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Overvalued Players: Week 14

A comparison of the weekly positional rankings and the Top 200, this is an output of the players who could have unexpected poor fantasy weeks.

This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. A negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Each of these is from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, the matchup of the week, or short-term situation.  Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players. 

Quarterback

Marcus Mariota

  • Top 200 ranking: 2
  • Weekly ranking: 22
  • Difference: -20

The Titans are coming off a bye week and host the Broncos in what should be a great game for fans.  Denver has the secondary to limit the fantasy upside of the young passer.  The Broncos are tops in the NFL at limiting fantasy numbers to opposing quarterbacks.  With the bye weeks now over, there are several better options for most fantasy owners. 

Tom Brady

  • Top 200 ranking: 7
  • Weekly ranking: 15
  • Difference: -8

Brady has played very well since returning from suspension.  The loss of Rob Gronkowski should not be underestimated by fantasy owners.  The star tight end allowed Brady to have a high ceiling most weeks.  He was the red-zone threat.  His loss pushed Brady down to QB7 in the Top 200.  The game against the Ravens this week will be a defensive struggle.  Baltimore has a quality defense and should be prepared for Brady and New England. 

Running Back

Thomas Rawls

  • Top 200 ranking: 14
  • Weekly ranking: 23
  • Difference: -9

Rawls was awesome in the lopsided victory over Carolina.  He was dominant.  The game in Green Bay this week will not be as accommodating for fantasy success.  The Packers only give up an average of 20.47 PPR fantasy points to opposing running games.  This is good for sixth-best in the league.  Green Bay is weak in the secondary so we expect Seattle – and quarterback Russell Wilson – to throw often to expose the Packers’ lack of talent and depth at the cornerback position. 

Devonta Freeman

  • Top 200 ranking: 8
  • Weekly ranking: 14
  • Difference: -6

Freeman’s two short scores saved his fantasy owners last week.  The Falcons travel to Los Angeles to meet the Rams this week.  Los Angeles has an average run defense.  We like Freeman’s upside when playing at him much more than on the road.  Also, the status of Julio Jones may influence how much attention Freeman received from the Rams. 

Doug Martin

  • Top 200 ranking: 21
  • Weekly ranking: 31
  • Difference: -10

Martin has led the Buccaneers in rushing since returning from the hamstring injury.  He was nicked up last week and was replaced in the contest by Jacquizz Rodgers.  Rodgers is now back from injury himself and will likely split carries against New Orleans, especially if Martin is limited. 

Wide Receiver

T.Y. Hilton

  • Top 200 ranking: 10
  • Weekly ranking: 17
  • Difference: -7

Hilton lit up Revis and the Jets secondary Monday night.  We do not foresee him having the same success against the Texans pass defense.  Houston is the third-best defense in holding opposing wide receivers in check.  The game will be a tight one with the loser likely out of playoff contention. 

Dez Bryant

  • Top 200 ranking: 8
  • Weekly ranking: 13
  • Difference: -5

The mercurial pass catcher has been able to find the end zone often the past few weeks, something which has made up for the lack of pass targets.  Dallas does not throw often and will not force the ball to Bryant.  The game against division-rival New York Giants will be a stiff test for the Cowboys passing game.  The Giants have very good cornerbacks – especially Janoris Jenkins

Rishard Matthews

  • Top 200 ranking: 16
  • Weekly ranking: 29
  • Difference: -13

Matthews has emerged to become the top wide-receiver target for Marcus Mariota.  These two connect regularly in the red zone.  The game against the Broncos elite secondary should be a tough test for Matthews.  Tennessee is likely to run the ball often, exploiting the Denver front seven instead of test Aqib Talib and Chris Harris

Tight End

Ladarius Green

  • Top 200 ranking: 5
  • Weekly ranking: 15
  • Difference: -10

Green had his coming out party last week against the Giants.  New York had the secondary to defend Pittsburgh’s wideouts, but could not contain Green.  The Giants are the 20th best defense against tight ends.  The Bills are in the top one-third against the position.  Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell should have big games in Buffalo. 

Antonio Gates

  • Top 200 ranking: 9
  • Weekly ranking: 18
  • Difference: -9

Gates has been splitting time with rookie Hunter Henry.  The game against the Panthers should be a better matchup for the wide receivers than for the tight ends.  Gates is slowing down with age. 

Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback.  Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.