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Overvalued Players: Week 3

A comparison of the weekly positional rankings and the Top 200, this is an output of the players who could have unexpected poor fantasy weeks.

This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. A negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, the matchup of the week, or short-term situation.  Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players. 

Quarterback

Jameis Winston

  • Top 200 ranking: 12
  • Weekly ranking: 22
  • Difference: -10

This short season has displayed two different versions of the Tampa Bay quarterback.  Winston played near-flawless football in Atlanta Week 1, but the Buccaneer quarterback was not sharp in Arizona Sunday.  This week’s game at home versus Los Angeles will be another stiff test.  The Rams have a strong defense and will keep the pressure on the young passer.  Also, the loss of Doug Martin may be larger than most expect.   

Russell Wilson

  • Top 200 ranking: 5
  • Weekly ranking: 14
  • Difference: -9

This ranking is a combination of Wilson’s injured ankle and game script while playing a division opponent, San Francisco.  No, the 49ers defense is not overly strong, but this game could get out of hand and allow the Seahawks to run the ball frequently to keep the star passer from getting injured further.  Add in the injuries to Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett, and it is easy to see how Seattle would want to pound the rock this week.

Running Back

Carlos Hyde

  • Top 200 ranking: 14
  • Weekly ranking: 39
  • Difference: -25

Hyde was ineffective last week against Carolina and the middling San Francisco offense will struggle to move the ball versus the Seahawks.  We do not like his chances to have a big game against the hungry Seattle defense this week.  The game is in the Pacific Northwest against a team coming off a loss to Los Angeles.  The game could get out of hand early, forcing the 49ers to abandon the run.

Todd Gurley

  • Top 200 ranking: 10
  • Weekly ranking: 18
  • Difference: -8

Coming off a miserable outing against the 49ers, Gurley, and the Rams travel to Tampa Bay this week.  The pitiful quarterback play inhibits the running lanes for the superstar ball carrier.  We still like his year-long upside but are afraid this could be another frustrating week for fantasy owners.  This looks to be a very low-scoring game without much scoring, further limiting Gurley’s upside without many scoring opportunities.

Jeremy Hill

  • Top 200 ranking: 21
  • Weekly ranking: 37
  • Difference: -16

The Bengals running game has been putrid to begin the season.  Hill has not been elusive and the Cincinnati offensive line has opened few holes.  The game against the Denver Broncos defense this week will be tough sledding.  In addition, the game script will likely work against Hill if the Bengals get behind. 

Wide Receiver

Brandon Marshall

  • Top 200 ranking: 13
  • Weekly ranking: 31
  • Difference: -18

Even after announcing that he would be “fine” Marshall looks very questionable for the game in Kansas City this week.  Returning from a knee injury and facing a tough defense on the road are great reasons to temper expectations for the star pass catcher. 

Dez Bryant

  • Top 200 ranking: 10
  • Weekly ranking: 35
  • Difference: -25

Bryant was able to finally see Texas-sized targets against Washington Sunday.  We do not expect him to have a big game against the depleted Chicago Bears defense.  We fully expect coach John Fox to have his troops ready for a strong game on defense.  This looks like a low-scoring contest.

A.J. Green

  • Top 200 ranking: 4
  • Weekly ranking: 13
  • Difference: -9

Green has been the beneficiary of the pass-happy Cincinnati offense.  We expect him to have a big season.  The matchup against the very good Denver cornerbacks should be a good one.  We do not like Green’s chances of breaking off many big plays.  A healthy Green should be an every-week starter for fantasy owners.  But, this week expectations should be lowered.

Tight End

Jason Kelce

  • Top 200 ranking: 4
  • Weekly ranking: 7
  • Difference: -3

As one of just two threats in the Chiefs offense, we expect the Jets coaching staff to give the athletic Kelce extra attention.  New York limited Charles Clay last week and will want to slow Kelce.  No, you should not bench him, just do not expect a huge fantasy outburst against a Jets defense that had a couple of extra days off to rest and prepare.

Zach Miller

  • Top 200 ranking: 18
  • Weekly ranking: 25
  • Difference: -7

Miller is athletic and able to make plays after the catch.  The combination of Jay Cutler’s hand injury and the short week traveling to Dallas are enough for us to move Miller down a few spots this week.  The weekly ranking would look much worse if several of the injured fantasy starters were able to play (e.g., Eifert, Gronkowski, Ertz, etc.).

Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback.  Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.