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Overvalued Players: Week 6

A comparison of the weekly positional rankings and the Top 200, this is an output of the players who could have unexpected poor fantasy weeks.

This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. A negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, the matchup of the week, or short-term situation.  Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players. 

Quarterback

Philip Rivers

  • Top 200 ranking: 14
  • Weekly ranking: 26
  • Difference: -12

Rivers is coming off a monster outing in the loss to the Raiders.  His Chargers offense has been effective, even with the huge losses to injury.  San Diego hosts Denver on Thursday Night Football this week.  Most weeks, the Thursday night game offers lower scoring.  Combine this with the tough defense who is coming off a loss, and we do not like Rivers’ chances of having a huge fantasy outing. 

Matt Ryan

  • Top 200 ranking: 11
  • Weekly ranking: 18
  • Difference: -7

After the upset victory in Denver against the Broncos, the Falcons now travel to Seattle to face a Seahawks team coming off a bye week to rest and prepare for Matt Ryan and company.  While Kyle Shanahan has orchestrated a solid offensive scheme this season, this is a tough matchup against the team yielding by far the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.  This is a week to look for other options. 

Running Back

Theo Riddick

  • Top 200 ranking: 11
  • Weekly ranking: 18
  • Difference: -7

Riddick and the Lions host the Los Angeles Rams this week in a game that should fit the style of the visitors.  We expect Los Angeles to pull Detroit down into a low-scoring, ball control game.  Riddick scores big in high-scoring games.  This contest may not feature many touchdowns.  Also working against Riddick this week is the addition of Justin Forsett to the offense. 

Ezekiel Elliott

  • Top 200 ranking: 3
  • Weekly ranking: 6
  • Difference: -3

The rookie has been magnificent this season.  We are concerned about the matchup in Green Bay this week.  The Packers run defense are the stingiest in the league for fantasy owners.  Green Bay only allows opposing running backs to score less than 18 PPR fantasy points per game.  We expect the Packers defense to stack the line of scrimmage (like every other team) and allow their stiff run defense to bottle up the young runner. 

Devonta Freeman

  • Top 200 ranking: 15
  • Weekly ranking: 21
  • Difference: -6

Freeman has put up big fantasy points this season even while splitting time with Tevin Coleman.  Fantasy owners do not know which of the two runners will score touchdowns in a given week.  Well, the game against the Seahawks in Seattle could lead to neither scoring in the game.  Only the Packers, Ravens, and Cowboys give up fewer fantasy points to opposing running backs than do the Seahawks.  Coleman would fit in the Overvalued category as well. 

Wide Receiver

Travis Benjamin

  • Top 200 ranking: 16
  • Weekly ranking: 32
  • Difference: -16

Benjamin has been a pleasant surprise for many fans and fantasy owners.  He has played well as San Diego lost Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead for the year.  Rivers is starting to rely on the speedy receiver more and more down the field.  The game against Denver on Thursday evening will be a tough one for Benjamin’s fantasy owners.  The Broncos have the secondary to put the clamps on the Chargers receiving corps.  To give context, Denver is only allowing opposing teams’ wide receiver position to score 20.70 PPR fantasy points.  So, all of the receivers on a team collectively average 20.70 PPR fantasy points.  The next best is Seattle at 25.60 PPR fantasy points.  The Broncos allow almost five fewer fantasy points to the wide receiver position than the next best team.  For reference, the Raiders yield 45.98 PPR fantasy points to opposing receivers. 

Julio Jones

  • Top 200 ranking: 3
  • Weekly ranking: 9
  • Difference: -6

Yes, Jones is the third Falcon to appear in this article.  It should be obvious why the Atlanta pass offense may struggle against a well-rested Richard Sherman and the rest of the Seattle defense.  We fully expect Jones to see plenty of attention no matter which side of the field he lines up on.

Jarvis Landry

  • Top 200 ranking: 10
  • Weekly ranking: 25
  • Difference: -15

The Miami Dolphins pass offense has been amiss for the past few weeks.  Teams that bring pressure are able to disrupt the Miami offense.  With Pittsburgh coming to town this week, we expect the Steelers to smell blood in the water and bring pressure all game.  This causes quarterback Ryan Tannehill to lose focus.  The usually-consistent Landry has not seen his normal high volume of targets as Tannehill’s play has deteriorated. 

Tight End

Jordan Reed

  • Top 200 ranking: 1
  • Weekly ranking: 6
  • Difference: -5

Reed has been able to put up monster games this season.  He has been Kirk Cousins’ most reliable target.  But, we are hesitant to have high expectations for the athletic tight end this week as Washington hosts Philadelphia.  The Eagles are the stingiest defense in allowing fantasy points to opposing tight ends.  They give up a meager 2.58 PPR fantasy points to tight ends.  Philadelphia has only given up 10.30 PPR fantasy points to the tight end position all year (four games).  This is the best in the NFL.  Yes, we expect Reed to top that number, but not by enough to make fantasy owners happy. 

Tyler Eifert

  • Top 200 ranking: 11
  • Weekly ranking: 15
  • Difference: -4

Eifert looks to be trending toward playing this week in a huge game at New England.  We do not advise starting the stud tight end unless desperate.  Eifert is recovering from ankle and back injuries and his team travels to face the Patriots.  The consecutive road games against quality opponents will not help the Bengals cause. 

Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback.  Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.