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Overvalued Players: Week 7

A comparison of the weekly positional rankings and the Top 200, this is an output of the players who could have unexpected poor fantasy weeks.

This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. A negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, the matchup of the week, or short-term situation.  Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players. 

Quarterback

Drew Brees

  • Top 200 ranking: 1
  • Weekly ranking: 8
  • Difference: -7

Brees and the Saints offense play much better at home than on the road.  So, the tough matchup in Kansas City gives us pause for Brees’ fantasy expectations.  The combination of getting Brees outside the friendly confines of the dome and against the 11th best defense against fantasy quarterbacks is enough for us to limit expectations. 

Russell Wilson

  • Top 200 ranking: 10
  • Weekly ranking: 18
  • Difference: -8

The Seattle passing game has been efficient this season.  Wilson could still be a little gimpy.  The Seahawks travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals in a tough divisional matchup.  The stingy Arizona defense is tied for the 8th most difficult defense for opposing quarterbacks. 

Running Back

C.J. Anderson

  • Top 200 ranking: 16
  • Weekly ranking: 21
  • Difference: -5

With the Broncos falling behind the last two weeks, Anderson has not been used as much as fantasy owners would like.  The game against the tough defensive line of Houston will be another test this week.  With the injuries to the Texans secondary, the Broncos may attack Houston through the air.  Also, the emergence of rookie Devontae Booker could erode some of Anderson’s upside in a game Denver may control from the outset. 

Lamar Miller

  • Top 200 ranking: 6
  • Weekly ranking: 11
  • Difference: -5

Miller and the Texans travel to Denver to play a feisty Broncos team coming off consecutive losses.  Denver will stack the line of scrimmage and make former teammate Brock Osweiler beat them through the air.  The Broncos defense will look to set the tone for the game and it starts with shutting down the running game. 

Mark Ingram

  • Top 200 ranking: 8
  • Weekly ranking: 12
  • Difference: -4

Ingram and the Saints travel to Kansas City to face a Chiefs defense which excels against the run.  Ingram’s lack of red zone carries and pass receptions have hindered his fantasy upside this season.  He still is a low-end fantasy RB1, but one without a high ceiling in what appears to be a hard-fought contest.

Wide Receiver

Travis Benjamin

  • Top 200 ranking: 17
  • Weekly ranking: 27
  • Difference: -10

The game in Atlanta will be tough for the speedy Chargers receiver.  The Falcons have a decent pass defense, landing in the middle of the NFL in yielding fantasy points to opposing receivers.  Also, the limited snaps played in last week’s victory over Denver is concerning.  We hesitantly have Benjamin penciled in as a fantasy WR3 this week.    

DeAndre Hopkins

  • Top 200 ranking: 15
  • Weekly ranking: 28
  • Difference: -13

In fantasy football, we always encourage owners to start their studs.  But, the game against the Broncos defense might test that theory, all depending on your options.  Quarterback Brock Osweiler has not been playing well and the Broncos have an excellent secondary.  This is a defense that yields an average of only 19 PPR fantasy points to opposing receivers.  This is the best in the NFL by 7.5 points per game.  Hopkins will garner plenty of attention in the contest. 

Brandin Cooks

  • Top 200 ranking: 7
  • Weekly ranking: 15
  • Difference: -8

Cooks is coming off a monster game against the Panthers last week but will get a big test versus the Chiefs.  Like his quarterback above, we do not like banking on the Saints offense when playing on the road.  Cooks is still a solid fantasy WR2 but is unlikely to duplicate last week’s stellar numbers. 

Tight End

Kyle Rudolph

  • Top 200 ranking: 5
  • Weekly ranking: 8
  • Difference: -3

Rudolph has far exceeded expectations this season.  The addition of Sam Bradford has helped him become an every-week fantasy starter.  The game against the Eagles in Philadelphia will test a Vikings pass offense which may be without (in limited physically) receiver, Stefon Diggs.  Even though Philadelphia has not played against many top tight ends, the fact that the Eagles have only given up 23.30 PPR fantasy points over five games is amazing.  This is even including the decent outing by Vernon Davis last week.  Rudolph should still be a passable fantasy starter, but a very touchdown-dependent one.

Jimmy Graham

  • Top 200 ranking:3
  • Weekly ranking: 7
  • Difference: -4

Graham’s return to prominence has been nothing short of awesome.  His burst and ability to create space will be put to the test against the Cardinals defense.  Graham faces the single defense better than the Eagles in limiting opposing tight ends.  Arizona has given up only 25.80 PPR fantasy points through six games.  This game will be a great matchup of strength versus strength. 

Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback.  Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.