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Overvalued Players: Week 13

A comparison of the weekly positional rankings and the Top 200, this is an output of the players who could have unexpected poor fantasy weeks.

This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. A negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Each of these is from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, the matchup of the week, or short-term situation.  Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players. 

Quarterback

Dak Prescott

  • Top 200 ranking: 11
  • Weekly ranking: 17
  • Difference: -6

The Cowboys quarterback leads his team north to Minnesota to face the Vikings this week.  Minnesota has a great defense, which is aided by having a great defensive coordinator as a head coach.  The Vikings are the third-best defense in limiting fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.  There is no denying how well the rookie passer has played this season.  He has been impressive.  There will be better matchups in the coming week. 

Kirk Cousins

  • Top 200 ranking: 5
  • Weekly ranking: 11
  • Difference: -6

Cousins has played very well in his franchise-tag season.  He has put up big enough statistics that Washington will be compelled to keep him long-term.  This week, he leads his troops to Arizona to face the Cardinals.  Arizona has a quality defense, even though the offense is floundering … especially at the quarterback position.  The Cardinals are fourth-best squad at defending the quarterback position.  This is much worst of a matchup than box score watchers would guess by looking at the Atlanta/Arizona statistics from last week.  The Falcons hit on a couple of short passes to Taylor Gabriel who took the ball to the endzone. 

Running Back

Jay Ajayi

  • Top 200 ranking: 10
  • Weekly ranking: 18
  • Difference: -8

Ajayi had a monster stretch earlier in the season.  But, the injuries to the Dolphins offensive line have limited the tailback’s upside.  The game in Baltimore against the stout Ravens rush defense will be a great test for the young running back.  Baltimore is the second-best defense in holding running backs in check.  The Ravens have limited the last few running attacks to lower-than-expected numbers.  We expect this to continue.

Devonta Freeman

  • Top 200 ranking: 6
  • Weekly ranking: 14
  • Difference: -8

Freeman is coming off a tough game against the Cardinals last week.  The going does not get easier as the Chiefs come to Atlanta this week.  Kansas City held the Denver running game in check last week.  Having a healthy Justin Houston back in the lineup will only make a tough matchup more difficult for the Falcons running game.  Even with the injuries, the Chiefs are the eight-best defense in limiting numbers to opposing tailbacks. 

Frank Gore

  • Top 200 ranking: 7
  • Weekly ranking: 15
  • Difference: -8

Gore and the Colts offense plays much better at home in the dome than on the road outside in the weather conditions.  The game this week is at the New York Jets.  The Jets have a solid rush defense put a porous pass defense.  In fact, New York is the sixth-worst matchup for opposing running backs.  He still makes a solid fantasy RB2, but one without much upside.

Wide Receiver

T.Y. Hilton

  • Top 200 ranking: 7
  • Weekly ranking: 17
  • Difference: -10

With Indianapolis playing in New York this week, we wonder if the December weather will play a role.  Many of Hilton’s big games come at home, not outside on a windy, chilly day.  The good news is that New York has a horrible secondary.  Also, keep an eye on his back injury sustained during the Thanksgiving game against Pittsburgh. 

Dez Bryant

  • Top 200 ranking: 6
  • Weekly ranking: 15
  • Difference: -9

We do not like the chances of Bryant having a huge game against the Vikings on the road in Minnesota.  The Vikings are second-best pass defense at limiting wide receiver production.  In addition, the star pass catcher does not see as many pass targets with Dak Prescott under center as he did with Tony Romo.  So, a tough matchup makes us doubtful that Bryant can have a huge fantasy game.    

Doug Baldwin

  • Top 200 ranking: 8
  • Weekly ranking: 14
  • Difference: -6

Baldwin has been on fire of late, just like the second half of the 2015 season.  The Seahawks host the Panthers this week.  Yes, the Carolina pass defense is not as strong as the run defense.  But, this game looks like a low-scoring affair.  In addition, the poor play of Russell Wilson last week gives us pause for this contest. 

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski

  • Top 200 ranking: 5
  • Weekly ranking: 10
  • Difference: -5

The Patriots host the Rams this week.  The elite tight end hurt his back last week and is iffy to play.  With a lop-sided game expected, Gronkowski is unlikely to play much, if at all. 

Tyler Eifert

  • Top 200 ranking: 3
  • Weekly ranking: 5
  • Difference: -2

The Bengals host the Eagles this week.  Every tight end opposing Philadelphia each week shows up on this list.  Why?  The Eagles are a defense which has excelled in defending the tight end position.  Through eleven games, Philadelphia has given up only 77.20 PPR fantasy points which translates to just 7.02 PPR points per game.

Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback.  Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.