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Overvalued Players: Week 5

A comparison of the weekly positional rankings and the Top 200, this is an output of the players who could have unexpected poor fantasy weeks.

This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. A negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, the matchup of the week, or short-term situation.  Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players. 

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford

  • Top 200 ranking: 9
  • Weekly ranking: 11
  • Difference: -2

This ranking looks much worse when considering that several top fantasy quarterbacks are either hurt or on bye (Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, Blake Bortles, Russell Wilson, and even Alex Smith).  The game against the Philadelphia Eagles, coming off a bye week, should be especially tough.  Philadelphia has enjoyed a week off to rest and prepare for Stafford and company. 

Matt Ryan

  • Top 200 ranking: 8
  • Weekly ranking: 12
  • Difference: -4

It seems that we feature the Broncos opponent in this column every week.  The high-scoring Falcons pass offense is no different.  Yes, Ryan is coming off of a sublime game against Carolina in which he threw for 500 yards.  But, the Denver defense is far superior to Carolina’s.

Running Back

LeSean McCoy

  • Top 200 ranking: 9
  • Weekly ranking: 13
  • Difference: -4

After shutting out the Patriots in astounding fashion Sunday, the Bills travel to Los Angeles to meet the strong Rams defense.  The opponent and travel are enough for us to downgrade the veteran back, but the topper is the travel from east coast to west against a solid defense with a strong interior line.

Ezekiel Elliott

  • Top 200 ranking: 3
  • Weekly ranking: 10
  • Difference: -7

Elliott had consecutive big games against two lacking foes, Chicago and San Francisco.  The matchup versus the stout Cincinnati Bengals defense should pose a very stiff test for the Cowboys offense, specifically the rookie runner.  Marvin Lewis and company will come be prepared to stack the line of scrimmage and make Dak Prescott beat them through the air, especially if Dez Bryant is gimpy or not in the lineup.

Carlos Hyde

  • Top 200 ranking: 12
  • Weekly ranking: 19
  • Difference: -7

The 49ers offense is centered around the versatile running back.  There is no passing game.  So, it is no surprise that the San Francisco offense struggles when playing behind on the scoreboard.  We anticipate the Cardinals will be able to capture and hold the lead on Thursday night, even with Drew Stanton under center. 

Wide Receiver

DeAndre Hopkins

  • Top 200 ranking: 9
  • Weekly ranking: 22
  • Difference: -13

Hopkins has struggled to find a rapport with quarterback Brock Osweiler.  The Texans offense is not firing on all cylinders, on the ground or through the air.  Houston needs a soft opponent to bust the slump.  Well, the game in Minnesota against the Vikings will be a tough one to right the ship.  Many saw how the Zimmer-led defense held Eli Manning, Odell Beckham, and the remainder of the New York Giants offense in check.  The Vikings have a solid scheme and will keep the score low.  We are not expecting a rebound outing for Hopkins this week.

Marvin Jones

  • Top 200 ranking: 8
  • Weekly ranking: 15
  • Difference: -7

Jones has ascended to be the Lions top receiver, bypassing Golden Tate.  The game against the Eagles this week will be a tough one for Jones.  Philadelphia is coming off a bye week and will have a plan to keep the ex-Bengal pass catcher in check.  He still is a startable fantasy WR2, just with less upside than many weeks. 

Mike Evans

  • Top 200 ranking: 5
  • Weekly ranking: 14
  • Difference: -9

Evans and the Buccaneers travel to Carolina to meet the Panthers.  While Carolina’s secondary is not as strong as in the past, as evidenced by the 300-yard performance by Julio Jones last week, we expect the Panthers to pull it together at home.  Evans is the main target for quarterback Jameis Winston and will need a good outing if Tampa Bay has a shot at the upset.

Tight End

Tyler Eifert

  • Top 200 ranking: 8
  • Weekly ranking: 18
  • Difference: -10

Eifert is expected to play this week for the first time all year.  Even with a great matchup, against the Dallas Cowboys, we have tempered expectations with the thought that it might take the star tight end a couple of weeks to get his conditioning back to full strength.  Dallas gives up the third most fantasy points to tight ends so there is upside if Eifert is healthy. 

Martellus Bennett

  • Top 200 ranking: 10
  • Weekly ranking: 15
  • Difference: -5

Bennett was the lone threat in the passing game last week against the Bills.  With Brady back under center, and Rob Gronkowski playing, we see other tight ends as better fantasy options this week as New England faces off against Cleveland.  Plus, if the Patriots are able to garner a lead in the contest, Bennett will be used as a run blocker for LeGarrette Blount, something the veteran tight end does well.

Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback.  Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.