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Overvalued Players: Week 12

A comparison of the weekly positional rankings and the Top 200, this is an output of the players who could have unexpected poor fantasy weeks.

This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. A negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Each of these is from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, the matchup of the week, or short-term situation.  Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players. 

Quarterback

Philip Rivers

  • Top 200 ranking: 11
  • Weekly ranking: 23
  • Difference: -12

Rivers and the Chargers travel to Houston to face the Texans this week.  While those looking at just the stats would think that Derek Carr had a big game on Monday night, but the Raiders offense struggled for most of the Monday night contest.  Houston is the fifth-best defense at keeping the opposing fantasy quarterback under wraps.  The numerous injuries to the San Diego skill position players only limit Rivers’ fantasy upside. 

Matt Ryan

  • Top 200 ranking: 2
  • Weekly ranking: 9
  • Difference: -7

Ryan and his Falcons teammates host the Cardinals this week.  Arizona will match Patrick Peterson on Julio Jones, and could inhibit the veteran quarterback’s chances of a big game.  The Cardinals defense is the third-best in the NFL at limiting fantasy points to opposing passers.  While Ryan has a chance for a solid fantasy QB1 day, the upside is limited in the contest. 

Running Back

Jeremy Hill

  • Top 200 ranking: 13
  • Weekly ranking: 28
  • Difference: -15

With Giovani Bernard gone for the season, fantasy owners are hopeful that Hill can finally get back on track.  The game this week may not be the week with the banged-up Bengals traveling to Baltimore to face the Ravens.  Baltimore is a very good run defense, holding opposing running games to 18.87 PPR fantasy points.  This is good for the third-best in the NFL.  A.J. Green is out of the game, too, so the Ravens will be able to focus on slowing down the Cincinnati running game. 

Devonta Freeman

  • Top 200 ranking: 7
  • Weekly ranking: 11
  • Difference: -4

Both Freeman and Tevin Coleman have a difficult matchup against the Arizona Cardinals rush defense.  Arizona is leading the NFL in holding opposing running backs in check.  The Cardinals give up an average of 16.42 PPR points to opposing running back corps.  This represents an average of a full 2 PPR points per game better than the second-best rush defense, the Miami Dolphins.  The game will be a big test for the Atlanta run-game offense. 

Doug Martin

  • Top 200 ranking: 14
  • Weekly ranking: 23
  • Difference: -9

Martin has not been able to break off big runs since returning from his hamstring injury.  The game against the Seattle Seahawks this week will yield few big-play opportunities for the stout ball carrier.  The Seattle defense has been playing well of late and could jump out to an early lead, limiting Martin’s carries. 

Wide Receiver

Brandin Cooks

  • Top 200 ranking: 10
  • Weekly ranking: 22
  • Difference: -12

Cooks has been inconsistent this season.  The speedy receiver has only topped 19 PPR fantasy points twice, both huge outings over 30 PPR points.  The game against the Rams this week could be a lower-scoring affair with few big plays.  We project all three New Orleans pass catchers to score about the same in PPR leagues.  

Dez Bryant

  • Top 200 ranking: 9
  • Weekly ranking: 14
  • Difference: -5

Bryant looks to finally be healthy and has a great rapport with quarterback Dak Prescott.  The Thanksgiving Day game against Washington will be a big test for Bryant.  Cornerback Josh Norman will shadow the star receiver for most of the game.  The game will be a big test for both teams, and their playoff hopes.  Can Dallas win even if Bryant does not have a big game?  Can Washington pull off the upset and give the Cowboys their first loss since Week 1.  Should be a good game. 

Mike Evans

  • Top 200 ranking: 3
  • Weekly ranking: 6
  • Difference: -3

Evans has been the main target for Jameis Winston.  The bad news is that Evans will see a lot of Richard Sherman.  Even when the young receiver is on the other side of the field, the Seahawks will show him plenty of attention.  The good news for Evans’ owners for this week’s game is that the Buccaneers will be behind early in the contest and will throw often just to try to keep pace. 

Tight End

Jared Cook

  • Top 200 ranking: 16
  • Weekly ranking: 25
  • Difference: -9

Cook is coming off a huge outing against Washington and appears to be healthy.  The game against Philadelphia will be a tough test for the veteran tight end.  The Eagles’ opponent frequently shows up on this list.  This is a defense that has given up just 75.5 PPR fantasy points through ten games.  We like other options in the Packers passing game more than we like Cook this week.

Cameron Brate

  • Top 200 ranking: 12
  • Weekly ranking: 18
  • Difference: -6

Like his teammates above, we do not like the matchup for the Tampa Bay offense against the Seattle defense.  Brate has five games with single-digit PPR fantasy points and only two outings with at least 20 PPR fantasy points.  We expect this game to add a sixth single-digit fantasy score for Brate. 

Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback.  Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.