer is easy: Blake Bortles.  The Jaguars quarterback has been atrocious this season.  As Jacksonville travels to Kansas City this week, we are hesitant to recommend Robinson as anything more than a low-end fantasy WR2.  Kansas City has yielded big games to opposing wideouts so there is hope.  But, it all lands on the should of Bortles. 

Tight End

With five of the top eight tight ends on bye this week, there are no overvalued players at the position.  We will have two more tight ends next week.  The lack of quality players at the tight end position will make fantasy lineups interesting in Week 9.

Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback.  Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.