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Overvalued Players: Week 4

A comparison of the weekly positional rankings and the Top 200, this is an output of the players who could have unexpected poor fantasy weeks.

This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. A negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, the matchup of the week, or short-term situation.  Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players. 

Quarterback

Carson Palmer

  • Top 200 ranking: 8
  • Weekly ranking: 23
  • Difference: -15

Palmer and the Cardinals offense have not been especially sharp this season.  The loss in Buffalo last week was particularly ugly.  The game against division-rival Rams will be competitive and should be relatively low-scoring.  Los Angeles will put pressure on the Arizona quarterback, possibly keeping the big plays in check.

Jameis Winston

  • Top 200 ranking: 11
  • Weekly ranking: 29
  • Difference: -18

This week’s game against Denver should provide a solid test for the young passer.  The Broncos defense is the best in the league.  Doug Martin is out of action due to injury, Vincent Jackson is fading quickly, and the release of Austin Seferian-Jenkins all lead to fewer weapons for the sophomore quarterback.  This would be a great week to bench the Buccaneer quarterback against the best secondary in the NFL.

Running Back

Tevin Coleman

  • Top 200 ranking: 17
  • Weekly ranking: 24
  • Difference: -7

Coleman’s three short scoring runs on Monday night overshadowed a mediocre game against the Saints. With the Panthers coming to town, we are not anticipating Coleman getting enough redzone carries to be anything more than a fringe RB2/3. 

Ezekiel Elliott

  • Top 200 ranking: 6
  • Weekly ranking: 13
  • Difference: -7

Elliott had a big game against the Bears Sunday evening, even though every other ball carrier on the team scored but the rookie.  As the Cowboys travel to San Francisco to meet the 49ers, we are hesitant to recommend the studly rookie for a couple of reasons.  First, the San Francisco run defense has been much improved.  Second, and possibly most important, we expect Dallas to jump out to a lead and lean on both Elliott and Alfred Morris.  The veteran could have a big role as the Cowboys look to help the rookie last the season without injury. 

DeMarco Murray

  • Top 200 ranking: 7
  • Weekly ranking: 17
  • Difference: -10

Murray and the middling Titans offense play the aggressive Texans defense this week.  We fully expect Houston to stack the line of scrimmage and make quarterback Marcus Mariota beat them through the air.  Even without J.J. Watt, the Texans will play well defensively.  This should be a low-scoring contest with neither team able to run the ball effectively.

Wide Receiver

Brandon Marshall

  • Top 200 ranking: 11
  • Weekly ranking: 24
  • Difference: -13

Marshall played last week on the injured knee suffered in Week 2.  While still a little gimpy, we do not like the chances of either Marshall or the Jets offense having a big game as the Seattle Seahawks come to town. 

Amari Cooper

  • Top 200 ranking: 8
  • Weekly ranking: 18
  • Difference: -10

Cooper has quietly put up big numbers this season.  As the Raiders travel east to face the Ravens, we do not like the matchup for the budding superstar.  Baltimore held the Jacksonville receivers in check last Sunday and could do the same to Oakland.

DeAndre Hopkins

  • Top 200 ranking: 5
  • Weekly ranking: 15
  • Difference: -10

Even with the addition of rookie Will Fuller, Hopkins still sees plenty of attention from opposing defenses.  The Texans face the Titans this week in what looks to be a low-scoring game.  Both teams will look to run the ball and play conservatively on offense.   

Tight End

Jordan Reed

  • Top 200 ranking: 3
  • Weekly ranking: 14
  • Difference: -11

With the emergence of Jamison Crowder, the Washington tight end has been kept under wraps.  We do not expect him to get many targets this week against Cleveland as the wide receivers have the advantage over the Browns defensive backs.  Reed will not see enough pass targets for fantasy owners. 

Delanie Walker

  • Top 200 ranking: 6
  • Weekly ranking: 21
  • Difference: -15

Walker missed last week’s game with a hamstring injury and could be limited against Houston, that is if he plays.  The veteran tight end is a dicey play this week, hampered by a nagging injury and facing a solid defense. 

Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback.  Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.