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Overvalued Players: Week 8

A comparison of the weekly positional rankings and the Top 200, this is an output of the players who could have unexpected poor fantasy weeks.

This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. A negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, the matchup of the week, or short-term situation.  Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players. 

Quarterback

Philip Rivers

  • Top 200 ranking: 15
  • Weekly ranking: 22
  • Difference: -7

Rivers has played very well this season, even as his most potent weapons have gone down to injury.  After lighting up the Denver secondary a couple of weeks ago, the return match in Mile High should offer a much different outcome.  The Broncos are the top fantasy defense in limiting fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.  Also, we fully expect defensive coordinator Wade Phillips to have a few surprises for the Chargers.  This is not a great week to start the San Diego pass offense.

Matthew Stafford

  • Top 200 ranking: 8
  • Weekly ranking: 11
  • Difference: -3

Stafford has been an elite fantasy option this season under the direction of Jim Bob Cooter, his offensive coordinator.  Like many dome quarterbacks, Stafford plays better at home than on the road.  So, the game in Houston against the Texans could be a difficult matchup.  Houston is the third-best fantasy defense against opposing quarterbacks and is looking to rebound off a dominating loss to Denver Monday night.

Running Back

Mark Ingram

  • Top 200 ranking: 10
  • Weekly ranking: 13
  • Difference: -3

The ranking would look much worse if not for six teams on bye this week.  The Saints host the Seahawks in what appears to be a tough matchup for the New Orleans running game.  Ingram will face the fifth-best defense at holding opposing tailbacks in check.  Yes, Ingram scored last week, but he has not received enough short yardage looks or pass targets to be able to meet fantasy owners’ expectations. 

Jamaal Charles

  • Top 200 ranking: 20
  • Weekly ranking: 37
  • Difference: -17

Charles played some in Week 6, before sitting out last Sunday’s victory after his surgically-repaired knee swelled during the week after the game.  Against the soft Colts run defense, we expect to see more of Spencer Ware, and even Charcandrick West, than Charles.  With Ware playing so well, the Chiefs will want to take it slow with the veteran returning from a knee injury.

LeSean McCoy

  • Top 200 ranking: 13
  • Weekly ranking: 30
  • Difference: -17

McCoy tried to play through a hamstring injury last week.  He did not look like himself and even re-injured the hamstring.  While the veteran runner may try to play again this week, we advise fantasy owners to not insert McCoy into fantasy lineups.  Until the injury heals, there will increase odds of another setback. 

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs

  • Top 200 ranking: 20
  • Weekly ranking: 24
  • Difference: -4

Diggs did not look totally healthy against the Eagles last week and could still be suffering from the groin injury which kept him out of a few games.  The game against the Bears could be a good matchup if the talented receiver was healthy.  We expect the Vikings to run the ball often in what should be a low-scoring game. 

Tyrell Williams

  • Top 200 ranking: 23
  • Weekly ranking: 33
  • Difference: -10

Williams has been a pleasant surprise for the Chargers.  After the loss of Keenan Allen, the team needed a receiver to step up, and Williams has exceeded expectations.  The game in Denver against the outstanding Broncos secondary will be a stiff test for the youngster.  We like him only as a WR3/flex option as Denver will want to avenge the loss from a couple of weeks ago.  Also, keep tabs on Williams’ practice participation as he missed practice on Wednesday due to injury.  An injury would push him further down the rankings.

Allen Robinson

  • Top 200 ranking: 13
  • Weekly ranking: 20
  • Difference: -7

Yes, it may be heresy to recommend lowering expectations on the talented wide receiver.  A few factors work against him having a big game.  First, the game is on Thursday night and very few of the Thursday games have produced a stellar fantasy game from a pass catcher.  Secondly, quarterback Blake Bortles has been terrible of late.  His mechanics have regressed and the passes are not accurate.  Lastly, the game is against Tennessee, and the Titans are the 10th best defense at containing opposing wide receivers.  Robinson is still a fantasy WR2, just one without a ton of upside this week. 

Tight End

Tyler Eifert

  • Top 200 ranking: 8
  • Weekly ranking: 17
  • Difference: -9

Eifert played limited snaps against Cleveland last week and – even though he will play more versus Washington – it may not be enough for him to be fantasy-relevant.  We expect Eifert to put up big fantasy numbers down the stretch, but those will come once he is fully healed. 

Martellus Bennett

  • Top 200 ranking: 7
  • Weekly ranking: 16
  • Difference: -9

Bennett has found a nice role with the Patriots.  With the presence of Rob Gronkowski and the other weapons, Bennett can get open at will against opposing linebackers and safeties.  Most weeks, the veteran tight end is a “must start.”  But, against the Bills, we are hesitant to recommend inserting him into fantasy lineups.  Buffalo yields an average of 6.17 PPR fantasy points to opposing tight ends.  While we expect that number to go up this week, it is an indication that the Bills are good at defending the tight end position. 

Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback.  Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.